• Troubling trends. With a third of the season behind us, there are at least two statistical trends Memphis coach Ryan Silverfield and his staff would like to see reversed in the coming weeks. Despite winning three of their four games, the Tigers have been outscored in the fourth quarter (52-38). And that’s with three of the four games being played on home turf at the Liberty Bowl. Memphis has dominated the first quarter (58-20), and that’s an important factor, too. But championship teams finish strong, as measured across a season and as measured over a 60-minute game. The Tigers scored 21 points in the first quarter last Saturday to take a big lead against UTSA. But they only scored once more (a Brandon Thomas touchdown late in the third quarter). Meanwhile, the Roadrunners put up 17 fourth-quarter points to steal the win.
Another troubling figure: The Tiger offense has scored touchdowns on just over half its possessions in the red zone (inside opponents’ 20-yard line): 8 for 14. (Conversely, Memphis opponents have reached the end zone on 12 of 17 possessions.) The stat is somewhat misleading, as the Tigers have quick-strike capability and can score from well beyond the 20. All four of their touchdowns against Mississippi State (including one scored by the defense and another by special teams) chewed up more than 20 yards. But settling for three points (or worse, no points) when seven points are within reach is deadly, big picture. Look for Silverfield and offensive coordinator Kevin Johns to figure this out. The Tigers have too many weapons, both through the air and on the ground, to come up short in the shadow of the goal posts.
• Calvin’s catches. Be careful with “on pace for” statistics. Injuries, opponents, and even weather can distort projected numbers, both for a team and individual player. But Calvin Austin III is teasing Memphis fans with some ridiculous reception figures through four games. The Harding Academy grad is second in the country with 533 receiving yards, a number that puts him — here we go — on pace for 1,599 yards in the regular season, a total that would shatter Anthony Miller’s record of 1,462 (accumulated over 13 games in 2017). Austin has put up the yardage total on only 27 catches, making his average just under 20 yards per reception (19.74). Like Miller before him, Austin could climb from walk-on status to All-America recognition over the course of his Tiger career. And hey, he’s good for a memorable punt return now and then, too.
• Philly stakes. There’s nothing “brotherly” — and not much love — about the Tigers’ recent trips to play Temple in Philadelphia. A blown call in the fourth quarter two years ago (on a Joey Magnifico catch) cost the Tigers an undefeated regular season. The previous trip to face the Owls was almost as painful, a 31-12 beat-down in 2015 (that Memphis team went 9-4). You have to go back to 2014, the Tigers’ first road game against the Owls, to find a Memphis win. How to avoid a second straight loss this season? Start with the areas mentioned above: score touchdowns when deep in Temple territory, and win the fourth quarter. This is a team that was eviscerated (61-14) by Rutgers and lost ugly (28-3) to Boston College. Conference games have a different feel, with actual standings in the mix. Perhaps the UTSA loss is just the motivator the Tigers need to reverse the “feel” the Temple series has generated to this point.
