Whatever it might mean for the November election results, the August voting in Shelby County showed an interesting pattern vis-a-vis the race for the Democratic nomination for governor.
As noted by Erik Schelzig of the Tennessee Journal and as demonstrated in the graphic above (image courtesy of Memphis consultant Cole Perry) the Democrats’ second-place finisher statewide, City Councilman JB Smiley of Memphis, dominated primary voting in Shelby County, perhaps as expected, winning 61.99 percent of the county’s vote as a native son, with 48,650 votes. Second place in Shelby County went to Dr. Jason Martin of Nashville, who garnered 22.72 percent of the vote, with 18,005 votes. Martin finished first in the state as a whole and, consequently, is the party’s nominee in November to oppose GOP Governor Bill Lee.
What will be noticed from the graphic is the lengthy pink salient penetrating the county map from the east. This is where Martin netted from 40 to 60 percent of the primary vote and was the source of his strength in Shelby County. That portion of the county happens to be synonymous with what Schelzig and others call the “finger of love,” a section of the county peeled away from what used to be the 9th District and assigned by Republican redistricters to the 8th Congressional District.
Another way of describing the salient is that it is the Poplar Avenue Corridor, site of a good deal of upscale business and residential areas.
So what can be deduced from the map? Several things; one in particular: At least to a modest degree, the Poplar Corridor is potentially competitive in November between Martin and Lee. The rest of the county should go to Martin, though turnout for Martin as the Democratic nominee in November may lag behind what Memphian Smiley was able to attract in August.
And not to be neglected is that the 12,604 votes won in Shelby by third-place finisher Carnita Atwater, also a Memphian, most probably took enough votes away from Smiley to prevent his becoming the party nominee. He lost to Martin statewide by only 1,472 votes.
Ultimately, in any case, the odds of a Martin victory in November remain remote in that statewide voting remains overwhelmingly Republican.
Still, Democrats would be well advised to give that finger a shake.
