Last week, the Grizzlies conquered the toughest part of their schedule with a 5-2 record in a murderous seven-games-in-nine-nights stretch. Now, with the team playing its best basketball, with the roster as whole and healthy as it’s going to get, and with the schedule lightening up considerably in the final weeks, only an entirely unexpected collapse is going to keep the Grizzlies from returning to the playoffs this spring. (ESPN.com’s John Hollinger has the team’s playoff odds up to 99.6 percent.)
Starting tonight, with a crucial home game against a Los Angeles Clippers team 1.5 games ahead of the Griz in the standings, the final weeks should be about playoff positioning: Can the Grizzlies move up and secure homecourt advantage in a playoff series for the first time in franchise history?
With that in mind, let’s look at the 10 teams remaining in the Western Conference playoff race: Where they’re at today, how their schedule sets up in the final weeks, and where they may end up:
Team: San Antonio Spurs
Record: 40-14
Games Left: 12
Home/Road: 6/6
Games vs. Elite Teams (above .700): 0
Games vs. Other Playoff Contenders: 7
Outlook: The Spurs play the Lakers three times in their final dozen games, but two of those are at home. Of their six road games, only one — April 17th against the Lakers — is against a team with a record above .600, but that road schedule does include a three-games-in-the-nights set, where you would imagine they will rest their vets in one of those games.
Prediction: I like the deep, focused Spurs to mostly keep up their torrid current pace and ride a moderate remaining schedule to the top seed in the West for the second straight year. Final record: 49-17, first seed.
Team: Oklahoma City Thunder
Record: 41-15
Games Left: 10
Home/Road: 4/6
Games vs. Elite Teams (above .700): 0
Games vs. Other Playoff Contenders: 6
Outlook: The Thunder lost three in a row before getting back on track with last night’s home game against the lottery-bound Raptors. The team’s strength-of-schedule isn’t that bad the rest of the way. They’ve got three games left against Sacramento and half of the playoff contenders they play are of the low-end variety (Milwaukee, Phoenix, Denver). But there’s a five-game road trip in there that starts in Minnesota and then goes to the West Coast for four games.
Prediction: The Thunder lost the season series to the Spurs, 2-1, and that tiebreaker will be the difference. Final Record: 49-17, second seed.
