Several polls of varying reliability have been circulated so far on the subject of the 2023 Memphis mayor’s race. The latest one surfaced last week in the form of an online video released by ex-Memphian Josh Thomas, now a Nashville consultant working on behalf of the mayoral race of Memphis City Councilman Frank Colvett Jr.
The results of that poll, available for examination on Colvett’s Facebook page, are somewhat startling and out of sync with several other surveys conducted earlier by avowedly neutral sources.
The new poll shows former Mayor Willie Herenton leading with 17 percent approval from those polled and Colvett, along with Downtown Memphis Commission CEO Paul Young, tied for second with 14 percent, with no other results indicated for any other candidates.
In previously circulated polls, Colvett had been buried in the single digits along with several other also-rans. To be sure, candidate Young, generally acknowledged these days to have a strong and possibly surging campaign, had also been in the lower digits in those early polls. And Herenton’s numbers are consistent with those reported for him elsewhere.
On the street, Colvett’s reported numbers were greeted with a fair amount of skepticism. Can they be taken seriously? No ancillary information (number surveyed, breakdown of sample, etc.) was released with the poll, which, says Thomas in the video, was taken on July 6th and 7th. The poll was administered by Cygnal, a company described by Thomas as “the most accurate private pollster in the country.”
How private? The company says of itself: “Cygnal serves GOP campaigns, committees, caucuses, and center-right public affairs issue efforts with forward-thinking polling, analytics & targeting.” That would tie in with Colvett’s known prominence in local Republican circles. Indeed, it is generally acknowledged that his starter base is heavily Republican, and the questions have been: Can he hold that base, which is a distinct minority of the whole? And can he, as a political moderate, expand on it?
According to Thomas, those surveyed were asked, quite simply: “If the election were held today, who would you vote for?”
But a key acknowledgement by Thomas is that the question was asked after those surveyed were given “biographies” of the various candidates.
Anyone familiar with political polling would be inclined to associate that procedure with what is called a “push poll” — one which builds a desired outcome into the very form of the questioning. The idea is simple: The better the “biography,” the better the poll numbers. And the skimpier or less positive the bio, the lower would be the numbers.
If the poll is to be taken seriously, its meta-message is obvious. Just as former Mayor Herenton has an impressively locked-in base of support, there also is known to be a significant number of voters who, for fair reasons or foul, have a built-in resistance to the prospect of Herenton’s returning to power.
The Cygnal poll results imply rather directly that, if it’s Herenton you fear, Frank Colvett could be your man. Colvett himself, known to be fair-minded, and, as previously indicated, moderate, would never venture a sentiment like that directly.
