Citing a new poll conducted last week by the Change Research firm, the People for Justice and Fairness (PJF), an activist group supporting Van Turner for mayor contends that “when Memphians learn about Van Turner, he surges to the top of the mayoral race.”
What that translates into is that Turner led, with a final figure of 23 percent, in a final tabulation of multi-stage polling. In that version, percentages for other leading candidates were: Floyd Bonner, 21; Paul Young, 21; Willie Herenton, 14.
Turner rose to the top once the poll results (a) included the category of “leaning” and (b) included a brief bio of the top candidates (the three aforementioned).
Some observers would call that a “push poll.” As defined in a previous article in this space about another candidate’s self-released poll: “Anyone familiar with political polling would be inclined to associate that procedure with what is called a ‘push poll’ — one which builds a desired outcome into the very form of the questioning. The idea is simple: The better the ‘biography,’ the better the poll numbers. And the skimpier or less positive the bio, the lower would be the numbers.”
Anecdotal evidence would also suggest that Turner’s campaign has made serious advances since gaining several recent prestige endorsements — from Shelby County Mayor Lee Harris, Congressman Steve Cohen, Shelby County District Attorney Steve Mulroy, and state Representative Justin J. Pearson. (Pearson has also made substantial financial contributions to Turner through a Political Action Committee.)
As indicated, the initial stage of the questionnaire totaled answers from respondents who had already made their final picks, and Paul Young led, with the previously mentioned 21 percent.
The numbers shifted when results from those respondents undecided but leaning toward specific candidates were added. Results were: Young, 22 percent; Bonner, 17 percent; Herenton, 16 percent; and Turner, 12 percent.
After the further addition of the bios, Turner ended up ahead, with the previously indicated lead of 23 percent.
The bios added for this third stage of polling were as follows below. (Readers can judge for themselves whether the bios, which seem to be posed fairy neutrally would tend to tilt the voting to a particular candidate.):
“Van Turner, esteemed attorney, Memphis NAACP president, and former Shelby County Commissioner, has a rich background in leadership and civil rights advocacy. He knows that to increase public safety we must fight crime at its roots with improved housing, bolstered education jobs, reliable infrastructure, and economic opportunity. Turner has the proven track record we need to keep Memphis safe.
“Paul Young, President and CEO of the Downtown Memphis Commission, seeks the mayoral office with a vision of improving public safety, bolstering the economy, and revitalizing neighborhoods. Young will use his business background to stimulate job creation, foster local entrepreneurship, and invest in youth. His mayoral agenda also emphasizes tackling blight and enhancing Memphis’s vibrant culture. Young aims to make Memphis a better place to live for all.
“Floyd Bonner, Shelby County Sheriff, will make fighting crime his #1 priority as Mayor of Memphis. Bonner plans to aggressively recruit more police officers, expand data and community policing, and hold accountable the people who threaten our community. Committed to making safety the backbone of prosperity, Bonner is ready to tackle the challenges facing Memphis.
“Now that you’ve read some more, if the general election for the Mayor were held today and the candidates were the following, who would you vote for?“
Factoring into the selection of those to be polled — according to the press release from PFJ, along with Stand for Children, and Movement for Justice — were aspects of “age, gender, race/ethnicity, education, region, and [preference in] the 2020 presidential vote.” The following rundown applies to that last aspect, the respondents’ presidential vote in 2020:
69% Joe Biden, the Democrat
22% Donald Trump, the Republican
1% Jo Jorgensen, the Libertarian
0% Not registered/Too young/Ineligible
8% Did not vote
It should be noted that, of all the mayoral candidates, Turner, a former chairman of the Shelby County Democratic Party, has identified himself most strongly with the Democratic Party and its goals.
The press release states, “With strong union backing and an undeniable momentum growing day by day, this people-powered campaign is poised to shape the future of Memphis to one that is bright for all.”
