Month: June 2012

With the draft over, the next step in the NBA offseason is the free-agent negotiation period, which begins tomorrow.

With 10 players — and four big contracts — already on the books, the Grizzlies don’t have many roster spots to fill or much money left to fill them with.

Here’s an estimate on where the team stands heading into free agency:

Zach Randolph $16,500,000
Rudy Gay $16,460,532
Marc Gasol $13,891,359
Mike Conley $7,180,000
Tony Allen $3,300,000
Dante Cunningham $2,090,000
Quincy Pondexter $1,234,320
Tony Wroten $1,200,000*
Jeremy Pargo $1,000,000
Josh Selby $762,195

Total: $63,618,406
Projected Tax Line: $70,307,000
Room Under Tax: $6,688,594

Qualifying Offers:

Marreese Speights $3,823,362
Darrell Arthur $3,006,216

*Not only is this salary figure on Wroten an estimate, it also hasn’t been signed yet. The Wroten deal might be done soon, but given how close the team is to the tax line when including those qualifying offers, it seems like there would be a chance Wroten’s deal might be delayed until the team goes through free agency.

It’s possible the team could trade or even buy out Pargo to open up a roster spot, but the later would keep his salary on the books and would actually add to an already tight financial crunch by opening up a roster spot without opening up extra money.

If you assume the Grizzlies will try to keep 14 players and factor in Chris Wallace’s suggestion that the team will pursue a shooter and a veteran point guard in free agency, then it seems likely that the four additional players might include two frontcourt players, a point guard, and a wing shooter.

Crucial to factor in: Based on discussions I had with team officials after the draft, the impression I got is that the team will be open to the prospect of exceeding the luxury tax to begin the season, and therefore will consider using their mid-level exception to pursue a shooter and/or point guard. [And since I wrote this, but just before I was set to post, Michael Heisley has now gone on the record to confirm the team’s willingness to use exceptions and exceed the tax.]

A few tidbits I’ve picked up today in the aftermath of last night’s draft. I’ll have a fuller offseason speculation post up sometime this weekend.

*The Grizzlies extended qualifying offers to Marreese Speights ($3.8 million) and Darrell Arthur ($3 million) today, making them restricted free agents, but declined to do so for O.J. Mayo and Lester Hudson, making them unrestricted. No real surprises. The team seems committed to bringing back either Arthur or Speights, and could bring back both depending on how free agency pans out. More likely is that one of the pair will be retained, along with unrestricted free-agent center Hamed Haddadi. Mayo’s qualifying offer ($7.3 million) was simply too big given the team’s luxury tax situation. It’s theoretically possible Mayo could be brought back at a lower figure or used in a sign-and-trade deal, but both of those seem very unlikely. As for Hudson, he could still be brought back at a minimum-type contract, but I suspect any additional backcourt signings would have to have either defined point-guard skills or a more reliable three-point stroke.

*Vanderbilt shooter John Jenkins, who went a couple of picks before the Grizzlies, would have been considered at #25 but likely would not have been the pick. Perry Jones III, the draft’s biggest dropper, who went to Oklahoma City at #28, was not seriously considered. The most talked about options in addition to ultimate pick Tony Wroten Jr. seem to have been point guard Marquis Teague and forward Draymond Green. My understanding is that Green was the runner-up at #25.