When I took my first Grizzlies-specific look at the NBA Draft a couple of weeks ago, I identified the three types of players the Grizzlies might target (particularly with their first pick, at #12) and divided them into groups.
With take two, I’m making my first attempt at ranking all the players the team might be considering. There are seven players I’m taking off the board as all but certain to be gone before the Grizzlies pick: John Wall, Evan Turner, DeMarcus Cousins, Derrick Favors, Wesley Johnson, Greg Monroe, and Al-Farouq Aminu. I had an eighth name on this list the last time — Kansas center Cole Aldrich — but it now appears that Aldrich could drop into the Grizzlies range, so I’m adding him to the Griz draft list.
There is some new information taken into account since my last post: The most important is probably the data that’s emerged from the NBA’s draft combine. The athletic testing results from that event are of only modest interest, but the thorough physical measurements are more important. Secondly, more statistical analysis has emerged, most persuasively John Hollinger’s annual prospect rater rankings. Hollinger’s system misses on plenty of players, but has proven over the years to be a slightly more accurate predictor of NBA success than the actual draft. Finally, I’ve had more time to talk to people who know these players better than I do. I take what I hear from team officials most seriously, but also value the observations of other media members and friends who follow college basketball much more closely than I do.
Below I rank my 10 favorite prospects (for the moment) that have a chance to be available at #12. It is highly likely that four of these players will be off the board when the Grizzlies pick, but it is a near certainty that the team’s pick will come from someone on this list.
This is my own at-the-moment ranking of players I’d like the see the Grizzlies take at #12, not an attempt to guess what the team will actually do; that will come closer to the draft. Given how comparatively low the Grizzlies are picking and how comparatively little college basketball I watched last season, I anticipate my take on this year’s prospects being more fluid than in years past. I’ll revisit this list following the team’s individual draft workouts, when, hopefully, I’ve had a chance to see most of these players up close. I won’t be surprised if this list changes significantly at that time.
As in the earlier draft post, I’m including a parenthetical with each player that includes where they current stand on the mock drafts from ESPN.com’s Chad Ford, DraftExpress.com, and NBADraft.net, respectively.
Grizzlies Draft Board:
1. Luke Babbitt (9, 20, 12): Measured out at just under 6’9″ and with a wingspan just under seven feet. Given his solid rebound numbers in college, this suggests he’s a natural three who’s big enough to be a stretch four in smaller line-ups, the kind of player the Grizzlies don’t currently have and could really use. To put Babbitt’s size/skill combo in more context: He measured slightly taller, slightly heavier, and with a slightly longer wingspan than Darrell Arthur did at his draft combine, and given Babbitt’s superior 37.5 max vertical (the best for any player at the combine 6’8″ or taller), his max vertical reach was five inches higher than Arthur’s. Also had the best lane agility score of all players 6’8″ or taller. Ranked 7th on Hollinger’s draft rater. To reiterate what I wrote in the initial draft post, Babbitt’s college production (50/40/90 shooting percentages) and the video evidence suggests he’s the most legit pure shooter in the draft. And now his athletic and physical markers are backing up the stats to suggest he can be a lot more than just a shooting specialist. Comps: Keith Van Horn/Chris Mullin (NBADraft.net), Chris Mullin (Chad Ford).
