Tag: 2023 mayoral race

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Politics Politics Beat Blog

Poll Shows Turner Lead, Backers Claim

Van Turner. Photo by Jackson Baker.

Citing a new poll conducted last week by the Change Research firm, the People for Justice and Fairness (PJF), an activist group supporting Van Turner for mayor contends that “when Memphians learn about Van Turner, he surges to the top of the mayoral race.”

What that translates into is that Turner led, with a final figure of 23 percent, in a final tabulation of multi-stage polling. In that version, percentages for other leading candidates were: Floyd Bonner, 21; Paul Young, 21; Willie Herenton, 14.

Turner rose to the top once the poll results (a) included the category of “leaning” and (b) included a brief bio of the top candidates (the three aforementioned).

Some observers would call that a “push poll.” As defined in a previous article in this space about another candidate’s self-released poll: “Anyone familiar with political polling would be inclined to associate that procedure with what is called a ‘push poll’ — one which builds a desired outcome into the very form of the questioning. The idea is simple: The better the ‘biography,’ the better the poll numbers. And the skimpier or less positive the bio, the lower would be the numbers.”

Anecdotal evidence would also suggest that Turner’s campaign has made serious advances since gaining several recent prestige endorsements — from Shelby County Mayor Lee Harris, Congressman Steve Cohen, Shelby County District Attorney Steve Mulroy, and state Representative Justin J. Pearson. (Pearson has also made substantial financial contributions to Turner through a Political Action Committee.)

As indicated, the initial stage of the questionnaire totaled answers from respondents who had already made their final picks, and Paul Young led, with the previously mentioned 21 percent.

The numbers shifted when results from those respondents undecided but leaning toward specific candidates were added. Results were: Young, 22 percent; Bonner, 17 percent; Herenton, 16 percent; and Turner, 12 percent.

After the further addition of the bios, Turner ended up ahead, with the previously indicated lead of 23 percent.

The bios added for this third stage of polling were as follows below. (Readers can judge for themselves whether the bios, which seem to be posed fairy neutrally would tend to tilt the voting to a particular candidate.):

“Van Turner, esteemed attorney, Memphis NAACP president, and former Shelby County Commissioner, has a rich background in leadership and civil rights advocacy. He knows that to increase public safety we must fight crime at its roots with improved housing, bolstered education jobs, reliable infrastructure, and economic opportunity. Turner has the proven track record we need to keep Memphis safe.

“Paul Young, President and CEO of the Downtown Memphis Commission, seeks the mayoral office with a vision of improving public safety, bolstering the economy, and revitalizing neighborhoods. Young will use his business background to stimulate job creation, foster local entrepreneurship, and invest in youth. His mayoral agenda also emphasizes tackling blight and enhancing Memphis’s vibrant culture. Young aims to make Memphis a better place to live for all.

“Floyd Bonner, Shelby County Sheriff, will make fighting crime his #1 priority as Mayor of Memphis. Bonner plans to aggressively recruit more police officers, expand data and community policing, and hold accountable the people who threaten our community. Committed to making safety the backbone of prosperity, Bonner is ready to tackle the challenges facing Memphis.

“Now that you’ve read some more, if the general election for the Mayor were held today and the candidates were the following, who would you vote for?“

Factoring into the selection of those to be polled — according to the press release from PFJ, along with Stand for Children, and Movement for Justice — were aspects of “age, gender, race/ethnicity, education, region, and [preference in] the 2020 presidential vote.” The following rundown applies to that last aspect, the respondents’ presidential vote in 2020:

69% Joe Biden, the Democrat
22% Donald Trump, the Republican
1% Jo Jorgensen, the Libertarian
0% Not registered/Too young/Ineligible
8% Did not vote

It should be noted that, of all the mayoral candidates, Turner, a former chairman of the Shelby County Democratic Party, has identified himself most strongly with the Democratic Party and its goals.

The press release states, “With strong union backing and an undeniable momentum growing day by day, this people-powered campaign is poised to shape the future of Memphis to one that is bright for all.”

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Politics Politics Beat Blog

Colvett, Flinn Exit Mayoral Race

Frank Colvett Jr. (Photo: City of Memphis)

District Two city councilman Frank Colvett Jr. has opted out of the 2023 race for Memphis mayor.

Also withdrawing by Thursday’s noon withdrawal deadline was broadcast executive/radiologist George Flinn, who had been a candidate for only one week.

Colvett gave his reasons as follows:

“My family and I have decided that we must come together as a city. The problems in Memphis are too big for us to work in silos. We must all come together and march in the same direction toward a prosperous and thriving Memphis for all Memphians.

“There are too many candidates and too many distractions at a time when we should all be working together.

“After much prayer and conversation with our family and advisors, we are suspending our campaign for mayor and will be speaking with the other candidates over the next few weeks to determine what is best for Memphis.”

Colvett, a Republican, had clearly not succeeded in enlarging on his electoral base. Though he released a poll just last week that proclaimed an optimistic outlook for his campaign, he decided in the end that he had very limited chances for success.

Colvett’s supporters will be seeking other options in the weeks to come, and many of them are thought to be considering Sheriff Floyd Bonner as an alternative candidate.

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Politics Politics Feature

Turmoil at Capitol

Democrats in jeopardy: (from left) Justin Pearson, Gloria Johnson, Justin Jones (Photo: John Partipilo | Tennessee Lookout)

Not since the income tax riots of 2001 has the Tennessee state capitol building in Nashville seen such intensity. Monday’s session of the General Assembly, which included the introduction of resolutions in the House threatening the expulsion of three Democratic state representatives, concluded with the crowded galleries shouting epithets — including “fascists” — at members of the Republican supermajority.

Outside the capitol, worse things were being chanted by massive crowds at the expense of GOP Governor Bill Lee, who, like the Republican lawmakers, was faulted for inaction on gun safety following last week’s gun massacre at a Nashville Christian school.

“Eff Bill Lee!” the demonstrators chanted.

The three Democrats in jeopardy — representatives Gloria Johnson of Knoxville and Justin Jones of Nashville, along with Memphis first-termer Justin Pearson — had gone to the well of the House last Thursday, and, with the aid of bullhorns, encouraged protesters in the galleries to keep demanding action on guns.

A vote on expulsion of the three will probably take place Thursday, along with, equally probably, energetic new protests on their behalf and for gun-safety legislation.

• On Thursday this week, Chancellor JoeDae Jenkins will hold a status conference on suits by mayoral candidates Floyd Bonner and Van Turner against an apparent edict by the Shelby County Election Commission (SCEC) requiring five years of prior residence in Memphis for candidates.

Neither candidate could clear a strict interpretation of the SCEC’s edict, which is included on the Commission’s website via a link to an opinion from former Commission chair Robert Meyers.

Jenkins gave a preliminary ruling last Friday against the SCEC’s effort to include the city of Memphis as a co-respondent against the suits.

• There was some unprecedented attention given to the matter of county contracts at Monday’s public meeting of the Shelby County Commission, and it all started while the body was considering the meeting’s “consent agenda,” ordinarily regarded as routine and largely consisting of pre-screened items.

With Democratic member Britney Thornton in the lead and with fellow Democrats Erika Sugarmon and Henri Brooks, among others, taking part, members kept county financial officers and economic opportunity administrator Shep Wilbun in the well for more than an hour answering detailed questions about each and every contract up for a vote, including many that appeared to be essentially maintenance matters.

The two basic questions were: How many bids were there for the contract? And how many bidders were minority? In most cases there was an obvious and even enormous disparity in the two numbers, which was, of course, the point of the questioners.