When Mike Conley scored nine points in the final four-and-a-half minutes to complete a comeback against the San Antonio Spurs at FedExForum on Monday night, it felt like the final breakthrough of what has been — so far — a career-best campaign. Taking over a game offensively in the final minutes was something relatively new, but playing well late wasn’t. And how Conley did it — with three driving lay-ups and a three pointer, playing some off the ball alongside sixth-man Jerryd Bayless — was a microcosm of larger trends helping drive Conley’s emergence.
Organizations and coaches love it when a plan comes together. For Conley, the preseason plan was to play less while doing more — reduce his playing time some while having him become more dynamic and productive and having him hold up better late in games.
The playing time hasn’t actually changed much — Conley’s minutes per game are down very slightly, from 35.1 to 34.6 — but the better and more sustained play the team hoped for from Conley has indeed materialized.
I wrote in that season preview piece that Conley, more than his higher-paid and more-celebrated teammates Rudy Gay, Zach Randolph, and Marc Gasol, would be the key for this season’s Grizzlies. The reasoning was that the Grizzlies had, arguably, the least dynamic backcourt rotation among NBA contenders as the game is evolving to be more guard-oriented. Conley had to play at a high level to keep up, no matter how strong the Grizzlies were in the paint.
As the season’s progressed, I’ve half-jokingly been tracking what I call “the Conley Correlation,” and it’s held up:
Conley, in wins: 16/7 on 47% shooting, 38% from three, +12
Conley, in losses: 12/5 on 37% shooting, 33% from three -6
(All stats, unless otherwise indicated, from NBA.com or ESPN.com.)
No other player’s individual production has been as sure an indicator of team success. And as the Grizzlies inch toward the best regular season in franchise history, one of the biggest reasons they’ve gotten there is because Conley is also having his best regular season.
