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New Virus Cases Swell Above 300 Again

COVID-19 Memphis
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New Virus Cases Swell Above 300 Again

Test results reported Wednesday morning showed 302 new cases of COVID-19 in Shelby County, a return to elevated numbers from last week.

The latest weekly data available shows 12.5 percent of all tests were positive for the week of June 21st, an increase over the 10.3 percent of positive test reported the week before. The weekly average positivity rate has grown steadily since the 4 percent rate recorded for the week of May 4th, just as the county’s economy began to reopen.

The county’s overall average positive rate for COVID-19 has rose again to 8.6 percent on all test results reported since the virus arrived here in March. The total number of COVID-19 cases here stands at 12,467. The death toll rose by two on Wednesday in Shelby County and now stands at 202.

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Letter From The Editor Opinion

Whoa, Nelly!

“Dr. [Manoj] Jain … provided his estimates on cases and hospitalizations thru December and believes we will see an average of 230 daily new cases and a 240 daily hospital average in July; 360 and 360 in August; 500 and 550 in September; 620 and 700 in October; 670 and 780 in November; and 620 and 740 in December.”

This is from a media briefing I received on July 3rd on the Shelby County COVID-19 situation. To say it is sobering is an understatement. If these numbers are anywhere near on-target, it’s clear that we will be dealing with this nightmare of a pandemic well into 2021, with around 95,000 cases in Shelby County by year’s end. All the blue-sky talk about schools opening and football and basketball seasons beginning looks a little sketchy right now. We are already matching Dr. Jain’s projected July numbers and then some, hitting 400 new cases on some days.

New Jersey State Police

In early May, after several weeks of a “stay at home” mandate, Shelby County’s infection rate dropped to 4 percent and its new case numbers were leveled off. We flattened the curve. Now, two months later, the infection rate is consistently over 10 percent — and rising steadily, week over week. We got the horse into the barn for a little while, then we opened the door and said “Please don’t go into the pasture, Nelly.” That policy of hoping for self-restraint has been an epic failure. Mainly because too many Americans resemble the back-end of a horse, including our president.

It’s not like there isn’t a blueprint for how to stop this thing. Most countries figured it out and are now getting back to normal life, while in the U.S. we’re looking at another six months of pandemic. In New York and New Jersey, state leaders, led by Governor Anthony Cuomo, also figured it out: Test as much as possible, lock down everything, trace every infection, keep the public informed with daily briefings. Even so, New York was filling truck trailers with bodies and turning non-COVID patients away from hospitals before it got the disease under control. Most New Yorkers are still wearing masks. They learned their lesson.

Unfortunately, there is no Governor Cuomo in sight below the Mason-Dixon line. Hospitals are already near or at capacity in large areas of Texas, with infection rates climbing every day. Houston, the nation’s fourth-largest city, is about to look like New York did in March. Florida’s infection rates and death totals are surging, with many more to come. Meanwhile, here in Tennessee, Governor Bill Lee stands on the capitol steps shouting, “Nelly, come home!” as the state he “leads” lurches into the top 10 of infection rates nationwide.

In 1992, Democratic strategist James Carville coined the phrase, “It’s the economy, stupid,” while managing Bill Clinton’s campaign against George Bush the Elder. Bush had led the country in a brief but popular invasion of Kuwait, and his popularity stood at 90 percent afterward. Then the economy slipped, all other issues faded in importance, and Clinton took the presidency — though it didn’t hurt that mavericky Ross Perot siphoned off some GOP voters from Bush.

Now, almost 30 years later, the American economy is a dumpster fire, due almost entirely to the pandemic. It simply won’t recover unless this disease gets put back in the barn. The two are inextricably interlocked. Statues are a diversion. Antifa is a diversion. “Riots” are a diversion. “Leftist protestors” are a diversion. Donald Trump’s racist tweets and daily incoherence are a diversion.

It’s the pandemic, stupid.

Nothing gets back to “normal” until we beat this thing. If, instead of raging about statues while standing beneath Mt. Rushmore, the president had made a simple plea for all Americans to wear masks, he would have saved countless lives in coming weeks — and, ironically, likely improved his election chances.

Investment firm Goldman Sachs just released a study showing that a national mask mandate would raise the number of people who wear masks by 15 percent and would lower the infection rate nationwide to .6 percent. This is no bleeding-heart liberal dogma. Goldman Sachs is advocating a mask mandate for purely capitalistic reasons: It would prevent the country from having to shut down the economy again. Goldman Sachs says masks are good for business.

As has been made abundantly clear, there will be no national leadership on the COVID front. States and cities are on their own. You and I and our friends and family are on our own. Mask up. Our health — and our economy — depends on it.

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We Recommend We Recommend

Lucero Streams Live from Minglewood

While the city was on lockdown, local Americana band Lucero finished recording a new album at Sam Phillips Recording Studio.

“We all wore masks, everybody stayed out of the way and everything,” says Brian Venable, the band’s guitarist. “But it was interesting. First or second night in, not only was there COVID, but the protests started happening and you couldn’t go out after 10. There was a whole lot of stuff going on in the world.”

Fans might be able to hear a couple of songs from the new album this Saturday during Lucero’s first live-streamed concert (recorded from Minglewood Hall) since they last toured together in February. Venable says the band agreed that they preferred this method of streaming over other methods they’ve seen musical artists use.

Dan Ball

Lucero

“Jason Isbell supposedly did that thing where everybody Zooms from their different houses and plays music together,” he says. “That sounds logistically like a nightmare. I go online mostly every night for an hour on Instagram and read. I’ve read four books aloud. There’s a Brian Venable Book Club now. I was like, man, I’m so tired of white, bearded, tattooed guys singing about girls on the internet.”

Venable adds, “There’s something about playing in your living room, but there’s also something about pay-per-view events where there’s lights and good sound and there’s a possibility of hearing new songs or making requests.”

Venable says, if everything goes according to plan, Lucero will play their annual Family Block Party in September. Until then, however, Venable says he hopes that this live stream will provide an authentic “MTV-like” experience for viewers.

“Tune in. Have fun. We’re Lucero,” he says. “Somebody is gonna be drunk, somebody’s gonna mess up, someone’s gonna have fun. Those three things are guaranteed.”

lucero.veeps.com, Saturday, July 11th, 9 p.m.-midnight; $10 for general admission; $50 for VIP, which includes T-shirt and signed screenprint poster.

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Opinion The Last Word

Back to Business? The Crumbling Foundations of the Service Industry

A few days ago, Packed House Productions closed their restaurant and bar locations (Slider Inn, Aldo’s, Bardog, etc.) due to a staff member testing positive for COVID-19. They did the responsible thing, which was to shut down temporarily, and I think we can all find some relief there. This isn’t by any means a derogatory analysis of PHP; they are simply Exhibit A on the long road to non-recovery (thus far) in the fight against the current pandemic in the restaurant industry.

COVID-19 is a real and growing problem, as Shelby County’s infection rate numbers continue to increase to levels well above those seen in April and May. As we watch the numbers grow, we also watch some of these small businesses, the backbone of the American economy, continue with back-to-business plans that are put in place at the expense of their front- and back-of-house workers. In response to these concerns, one hears about the required-mask ordinance, the cleaning and safety protocols these businesses have put into place, and how people are “choosing” to come back to work. Unfortunately, too often, these are empty gestures and unimaginative solutions.

Alla Kostomarova | Dreamstime.com

The mask ordinance is a necessary precaution but becomes null when applied to dining or drinking indoors — activities that pose the greatest risk of infection. The safety protocols businesses attempt to enforce, such as low occupancy or six-foot-distance seating, simply don’t work. Customers will slip up or ignore them, and violations immediately slip through the cracks.

After the virus has dealt such a devastating blow to their revenue, it is quite naturally in the interest of businesses to make as much money as quickly as possible in order to recover. The safety protocols hinder businesses’ ability to do that, so often protocols are not enforced by managers who care more about saving their business than keeping their employees safe.

Many of the people who are “choosing” to go back to work do not want to be there. While they wear the required PPE, they have to deal with customers who don’t and who have little regard for workers’ safety. Most servers make $2.13/hour plus tips or minimum wage ($7.25/hour) with no benefits, insurance, or protection. The public is expected to pay workers’ bills through tipping, meaning, it’s up to customers to choose whether or not to pay workers.

I write these thoughts not because I want to see small (and some not-so-small) local businesses go under. Business owners are people, too, and have their own dreams and goals, and none of those should be diminished. But we don’t seem to worry as much about their workers’ dreams. What of their goals? What of their lives? What of their experiences? What of their health?

What does it say about our “backbone” when employees are saying, “Hey! This isn’t safe! We don’t feel cared for!” As employees organize and begin to ask questions about continued pay during another shutdown, or ask to be included in meetings about reopening, managers and owners often turn a blind eye — it’s a problem. When businesses make PR posts about how responsible they are but refuse to be transparent about how they will be caring for their lowest-tier employees, it’s a problem. When workers share their stories and experiences, only to have their bosses say they are petulant, choose to “agree to disagree,” or worse, fire them, it’s a problem. When businesses tell their FOH employees that they are “family” then decide not to listen to their family’s needs or concerns about their safety, it’s a problem.

In the restaurant-worker community, we call out local businesses because it is our responsibility to look out for one another. Why have servers and bartenders been so reticent to share their experiences and concerns during this time? They are terrified to lose their jobs for speaking out, for sticking up for themselves or each other. We as the community want safety for our friends, loved ones, and fellow workers. It simply cannot continue this way.

Between COVID-19 and the current rallying of the Black Lives Matter movement, I’ve seen this community come together in ways I never thought possible. I have seen struggle, hardship, sadness, and trauma in the communities of workers, BIPOC, and LGBTQ individuals. I also see so much love, caregiving, willingness to learn, accountability, transparency, and growth in these communities. Businesses that exploit labor aren’t what define this country. The people — the workers, the activists, the artists, the community care-givers — are the real backbone of this country.

To all my friends and to the people I don’t know who are back at work: I see you. I hear you. We all do. Know that your experiences are valid, and not only do you deserve to be treated better, but it is your human right to be treated better. Never forget you have the strength of community behind you.

Chase Baltz is a Memphis activist and artist, and has worked in the service industry for 14 years.

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News The Fly-By

MEMernet: Super Skyline and Know Where to Throw

Just, wow

Posted to Reddit by u/caustin70

Get in the game

You think your recycle game is tight?

Where do paper coffee cups go? How about bricks? How about that plastic clamshell from your lunchtime salad?

Put your skills to the test with an online Know Where to Throw game at the city’s website, memphistn.recycle.game. There, you can battle your way through five solid-waste sorting challenges. Beat a level and you get a virtual prize, like a virtual slide for your virtual playground.

Let’s try one here. Where does your old toilet go? To collection, recycling, garbage, yard waste, bulky waste outside the cart, or to a household hazardous waste facility? Think you know? Head to the game site and find out.

Complete the challenges and get a printable Know Where to Throw certificate of achievement that’s suitable for framing.

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Cover Feature News

Black and Proud

Beyond police brutality and systemic racism, Black people, because of their hairstyles, music of choice, sexual orientation, and culture, often face discrimination, microaggressions, and prejudice in everyday life. Still, a tenacious pride abounds in the Black community. This is the story of five Memphians’ experiences as Black people in America. — Maya Smith

Black and Trans

Five years ago, Kayla Gore was robbed and stabbed in the shoulder with a butcher knife outside of her home in Memphis. With two bloody bath towels wrapped around her hands, which had been ripped open from attempting to grab the knife from her attacker, Gore waited for the police to show up. When they did, the first question the officers asked Gore is if the incident had been related to sex work.

Photographs by Maya Smith

Kayla Gore

“They acted as if I was a suspect instead of the victim,” she says. A week later, Gore found out that the District Attorney would not be pressing charges on the individual who attacked her.

“That was the end of that,” Gore says. “And I know that decision was solely based on me being Black and trans. If I were white and trans, or even just white, they would have prosecuted the case to the fullest extent of the law.”

Gore says this is not an isolated incident for Black trans women in America. “Even when we call the police for protection, the tables can easily turn from us being a victim to a suspect.”

That is just one example of the ways in which trans women of color are treated differently, especially in the South, Gore says. “Being a trans Black woman in the South feels like living in a desert where I don’t have access to a lot of things. It’s a resource desert, a safety desert, a housing desert. This is all because of how I show up with my transness and my Blackness.”

This is the “lived reality” for trans women in the South, Gore says. “I could literally walk out of my house and be killed because I’m Black and because I’m trans. People have their own personal biases about trans folks in the South, so it makes it even more dangerous for us.”

To make matters worse, Gore says there is no trans representation in elected or appointed officials on the local or state level, which makes her community “feel like we don’t have a space or a voice. When we elevate our voices, they’re erased.”

Feeling left out of spaces isn’t new for Gore, who recalls her first adverse experience because of her Blackness and queerness occuring when she was 8 years old. “I went to a very diverse church, but it was predominantly white. That’s when I noticed there was a difference in the way I was treated versus my white counterparts. I would get excluded from summer camps or sleepovers. It could have been because I’m Black or because I was queer, as I was definitely a very queer child.”

After that experience, Gore says her mother had “the talk” with her and she realized “I’m Black, therefore things will be different for me.” But different didn’t have a negative connotation for Gore: “I’ve always been proud of my Blackness because of how I was raised by my mother. I’ve always been super proud of how I show up in the world.” Much of that, she says, is the ability to connect to other people’s Blackness. “I’m fascinated with Black history. It fortified my love for my Blackness.”

It took a little longer for Gore to embrace her queerness though. She says for years she tried to be “stealthy, identifying as a Black gay man.”

But when she transitioned 10 years ago, Gore says she felt “like a whole new person. Pride became more than a day or a month, but a 365-day thing. I’m out and proud every day now. When I show up, people can’t help but see my transness, and I don’t think there’s a better way to show my pride than that.”

That pride led Gore to activism. For 10 years, she’s been advocating for better access and equality for trans women of color. Fully committed to the cause, she’s now the executive director of My Sister’s House, which provides emergency shelter and other resources for trans women of color in Memphis.

Gore’s hope is to make life better for “people like myself,” continuing the work of Black trans women who have come before her. “We have to pick up the baton and keep the marathon going until we reach liberation.”

Black and Preaching

Rev. Earle Fisher has always been going against the grain. When his first grade teacher in Michigan threatened to paddle all of the Black students, Fisher recalls protesting and walking out of the classroom. “I wasn’t going for it then, and I’m not going for it now. I’ve always been critical of racial injustice,” says Fisher, now the senior pastor at Abyssinian Missionary Baptist Church in Whitehaven.

Rev. Earle Fisher

As a Black pastor, Fisher says he’s in a “beautiful and complicated position. It’s beautiful because the Black faith has always been something that sustains Black people throughout history, even in Africa. In the United States, it was the impetus for resistance work that led to abolition, the Black Power movement, and the civil rights movement.”

Fisher says his role is also “complicated,” explaining that religion has historically “been co-opted and used as a tool of manipulation, especially in the white Evangelical strand of Christianity. It’s not always easy to embrace a Black pastor in America and especially in the South.”

This concern was at the forefront of Fisher’s mind one Sunday in 2015 when a white couple showed up to attend his predominantly Black church. Nervously reading over his notes, he questioned whether his prepared message would offend the couple and if he needed to change it for their sake.

“I immediately began to skim over my preaching manuscript in my mind, asking myself, ‘Am I going to say anything offensive to them?’ I know I can be a little edgy and unorthodox in my attempts to articulate the gospel on a grassroots and socially conscious level. I had to think about if I needed to dial it back. Do I need to assimilate to a more moderate conservative theology in my own church?”

Ultimately, Fisher says he stuck with his original manuscript and delivered a message with “unadulterated and unapologetic commitment to Black liberation theology, and they actually loved it. But the point is, how many times do you think a white pastor would question his sermon because of Black visitors?”

Fisher says when you grow up Black in America, “the air you breathe informs you of these social constructs that are a part of our reality. But it’s not a reality I was ever ashamed of.”

Fisher says he’s always been proud to be Black. He shows that on the pulpit, as well as on the streets through activism and grassroots involvement.

“I don’t have to apologize for my heritage or my ethnicity,” he says. “I don’t see it as a negative attribute. I thank God I’m Black. I don’t need to be ashamed about it. There are so many times where my Blackness is affirmed. How can you watch Serena Williams and not be Black and proud? How can you listen to Malcolm or Martin speak? Or how can I be in my house with my family playing spades, listening to the newest album, and not be proud? Just thinking about these moments gets me excited. It’s a beautiful thing.”

Black and in Business

As a college student in the Chicago area, Bartholomew Jones frequented many coffee shops. One thing he noticed about the shops was the lack of people who looked like him in the room.

Bartholomew Jones

“I never had a negative encounter,” he says, “but the whole experience was just white, from the people to the music playing over the speakers. So I just assumed coffee was a white people’s thing.”

That began Jones’ multi-year journey to learn about the history of coffee, which culminated last year when he started CxffeeBlack, a coffee company that seeks to “make coffee Black again.”

In his research, he learned that coffee originated in Ethiopia and was later brought to Europe.

“Black people in America don’t understand our cultural ties to coffee,” he says. “So the question was ‘What’s a way for us to provide more education on the history of coffee and also try to provide a way for more Black people to experience coffee?’ That was the inspiration for starting the company. I wanted Black people to feel like coffee was for them.”

Jones’ years in college opened his eyes to more than the lack of diversity in coffee shops. He also saw firsthand “the reality of how unequal society is.”

At Wheaton College, Jones says there were few other Black students on campus — so much so that he knew most by name. Growing up in Whitehaven, a majority-Black neighborhood, for most of his childhood, he says that was a culture shock.

“I noticed how much the white guys would drink and do drugs and there were never any police around. Meanwhile, I grew up in an overpoliced neighborhood. I got to see how the other side was living and what they could get away with.”

That wasn’t the first time Jones says he was made aware of the difference in the way he and his Black peers were treated. He remembers taking a ride with his mentor, who was white, during his senior year in high school. Jones asked if he could play one of his favorite CDs, a Christian hip-hop album by Lecrae.

“I put the CD in and he was immediately like ‘I have to show you something.’ He took me to the school basement where they keep old tracts and handed me a red pamphlet about types of demonic music, which of course included rap and hip-hop. But the reasoning was because they come from the ‘dark continent of Africa.’ I was speechless.”

Jones says he was aware of racism in a historical context, but not in the form of present-day prejudices. “It didn’t matter how many people were kind to me, they still hated my culture,” he says. “It didn’t matter how smart or nice I was, I was still Black in their eyes. Only if I conform and assimilate to their culture and listen to their type of music, am I then okay.”

Today, Jones fully embraces his Blackness, in part by “providing quality coffee for the ‘hood” and also by protecting and uplifting other Black people.

Jones says the most important part of that role is being the father of two young boys. He and his wife want to ensure their sons are prepared for what they might face as Black men in America, he says.

“We want to give them a new narrative, though. We don’t want our boys to think they are destined to be killed by police officers. We have to give them the tools to protect themselves and overcome obstacles they will encounter as Black men. Most importantly, we teach our kids that they are Black and they should be proud of it.”

Black and Non-Binary

When Mia Saine was in preschool, they were bullied because their skin was darker than their classmates’ and their hair was a different texture.

Mia Saine

“This was the first time I remember any form of discrimination,” they say. “I mean, imagine being a 4-year-old and someone pointing out your features that make you different or implying those features make you not desirable to befriend. It was hard.”

Later, Saine remembers seeing Michael Jackson’s “Thriller” on TV for the first time and recalls that being the earliest moment they were proud of their Blackness.

“I got to see Michael Jackson playing this role as a zombie. He was on TV. It was just so magical. My parents introduced me to a lot of Black music, and I started to feel a sense of pride for our culture.”

Saine, born and raised in Arlington, is an illustrator and graphic designer in Memphis. They are also Black and non-binary, which they say “is a protest itself. Every day I’m going against the so-called normal lifestyle and American Dream. But that just doesn’t represent who I am as a person.”

As a high school student in Arlington and then a college student at Memphis College of Arts, Saine says they had to learn how to navigate predominantly white spaces, but there were times “when I was uncomfortable and just couldn’t relate because I didn’t have certain privileges and opportunities.”

Now, a full-time professional artist, Saine says that discomfort continues. Often in meetings, “I’m the token Black person. There have been times where I’ve been like ‘Oh yeah, this conversation is happening because I’m Black.’ It’s infuriating. However, having been on both sides of the coin, I know how to adapt and code switch.”

As an artist of color, Saine says “every time I present something, it’s over 100 percent, to surpass the expectations for that of a Black person. I feel responsible to represent a whole group of people. Being a non-binary Black artist is an empowering thing for me.”

However, Saine says they “feel obligated to go above and beyond to prove myself worthy in a way I shouldn’t have to. I have to overcompensate so often. But at the same time, I’m the type of person who won’t stand for any kind of discrimination. I don’t want to be seen as the angry Black woman, so I have to figure out how to be diplomatic but still stern.”

Despite the challenges over the years, Saine says they’ve come to love their queerness and Blackness, realizing “I should just love myself for me and advocate for all of my qualities instead of trying to seek approval and forgiveness. I can’t wait around for people to understand me. I have to live my life.”

Saine says they’ve felt more hopeful about the future for Black Americans in the past few weeks, seeing more people “accept the reality of people who are like me, my friends, family, and loved ones. Because we matter so much. We just want to be valued. That’s all.”

Black and Elected

Antonio Parkinson’s dreadlocks were below his ears when he had to cut them in order to keep his job at the Shelby County Fire Department.

Antonio Parkinson

“I started to grow dreadlocks,” he says. “There was no policy in place at the time, but they wrote me up, and when I wouldn’t sign the write-up, they were ready to suspend me. They told me I had to cut them or I’d be fired. So I did, and it made me feel terrible. I felt singled out. They didn’t understand my culture and weren’t trying to at the time.”

Parkinson says hair discrimination is just a drop in the bucket of what he experienced during his 25 years working for the fire department. From racial slurs to attempts to thwart the promotion of him and other Black firefighters, Parkinson says the culture was one of “suppression for people that look like me.”

He thought about walking away several times “when it got ugly, but I’m a fighter so I stayed. I simply looked at it as ‘Why not me?’ Why should your child and family have opportunities and not mine? Why can’t I do something that will create generational wealth for my family?”

Now, in his ninth year as a Tennessee state representative, Parkinson says his experiences over the years have only added fuel to the fire, motivating him to create legislation, such as healthy workplace laws to prevent discrimination on jobs and the Tennessee CROWN Act, which would make it illegal to discriminate against natural hair in the workplace.

“I just wanted to get some stuff done,” he says of his decision to run for office in 2011. “I wanted to level the playing field for everyone.” But discrimination and racism is still a reality for Parkinson.

“The Tennessee legislature is rampant with racism,” he says. “There’s overt racism. There’s covert racism. It’s in the racist jokes and slurs to the policies. And if you say something about their racism or racist statues, then they want to kill all of your bills.”

For example, Parkinson says no people of color had any input that made it into the state’s budget this year. “Not one single person of color had something in the budget. What does that say? The budget is a moral document that determined the priorities for the state.”

“Sometimes it gets discouraging,” he says of his role as a legislator in the majority-white General Assembly. “Sometimes they’re practicing discrimination and don’t even realize what they’re doing is racism. They say things that are not necessarily from a place of malice, but a place of ignorance. So part of my job is educating them.”

Despite the discrimination over the years, Parkinson says he has always been proud of being Black.

“I knew I was Black early on. My mother wouldn’t not let me know. She taught me who I was and how proud I should be. I loved and still love being Black. There’s nothing like the culture and everything that comes with it.”

Because of that, Parkinson says he is an “unapologetic, uncut version of myself. We shouldn’t have to compromise who we are, at all. I don’t care if you have gold teeth or weave down your back. We don’t have to compromise our culture. This culture is dynamic with everything from natural hair to 26-inch rims to bass in the music. We should not be ashamed or dumb down who we are for someone else’s comfort.”

Categories
News The Fly-By

Data Driven

One month into Safer at Home, James Aycock was grasping to “figure out what was going on” with the local COVID-19 situation here but found little information and “even less thoughtful analysis.”

Though he says he’s no epidemiologist, he did what someone with a background in biomedical ethics would do. He took matters into his own hands, or spreadsheets. He crafted the daily virus information from the Shelby County Health Department into a series of visualizations. The data came to life in easy-to-read charts that show where we’ve been and where we’re (probably) heading.

James Aycock

James Aycock maps virus trends on his First Responses blog.

His First Responses blog and his Twitter feed have become a go-to for data-hungry Memphians. His first update had over 2,000 impressions and nearly 600 engagements, about 200 times higher than his normal tweets. Those numbers grew to 15,000 and 3,000 for the last update.

“The reason I think it’s needed — the real reason you should care about what I have to say — is because the public is not getting the full story from our local officials,” Aycock says. “Analyzing the data, I’ve noticed the ways our elected officials have not always been honest with us and have not always made public health a priority. So, it is my hope that my analysis can inform the public discussion so that we can hold our elected officials accountable.”

We caught up with Aycock to talk data (natch), trends, and projections. Catch the full interview with him this week at memphisflyer.com. — Toby Sells

Memphis Flyer: Why did you begin?

JA: I recently wrote a piece (which you can find here) about this, so I would just point you there. If you need me to try to summarize, let me know.

MF: What does it show you?

JA: The data show me that, first of all, we reopened too soon. We had actually made some real progress. We had effectively flattened the curve, but we did not meet the criteria for reopening. That’s the big thing. Plus, the reproductive rate was still over 1. And then Phase 2 has been a disaster. It just makes me wonder, how much safer would we be right now had we waited a little longer, until we actually met the criteria, to move to Phase 1?

The second thing I’m seeing is how we’re starting to effectively lose control of the spread of the virus. The reproductive rate continues to climb, new cases continue to climb much faster than testing, and the positivity rate is spiking.

We’re averaging 278 new cases per day so far this week, which is up 260 percent over the 77 new cases per day we averaged the week we moved to Phase 2. Testing is up, but not nearly at the same pace. Since the week we moved into Phase 2, testing is only up 40 percent, while new cases have exploded at over six times that rate. And this is why the positivity rate has spiked, from 4.7 percent to 12.2 percent so far this week. At this rate, we know that a significant number of cases are likely not being captured. And that means people with the virus, probably without symptoms, are unknowingly infecting their friends and family and colleagues.

MF: What might lie ahead for us?

JA: If we don’t take aggressive action, and soon, we will have no other choice than shutting things down again. We are looking at exponential growth. Remember, that’s what “flattening the curve” was all about. And we did that…until we didn’t. The curve is back again. And that is incredibly dangerous.

Right now, we’re doubling roughly every 30 days. Case 2,500 occurred on May 1st, then Case 5,000 occurred on May 31st, and then Case 10,000 occurred this week, on July 1st. If this trend continues, we’re looking at 20,000 total cases by August 1st. To frame that, it took us four months to see the first 10,000 cases, but at this rate the second 10,000 cases will come in just 30 days.

So, let’s play that out. Let’s say we continue to double every 30 days. Then we’re talking about 40,000 total cases by September 1st and 80,000 by October 1st, all the way to 640,000 cases by January 1st. At this rate, all of Shelby County will have been infected before the end of January.

Obviously, that would overwhelm the medical system, but it also means a lot of preventable deaths. We have to focus on more than hospitalizations. We have to focus on lives. This is a Black Lives Matter issue. African Americans represent 52 percent of Shelby County, but 61 percent of covid fatalities. Our Latinx community is also significantly overrepresented. We have to protect life.

MF: How have you seen data drive policy here?

JA: Unfortunately, I’m not seeing policy being driven by data. According to the data, we reopened too soon. Not only did we not meet our own criteria, but the reproductive rate was above one when we reopened, even though we know it has to be under 1 to stop the spread.

And we reopened without a mask ordinance in place, although all the data say that wearing masks significantly reduces spread. I am proud that Tami Sawyer on the county commission, as well as Michalyn Easter-Thomas and Jeff Warren on the city council, were able to get mask policies passed. But four commissioners and four council members opposed this. And our mayors reopened without it.

They also reopened before building out our contact tracing capacity, which the data say is essential to stopping the spread. We just onboarded 141 new tracers this week, but that should have been a precondition to reopening.

Also, the data right now is alarming. But I’m not hearing any alarms being sounded by our mayors. Tami Sawyer has been a strong voice for letting the data guide our policy, but so far she’s the only one calling for a reexamination of our “Back to Business” plan.

MF: What do we do now?

JA: I realize that our local leaders are in a tough spot. Congress refuses to act to provide real financial security for workers, for businesses, and for state and local government. And that is why there’s such pressure to open as much as we can, regardless of whether it’s really safe. So the first thing we need to do is contact our representatives in Congress.

Secondly, we know that people are tired of being at home, so we need to create ways for them to go out safely. Being indoors, with air conditioning circulating the virus, is a big problem. We need to do something about this. But we know it’s much safer outdoors.

So, let’s find ways to push activities outdoors. For example, we could close down streets to allow restaurants to space out tables. Imagine if we turned Madison and Cooper into outdoor seating for Overton Square. Imagine if you did the same with South Main, Broad Ave, Cooper-Young, etc. We could also turn parks and parking lots into open-air markets and cafes. These are things other cities have done. The point is, we’ve got to get creative. Going back to “normal” will not work.

MF: Anything else?

JA: Two things.

First, we need a real testing plan. My friends who are front-line medical workers are tested at least once per week. That has to be the standard for everyone going to work. The only way to contain the virus is to seek out and find every case so that we can isolate and trace contacts to stop the spread. We have to do far more testing than we’re doing currently.

Secondly, we have to decide if we want schools to reopen in the fall. If we don’t act, and act now, then it won’t be safe. The data are worse than ever, far worse than the spring, when we kept kids home.

If schools are not able to open in the fall, that will create a nightmare scenario for parents, especially working parents who are not able to work from home. And that, in turn, will create a huge problem for businesses. Without going back to school, there is no “Back to Business.” So we have to do everything we can to turn things around and create the conditions for safely opening schools.

Categories
Music Music Features

Spaceman Arrives: Michael Graber Debuts New Original Tracks

Michael Graber has built a career outside of music, but he’s a fixture on the local scene. Back in the ’90s, he helped found Prof. Elixir’s Southern Troubadours; more recently, we’ve heard his work with the Bluff City Backsliders, who have mined similar territory, or with the group Damfool, who are harder to pin down.

Now, another of his groups, Graber Gryass, is stepping to the fore, and, as the name implies, it’s more focused on his own songwriting than any of his earlier projects. That’s partly due to the realities of life during the coronavirus.

Photographs courtesy of Michael Graber

Michael Graber with son Leo and Graber Gryass

“When Amy LaVere and Will Sexton were on tour in March, and suddenly every gig they had was canceled, I thought, ‘Shit, what can I do?'” he explains. “So I started that Microdose series [on Facebook every Saturday at 1:30 p.m.], where I do two originals and one cover, to raise money for full-time working musicians. And I raised over $1,000 dollars, just to give away to all my musical brethren and sistren. But by the fourth one, I ran out of songs that I had written. I had to start writing songs pretty quickly just to keep up because there was more interest than I thought there would be. I challenged myself to do more songwriting, and after I had about 24 of them, I thought, ‘Hmm, some of ’em fit into a mold, some of them are way out, but we should record all of them.'”

Graber booked a couple days with Boo Mitchell at Royal Studios, and, fully masked, the band cut one song after another, mostly live in the tracking room. The players were so prolific and inventive that Graber is sorting the final tracks into two batches, to be released under different names. (An Indiegogo campaign under the name of Graber Gryass has been launched to fund the releases.)

Michael Graber w daughter Rowan Gratz & grandson Ellery with Graber Gryass

Sometime next year, he’ll release the most left-field compositions, which developed as the band grew more and more uninhibited in the studio. “The one with the weirder songs, I’m gonna call Spaceman’s Wonderbox. In one band I play in, called Damfool, they started calling me Spaceman. And they’ll never tell me why. It just kinda stuck. You can’t really fight it, right?” Moreover, the name is a good fit with the material itself, which Graber describes as “this mix of shamanic spoken word and ecstatic love poetry, and everybody’s playing behind me.”

While the songs were written in the downtime of shelter-in-place, Graber notes that they apply to life more generally. “There may be some emotional truth, but there’s no topical or literal way of talking about this time of quarantine. These songs run the gamut of the emotions, everything from jumping into a river to turning into light. It’s crazy stuff. It’s really more like a celebration of living fully, no matter what. Just flourishing. It’s springtime!”

Meanwhile, the other batch is already being released online. These are more traditional numbers, in a folk/bluegrass/country vein, albeit touched with Graber’s own old world-inspired lyrical imagination. These celebrate living fully as well, but in a different way. The first single, which dropped in late June, is simply titled “Marijuana.” “An ancient herbal brew, it could take care of you too,” he sings. Other tracks have dropped since, such as “Drinkin’ Forties,” celebrating another ancient brew, and “When the Water’s This Low,” which begins, “Now Daddy and Red been drinking since dawn and now the sun’s waning low. Twilight crept in like a ghost as we rode through a cypress grove.”

These first releases, which will emerge on a Graber Gryass album in August, are especially meaningful to Graber. “I’m gonna call [the first album] Late Bloom. I’m 50 and this’ll be the first thing ever released under my name, other than the Backsliders, 611, Prof. Elixir, all that stuff. It’s taken a while. It’s a way to say, ‘Hey, it’s never too late to create. We can always blossom, we can always flourish.'”

Categories
Politics Politics Feature

Signs of Political Life as Election Season Finally Kicks Off

At long last, and after months of inaction, it can probably be said that there’s an election season on. On the Republican side, GOP members of all stripes were on hand Sunday at a Germantown Parkway storefront that will serve as the party’s campaign headquarters for the duration of the 2020 election year.

Interestingly, the new party headquarters location is on the approximate geographic site — the same lot, it would seem — as the old, sprawling Homebuilders headquarters, razed to the ground some years ago but, in its prime, a complex that contained a generous-sized auditorium/arena area that long served as a meeting place for local GOPers, as well for civic clubs of various kinds.

Local Republican party chairman Chris Tutor, who, because of the resurgent coronavirus, insisted that all attendees wear face masks and do what they could to achieve some measure of social distancing, turned things over to keynote speaker David Kustoff, the 8th District congressman, who pointed out that one final Democrat-vs.-Republican contest loomed on the August 6th county general election ballot: the General Sessions Court clerk race between Republican Paul Boyd and Democrat Joe Brown.

That was something to unite upon, given that others in the crowd were running against each other for positions in the federal/state primary elections to be held on the same day.

In theory, Shelby County Democrats were on the move, too, organizing a series of “forums” involving their candidates for the state and federal primaries, and simultaneously recording for later broadcasting these events, some of them conducted at the old Hickory Ridge Mall.

Jackson Baker

Who was that (un)masked man? At Sunday’s opening of the Shelby County Republcan campaign headquarters on Germantown Parkway, everybody, in accordance with advance instructions, wore a face mask. There was one exception — the unidentified interloper at the very right side of this photo.

Jackson Baker

time for the U.S Senate seat being vacated by Lamar Alexander.

Categories
News News Feature

Taxman 2020

2020 has been an amazing year so far. The stock market had a record sell-off in the first quarter and a solid recovery in the second. COVID-19 shut down the world for a couple of months, but we started to reopen and now some areas are slowing down again. All of this in only six months.

If you haven’t had enough fun with that, let’s take the time to think about taxes in 2020. As a result of COVID, legislation was passed earlier this year that included three changes that may apply to you.

Charitable Contributions:

Charities are feeling the pinch of reduced contributions and increased service needs, just like the rest of us. Congress added two rules to help encourage charitable gifts in 2020. Normally, if you take the standard deduction on your income tax return, you cannot deduct charitable contributions. However, this year, donors who do not itemize may deduct up to $300 of charitable contributions. Additionally, larger donors are generally limited to deducting 60 percent of their Adjusted Gross Income (AGI) for cash gifts. But in 2020, Congress has increased this to 100 percent of AGI for cash gifts to operating charities. If you make sizable charitable contributions, work with your favorite charities and advisors to determine if there is an opportunity to make an additional impact this year.

IRA Distributions:

IRAs are great places to accumulate assets, but eventually the IRS decides they want their tax money. To make this happen, you must begin taking Required Minimum Distributions from your own IRA at age 72 or earlier for an inherited IRA. Because of the sell-off in the stock market early this year, Congress approved a one-year exemption from Required Minimum Distributions. If you would normally be subject to an RMD but do not need the cash this year, consider postponing the distribution and tax payment until next year. Depending on your 2020 tax bracket, it may be a good year to make a Roth conversion with a portion of your IRA. Pay some tax this year and get tax-free growth in future years.

People under age 59½ who take distributions from IRAs and 401ks are normally subject to a 10 percent penalty for early distribution. These accounts are designed to be a long-term savings program, but sometimes they are the only source of funds. For COVID-related distributions in 2020, you can pay the tax with your 2020 tax return or extend the payment over a three-year period. If you elect the three-year payment, you are still subject to paying the taxes during this period, but you have the option to claim a refund to get the funds back and avoid the tax (essentially a self-funded loan). To avoid the 10 percent early distribution penalty and qualify for the repayment period, the withdrawals must be under $100,000 and you have to meet one of the following criteria:

You, your spouse, or dependent are diagnosed with COVID.

You experience adverse financial consequences as a result of being quarantined, furloughed, laid off, or having reduced work hours, or the closure or reduction of hours for a business you own.

Unemployment Benefits:

The additional $600 per week unemployment benefits paid by the federal government is taxable income; don’t be surprised.

The tax changes offer a little bit for everyone: an additional charitable deduction for those who are inclined, postponed RMD for taxpayers who don’t need the cash, and a lower tax rate for those who do have to tap into retirement savings.

Take the time to plan ahead and get the best tax answer out of 2020.

Perry Green, CPA/PFS, CFP, CFA is chief financial officer and senior wealth strategist for Waddell & Associates.