We’re three weeks from draft day and no one — including, one suspects, the team’s own braintrust — knows exactly which direction the Grizzlies will take with the #2 overall pick. Which is probably as it should be right now. On the day after the lottery, I laid out the four potential paths the team could take with the pick — trading up for Blake Griffin, draft (and keeping) Ricky Rubio, drafting (and keeping) someone else, or trading down or out (presumably with the rights to Rubio). And at the moment, all those paths still seem to be on the table.
Don’t expect those options to begin narrowing until the final days before the draft — remember, last year the O.J. Mayo trade didn’t really materialize until draft day itself.
As of right now, it seems clear that the team will make an attempt to get up to #1, but pulling off a deal with the Clippers seems like a longshot. I think trading down (or even out) is a likely scenario, but specific deals don’t seem to have emerged yet. (Sacramento is an obvious trade partner, but don’t be surprised to see Amare Stoudemire rumors in connection with the Grizzlies to re-emerge if it looks like the Suns are going to put the star forward back on the market.)
So, for now, let’s assume the team will be drafting and keeping a player at #2 (or at least moving down only a few spots). Who are the most likely picks? Here’s my current educated guess at the Grizzlies’ likely draft board, based on conversations with team insiders, outside media reports, draft combine results, and my own sense of the players:
1. Ricky Rubio: The consensus #2 prospect following the lottery, there’s been a lot of posturing, conjecture, and reportage regarding Rubio’s status relative to the Grizzlies, so let’s set the scene.
At the beginning of the week, ESPN.com’s Chad Ford wrote this:
They’ve made a trip to Spain to woo Ricky Rubio and his family, but I still believe that, short of a trade, drafting Thabeet is the most likely outcome. Even if the front office decides that Rubio is the guy, they have to persuade him to pay a huge buyout to come to Memphis.
From what I can gather, that’s not going to happen. The best option for the Grizzlies is to find a team hot for Rubio and get a couple of great assets for the pick. The problem with that plan is that teams don’t seem willing to give up the farm for Rubio. Lots of teams like him, but not enough to make a blockbuster deal.
