From The Evans-Novak Political Report, July 30: 2002
Tennessee Governor:
Term-limited Gov.Don
Sundquist (R) wraps up a rocky tenure in which he
fought his own party and has tried many times to
institute a statewide income tax.
Sundquist ‘s actions upset many Tennessee
Republicans and gave early momentum to conservative Rep. Van Hilleary (R)in
his quest to replace him. Hilleary is a popular lawmaker who came to
Congress with Republican Tennessee Reps. Ed Bryant and Zach Wamp, as well as
Sen. Bill Frist in the class of ‘94.
Hilleary ‘s chief challenger is Jim Henry (R),a former State House
Minority Leader and former state party Chairman. Henry has an ideological
base among the moderate Republicans cut from the Lamar Alexander and
Sundquist cloth, and a geographical base of central Tennessee. In fact, when
Alexander announced his preference for Henry last week, it was Hilleary who
went around touting the fact with a press release headlined “Sundquist Seeks
Third Term!”
Hilleary is confident enough in his lead that he refused to debate
Henry
The income tax issue is also prevalent in the Democratic gubernatorial
primary. Nashville ‘s former Mayor Phil Bredensen (D)is unique among the
Democratic front-runners in that he has announced firm opposition to an
income tax. Knox County District Attorney Randy Nichols (D)and former Board
of Regents Chancellor Charles Smith (D)both express openness to the tax.
Bredensen is popular in Nashville, which is a major Democratic base, and
he ran a close race against Sundquist in 1994,giving him high name recogni-
tion
Tennessee Senator
The battle between Rep.Bryant and former Gov.Alexander
has aroused resentment and anger in the Tennessee GOP, After the surprising
announcement by Sen. Fred Thompson (R)that he would retire, Bryant entered
as the underdog and the conservative alternative to Lamar.
But Lamar ‘s name recognition and general good standing with the state ‘s
voters made it tough for Bryant to control the entire conservative base.
Also, many party leaders back Alexander because they think he has a better
chance in November against Rep. Bob Clement (D).
Bryant has made an impressive comeback, and a recent poll he commis-
sioned showed him down 49 to 37 percent, much closer than earlier counts.
His fundraising has been impressive,and his backers in Tennessee and
Washington have been aggressive. Bryant, like Hilleary, happily publicized
Sundquist ‘s backing of Alexander.
Thompson ‘s late decision may have doomed Bryant, however. The four-month
primary did not provide Bryant a chance to develop a big enough name outside
of the district, while Lamar has universal name recognition in the state.
Bryant ‘s best hope is for a very low turnout, but early voting is high,
which favors Alexander. This race will be closer than earlier expected, but
Bryant needed a few more weeks to overcome Alexander and his towering fame.
House of Representatives:Tennessee-4:
A recent poll showed both parties have primaries that are
well within the margin of error in this district left vacant by Hilleary ‘s
run for governor.
Tullahoma Alderman and former Hilleary aide Janice Bowling (R)is neck-
and-neck with former Safety Department Commissioner Mike Greene (R).Neither
has very high name recognition and most voters are undecided. This race,
more than most, will come down to who has the best primary day ground team.
Bowling has more grass-roots connections in the district and so has a very
slight edge.
Recent attacks by the laggard candidates on Greene for his Sundquist
connections also boost Bowling.
.
Whichever Republican wins will face an uphill climb against the winner
of the Fran Marcum (D)v. Lincoln Davis (D)primary. Davis is a State
Senator, a former state Rep. and ran for the House in ‘84 and ‘94.This
gives him a small advantage over Marcum,a well-known businesswoman.
Marcum ‘s TV spots have been stronger than Davis,which will make the race
very tight.
House of Representatives: Tennessee-5:
Democrats are nearly certain to retain this seat, which
Clement has held for 16 years. Former Congressman Jim Cooper, Davidson coun-
ty Sheriff Gayle Ray and State House Assistant Majority Leader John Arriola
lead a 6-candidate Democratic primary field.
Ray has the backing of EMILY ‘s list and has actually called on the femi-
nist organization to “ease up “on their attacks on Cooper. Negative cam-
paigns do not draw out primary voters, and low interest in the up-ballot
Democratic primaries could keep turnout low in this district on a rare
Thursday primary.The low turnout will help Cooper,who has run an excellent
media campaign.
House of Representatives: Tennessee-7:
State Sens.Marsha Blackburn (R)and Mark Norris (R)together
with GOP activist David Kustoff (R)lead the Republican pack for Ed Bryant ‘s
seat, which probably will stay in Republican hands.
While Norris has more cash, Blackburn is the only Nashville-area candi-
date and the only woman in the race –two big advantages in a seven-way
primary. The fiscally conservative Club for Growth is backing Blackburn, as
are some other D.C.-based groups.
