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Free Agency Preview: Speculating on the Final Griz Roster Spots

With the draft over, the next step in the NBA offseason is the free-agent negotiation period, which begins tomorrow.

With 10 players — and four big contracts — already on the books, the Grizzlies don’t have many roster spots to fill or much money left to fill them with.

Here’s an estimate on where the team stands heading into free agency:

Zach Randolph $16,500,000
Rudy Gay $16,460,532
Marc Gasol $13,891,359
Mike Conley $7,180,000
Tony Allen $3,300,000
Dante Cunningham $2,090,000
Quincy Pondexter $1,234,320
Tony Wroten $1,200,000*
Jeremy Pargo $1,000,000
Josh Selby $762,195

Total: $63,618,406
Projected Tax Line: $70,307,000
Room Under Tax: $6,688,594

Qualifying Offers:

Marreese Speights $3,823,362
Darrell Arthur $3,006,216

*Not only is this salary figure on Wroten an estimate, it also hasn’t been signed yet. The Wroten deal might be done soon, but given how close the team is to the tax line when including those qualifying offers, it seems like there would be a chance Wroten’s deal might be delayed until the team goes through free agency.

It’s possible the team could trade or even buy out Pargo to open up a roster spot, but the later would keep his salary on the books and would actually add to an already tight financial crunch by opening up a roster spot without opening up extra money.

If you assume the Grizzlies will try to keep 14 players and factor in Chris Wallace’s suggestion that the team will pursue a shooter and a veteran point guard in free agency, then it seems likely that the four additional players might include two frontcourt players, a point guard, and a wing shooter.

Crucial to factor in: Based on discussions I had with team officials after the draft, the impression I got is that the team will be open to the prospect of exceeding the luxury tax to begin the season, and therefore will consider using their mid-level exception to pursue a shooter and/or point guard. [And since I wrote this, but just before I was set to post, Michael Heisley has now gone on the record to confirm the team’s willingness to use exceptions and exceed the tax.]