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FRIST: FRED’S RUN ’70 PERCENT’ CERTAIN

U.S. Senator Bill Frist, who acknowledges that his Tennessee Republican colleague, Senator Fred Thompson goes “up and down” on his willingness to pursue a reelection race in 2002, said in an interview Thursday that there is “a 70 percent probability” that Thompson will run next year.

Frist was in Memphis as guest of honor at a fund-raiser at the downtown Plaza Club for U.S. Rep. Ed Bryant, who has senatorial ambitions that can be shelved in favor of a congressional reelection race.

In apparent response to what many took to be a senatorial-race trial ballon floated by former Governor Lamar Alexander last week, Frist said, “In the event that Senator Thompson does not run for reelection, I have no doubt that Ed Bryant has far and away more support to succeed him than anyone else.”

Frist’s presence, coupled with his interview statement, had to be regarded as a huge boost for Bryant, who expressed some annoyance last week with Alexander’s collaboration with former Vice President Al Gore in a Nashville-based political seminar and said of an item in the Wall Street Journal on Alexander’s potential Senate candidacy, “I wondered what he [Lamar] was doing giving all that free publicity to Al Gore. Now it seems obvious he had another motive.”

Any statement about senatorial prospects counts especially heavy coming from Frist, who is considered as close to President George W. Bush as any member of Congress and is both the president’s liaison with the Senate and chairman of the Senate Republican Campaign Committee.

Another prospective Senate candidate who could take heart from Frist’s remarks is Elizabeth Dole, who is the subject of a boom in North Carolina now that incumbent Sen. Jesse Helms has announced retirement plans. Other Republicans have expressed interest in Helms’ seat, including former U.S. Senator Lauch Faircloth, U.S. Rep. Richard Burr, ex-Charlotte Mayor Richard Vinroot, and attorney Jim Snyder.

Frist confirmed that “serious” conversations have begun between Dole and the president’s inner circle, a fact which is bound to be galling to the other hopefuls.. “These [the talks] didn’t happen as early as some reports indicated, ” Frist said, “but for the last day or so, they’ve been going on in earnest.”

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Poll Tacks

It’s a year away from the August 2002 general election, and do you know where you pollster is? If you’re a candidate — actual or potential — for Shelby County mayor, chances are that you do.

Among those who’ve decided to hire a practiced pulse-taker of the public mood are Democrats A C Wharton, Jim Kyle, and Carol Chumney. As for the Republicans, mega-developer Jackie Welch, who is not a wannabe himself, has hired the well-known pollster Berge Jacoubian to check out the prospects for a mayoral race by Welch’s longtime friend, Circuit Court Clerk Jimmy Moore.

Moore, as was first noted on the Flyer Web site (www.memphisflyer.com) last month, is still looking at three races — one for reelection, one for the office of sheriff, and one for county mayor. Though Moore is considered unlikely to reach for the top ring on the pole, he has not yet ruled a mayoral race out. Hence Jacoubian.

Kyle, a onetime campaign aide himself, has a professional’s attitude toward running for office, one which his opponents would be wise not to underestimate. The state senator for the Raleigh/Frayser area has signed on with Decision Research, a Washington, D.C.-based consulting firm which he used for his reelection race last year. Kyle’s short-term intent is to devise strategy for the Democratic primary component of the mayoral race, which will be decided on May 7th of next year.

Wharton, who increasingly has handicappers talking him up as the favorite, not only for the Democratic primary but for the general election, has asked former University of Memphis professor John Bakke to run a preliminary poll for him.

Bakke, who has handled campaigns for clients as diverse as Harold Ford Sr. and Governor Don Sundquist, has racked up an impressive success record. His employment by Wharton is some measure of how seriously the Shelby County public defender is taking the race.

“I think he’s a class guy, someone who has a strong identification with the important issue of education,” said Bakke. (Wharton is a member and former chairman of the influential Tennessee High Education Commission.) Bakke said he had his pick of several potential candidates to work for. “They’re all my friends. But besides thinking A C is the kind of person I’d like to see serve as county mayor, the race would be kind that requires some work, that I could make a real contribution to.”

Since making an unsuccessful run for district attorney general several years ago, Wharton has often been talked up as a candidate for this or that office, but a number of factors — definitely including the high fees he commands for his private practice — have so far kept him from running.

The case for his winning the Democratic primary, aside from resting on his likeable personality and impressive achievements, is that he would be a name-brand black candidate running in a predominantly white field. In the general election, Wharton has enough crossover appeal to vie with any white Republican for the middle-of-the-road vote.

Indeed, Wharton, who managed two of Memphis Mayor Willie Herenton‘s election races, is that rare public figure who has a definite partisan identity — in his case, as a Democrat — without being confined by it. When he was Shelby County chairman for the U.S. Senate campaign of then-congressman Jim Cooper in 1994, his involvement did not keep him from offering the following wry observation on the then closely watched WKNO-TV program Informed Sources: “You know, [Cooper] is not a very exciting fellow. It’s kind of like watching a man eat a mashed-potato sandwich.”

Another Democratic candidate, State Representative Carol Chumney, was probably the first to hire a pollster, but she prefers for now to keep the identity of hers to herself. “We have a professional relationship, and I haven’t yet got clearance from him,” she says. “I will say that my poll showed that I had very high positives among the people who answered ‘Yes’ to name recognition questions.”

Not everybody has tied up with a pollster just yet. A major contender for the Democratic nomination for county mayor, Bartlett banker Harold Byrd, says that it’s premature to be doing any serious polling.

“There are basically two kinds of things you find out from a poll — what the issues are and how well you’re doing,” said Byrd this week. “At this stage of the race, a candidate ought to have at least a fair knowledge of both subjects without having to ask somebody.”

Though he probably will do some polling down the line, Byrd is concentrating right now on what he calls “meet-the-people” events — like the three-mile run he and a group of supporters took through the Binghamton neighborhood Saturday morning.

“We’re going to do 20 of those runs altogether, and we will have traversed the whole of Shelby County before it’s over,” vows Byrd.

· The 90th birthday celebration last week for well-loved local Republican patriarch John T. Williams at the home of Shelby County Mayor Jim Rout was a nice break in what was a depressing week otherwise in the life-passages department. Paul Gurley, who was a respected aide to two-term Memphis Mayor Dick Hackett, died, as did broadcaster Dave Black (see Viewpoint).

It was also the second anniversary week of the death of Ann Rickey, who was one of the more redoubtable local activists and political hostesses.

· Word comes from the camp of Democratic gubernatorial candidate Andy Womack, the former state senator from Murfreesboro, that favorite Phil Bredesen better watch out, that Womack’s money-raising has gone up dramatically after the surprise withdrawal of former party chairman Doug Horne.

It will take many a fund-raiser, however, for Womack to catch up with the former Nashville mayor, who made a fortune as a health-care entrepreneur. ·

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LAMAR’S TRIAL BALLOON BUGS BRYANT

As Tennessee’s senior senator Fred Thompson continues to signal that he may not choose to run for reelection in 2002, former Governor Lamar Alexander had sent up a trial balloon for a Senate race.

And that tentative launching strikes U.S. Rep. Ed Bryant as something of a red flag.

The prospect of an Alexander race — almost certainly vented by the two-time governor (and two-time presidential loser) himself — was indicated in a Wall St. Journal brief on Friday and was picked up by the influential political website The Hotline.

The WSJ item reads in its entirety: “TENNESSEE WALTZ: Former governor and GOP presidential candidate Lamar Alexander ponders a 2002 Senate race if Fred Thompson retires. Continuing efforts to keep in touch with supporters for a possible 2004 rematch with Bush, Al Gore meets with fund-raisers and activists in San Francisco next week.”

The item came in the immediate aftermath of Alexander’s appearance last week, with former Vice President Al Gore, at a political seminar in Nashville.

At Friday night’s local reception for nonagenerian John T. Williams at the home of Shelby County Mayor Jim Rout, Bryant referred to the matter.

“I wondered what he [Lamar] was doing giving all that free publicity to Al Gore. Now it seems obvious he had another motive,” Bryant commented wryly.

The congressman has said a number of times that he will run for the Senate if Thompson, who seems increasingly reluctant to make another race, opts out. The WSJ item was the first indication that Alexander’s thinking was moving in the same direction.

If the former governor turns out to be serious and is given the opportunity to run by means of a Thompson withdrawal, it will constitute something of an irony, in that Bryant was once thought to be pitted against his Tennessee colleague, 4th District Rep. Van Hilleary for either a Senate or a gubernatorial race.

Bryant defused that showdown in February with a statement that he would not run for governor. That, coupled with Thompson’s renunciation of his own gubernatorial ambitions, in effect divided the stateside electoral turf between Bryant and Hilleary, with Bryant gaining de facto squatter’s rights on a Senate bid.

Alexander’s hint now complicates that scenario.

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LAMAR’S TRIAL BALLOON BUGS BRYANT

As Tennessee’s senior senator Fred Thompson continues to signal that he may not choose to run for reelection in 2002, former Governor Lamar Alexander had sent up a trial balloon for a Senate race.

And that tentative launching strikes U.S. Rep. Ed Bryant as something of a red flag.

The prospect of an Alexander race — almost certainly vented by the two-time governor (and two-time presidential loser) himself — was indicated in a Wall St. Journal brief on Friday and was picked up by the influential political website The Hotline.

The WSJ item reads in its entirety: “TENNESSEE WALTZ: Former governor and GOP presidential candidate Lamar Alexander ponders a 2002 Senate race if Fred Thompson retires. Continuing efforts to keep in touch with supporters for a possible 2004 rematch with Bush, Al Gore meets with fund-raisers and activists in San Francisco next week.”

The item came in the immediate aftermath of Alexander’s appearance last week, with former Vice President Al Gore, at a political seminar in Nashville.

At Friday night’s local reception for nonagenerian John T. Williams at the home of Shelby County Mayor Jim Rout, Bryant referred to the matter.

“I wondered what he [Lamar] was doing giving all that free publicity to Al Gore. Now it seems obvious he had another motive,” Bryant commented wryly.

The congressman has said a number of times that he will run for the Senate if Thompson, who seems increasingly reluctant to make another race, opts out. The WSJ item was the first indication that Alexander’s thinking was moving in the same direction.

If the former governor turns out to be serious and is given the opportunity to run by means of a Thompson withdrawal, it will constitute something of an irony, in that Bryant was once thought to be pitted against his Tennessee colleague, 4th District Rep. Van Hilleary for either a Senate or a gubernatorial race.

Bryant defused that showdown in February with a statement that he would not run for governor. That, coupled with Thompson’s renunciation of his own gubernatorial ambitions, in effect divided the stateside electoral turf between Bryant and Hilleary, with Bryant gaining de facto squatter’s rights on a Senate bid.

Alexander’s hint now complicates that scenario.

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WHY IS THIS MAN RUNNING?

The Shelby County mayoral candidate whom most observers see as the frontrunner in the Democratic field so far, Bartlett banker Harold Byrd, led a group of supporters on a run through Binghampton Saturday morning.

The run started at Lester Community Center and made stops at the neighborhood’s Habitat for Humanity houses and at East High School. Among the Byrd supporters on hand were ex-University of Memphis basketballer Billy Smith and Memphis school board member Sara Lewis.

Byrd’s two declared Democratic opponents so far are State Senator Jim Kyle and State Representative Carol Chumney. Shelby County Public Defender A C Wharton could also enter the race, altering the picture significantly.

— JACKSON BAKER

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JOHN T. WILLIAMS

John T. Williams, who claims numerous friendships across party lines, got birthday greetings Friday night from (left) Sandy Rout (wife of Shelby County Mayor Jim Rout and Cyndi Bryant, wife of 7th District U.S. Rep. Ed Bryant.

Among those paying tribute at a packed birthday celebration at the Routs’ home was Governor Don Sundquist, who quipped, “This is easier than passing tax reform!.”

President Bush sent greetings, as did U.S. Senators Fred Thompson and Bill Frist.

Williams, who once ran for Congress unsuccessfully against Ray Blanton (later governor of Tennessee and still later an indicted felon), likes to remind people that he was an early suitor of Pauline LaFon, who later became the wife of Albert Gore Sr. and still later the mother of former Vice President Al Gore.

— JACKSON BAKER

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ON THE MAYORAL FRONT

Opinions differ as to why Shelby County Mayor Jim Rout chose not to run for reelection next year.

Rout himself offered “family” considerations as the predominant ones. Some maintain that the mayor simply recognized the enormity of the county’s long-term fiscal dilemma and wanted no more of it.

(Some measure of how volatile that consideration might be came from county school board president David Pickler, who — without mentioning Rout — had, in an interview before Monday’s county commission meeting, condemned the “catastrophic results” of a four-year hiatus in property tax increases — from 1994 to 1998– and the wholesale awarding of PILOT — i.e., payment-in-lieu-of-taxs — prerogatives to new industries.)

There are those, too, who maintain that Rout had consulted polls which showed him losing in 2002 to a high-profile Democratic nominee.

Word comes from the mayor’s camp that the latter was not the case, that such polls as had been commissioned and analyzed by the mayor showed Rout overcoming any of several likely Democratic opponents by a 4- or 5-point margin.

Of course, that’s the usual spread assigned to the margin of error in most polls.

* Probate Court Clerk Chris Thomas has made a point lately of advertising his availability for the office of Shelby County Mayor. Shortly before Rout’s announcement of non-candidacy last month, hints of his interest in running were communicated from sources that were anonymous but clearly close to Thomas.

The Probate clerk’s prominent — and early — presence at Rout’s announcement ceremony, while a neutral fact in and of itself, compounded speculation about Thomas’ plans. So it was no surprise that Thomas announced the official creation of an exploratory committee last week.

In his appearance Saturday before the arch-conservative regulars at the Dutch Treat Luncheon at the Audubon Cafe on Park Avenue, Thomas styled himself a “total conservative” (i.e., in both the fiscal and social senses), and therein lies his dilemma.

With the voting population of Shelby County split so visibly right down the middle between Republicans (mostly white) and Democrats (mostly black), a premium is necessarily placed on a candidate’s ability to capture cross-over votes.

Thomas indicated his awareness of that when, faced with a question from the Dutch Treat audience about the school funding issue, he gave a reply that closed no doors.

But he will stay reasonably close to his ideological base — both for strategic and ideological reasons. Still in his ’30s, Thomas is something of a a true believer, a Golden Boy of the Right.

For years he backed the presidential ambitions of Pat Buchanan, as an example, and, during his tenure on the Memphis school board, as he recounted Saturday, he was an outspoken advocate for the idea of “moral” instructon in the public schools.

Not only might his orientation (which Thomas and his supporters would prefer to see as adherence to principle) restrict his natural constituency, but he has another problem on his hands.

Marilyn Loeffel, Thomas’s only conceivable rival for the affections of Shelby County’s ultra-conservative populaton, is herself still thinking of a mayoral race. Moreover, Thomas’ professions of interest had not, as of last week, anyhow, dissuaded her from such thoughts.

Clearly, the presence of both Loeffel and Thomas in next year’s Republican primary would seem to nullify the hopes of either, in that a dual candidacy would clearly fracture the common ideological base of support.

Loeffel, however, thinks that she has outgrown such type-casting in the three years since her election to the commission as a spokesperson for Cordova and its predominant streak of conservative populism.

“The opportunity to serve on a body that considers the point of view of all segments is a broadening experience,” Loeffel maintained recently. “You begin to see things from other people’s perspectives, and you have to keep in mind what serves the greater interests of the community.”

That sounds like the rhetoric of a candidate who thinks she can escape her political label well enough to capture middle-of-the-road votes. She, after all, is a woman, and recent elections — particularly judicial ones — have seemed to demonstrate that there is a women’s voting bloc significantly greater than the number of voters who have a knee-jerk aversion to a woman’s serving in office.

But her voting record on the commission may serve to limit her voter potential as severely as Thomas’ ideological pronouncements might limit his. Loeffel has become so predictable a “No” vote on fiscal issues that every new utterance of the N-word, coupled with a characteristic bob of the head, seems to be a video replay of the all the ones that have gone before.

And Chairman James Ford‘s insistence on pronouncing her name “low-ful,” instead of the correct “lef-ful,” which he must have heard several hundred times, may be at least a sidewise indication that something about her doesn’t dig as deeply into public consciousness as a mainstream candidate would need to.

* A sleeper candidate — but one who, on the strength of his recent achievements, should be taken seriously — is county commissioner Tommy Hart, who has confided to friends and colleagues his interest in becoming county mayor.

Asked about his current intentions after Monday’s commission meeting, Hart at first attempted dismissive rhetoric. “Would somebody who had just taken the lead in doubling the wheel tax and who was the 7th vote for a 33-cent property tax increase and the 9th vote for a 43-cent increase be seriously thinking of running for mayor?”

He then went into the “I-have-no-plans. . .” mode of potential candidates who have not yet finalized their “plans” but are known to be in dead earnest.

Acknowledging as much, Hart said at length that he had yet to decide but that, indeed, he thought he had something to contribute and might end up making the race. His interest — along with Loeffel’s and that of another commission colleague, Buck Wellford, who will not run for reelection next year but is still considering a mayoral run — makes a remarkable statement, considering that the commission, in raising both the county property tax and the wheel tax to help fund education, has just made one of the most controversial decisions on a pocketbook issue in local political history.

Maybe it’s arguable that, as Hart and Democratic mayoral candidate Jim Kyle (who as a state senator was in the middle of several legislative controversies) maintain, someone willing to take a stand and demonstrate leadership will gain rather than lose from it. We may yet get to test that thesis.

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Getting a Fit

Monday’s meeting of the Shelby County Commission was a textbook exercise in how an agreement can be reached across ideological, party, and even racial divides. It had as many false bottoms as Houdini’s hideaway, and it finally opened out in a formula that could be both a short-term and a long-term solution to the vexing problem of school funding in Shelby County.

The marathon session, which began at about 2 p.m. and was extended until roughly 7 p.m., saw two things occur that were in short supply when the Tennessee legislature was faced with a similar situation in the last several weeks: 1) Exponents of seemingly hard and fast positions relaxed their rigidity and accepted proposals which they had pronounced as anathema; and 2) they did so at a certain political risk to themselves.

When proceedings began, Commissioners Walter Bailey, Julian Bolton, Michael Hooks, James Ford, and, to a somewhat lesser extent, Bridget Chisholm took positions diametrically opposed to the raising of the county’s wheel tax. As representatives of Memphis’ African-American community, which is mainly working-class and has a high rate of poverty, historically, these Democratic member were well within their rights to do so.

As they pointed out, a wheel tax — which applies the same fees to all vehicles, be they Rolls Royces or eight-year-old Chevettes — is inherently regressive and particularly odious to residents of less well-to-do neighborhoods.

The measure at hand, proposed by Commissioner Tommy Hart, would essentially double the current wheel tax on every class of vehicle except those related to church functions. Hart initially suggested action on the wheel tax some weeks back, as a means whereby the commission could explore a funding formula more diversified is permitted by a single-minded focus on the county property tax, historically the way in which the commission has raised new revenues.

Hart and his colleague Buck Wellford have argued relentlessly that overreliance on the property tax is an injustice to people, especially the elderly, on fixed incomes. This position, too, was a legitimate one from the point of view of the two Republican commissioners and their largely middle-class, suburban home-owners.

What the property tax does offer, as an ad valorem (value-sensitive) means of taxation, is some degree of progressivity. Clearly, the owner of a $400,000 house will pay more than someone who owns a $75,000 dwelling.

The two sides each had stated their positions, which would remain fixed through several hours of debate back and forth. More or less for symbolic reasons, Wellford and Hart held back on the initial efforts to raise the property tax by 33 cents per $100 of assessed value, up from $3.53. Superintendent James Mitchell and county school board president David Pickler had earlier made the case, as they have repeatedly in recent weeks, that this increase would not go nearly far enough toward meeting the school system’s immediate needs and that drastic layoffs in teaching faculty and in parts of the curriculum would occur.

Hart and Wellford essentially agreed but held out for diversification of funding.

Meanwhile, the black commissioners were equally unrelenting in opposition to a hike in the wheel tax. There was one exception in budget chairman Cleo Kirk, who early on had professed that he, too, disdained the wheel tax but that the need for proper school funding was so great that he would hold his nose and vote for the wheel-tax increase. (He got the first sustained round of applause from the roomful of mainly tax proponents for his position.)

At one point in the prolonged back-and-forth, which produced recorded votes too numerous to recall without a calculator (including that rarity on a government body, a vote to adjourn which was rejected!), the wheel tax had gained enough new proponents that only chairman Ford, whose vote is the last in a roll call to be recorded, stood between it and the nine votes it required.

But it failed, and the commission, having approved a 33-cent property tax increase, went on to other matters. An unexpected initiative from Bailey to reconsider the wheel tax opened up new possibilities, however, and, after several huddled conversations (including one in which several commissioners say one of their colleagues made an improper offer to switch his vote in return for favorable consideration on a development proposal rejected earlier), a new round of voting ensued.

The long and the short was that Wellford, Hart, and another initially reluctant commissioner, Morris Hart, not only endorsed a 33-cent property tax increase but went up to one of 43 cents. For their part, Bailey and Ford made last-minute reversals of their opposition to Hart’s wheel-tax proposal. (Chisholm had earlier done so.)

Presto! A budget resolution which the county school officials pronounced almost satisfactory, particularly in light of a third proposal, offered by Wellford. This was a resolution asking Shelby County’s municipalities to formally waive their rights to use any extension of the local-option sales tax for a purpose other than school funding. That could result in $50 million of new funding, which all by itself could fix the school problem permanently, Wellford said.

(Pickler had earlier pronounced the proposal “political suicide” for politicians in the municipalities to embrace but was coaxed by Wellford into a promise to campaign for the proposal with the selfsame politicians.)

™ Opinions differ as to why Shelby County mayor Jim Rout chose not to run for reelection next year. Rout himself offered “family” considerations as the predominant ones. Some maintain that the mayor simply recognized the enormity of the county’s long-term fiscal dilemma and wanted no more of it. (Some measure of how volatile that consideration might be came from Pickler, who — without mentioning Rout — condemned in an interview before Monday’s meeting the “catastrophic policy” of the four-year hiatus in property-tax increases from 1994 to 1998 and the wholesale awarding of PILOT (payment-in-lieu-of-taxes) prerogatives to new industries.)

There are some observers, too, who maintain that Rout had consulted polls which showed him losing in 2002 to a high-profile Democratic nominee.

Word comes from the mayor’s camp that the latter was not the case, that such polls as had been commissioned and analyzed showed Rout overcoming any of several likely Democratic opponents by a 4- or 5-point margin.

Of course, that’s the usual spread assigned to the margin of error in most polls.

Probate Court Clerk Chris Thomas has made a point lately of advertising his availability for the office of Shelby County mayor. Shortly before Rout’s announcement of non-candidacy last month, hints of his interest in running were communicated from sources that were anonymous but clearly close to Thomas

The Probate clerk’s prominent — and early — presence at Rout’s announcement ceremony, while a neutral fact in and of itself, compounded speculation about Thomas’ plans. So it was no surprise that Thomas announced the official creation of an exploratory committee last week.

In his appearance Saturday before the arch-conservative regulars at the Dutch Treat Luncheon at the Audubon Cafe on Park Avenue, Thomas styled himself a “total conservative” (i.e., in both the fiscal and social senses), and therein lies his dilemma. With the voting population of Shelby County split so visibly right down the middle between Republicans (mostly white) and Democrats (mostly black), a premium is necessarily placed on a candidate’s ability to capture cross-over votes.

Thomas indicated his awareness of that when, faced with a question from the Dutch Treat audience about the school funding issue, he gave a reply that closed no doors.

But he will stay reasonably close to his ideological base — both for strategic and ideological reasons. Still in his 30s, Thomas is something of a true believer, a Golden Boy of the Right. For years he backed the presidential ambitions of Pat Buchanan, as an example, and, during his tenure on the Memphis school board, as he recounted Saturday, he was an outspoken advocate for the idea of “moral” instruction in the public schools.

Not only might his orientation (which Thomas and his supporters would prefer to see as adherence to principle) restrict his natural constituency, he has another problem on his hands.

Shelby County Commissioner Marilyn Loeffel, Thomas’ only conceivable rival for the affections of Shelby County’s arch-conservative population, is herself still thinking of a mayoral race. Moreover, Thomas’ professions of interest had not, as of last week, anyhow, dissuaded her from such thoughts.

Clearly, the presence of both Loeffel and Thomas in next year’s Republican primary would seem to nullify the hopes of either in that a dual candidacy would clearly fracture the common ideological base of support.

Loeffel, however, thinks that she has outgrown such typecasting in the three years since her election to the commission as a spokesperson for Cordova and its dominant streak of conservative populism.

“The opportunity to serve on a body that considers the point of view of all segments is a broadening experience,” Loeffel maintained recently. “You begin to see things from other people’s perspectives, and you have to keep in mind what serves the greater interests of the community.”

That sounds like the rhetoric of a candidate who thinks she can escape her political label well enough to capture middle-of-the-road votes. She, after all, is a woman, and recent elections — particularly judicial ones — have seemed to demonstrate that there is a women’s voting bloc significantly greater than the number of voters who have a knee-jerk aversion to a woman’s serving in office.

But her voting record on the commission may serve to limit her voter potential as severely as Thomas’ ideological pronouncements might limit his. Loeffel has become so predictable a “No” vote on fiscal issues that every new utterance of the N-word, coupled with a characteristic bob of the head, seems to be a video replay of the all the ones that have gone before.

And Chairman Ford’s insistence on pronouncing her name “low-full,” instead of the correct “lef-ful,” which he must have heard several hundred times, may be at least a sidewise indication that something about her doesn’t dig as deeply into public consciousness as a mainstream candidate would need to.

™ A sleeper candidate — but one who, on the strength of his recent achievements, should be taken seriously — is Commissioner Hart, who has confided to friends and colleagues his interest in becoming county mayor.

Asked about his current intentions after Monday’s commission meeting, Hart at first attempted dismissive rhetoric. “Would somebody who had just taken the lead in doubling the wheel tax and who was the seventh vote for a 33-cent property tax increase and the ninth vote for a 43-cent increase be seriously thinking of running for mayor?” He then went into the “I-have-no-plans … ” mode of potential candidates who have not yet finalized their “plans” but are in dead earnest.

Acknowledging as much, Hart said at length that he had yet to decide but that, indeed, he thought he had something to contribute and might end up making the race. His interest — along with Loeffel’s and that of Wellford, who will not run for reelection next year and is still considering a mayoral run — makes a remarkable statement, considering that the commission has just made one of the most controversial decisions on a pocketbook issue in local political history.

Maybe it’s arguable that, as Hart and Democratic mayoral candidate Jim Kyle (who as a state senator was in the middle of several legislative controversies) maintain, someone willing to take a stand and demonstrate leadership will gain rather than lose from it. We may yet get to test that thesis. ™

You can e-mail Jackson Baker at baker@memphisflyer.com.

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ON THE MAYORAL FRONT

Opinions differ as to why Shelby County Mayor JIm Rout chose not to run for reelection next year.

Rout himself offered “family” considerations as the predominant ones. Some maintain that the mayor simply recognized the enormity of the county’s long-term fiscal dilemma and wanted no more of it.

(Some measure of how volatile that consideration might be came from county school board president David Pickler, who — without mentioning Rout — had, in an interview before MondayÕs county commission meeting, condemned the “catastrophic results” of a four-year hiatus in property tax increases — from 1994 to 1998– and the wholesale awarding of PILOT — i.e., payment-in-lieu-of-taxs — prerogatives to new industries.)

There are those, too, who maintain that Rout had consulted polls which showed him losing in 2002 to a high-profile Democratic nominee.

Word comes from the mayor’s camp that the latter was not the case, that such polls as had been commissioned and analyzed by the mayor showed Rout overcoming any of several likely Democratic opponents by a 4- or 5-point margin.

Of course, that’s the usual spread assigned to the margin of error in most polls.

* Probate Court Clerk Chris Thomas has made a point lately of advertising his availability for the office of Shelby County Mayor. Shortly before Rout’s announcement of non-candidacy last month, hints of his interest in running were communicated from sources that were anonymous but clearly close to Thomas.

The Probate clerk’s prominent — and early — presence at Rout’s announcement ceremony, while a neutral fact in and of itself, compounded speculation about Thomas’ plans. So it was no surprise that Thomas announced the official creation of an exploratory committee last week.

In his appearance Saturday before the arch-conservative regulars at the Dutch Treat Luncheon at the Audubon Cafe on Park Avenue, Thomas styled himself a “total conservative” (i.e., in both the fiscal and social senses), and therein lies his dilemma.

With the voting population of Shelby County split so visibly right down the middle between Republicans (mostly white) and Democrats (mostly black), a premium is necessarily placed on a candidate’s ability to capture cross-over votes.

Thomas indicated his awareness of that when, faced with a question from the Dutch Treat audience about the school funding issue, he gave a reply that closed no doors.

But he will stay reasonably close to his ideological base — both for strategic and ideological reasons. Still in his ’30s, Thomas is something of a a true believer, a Golden Boy of the Right.

For years he backed the presidential ambitions of Pat Buchanan, as an example, and, during his tenure on the Memphis school board, as he recounted Saturday, he was an outspoken advocate for the idea of “moral” instructon in the public schools.

Not only might his orientation (which Thomas and his supporters would prefer to see as adherence to principle) restrict his natural constituency, but he has another problem on his hands.

Marilyn Loeffel, Thomas’s only conceivable rival for the affections of Shelby County’s ultra-conservative populaton, is herself still thinking of a mayoral race. Moreover, Thomas’ professions of interest had not, as of last week, anyhow, dissuaded her from such thoughts.

Clearly, the presence of both Loeffel and Thomas in next year’s Republican primary would seem to nullify the hopes of either, in that a dual candidacy would clearly fracture the common ideological base of support.

Loeffel, however, thinks that she has outgrown such type-casting in the three years since her election to the commission as a spokesperson for Cordova and its predominant streak of conservative populism.

“The opportunity to serve on a body that considers the point of view of all segments is a broadening experience,” Loeffel maintained recently. “You begin to see things from other people’s perspectives, and you have to keep in mind what serves the greater interests of the community.”

That sounds like the rhetoric of a candidate who thinks she can escape her political label well enough to capture middle-of-the-road votes. She, after all, is a woman, and recent elections — particularly judicial ones — have seemed to demonstrate that there is a women’s voting bloc significantly greater than the number of voters who have a knee-jerk aversion to a woman’s serving in office.

But her voting record on the commission may serve to limit her voter potential as severely as Thomas’ ideological pronouncements might limit his. Loeffel has become so predictable a “No” vote on fiscal issues that every new utterance of the N-word, coupled with a characteristic bob of the head, seems to be a video replay of the all the ones that have gone before.

And Chairman James Ford‘s insistence on pronouncing her name “low-ful,” instead of the correct “lef-ful,” which he must have heard several hundred times, may be at least a sidewise indication that something about her doesn’t dig as deeply into public consciousness as a mainstream candidate would need to.

* A sleeper candidate — but one who, on the strength of his recent achievements, should be taken seriously — is county commissioner Tommy Hart, who has confided to friends and colleagues his interest in becoming county mayor.

Asked about his current intentions after MondayÕs commission meeting, Hart at first attempted dismissive rhetoric. “Would somebody who had just taken the lead in doubling the wheel tax and who was the 7th vote for a 33-cent property tax increase and the 9th vote for a 43-cent increase be seriously thinking of running for mayor?”

He then went into the “I-have-no-plans. . .” mode of potential candidates who have not yet finalized their “plans” but are known to be in dead earnest.

Acknowledging as much, Hart said at length that he had yet to decide but that, indeed, he thought he had something to contribute and might end up making the race. His interest — along with LoeffelÕs and that of another commission colleague, Buck Wellford, who will not run for reelection next year but is still considering a mayoral run — makes a remarkable statement, considering that the commission, in raising both the county property tax and the wheel tax to help fund education, has just made one of the most controversial decisions on a pocketbook issue in local political history.

Maybe it’s arguable that, as Hart and Democratic mayoral candidate Jim Kyle (who as a state senator was in the middle of several legislative controversies) maintain, someone willing to take a stand and demonstrate leadership will gain rather than lose from it. We may yet get to test that thesis.

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Politics Politics Beat Blog

GORE LEADS DEM CONTENDERS

According to a nationwide Gallup Poll of 1,017 adults conducted Aug. 3-5 ( /-3%):

Overall Registered Voters (sample size 874 [ /-4%])

· 49% said that, “as of today” they “lean toward” Bush; 48% said Gore and 3% had no opinion.

· 42% said yes, they “want Al Gore to run for president in 2004”; 51% said no and 7% had no opinion.

· 5% consider Bill Clinton “to be the leader of the Democratic Party”; 6% said Al Gore; 3% said Hillary Rodham Clinton; 9% said Dick Gephardt; 2% said Ted Kennedy; 7% said Tom Daschle; 1% said Joe Lieberman; 6% said other; 10% said no one; 51% had no opinion.

· Democrats/Democratic Leaners (sample size 490 [ /-5%])

· 6% consider Bill Clinton “to be the leader of the Democratic Party”; 9% said Al Gore; 2% said Hillary Rodham Clinton; 8% said Dick Gephardt; 2% said Ted Kennedy; 6% said Tom Daschle; 1% said Joe Lieberman; 7% said Other; 10% said no one; 49% had no opinion.

· Democrats/Democratic Leaning Registered Voters
· 32% said they “would be most likely to support” Al Gore “for the Democratic nomination for President in the year 2004”; 19% said Hillary Rodham Clinton; 13% said Bill Bradley; 10% said Joe Lieberman; 10% said Dick Gephardt; 7% said John Kerry; 2% said Tom Daschle; 1% said John Edwards; 1% said Joe Biden; 2% said no one; 3% had no opinion.
· Gore Supporters (sample size 156)

· 36% said Hillary Rodham Clinton would be their “second choice if Al Gore does not run”; 20% said Dick Gephardt; 19% said Joe Lieberman; 5% said John Edwards; 3% said Bill Bradley; 5% said Joe Biden; 2% said John Kerry; 3% said Tom Daschle; 3% said other; 1% said no one; 3% had no opinion.

· ABC News/Money Magazine Poll Finds 51% Rate US Economy Positively. An ABC News/Money Magazine poll of 1,023 adults conducted in the month ending August 5, 2001 ( /-3%) found:

· 2% “rate the nationÕs economy as excellent”; 49% said “good”; 37% said “not good”; 12% said “poor.”

· 5% “rate their own finances as excellent”; 60% said “good”; 23% said “not good”; 12% said “poor.”

· 3% said it is “an excellent time to buy things they want and need”; 38% said “good”; 40% said “not good”; 19% said “poor.”

· The ABC News/Money Magazine Consumer Comfort Index now stands at 5, down from 23 at the start of the year.