What to Expect When You’re Expecting the Warriors

Larry Kuzniewski

It’s going to be Tony Allen’s job to turn the Warriors’ water off tonight.

Tonight, the Grizzlies take on the 21–2 Golden State Warriors, the only team in the NBA with a better record. Given how well Warriors teams in the past could score, it may be a surprise that this year’s league-leading edition has roughly the same offensive rating as Memphis (107.5 points per 100 possessions) but features a defense currently rated as the league’s best—allowing 95.2 points per 100. Under first-year head coach Steve Kerr, the Warriors are doing everything well, playing team-oriented basketball, defending well, scoring at will. They’re a really good team, and they’re off to the same start as the 72-win 1996 Bulls.

The Grizzlies, though, have other plans about tonight. After taking care of business (barely) this weekend against the Hornets and 76ers, the Griz are 19–4, on a 6-game winning streak since dropping a home game to the Spurs on December 5. They’ve had some great games—especially the one against the Mavericks—and they’ve had some not-so-great games (like the Sixers game that we never need to talk about again), but for the most part they’re playing like exactly what they are: one of the best teams in the Western Conference, and thus one of the best teams in the NBA.

It feels like the Grizzlies have done well against the Warriors the last few seasons:

• 2013–14: 2–2^[1]
• 2012–13: 3–0
• 2011–12: 4–0
• 2010–11: 2–1

So, when the Grizzlies are good, they beat the Warriors. The health of Andrew Bogut has played a big role in that—he’s been hurt quite a bit the past few seasons—and the quality of the Warriors’ bench frontcourt has had a lot to do with that too. But overall, this Grizzlies core has done well against this configuration of Warriors.

But.

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The Warriors have never been this good. They’ve got a new coach. Steph Curry continues to do Steph Curry Things at a rate that defies belief—he, like Marc Gasol, is playing at a simply ridiculous level this season. Draymond Green and Klay Thompson have both elevated their games this season, along with former Grizzlies Zoo Crew (and man, is that ever a horrible nickname) member Marreese Speights.

So what do the Grizzlies have to do to avoid being handed a home loss on ESPN tonight?

➭ Stay home on shooters. It’s the thing that gets them into so much trouble with the Spurs, and with Curry and Thompson both running around, it’s going to be even more important tonight. The Grizzlies cannot help off of anyone on the perimeter—let the big boys defend the big boys one-on-one, and try not to let drives to the basket pull defenders far enough off Curry and Thompson that they’re standing there wide open. It’s going to be important to go over screens, too; that’s what got the Grizzlies in a big first-half hole against Dallas. Curry’s lightning-quick release is the antithesis of a Tayshaun corner three; it’s in the basket before you realize he’s taking a shot. It’s up to the Grizzlies’ perimeter defenders to take this seriously.

➭ Marc Gasol is on the team. Use him. Let him do his thing. I’ll allow Dave Joerger to call for, like, four Z-Bo isolation plays in the whole game. The ball needs to flow tonight, and it needs to flow to and through Marc Gasol. I’m not saying Zach Randolph isn’t a factor; I’m just saying don’t hand him the ball and clear out. That’s not going to work against the Warriors anymore.

➭ The bench can’t be terrible. The Grizzlies’ bench has been playing pretty well as of late. Tonight, they need to be able to hold their own no matter which personnel Golden State has on the floor. Andre Igoudala has been coming off the bench for the Warriors; can Tayshaun Prince handle him? If not, who will? Can Vince Carter get it together? It’s going to matter tonight. The Warriors can score, but it is possible to defend them, and the Grizzlies have to be able to keep up even when the starters are resting.

It’s going to be interesting to see how the minutes get distributed tonight, and how the rotation shortens (if it does at all). Mike Conley and Beno Udrih got a lot of run in overtime against Philadelphia, but against a Curry/Thompson/Igoudala lineup, Udrih’s defense may be too much of a liability to let him guard one of those three guys. It may be a game where the length of Nick Calathes gives him a defensive advantage, but his lateral quickness (or, to be clear, lack thereof) may be a problem. The matchups in this game are fascinating, and no doubt both coaches, Kerr and Joerger, will be doing everything they can to exploit them for 48 minutes. My sense is that, like playing the Spurs, tonight’s game is going to be very tactical in nature.

All in all, it’s mostly just nice that the two best teams in the NBA are playing in Memphis tonight, and we all get to watch—and, on top of that, the whole rest of the world gets to watch it, too, because ESPN decided to show it. Games like tonight are why we all wanted an NBA team in the first place: because basketball played at its highest levels is a beautiful game, and we make a beautiful crowd on national television. The Grizzlies will have their hands full tonight, but if they pull off the win, they’ll have solidified their reputation as one of this year’s teams to beat.