My favorite football day of the year isn’t New Year’s
Day or Super Bowl Sunday (not even Tennessee-Alabama Saturday in October). No,
it’s conference-championship Sunday. I doubt there are two games played all year
with the desperation this weekends combatants will bring to the field as they
fight for NFC and AFC supremacy, and a dance-card at Super Bowl XL. John Madden
himself has said it for years: no loss hurts more than the one that leaves you a
game shy of the Super Bowl. With that edge in mind, here’s a forecast for what
to expect this Sunday.
AFC: Pittsburgh (13-5) at Denver (14-3)
It was oddly pleasing — in a mean-spirited sense — to
see Superman’s cape not just tugged, but stomped on a bit by the Denver Broncos
last Saturday. In the canonization of New England quarterback Tom Brady, the
national media has chosen to ignore that his 10-game playoff winning streak was
interrupted by his Patriots not even qualifying for the 2002 postseason. A
brilliant quarterback, Brady is without question. And New England’s three
championships in four seasons are deserving of mini-dynasty status. Nonetheless,
they proved as beatable in the rarefied air of Denver as the rest of the NFL
mortals who have been chasing the New England rabbit the last half-decade.
The victorious Broncos, alas, are still defined more by
what they lack than by what you’ll see on the field this Sunday. Saturday’s win
was the franchise’s first since its own signal-calling saint — John Elway —
retired after leading the team to a win in Super Bowl XXXIII (January 1999). One
of Elway’s favorite targets, Rod Smith, remains a threat, and Denver’s famously
non-famous offensive line continues to protect Elway’s latest successor, Jake
Plummer. An opportunistic defense — witness Champ Bailey’s 99-yard interception
return as New England threatened to take the lead last weekend — makes the
Broncos the most formidable, if generally ignored, team left in the field.
As for Denver’s opponent Sunday, the Steelers are making
their sixth trip to the AFC championship in 14 years under head coach Bill
Cowher. Since they beat, yes, Indianapolis after the 1995 season, Pittsburgh has
lost this game thrice (after the ‘97, ‘01, and ‘04 seasons). What’s different
this year? Willie Parker makes the running attack — for so long the Jerome
Bettis Show — more versatile. The Steelers’ secondary, led by All-Pro safety
Troy Polamalu (and yes, that was an interception against the Colts), may be the
NFL’s best. And sophomore quarterback Ben Roethlisberger seems to be gaining
some Brady-esque intangibles that come with winning, and often. When the most
accurate kicker in NFL history (statistically), misses a chance to tie your
playoff game in the closing minute — in a domed stadium, no less — a fan gets
the impression the karma gods may be wearing black this month. THE PICK:
Pittsburgh 24, Denver 17
NFC: Carolina (13-5) at Seattle (14-3)
Where have you gone, 49ers, Cowboys, and Packers? The
NFC matchup features a pair of teams who, as recently as 1994, weren’t even in
the NFC. Carolina returns for the third time since their 1995 expansion season,
quarterback Jake Delhomme and wideout Steve Smith representing the scariest
passing tandem still alive. Having already won twice on the road, the Panthers
are attempting — like the Steelers — the all-too-rare feat of winning three
games away from home to reach the Super Bowl. (The 1985 Patriots are the only
team to accomplish this, and check what happened to them in Super Bowl XX.)
Waiting for the Panthers at sure-to-be-wet Qwest Field
Sunday will be the Seattle Seahawks. Members of the AFC from their expansion
season of 1976 through 2001, the Seahawks have gotten this close to the ultimate
game only once before, losing to the Raiders after the 1983 season. If tailback
Shaun Alexander — the league’s MVP — is fully recovered from the concussion he
suffered Saturday against Washington, this game will tilt the home team’s way.
I was in
Seattle for an October game against Dallas, before the team’s strengths became
evident league-wide, and the most obvious quality to the Seahawks’ success is a
defensive pursuit — of both ball and quarterback — that never slows. This
quality allowed them to beat the league’s hottest team (the Redskins had won
five straight) with their best player sniffing smelling salts. And it’s the
quality that will lead to an influx of Starbucks-drinking, title-starved
football fans come February 5th in Detroit. THE PICK: Seattle 27, Carolina 13.