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Beyond the Arc Sports

Roster Forecast: Point Guard

I remain optimistic that a deal will be struck in the next two weeks that will preserve the full regular-season, but even if that happens, we’re going to be looking at an accelerated training camp/signing period.

In preparation for a potential deal and a crazy ramp-up to the season, I’m going to take a daily position-by-position look at where the roster stands heading into the hopefully approaching season.

Mike Conley

Mike Conley

Regular Season: 35.5 mpg, 13.7 ppg, 3.0 rpg, 6.5 apg, 1.78 spg, 2.2 tpg, 15.9 PER, 44fg%, 73ft%, 37 3p% (2.7 att)
Playoffs: 39.9 mpg, 15.2 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 6.4 apg, 1.1 spg, 2.3 tpg, 13.9 PER, 39fg%, 83ft%, 30 3p% (2.8 att)
Age: 23
Contract Status: $6.5 million in first year of five-year deal.

Mike Conley is coming off his best and most consistent season. In the regular season, he avoided the slow starts that plagued him in previous seasons en route to matching or setting career highs in almost every statistical category. (Exception: His surprisingly effective three-point shooting fell off a little, from 41% and 39% the previous two seasons to just under 37% last season.)

Conley then held is own in the high-stakes atmosphere of his first playoff run, facing tough match-ups in both series, playing nearly 40 minutes a night, and helping guide a #8 seed to the seventh game in the second round.

Good season aside, Conley is not without questions. If the post-season established him as a cool floor general and solid starter, it also exposed some of his offensive and defensive limitations: In the regular season, Conley was able to mitigate his tendency to get overpowered defensively by using his quick hands and good instincts to pile up deflections and steals (sixth per game at 1.79). Asked to play big minutes in the playoffs, Conley was more conservative in an attempt to avoid foul trouble, and was going to struggle against the bigger, more explosive Russell Westbrook regardless. The Grizzlies ended up using Tony Allen or O.J. Mayo to defend Westbrook for stretches.

Offensively, Conley is steady (his assist rate went up as his turnover rate went down) but has not emerged as a dynamic playmaker. As a scorer, he’s a nice secondary option, but the Grizzlies tend to struggle when Conley is forced into more of a primary role. With Rudy Gay out and the remaining wing players struggling offensively in the playoffs, Conley’s field-goal attempts per game went up (11.8 to 14.1) while his shooting percentage dipped precipitously (from 44% to under 39%).