- LARRY KUZNIEWSKI
- Defending Chris Paul will be a key for tonight’s crucial Game 5.
A high-stakes Game 5 between the Grizzlies and Clippers tips tonight at 9:30 p.m., Memphis time. Here are 10 takes ahead of the action:
1. Homecourt vs. Trendlines: The central mystery of Game 5 is whether what we’ve seen so far is simply about homecourt advantage or whether the series is evolving in a more linear way. The Clipper optimist would say both teams have merely held serve on their home floor. That these two teams are fairly evenly matched, that homecourt has been the tipping point, and that now the Clippers have a 2-to-1 homecourt advantage in a best 2-of-3 series. Could be.
But the Grizzlies optimist would counter that what we’ve really seen is a solid, direct trend, with the Grizzlies growing stronger each game. Consider these trendlines:
Outcome:
Game 1 — Clippers +21
Game 2 — Clippers +2
Game 3 — Grizzlies +12
Game 4 — Grizzlies +21
Rebound Differential/Second-Chance Points:
Game 1 — Clippers +24/+20
Game 2 — Clippers +2/Grizzlies +4
Game 3 — Grizzlies +12/+18
Game 4 — Grizzlies +17/+20
Marc Gasol/Zach Randolph Production:
Game 1 — 29-6-8
Game 2 — 30-15-2
Game 3 — 43-19-4
Game 4 — 48-22-6
2. First Game Fluke?: An extra bit of evidence to the “trendline” theory of this series: Game 1, increasingly, looks like an outlier, not in terms of performance, which is impossible to predict, but in terms of roster usage on the Grizzlies part.
“Foul trouble” — which is not predictable — played a role in the Grizzlies’ rotations, but impacted the two teams equally in the Zach Randolph/Blake Griffin match-up, where each played 25 minutes. Elsewhere, the Grizzlies did things in that game that weren’t totally explained by fouls and that haven’t and almost certainly won’t be repeated: Austin Daye getting first-quarter minutes. Keyon Dooling playing more minutes (18) than Tony Allen (17). Jerryd Bayless’ good shooting prompting 30 minutes of court-time even though his defense was problematic and the team was a -11 when he was on the floor.
Quite literally, the Grizzlies team that played in Game 1 is not the same team that’s played since or will play in Game 5. Unfortunately for the Grizzlies, that game counted.
