Author: Jimmie Covington

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Opinion Viewpoint

Two Myths About Memphis’ Population and the Legality of Outside Attorneys.

Increasing Memphis’ population through growth rather than annexation is a major goal of incoming mayor Jim Strickland. However, it is unrealistic to think that the city’s population will increase during Strickland’s term or terms in office.

If it does, it will be something that has occurred in only a few decades since 1900. And it would come in the face of strong demographic trends over the last 50 years, and soon after a decade, 2000-2010, in which Memphis experienced probably the largest losses of residents to outward movement in its history. 

Elected officials generally are positive in their public statements, but a more important question is: Do they at least seem to have any real understanding of the situations around them?

The 2010 Census figures showed that for the first time in history, Memphis’ population declined in a decade in which the city carried out a major annexation. Between 2000 and 2010, the city took in territory with 40,000 residents. Also, vital statistics records show that Memphis had at least 30,000 to 40,000 more resident births than resident deaths. That’s a net loss of 70,000 to 80,000 or more residents to out-migration over the 10 years.

The census counts for Memphis show: 2000 Census-650,100; 2010 Census-646,889.

Just looking at these numbers might leave the mistaken impression that Memphis had only a small loss. Elected officials barely took notice of the census results.  

Comments from both city and county officials did not indicate that they grasped the meaning of the census results and the extent of the population shifts.

So far this decade, census estimates show more people are moving away from the entire nine-county metro area than are moving in. Areas with strong and growing economies attract more people than they lose. Areas with weak or slow-growing economies lose more people than they gain.

Memphis has a long history of growing on its edges and then increasing its population through annexations. Population grew substantially in the Frayser and Whitehaven areas in the 1950s and 1960s. Frayser was annexed in the late 1950s and Whitehaven at the end of 1969. 

In an interview several years ago, I asked a veteran city planning educator if he expected population to increase in Memphis. He said he thought it would in “islands” but indicated he didn’t see growth overall. Some of the “islands” were downtown, Midtown, Cooper-Young, the Poplar corridor, and maybe one or two other areas.

With their new school systems, Shelby County’s suburban municipalities appear to be poised for continuing growth. And the Hispanic population has been and may continue to be a factor in Memphis’ population numbers. 

On an unrelated issue, the Shelby County Commission has moved to name its own attorney. It seems clear that the drafters of both the city and county government charters did not intend for the City Council and commission to have their own regular attorneys.

The City Charter says the mayor is in charge of all appointments and the hiring and firing of all city personnel, and that the contracting authority rests solely with the mayor. County Attorney Ross Dyer cites the County Charter as disallowing the hiring of permanent counsel outside his jurisdiction.

Back in 1988, however, then Councilman Michael Hooks wanted lawyer Allan Wade to advise the council, and Dick Hackett, mayor at the time, merely acquiesced in the arrangement. After voters rejected proposed charter amendments allowing council members to hire council employees and ratify city contracts, Hackett, who had opposed the measures, notified Wade he no longer would be paid for advising the council.  

After Willie Herenton became mayor in 1991, he did not reappoint the assistant city attorney who had continued advising the council, but he allowed Wade to work for the council. To resolve a clash over the anomaly that occurred in 1997, the council worked out an ad hoc agreement with the mayor that placed the council staff hirings and attorney appointment on a more formal, but still provisional, basis. The practice, which was at the discretion of the mayor, remained unchanged under A C Wharton.

Even as the County Commission, engaged in a power struggle with County Mayor Mark Luttrell, strives to install its own version of an Allan Wade, a parallel and so far unstated question is: Will Strickland allow the council to continue with an independent counsel, or will he move to make changes?

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News The Fly-By

Stunted Growth

CREDIT: Dreamstime

The first official population estimates since the 2010 U.S. Census provide worrisome news for the Memphis metro area in terms of growth.

The U.S. Census Bureau estimates for July 1, 2011, released in April, show that more people have moved out of the eight-county metro area than moved in during the 15 months since the 2010 Census was taken on April 1, 2010. That’s a turnaround from the last decade, when 18,481 more people moved to the metro area than moved away.

DeSoto County, which has been listed among the nation’s top 100 fastest-growing counties throughout the last decade, failed to retain that ranking for the 15-month period.

Fayette County, which has also been among or near the nation’s top 100 fastest-growing counties during most of the last decade, did not make the top 100 list either.

Shelby County continued to lose people to outward movement, which has been occurring since the 1970s. However, a demographer at the University of Nebraska at Omaha said the latest figures, combined with other population trends, indicate that Shelby may be on a path toward no growth or population loss.

Louis Pol, dean of the university’s college of business and a former faculty member at the University of Memphis, did not forecast when the no-growth or population loss situations may occur. He said whether Shelby drops to no-growth or population decline may depend on whether the county’s Hispanic population continues to increase at a good pace.

“I am very interested in the increase in the number of Hispanics moving to Tennessee in general but in particular to Memphis and Shelby County,” Pol said.

Census figures show that Shelby County’s population increased by just over 30,000 between 2000 and 2010, rising to 927,644. Countywide, the Hispanic population increased by nearly 29,000, climbing to 52,092.

“If you take this 30,000 increase [in Shelby County overall] and take out this almost 29,000 increase in the Hispanic population, you basically have no growth at all,” Pol said.

The census estimates for July 1st of last year show Shelby with a 7,444 population increase since April 1st of the previous year. The increase resulted from births exceeding deaths and people moving into the area from foreign countries. During the period, the county had 8,382 more births than deaths, while there was a net domestic out-movement of 2,920 and net international in-movement of 2,005.

The dominant factor in Shelby County’s low growth in the last decade was the major outward movement of people from Memphis. Census and birth-death numbers reflect that at least 80,000 more people moved out of the city than moved in during the decade. Many of the movers left Shelby County or the entire metro area.

Categories
News The Fly-By

Tale of Two Populations

Nashville’s metro area had a population increase of 178,069 from people moving to the area in the last decade while the Memphis area’s net gain was only 18,481, census and birth-death numbers show.

“Demographic growth and economic growth go hand in hand,” said John Gnuschke, director of the Sparks Bureau of Business and Economic Research at the University of Memphis. “In-migration is a key indicator of economic vitality. In choosing the Nashville area, people found a place where they would like to live and could find work.”

Gnuschke said the Nashville area performed better than the Memphis area in generating job opportunities during the decade.

“Memphis, like many other major cities, struggled to keep its head above water during a decade-long period of a jobless economy recovery followed by the Great Recession,” he said.

“Nashville also has the advantage of having a number of sizable, high-growth, primarily residential counties in its metro area. Those counties provide an attractive environment for families, while the broader metro area provides the job opportunities necessary to sustain growth.”

The 13-county Nashville metro area includes four highgrowth, high in-migration counties: Rutherford, Williamson, Sumner, and Wilson.

The eight-county Memphis metro area has only one similar high-population, suburban county, DeSoto in Misssissippi, and two smaller-population, counties, Fayette and Tipton.

As in the Memphis area, most of the Nashville area’s population growth is occurring in suburban counties rather than in the central county (Davidson).

The determination on which counties are included in a metropolitan statistical area is based on census data under guidelines set by the federal Office of Management and Budget.