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Beyond the Arc Sports

Griz Roster Prognosis: In Order of Probable Return

A player-by-player snapshot of the Grizzlies’ roster entering the summer, in rough order of probable return:

SURE THINGS

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Mike Conley: Under contract for three more years and with just over $26 million guaranteed left. Conley had a minor breakthrough season that included leading the team in scoring post-Rudy Gay trade and making his first All-Defensive (second) team. He averaged a 17/7 in the playoffs with a generally strong floor game (particularly in the earlier rounds) and showcased an improved floater, though his poor shooting (38/28) went curiously unnoticed. Loose talk that sprouted up early in the playoffs about Conley being a “top five” point guard was a little eye-rolling, but he’s established himself as a quality two-way starter at a key position who is outperforming what was once considered a too-generous contract. A team captain and locker room stalwart who, at 25, still has room for improvement. He’s going nowhere.

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Marc Gasol: Two years and nearly $31 million left. A DPOY who you can run offense through is a rare commodity. Even being conservative, Gasol is a top five center and top 30 player. If he can become a more consistent and assertive scorer — which may require making war with his own pass-first instincts at times — this two-way player at the most premium position can make a strong case to be a Top 10 overall player in terms of real value. As a second-team All-NBA honoree, perhaps he already can. A team captain and locker room stalwart who, at 28, still has room for improvement. He’s also going nowhere.

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Quincy Pondexter: Locked in at $2.2 million in the fourth year of his rookie deal but eligible for a contract extension this summer. Pondexter, as I forecast last spring, evolved into a quality “3D” player this season — a wing role player who is a plus defender and spot-up three-point weapon. But the path was rocky. Pondexter got off to a strong start followed by a semi-serious knee injury and a slump upon regular-season return, but came back around in the post-season, shooting 49/45 in the playoffs overall and 50/48 against the Spurs, where he also bumped up his three-point attempts to more than six a game. If Pondexter builds on his postseason success — and his work last summer developing that crucial corner three suggests he will — he’s a decent bet to double his 6.4 scoring average next season and perhaps push for a starting spot — at two guard if Lionel Hollins is still the coach. An extension this summer is probably unlikely since those early extensions are rare for players at this level.