The answer to that question is no, but it’s complicated.
There has been a lot of chatter recently about the Grizzlies’ winning record without Ja Morant, which has led to the question of whether the team is better without its star player. Even in jest, the idea is ridiculous. It’s the popular “gotcha” statement of the moment, and while there are some statistical reasons being pointed to, they rely heavily on a purely surface-level examination of this team.
Yes, it is a wild statistic that the Grizzlies have such a winning record during the stretches without Ja this season, and that has garnered a lot of attention. But correlation does not equal causation.
What we are seeing is a perfect storm of good coaching, roster development, and a healthy dose of spurious correlation.
Let’s talk about it.
The Memphis Grizzlies are currently 20-4 in games without Morant this season. That moves to 10-4 in this most recent stretch without Morant. But that does not mean that the Grizzlies are a better team without him. In fact, they also have a winning record when he does play. Morant has played in 56 games this season, and the Grizzlies are 35-21 in those games.
There is not a team in the league that would not be made better if they added Morant to their roster. Full stop.
Still, attributing their success this season solely to Morant misses all the ways in which the team has also improved that have nothing to do with their star point guard.
It overlooks all the other legitimate talent on the team , and how they have created a chemistry on the court that is conducive to being successful, that is conducive to winning. The improvements across the board that have happened in the past three seasons are being downplayed, and coach Taylor Jenkins deserves a lot more credit than he is being given.
The Grizzlies’ style of play has changed drastically during Jenkins’ tenure. Their pace has increased, as has their shooting percentages and the number of shots taken per game.
Memphis has increased its average shot attempts per game by a considerable margin over the past few seasons. In the 2021-2022 season, the Grizzlies lead the league in field goal attempts per game (94.3). In 2020-2021 they were ranked second in the league in field goal attempts per game (91.8). In 2019-2020 they were ranked sixth in field goal attempts per game (90.9). Compare that to 2018-2019, J.B. Bickerstaff’s last season where they were ranked dead last in field goal attempts per game (84.4).
Field goal attempts are far from the only area in which the team has improved over the past few seasons. I have compared several categories in which the Grizzlies have improved, year over year.
Taylor Jenkins assumed head coaching duties starting with the 2019-2020 season. Seeing it all laid out shows the progression of improvement that has taken place during that time.
There is a lot of unselfish basketball being played, in part because everyone believes in everyone else. Instead of next man up, it is every man up and guys are playing in ways that help make their teammates better.
For this Grizzlies team — winning is their business, and business is good.
