If the Pattern Holds: As I’ve already written, the first two games in this series have mirrored the first two games in the San Antonio series. If the pattern holds, then Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol (42 points on 15-34 shooting in Game 3 vs. the Spurs) will settle into a good but not dominant level of production and we’ll be looking at a tightly contested game that could swing either way down the stretch. Though hopefully, this time, it won’t take a Zach Randolph three off a broken play to seal victory.
Extra Possessions as X-Factor: All season, the Grizzlies have overcome their shooting deficiencies and mediocre field-goal percentage defense by racking up extra possessions — offensive rebounding, forced turnovers, taking care of the ball. Against a Thunder team where Kevin Durant can get 30 points against even good defense, that might be even more important.
So far this post-season, the Grizzlies are 3-1 when they win the turnover battle and 2-2 when they don’t. They won it big (-10) in winning Game 1 at Oklahoma City and lost in Game 2 when the turnover differential was even. This will bear watching today.
The Bench Battle: The Grizzlies bench was outclassed in Game 2. Coming home offers better hope in this area, however. Rookie backup point guard Greivis Vasquez scored 20 points and notched 9 assists in three home games this postseason. In five road games, he’s scored 9 points with 8 assists. Similarly, Vasquez’s frequent off-the-bench alley-oop buddy, Darrell Arthur, has had his strongest games at home, shooting 50% or better in all three home games while doing so only once in five road games. The bench could be the difference maker today.
