This morning, ESPN.com published a piece in which a group of eight “experts” offered predictions on where the top NBA free agents will land. On the subject of Rudy Gay, not a single ESPN prognosticator predicted he would remain with the Grizzlies. Four chose the Los Angeles Clippers as Gay’s destination. Two tabbed the New Jersey Nets. And the New York Knicks and Minnesota Timberwolves got one vote each.
It’s been an article of faith — or perhaps just a reflexive assumption — from the national NBA media that Gay will be moving on, and thus anything the Grizzlies do is fashioned into evidence of this. Draft Xavier Henry? No, not because the team needs outside shooting off the bench but because the team needs a Rudy Gay replacement. Sell a late first-round pick for $3 million? Not mitigating the cost of keeping Gay but evidence that the team is too cheap to keep him.
Well, I thought months ago that the inevitable selling of a draft pick was a financial precursor to retaining Gay — a trade-off owner Michael Heisley considered necessary whether fans did or not. And I’m almost certain that the team’s unexpected decision today to not extend a $3.7 million qualifying offer to free agent Ronnie Brewer — thus making him an unrestricted free agent and removing the team’s matching rights — is directly connected to the team’s intentions to retain Gay.
This morning, I would have pegged the odds of Gay being in a Grizzlies uniform next season at about 65 percent. Now, I’d bump that up to about 85 percent.
