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Opinion

School Board Endorses Sales Tax Hike, National Search for Superintendent

Kriner Cash

  • Kriner Cash

The Unified Shelby County School Board has trouble voting on matters within its control, but did agree on Tuesday to tell citizens to vote for the referendum calling for a half-cent increase in the sales tax.

The vote was 14 to 6, with one abstention. It came near the end of a five-hour meeting during which the board also voted 15-6 to conduct a national search for a superintendent.

The majority of board members felt that the sales tax increase, while regressive, would raise $62 million, of which $31 million would go to schools.

“This benefits all children regardless of where they live,” said Martavius Jones.

The superintendent search vote came after an amendment changing the search from national to local (effectively handing the job to John Aitken, superintendent of the current Shelby County school system) failed.

“I’m sitting here wondering how anyone in their right mind would want to come to work for us 23 board members,” said David Reaves. He noted that the board took 90 minutes to approve a resolution on merger strategy and timeline after questioning whether it gave the administration too much power.

The timeline calls for a key meeting on November 15th about Transition Planning Commission recommendations. Additional meetings will be held in November, and members predicted they will last several hours and possibly draw thousands of spectators.

“This is a whole lot of work,” said MCS Superintendent Kriner Cash. “There’s never been a merger like this in the history of anything.”

Cash also said, “We are going to have to get down and dirty with this, and that dirt is coming real soon.”

The basic problem is that the board is divided between urban and suburban interests, the suburban representatives don’t trust the Shelby County Commission, several board members don’t trust the administration, and several more members from both camps don’t trust the Transition Planning Commission and the outside interests working behind the scene through foundations, nonprofits, the state Department of Education, and the group Stand For Children.

In a sign of divisions and votes to come, the auditorium was filled with members of AFSCME, the Memphis Education Association, and supporters of the CLUE program in MCS for “gifted” children. They carried signs saying “Keep CLUE,” “No Lottery For Optional Schools,” and “Stop Rich Folks making $ from public education and creating low-wage workers.” Among the TPC recommendations is a lottery for some spaces in optional schools. Slots now go on a first-come, first-served basis. CLUE, heavily supported by parents from Grahamwood Elementary School and a few of their children who also spoke, is often under the gun at budget time. The “rich folks” reference was apparently to operators of charter schools.

Categories
News

Memphis’ Pit Bull People

The Memphis and Shelby County Humane Society has begun a campaign to help deal with the over-supply of pit bulls. Bianca Phillips has the story.

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News

Lies, Damn Lies, and Polls

Bruce VanWyngarden has some thoughts about the political polls.

Categories
Opinion The BruceV Blog

What Presidential Polls Should You Trust?

I’ve noticed a recurring conversation among some MemphisFlyer.com commenters about presidential polls. I’m here to tell you there are lies, damned lies, and polls. And if you put all your argumentative eggs in one poll’s basket, you’re liable to end up with yolk on your face when November 7th comes around.

The first thing to remember is that not all polls are created equal, or, more accurately stated, their methodologies are vary widely. Some polls, for example, use recorded messages via auto-dial, which means they can’t call cellphones. These polls have to make a lot more phone calls to get a decent sample size, since most people hang up as soon as they hear a recorded message.

Some polls are conducted online. Some polls use real live people making real live phone calls. So how do you know which polls to trust? You don’t. That’s why smart commenters and armchair pundits use a polling aggregator, a website that polls the polls, adjusts for variances of sample size and historic tendencies, and publishes an average of all the polls.

There are number of good sites to check out. My favorite is fivethirtyeight.com, Nate Silver’s nerderiffic blog that offers more polls and poll analyses than you can shake a cellphone at. Silver was on the money with the electoral results in 2008 as an independent blogger. The New York Times then hired him to do the same schtick for its website. Highly recommended info on not just the results, but also the methodology of polling.

Another good aggregator site is RealClearPolitics. RCP is seen by many as leaning GOP, but that, IMO, is primarily because they call lots of states “tossups” that other aggregator sites put in one or the other candidates’ column. Silver, for instance, only has seven states that he considers still to be tossups. RCP has 11 such states, including several deemed by most polls to be in Obama’s column: Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, to name three. However, in 2008, RCP came the closest of any polling organization to the actual national popular vote percentages for McCain and Obama, so I don’t discount them.

One thing almost all aggregator sites will make obvious by their comparisons is that Gallup’s national popular vote survey is an outlier — way out of line with almost every other poll’s results. That said, putting any stock in any national popular vote poll is a sucker’s bet. The only numbers that matter are the Electoral College totals. And at this point, the only states that matter are the tossups, however you define them. Most aggregators have Obama ahead in the majority of swing states, and one or two points behind in the national popular vote. Which is much better for him than the other way around.

If you look hard enough, you can eventually find an aggregator that will make you feel good about your candidate’s chances. For example, when I’m feeling a little discouraged, I just go here. I call it my “happy place.” It’ll have to do until November 7th.

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Sing All Kinds We Recommend

Sound Advice: Blair Combest and the Quitters, Water Liars, and Mission South

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  • Laura Dacus

This Thursday night (November 1), Murphy’s will host a dynamic triple bill pairing two up-and-coming acts from out of town along with a local scene veteran fronting an brand new combo.

St. Louis, MO/Oxford, MS indie duo Water Liars will serve as the evening’s headliners. The band is currently touring behind a solid debut LP Phantom Limb, which was released earlier this year by Misra Records. Here is video of Water Liars performing live at Ardent Studios:

For more on Water Liars, see Stephen Deusner’s feature story from earlier this month.

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News News Blog

Local Humane Society Launches “Pit Bull People” Campaign

Just in time for Pit Bull Awareness Day (which was October 27th), the Humane Society of Memphis and Shelby County released a series of photographs of local families with their pit bull pets.

“Our community is overrun with pit bull-type dogs who desperately need homes, and the truly upsetting fact is that many adopters will not even consider these dogs because of the many myths and discriminatory propaganda surrounding them,” said Alexis Amorose, executive director of the Humane Society. “What we wanted to do here is show potential adopters, not to mention other parties like landlords and lawmakers, that pit bull-type dogs make excellent, loving additions to countless upstanding, responsible families.”

The Flyer picked our favorite three photos from the series to share with readers.

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Memphis Gaydar News

Monthly “Cherry” Party to Feature Burlesque Show

This month’s installment of “Cherry … a lezzie shindig” features a mini-burlesque show by Kitty Wompas. The party takes place at Cafe Society on Friday, November 2nd at 9 p.m.

Also planned are free palm and tarot readings, desserts by Le Cordon Bleu trained chef Cullen Kent, and drink specials. And as always, the event is hosted by singer/comedian Julie Wheeler. Cover charge is $5.

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News

2012-2013 Complete NBA Preview

Chris Herrington’s annual — and very comprehensive — NBA preview is now available.

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Art Exhibit M

Halloween Night Reception for Ramona Sonin’s “Tart” at Wrong Again

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The Wrong Again Gallery will close its second season Halloween night, Wednesday, October 31, 8-10 p.m. with TART by Ramona Sonin. (Be sure to dress warm. The show is inside but the garage door will be open.)

Sonin currently lives in Venice, California, where she maintains her studio and teaches at the CA Institute of Art. She received her MFA from the University of Memphis in 1998. She was kind enough to answer of couple of questions of mine via email. Here is that exchange.

Dwayne Butcher: There is a close similarity between the figures in this work and you. Would you consider these self-portraits? Or were you simply the first model available when working on these pieces?
Ramona Sonin: I love this question… Yes, I was the only one around when I was trying to contort my body in the mirror for exaggerated poses. (I have hurt my back on several occasions and fallen off of my Louboutins.) But, of course I can not deny that parts of me are in my girls….but they are SO much more than me…look at that hair! If only I could get mine to those heights! If only I could afford their clothing and walk languidly down the street in those shoes and carrying those firearms.

Categories
Beyond the Arc Sports

NBA Predictions 2012-2013

The race for the Larry Obrien Trophy begins tonight.

  • The race for the Larry O’brien Trophy begins tonight.

The Grizzlies begin their season tomorrow night in Los Angeles, but the NBA proper tips off tonight with a three-game slate.

We’ll get back into the Grizzlies specifically tomorrow, but for now it’s once again time to go on the record with how I see the whole league shaking out this season.

I did over-under predictions on all 30 teams last week on The Chris Vernon Show, alongside Verno, producer Jon Roser, and Grizzlies radio play-by-play man Eric Hasseltine. Even though circumstances have changed for a few teams and my opinions have shifted on a few others, I’m including those over-under picks here as is for the sake of posterity.

On with the predictions, conference picks separated into tiers:

EASTERN CONFERENCE

1. Miami Heat (61.5 — OVER)
After the breakthrough comes the victory lap. I think Lebron James is about to run wild over the whole league.

2. Boston Celtics (50.5 — OVER)
I know, they were a 48-win equivalent team last season and now Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett are another year older. And they’re totally focused on a post-season rematch with Miami. But I think they got younger and deeper around a still-elite three-man core and the best coach in the conference. And I think they’re hungry. A 55-win team.

3. Indiana Pacers (50.5 — UNDER)
4. Atlanta Hawks (43 — OVER)
5. Brooklyn Nets (46 — UNDER)

I see all these teams in the 44-50 win range. The Pacers were unusually healthy last season and are already seeing warning signs on that front from top scorer Danny Granger. I think their offseason moves to shake up their bench were lateral at best. “Lateral at best” is how I see their season.

The Hawks are my Eastern sleeper team. They lost Joe Johnson and Marvin Williams — which will hurt their wing defense more than anything — but made up for it by loading up on ballhandlers (Jeff Teague, Devin Harris, Lou Williams) and shooters (Anthony Morrow, Kyle Korver, Williams) to surround the dynamic frontcourt duo of Josh Smith and a returning-from-injury Al Horford. This should be a fun and surprisingly good team.

In Brooklyn, I love the Deron Williams-Joe Johnson backcourt, but don’t love the defense and depth. But they’ll win the All-City title and fight for homecourt in the first round. This was one of the tougher over/under calls for me.