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Can the Grizzlies Bounce Back?

CREDIT: Larry Kuzniewski

After three seasons of competing for a playoff spot, this year the Memphis Grizzlies find themselves competing for something more ignoble: the league’s worst record and, thus, best chance of landing the top pick in this summer’s rookie draft.

Grizzlies’ games this season have largely been obscured by the more momentous happenings off the court. Questions about ownership, management, and coaching won’t be resolved until the summer. But, in the meantime, there’s still a lot to learn on the court.

As hard as it can be for fans to come to grips with, losing seasons are sometimes unavoidable. In fact, in rare circumstances — and this sure looks like one of them — they’re beneficial. If ever a season were a case of taking a step back in order to set up a bigger leap forward, this could be it. And that means the questions being asked and answered this season — on the court, in the locker room, and in the front office — may be more important to the long-term future of the Grizzlies than those that confronted a team mired in mere respectability over the recent past. Here is an attempt to address some of those questions.

Was making Tony Barone the team’s interim coach the right move?

The better question might be this: Once the organization determined that Mike Fratello needed to go, what was the alternative?

Sure, the Grizzlies could have promoted one of the team’s assistant coaches, but there’s no guarantee that any of those assistants will return when the Grizzlies hire a new coach this summer and he assembles his own staff. With this season clearly focused on the franchise’s future, it made sense for the team to be guided by someone invested in that future, and director of player personnel Barone, who is likely to return to the front office after this interim coaching assignment ends in April, was the only viable candidate who clearly fit the bill.

Will the Grizzlies trade Pau Gasol during the season?

We’ll find out soon, as the NBA’s trade deadline is February 22nd. No one really knows if the Grizzlies will follow through on Gasol’s trade request this season, but if it happens it will likely be close to the deadline and likely be with the Chicago Bulls, who seem to be the most serious suitor. My best guess is that nothing happens, at least until this summer. But it’s only a guess.

Okay, should the Grizzlies trade Gasol before the deadline?

If the Grizzlies can get a young, proven player of comparable talent (rumored trade options such as Chicago’s Luol Deng and Ben Gordon and Boston’s Al Jefferson don’t quite qualify) or an unprotected lottery pick in this summer’s draft, then it might be worth it. But that isn’t likely to happen.

Instead, a Gasol trade this month would more likely bring a combination of a lesser young player closer to free agency, cap space, and perhaps a lesser draft pick. Since the success of such a scenario would be packed with contingencies (resigning the acquired player to a reasonable contract and making smart use of the cap savings and draft pick) and since the team acquiring the best player almost always comes out ahead in NBA trades, the Grizzlies should be very reluctant to part with Gasol in such a deal, especially since, at age 26, he still seems to be improving.

Because his minutes were limited for several games after returning from a foot injury that sidelined him for most of the season’s first two months, Gasol’s per-game averages still give a misleading impression of his production. He’s averaging 34.1 minutes per game so far this season, but if you translate his stats to the 39.1 minutes per game he averaged last season, his production looks like this: 23.5 points, 10.1 rebounds, 3.6 assists, and 2.6 blocks per game. Gasol’s 54 percent shooting is a career best, aided by improved shooting mechanics that have him converting jump shots at a much higher rate.

After a shaky start on the boards, Gasol’s rebound rate is up dramatically over his previous career norms, and his shot-blocking is also on the rise. Gasol’s assist and turnover production is down from last season’s stellar standards, but this seems to be a result of a shakier team setting.

Gasol’s defensive and clutch-play deficiencies are very real but also worse this season than in the past. The bet here is that Gasol’s improvements are more likely to carry over into next season than his regressions. As a versatile seven-footer just entering his prime, Gasol’s on-court value trumps his trade value. At the very least, the Grizzlies should wait until this summer’s draft lottery and reevaluate the situation based on the results.

Okay, enough about a player who might be traded. What about the player who was traded? Did the Grizzlies make a mistake trading Shane Battier?

It’s too early to pass final judgment on the summer deal that sent the beloved Battier to Houston for rookie Rudy Gay (and, to make salaries match, the perpetually disappointing Stromile Swift). But based on what we’ve seen, I’d say the deal still looks good for the Grizzlies.

Larry Kuzniewski

Rudy Gay

Gay is eight years younger than Battier and has far greater upside. Despite a rocky start to his rookie season, Gay has demonstrated what he’s capable of: He can score all over the court and has the length and athleticism to be a disruptive force defensively. He’s also exhibited subtle improvement, raising his shooting percentage every month of the season.

Reinserted into the starting lineup last week and likely to stay there, Gay’s development will now take its rightful place as the most important Grizzlies story for the remainder of this season.

Losing Battier was a big factor (but not the only one) in the disintegration of the team defense this season, but if this short-term decline nets the Grizzlies not only Gay but also a better chance at landing Kevin Durant or Greg Oden this summer, it will be a coup.

Was the team’s other first-round pick, Kyle Lowry, an early-season mirage or is he really that good?

Sadly, we’ll have to wait until next fall to find out. Lowry’s left wrist — broken in three places early in the season — hasn’t healed as quickly as hoped, and he will not play again this season. On the bright side, Lowry has been shooting and working out with the team, and there’s no reason to think he won’t be fully healed in time for training camp this fall. If you saw Lowry play this season and care about basketball, much less the Grizzlies, it has to break your heart a little bit every time you see him at a game wearing street clothes.

In his brief, pre-injury audition, Lowry proved to be better than could have been imagined. His jumper looked shaky, but he got to the rim and to the foul line with such ease (and shot so well from the line) that he was an efficient scorer anyway. More impressive was his defense, rebounding from the backcourt, and leadership/charisma potential, all of which were elite from day one. If his offense develops — a surer jump shot, an ability to turn those drives into lay-ups and open jumpers for teammates, an expanded arsenal of finishing shots in the lane — he’s got a chance not just to be a starter but a star.

What are we learning about the young frontcourt players?

With vets Jake Tsakalidis, Brian Cardinal, and Stromile Swift seeing increasingly limited minutes, Barone has mostly been rotating rookie Alexander Johnson and second-year forwards Hakim Warrick and Lawrence Roberts through the frontcourt alongside Gasol. And, after Rudy Gay, evaluating these players will be a big story during the season’s final months.

Warrick is the most talented of the trio and has made impressive strides in his second season. Last year, he struggled to finish plays he couldn’t dunk and displayed a knuckleball jumper that would scare small children. This year, Warrick has been far less dependent on dunks for his scoring. He’s finishing plays around the rim and knocking down mid-range jumpers at a much higher percentage than during his rookie season. He’s also improved from the free-throw line.

Larry Kuzniewski

Hakim Warrick is finishing plays around the rim and knocking down mid-range jumpers at a much higher percentage than during his rookie season.

But, at a slender 6’9″, 220 pounds, Warrick’s defense and rebounding deficiencies have been glaring at times. Can he play with Gasol? If not, is he trade bait? Or if Gasol is dealt, does Warrick have a chance to be a legit starter? With Warrick’s minutes likely on the rise for the remainder of the season, he’ll have a chance to answer some of these questions.

Johnson and Roberts have alternated as the starter at power forward since Gasol’s return, though neither really has much business being an NBA starter at this point in their careers. Roberts is a more skilled rebounder than Johnson, but his production in this area is only modestly superior. Johnson is the better athlete and has better potential as a scorer, even if he’s been too willing to launch his funky, high-release jump shot.

Johnson explodes to the rim and dunks, whereas Roberts is weaker going to the rim and is much more likely to have his shots rejected. (A whopping 20 percent of Roberts’ dunk attempts have been blocked this year, compared to 4 percent for Johnson.) Johnson, unlike Roberts, is already under contract for next season and seems to have more potential. For those reasons, look for him to win out in the long term.

Is Mike Miller having a breakout season?

Yes and no. Despite some outlandish shooting exploits, Miller hasn’t really been any better this year than he’s been before. The difference is that he’s playing more and is being better used.

Miller’s minutes are way up (39.6 a game this season compared to 30.6 last season), but his scoring per minute is virtually identical to what it’s been the past two years. And his 43 percent three-point shooting is above his career average but is not quite a career high.

But, this season, Miller’s great three-point stroke is being exploited more than ever before. No Grizzlies player has benefited more from the wide-open style of “Barone Ball” than Miller. In 30 games under Fratello, Miller’s three-point attempts reached double figures only three times. In 22 games thus far under Barone, Miller’s taken double-digit three-pointers nine times. Miller’s average of seven threes a game smashes his previous career high (4.8), and this is the first season in Miller’s career in which three-point shooting has accounted for more than 50 percent of his field-goal attempts.

Miller is still young at 26 and, like Gasol, just entering his prime. He shouldn’t be the second option on a true contender but would be a dynamite fourth option on a title contender. If Rudy Gay develops and the Griz get lucky in the lottery, Miller could become the Grizzlies’ fourth best player pronto.

The remaining question would be: Will he fit? Neither Miller nor Gay is a classic scoring guard. But if Gay develops into a good enough defender to handle the assignment and the Griz can acquire (or develop) a more dynamic point guard, it might work.

What about the rest of the roster?

You had to ask? It’s been a mix of the raw and the cooked. Point guard has been a big problem since Lowry went down. Backup Chucky Atkins is having his best season as a scorer off the bench but isn’t a true point. And starter Damon Stoudamire has missed games with knee soreness after returning from a season-ending injury in December 2005, although, honestly, Stoudamire’s up-and-down production hasn’t been much of a drop-off from what he was doing last season before he got hurt.

The one possible bit of intrigue here is that Atkins and Stoudamire, as proven veterans but definite role players, may be more valuable to other teams than to the Grizzlies. With all the talk of a potential Gasol deal, look for Atkins and/or Stoudamire to emerge as the subject of more trade rumors as the deadline approaches. Either would be useful to a contender (such as San Antonio or Miami) in need of point-guard depth or a shooter off the bench.

The other roster spot worth watching as the season closes out is on the wings, where incumbent Dahntay Jones and rookie Tarence Kinsey could share playing time. Jones has flashed some value as a defensive stopper this season, but his offensive limitations and poor decision-making seem to be a poor fit for the wide-open offense Barone has tried to install. Heading into restricted free-agency, Jones has shown enough to suggest he has an NBA future beyond his rookie contract, but it may not be in Memphis. For that reason, Grizzlies fans may see more of Kinsey as the season progresses.

Can the Grizzlies keep pace with the Celtics in the race for the league’s worst record?

It will be difficult, as Boston seems to be putting an awful lot of effort into losing lately. The Celtics have recently gotten their best player, Paul Pierce, back from injury, but don’t count on an easier Eastern Conference schedule to work in the Grizzlies’ favor. Like the Grizzlies, the Celtics have a fairly even spread of home and road games left to play and many more games against Finals contenders the rest of the way than against fellow bottom-feeders.

Does it even matter? Having the worst record is no guarantee of getting the top pick.

This is true. The team with the worst record in the league will have only a 25 percent chance of winning the NBA lottery. But there are a couple of things to consider: First, the big prize this year — provided both top prospects, Ohio State center Greg Oden and Texas forward Kevin Durant, declare for the draft as expected — isn’t the number-one pick but to have one of the top-two picks. And finishing with the worst record in the league will give a team an almost 50 percent chance at one of those picks. Second, because teams cannot pick more than three spots lower than where their record would put them, having the worst record would guarantee a team a pick in the top four. In other words, if you’re a Grizzlies fan, you might want to openly hope for losing at this point.

What happens if the Grizzlies don’t get a top-two pick?

Despair.

After that, who knows? As it stands, it’s almost unimaginable that the Grizzlies won’t be picking in the top six of this summer’s draft, which means if they miss out on Oden and Durant, there will still be a lot of prospects on the board with star potential in the NBA. Depending on who comes out and where the pick lands in that 3-6 range, you’re looking at a selection of power forwards and centers — Joakim Noah and Al Horford of Florida, Brandon Wright of North Carolina, Spencer Hawes of Washington. All of these players (and several other potential draftees) could, theoretically, be an improvement over what the Grizzlies currently have playing alongside Gasol. Dealing Gasol, unless another center comes back in the deal (which is unlikely), could make seven-footers such as Noah and Hawes more attractive. Regardless, not getting a top-two pick could turn the Grizzlies situation into a true rebuilding plan instead of the quick fix Oden or Durant might signify.

Is this a rebuilding year?

Jerry West claimed otherwise in his press conference after Mike Fratello was fired. But, to a degree, of course it is. The Grizzlies were 6-24 at the time. If you’re not rebuilding at that point, what are you doing?

But here’s the thing: It doesn’t need to be the kind of long-term — sometimes permanent — rebuilding that tends to keep teams in the lottery year after year. The Grizzlies may be facing big questions right now, especially off the court. But the roster, despite the team’s terrible record this season, is actually in pretty good shape. Factor in talent level, upside, cap situation, and draft status, and this team has better raw materials heading into this summer than perhaps in any season since the move to Memphis.

And that’s a big reason why the Grizzlies should be reluctant to trade Gasol in a deal that would net a combination of younger, less proven players, cap space, and draft picks. Despite having one of the league’s worst records, this team is not that far from getting back to the post-season. Get lucky in the draft and smart in free-agency and this team could be a real contender.

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Sports Sports Feature

Tough Enough?

I’m still trying to figure out the 2006-07 Memphis Tigers. Having won nine straight games (through Saturday’s victory over Southern Miss), the Tigers appear to be running away with a second consecutive Conference USA championship. But that’s part of the catch, isn’t it? They’re running away with, well, the C-USA championship.

Sorry, but such title runs don’t capture the attention of SportsCenter. What will this team have to offer come March? Who is the go-to player in crunch time? (What would you have said a year ago about the answer to that question being Jeremy Hunt? Hunt took over the Southern Miss game and essentially won it by himself.) Can Coach John Calipari toughen his young squad in ways C-USA competition cannot?

The answers to these questions await as winter winds gradually give way to spring’s thaw. But with nine regular-season games left to play, here are a few lessons we have learned.

• Reclamation Rules! Among the new slogans I’ve heard Calipari preach this season is, “It’s about the path, not the prize.” If such is the case, the paths taken by Hunt and Kareem Cooper have been as winding — and rocky — as a backwoods ski trail. A season ago, Hunt was “permanently” suspended for a pair of assaults that had the sharp-shooting swingman appearing at 201 Poplar. As for Cooper, the sophomore center was suspended for the first eight games this season for transgressions away from the basketball court. Were it not for his teammates making a public appeal, Cooper may well have played his last game as a Tiger.

Cutting to the present, Hunt is the team’s second-leading scorer (13.9 points per game) and one of the top sixth men in the country. Cooper has embraced the role of Joey Dorsey’s backup and played so well that highly touted freshman Pierre Niles has been a casualty of limited minutes. Cooper’s soft hands — particularly evident on his lefty hook shot — complement the fearsome play of Dorsey and create matchup problems for Memphis opponents that can’t go as large off the bench.

• Rebounding Wins. Duh. There have been but four games this season in which the Tigers were out-rebounded — against Georgia Tech, Tennessee, Arizona, and Southern Miss. Three losses and a game Memphis should have lost. The Tigers are easy to brand as “small,” considering the number of guards (six) they have in their nine-man rotation. But Dorsey has averaged just under 10 boards a game, Robert Dozier is pulling down almost six per contest, and Chris Douglas-Roberts is one of the best rebounding guards ever to wear a Tiger uniform. Add Cooper to the mix (more than five rebounds a game off the bench), and you have a team that can clean glass with the best of them. Well, at least the best C-USA has to offer (that qualifier, once again).

• Guards, Guards, Guards. (Might be a nice rewrite for Mötley Crüe.) Douglas-Roberts, Hunt, Antonio Anderson, Andre Allen, Willie Kemp, and Doneal Mack: six push-it-up playmakers crammed into a total of 200 player minutes per game. While it may have fans checking the scoreboard to remember who’s in and who’s out, Calipari is enjoying the luxury of substituting immediately for any ball-handler who isn’t getting the job done at either end of the floor. With their top scorer (Douglas-Roberts) forced to the bench with an ankle injury early in the January 16th UAB game, Calipari utilized Mack for 20 minutes and got seven points and three assists out of the exchange.

“I told Chris,” said a smiling Calipari after the game, “you better be worried about your position right now, if that kid plays like that.”

Through Saturday’s win, Kemp, Allen, and Anderson have combined for 190 assists and only 100 turnovers. For some perspective, consider that last season, Darius Washington — the team’s starting point guard — had 110 assists and 111 turnovers. It’s the kind of efficiency that lets a coaching staff sleep well at night. And the kind of team play that helps a fan keep hope in his hip pocket, however many other questions remain to be answered.

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Sports Sports Feature

Progress Report

CREDIT: Larry Kuzniewski

At 5-16, the Grizzlies have been terrible. But astute fans knew that this season wouldn’t be measured by wins and losses. More distressing is that the team’s best bet for the future — rookie Rudy Gay — has gotten off to a similarly shaky start.

ESPN.com‘s John Hollinger, in labeling Gay “spectacular but not solid” last week, wrote in part: “I had high hopes for Gay, but so far I’m underwhelmed. The key is his shooting — at 37.7 percent from the floor, he’s been much less accurate than expected based on his results at Connecticut. He also hasn’t done much to dispel the doubts about his motor, as he’s tended to settle for jumpers rather than attacking the rim.”

This is a fair, but partial, assessment: First, there are things you miss when you don’t watch a player daily. Recently, Gay has shown small signs of progress that should pay bigger dividends over time. He’s begun moving the ball better; after garnering only two assists in his first 10 pro games, Gay tallied 11 over his next 10. And after struggling to maintain control of the ball in the face of contact, Gay has done a better job protecting the ball.

The rookie has also shown great promise as a one-on-one defender, the one vast area of the game that Hollinger’s phalanx of advanced stats don’t measure, and is already a disruptive force, using his length and athleticism to produce deflections, steals, and blocks.

But, subtleties aside, there’s no obscuring that Gay has struggled early on. His production is certainly not what fans were expecting.

Twenty games into a rookie season for a 20-year-old player is far too early to panic, but it’s not too early to allow that Gay’s projected stardom isn’t assured.

One thing is certain though: There’s also a team component to Gay’s struggles.

Gay has been at his best this season when he’s been able to get a steal on the defensive end and take off for the basket. The Grizzlies haven’t had a wing player convert his own takeaways into fast-break buckets like this since James Posey’s magical 2003-04 season, and Posey didn’t finish these plays like Gay does. Last weekend, Gay’s coast-to-coast steal and poster-worthy dunk on Clippers behemoth Chris Kamen was the clear highlight of an otherwise blasé game. This is the “spectacular” that Hollinger says obscures the lack of solidity in Gay’s game, and he’s right. But in a different team context, I suspect you’d see the spectacular a lot more often.

A quarter of the way into his rookie season, a couple of things about Gay’s offensive game have become clear: He’s much more comfortable and effective in the open floor than within a halfcourt offense. And he’s much better at finishing plays than starting them. Gay’s at his worst isolated 20 feet from the basket, where his suspect ball-handling ability and rookie tentativeness — not, as Hollinger cites, his “motor” — invariably leads to a pull-up jump shot instead of a foray to the rim.

To really thrive, Gay needs to be able to run, and he needs to play with a point guard who can get him the ball in the right spots. More than anyone except perhaps Grizzlies ticket buyers, Gay has been hurt by the devastating loss of fellow rookie point guard Kyle Lowry.

But Gay and anxious Grizzlies fans can take solace in this: Last winter, then-rookie Hakim Warrick looked just as lost and even more overmatched than Gay does right now. But after a year of seasoning, Warrick has been a breakout player in his second campaign. It might take Gay just as long, but it’s a good bet that breakout will come.

For more on the Grizzlies, see MemphisFlyer.com/grizblog.

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Sports Sports Feature

Marks and Smarts

CREDIT: Larry Kuzniewski

For five seasons, being a fan of the Memphis Grizzlies was simple: Watch the games and root for your team. But this season, fans are getting their first strong taste of how complicated team building can be in the NBA.

Everyone’s instinct, from the front office to the court to the stands, is to win every game possible. But this season, the reality for the Grizzlies is that more than a little losing, especially if done the right way, could be in the team’s best interests. The pot of gold isn’t an elusive playoff victory; it’s a high draft pick.

This somewhat unnatural dynamic has divided Grizzlies fans. To borrow a concept from the world of professional wrestling, you can separate Grizzlies fans this season into “Marks” and “Smarts.” In the wrestling world, fans who voluntarily suspend disbelief and watch matches simply to see who wins are dubbed Marks. Fans who embrace the fakery and are interested in who wins because they’re analyzing how the scripted action is meant to court the Marks are called Smarts.

A similar schism is developing among Grizzlies fans this season, with Marks helplessly hanging onto an honest desire to see their team win — because that’s what fans do. Smarts, by contrast, are watching this season with a different set of criteria, knowing that, in the long run, developing young talent and securing a high pick in next summer’s loaded rookie draft are probably more meaningful than wins and losses this season.

On Sunday, the day after the Grizzlies lost an ostensible heartbreaker to the Miami Heat, a game in which former Griz fan-fave James Posey delivered the dagger with a buzzer-beating, game-winning three-pointer, a friend and fellow Griz fan (definitely a Smart) called to exclaim that it had been the perfect Grizzlies game for this season. It was competitive and exciting. Key young players had played well. And, crucially, not only did the Grizzlies lose, they did so in a way that “none of the fans [by which my friend meant the Marks] can get mad at the team about.”

In Smart terms, the whole season has been a win-win so far. The Grizzlies have the worst record in the league but have been competitive. Second-year forward Hakim Warrick has taken a dramatic leap forward. Fellow sophomore forward Lawrence Roberts and now-or-never swingman Dahntay Jones are establishing themselves as valuable role players. High-profile rookie Rudy Gay has flashed spellbinding all-around skills. And rookie point guard Kyle Lowry, before fracturing his wrist, proved to be better out of the gate than anyone imagined.

Of course, these distinctions aren’t as clear-cut as they sound. Most Marks understand that this year’s Grizzlies team, beset by injuries and in the midst of a roster transformation, is unlikely to return to the post-season and could really use the infusion of a future star that the combination of heavy losses and luck could provide. But they can’t help but root for every win and get upset at every loss. That’s what fans do.

And most Smarts are Marks at heart. No matter how much you might focus on the big picture, when a moment happens like Posey’s dagger, you’re deflated, right along with the Marks. For Smarts, this Griz season is a conflict of head and heart: You spend games rooting for the team to win — you can’t help it — only to be relieved when your irrepressible desires are thwarted.

For more Grizzlies coverage throughout the season, see “Beyond the Arc” at MemphisFlyer.com/GrizBlog.

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Sports Sports Feature

Encore Performance?

CREDIT: Larry Kuzniewski

The number 16 has become rather sacred in the world of college basketball. If your team reaches the second week of the NCAA tournament in March — the Sweet Sixteen — you can count the season a success. With that spirit in mind, here are 16 questions to be answered in the months ahead by the 2006-07 University of Memphis basketball program.

• What kind of carryover can we expect from last season’s 33-4 performance? How about zippo? Nada. The old goose-egg factor. The U of M enjoyed its finest season in more than a decade in 2005-06, but the style and flavor of this year’s team could hardly be more different. With the departure of three stars, the team has lost 53 percent of last year’s scoring. Rodney Carney (an All-American), Shawne Williams (C-USA’s Freshman of the Year), and Darius Washington were John Calipari’s first three options on offense a year ago, leaving Chris Douglas-Roberts as the top veteran scoring threat on this year’s team. Add to all this a freshman point guard — Bolivar’s Willie Kemp — establishing a tempo to his liking, and you have some growing pains certain to bite before conference play begins in January. So raise the C-USA championship banner from a year ago, toast the Elite Eight appearance one last time. And move on to a new season and new team.

• Is the U of M a renegade program? Before you get hot and bothered over such a question even being raised, consider some variables: The national media loves a whipping boy in college basketball. The ingredients for such a program are the following: a highly paid, high-profile coach, plus consistent dominance in a mid-level conference, with a mixture of one-and-done — or two-and-done — stars leaving school early. (See UNLV in the 1980s, Cincinnati in the 1990s.) Now, the big difference between previous whipping boys and Calipari’s program is that the U of M has kept itself off the NCAA sanctions list. With the return of Jeremy Hunt (by every definition to this point, a renegade player), the Tiger program needs to aim high — on and off the court — to avoid this label. The suspension of Kareem Cooper before the season’s opening tip sure doesn’t help matters.

• What does the return of Jeremy Hunt mean for the U of M program? To begin with, it means a new definition of the word “permanent” (as in “permanently dismissed”). It means the Tigers will suit up a player whose case involving the assault of his former girlfriend won’t be dismissed — permanently — until just before the Conference USA tournament opens in Memphis. It also means the Tigers will have a graduate coming off their bench, Hunt having earned his degree in August. (More than former stars Antonio Burks or Rodney Carney can claim.) Yes, Hunt is a renegade seeking redemption, and he might receive his share of boos at FedExForum. Just how much he contributes to the success of this year’s team will depend on how healthy he is — a major variable for Hunt — and just how forgiving his coach and teammates prove to be.

Larry Kuzniewski

Sophomore guard Chris Douglas-Roberts

• Why isn’t Darius Washington still a Memphis Tiger? Put your ear to the ground on this one and you’ll get answers as varied as the dribble-drives Washington utilized over his two seasons at FedExForum: bad advice from his father; bad advice from Calipari; pro ambitions with more hubris than substance; the need — as a new father — for a source of income, any source of income. Washington is going to be a sad footnote to the Calipari era of Memphis basketball. Perhaps he was expendable with the arrival of Kemp. But what price will Washington (and his family) pay for this divorce?

• Who will be the leader of the 2006-07 team? Washington’s departure will leave more of an intangible void than it will on the floor. Rodney Carney was a brilliant four-year star, but he was as quiet as a church mouse after the opening tip. Shawne Williams, alas, might have grown into a leader, but he’ll have to do that now as an Indiana Pacer. Sophomore guard Antonio Anderson has the demeanor of a floor leader, if not the position for it. Look for Andre Allen to point the way for this year’s squad, even if he’s coming off the bench for the precocious Kemp. Emotion counts for a lot in college hoops. Washington, as all of Tiger Nation remembers so well, wore emotion like Superman’s cape. When chests need punching this winter, the fist will likely be that of Andre Allen.

• What is John Calipari’s agenda? All those North Carolina State rumors last spring certainly didn’t hurt the sale tag for Conference USA’s highest profile. Entering his seventh year in charge of the Memphis program, Calipari has six 20-win seasons, an NIT championship, an NCAA regional final, two conference players of the year, and four conference freshmen of the year under his belt. So what’s left to prove? Calipari’s been given everything he’s asked for at the U of M, so it’s easy to understand a comfort zone, even as far from his native Northeast as the 47-year-old coach may be. And with the Final Four within sniffing distance just last spring, Calipari’s mission of making Memphis a “national program” is being realized. The U of M will not be John Calipari’s last coaching job. But for now, if it ain’t broke …

• Who might surprise us on this year’s team? Regardless of their prep credentials, freshmen are unknown variables, so we’ll scratch Kemp, Hashim Bailey, and Pierre Niles off this list. But keep an eye on Robert Dozier. Among the five ballyhooed freshmen who arrived on campus a year ago, Dozier brought the least fanfare. But he developed into a major contributor off the bench with his rebounding skills and — considering his size — nice offensive touch. He’s the kind of player who will never be your star of the game, but when you check the stat sheet, it’s 12 points and eight rebounds, one night after another. It’s not unreasonable to consider Dozier an all-conference candidate.

• Which player can the Tigers not win without? Joey Dorsey. A true center is the rarest commodity in college basketball today: a player with size and strength, a shot blocker on defense, more comfortable with his back to the basket on offense. That’s Joey Dorsey, folks, and there’s no reason he shouldn’t aspire for all-conference honors this season. Late last season, after a win over a game UTEP team at home, Calipari said the following: “You’ve got to learn to play when guys are bumping and grinding, if you really want to do something unique. Every team we play is going to get rougher and more desperate.” If there is such a thing as a Calipari mantra, “Play Tough” is it. No one will provide more toughness for the 2006-07 squad than their 6’9″, 260-pound junior from Baltimore.

Larry Kuzniewski

Sophomore guard Antonio Anderson

• Does Memphis own the C-USA Freshman of the Year trophy? You might say that, just don’t be looking for any Four-Year Player of the Year hardware. Dajuan Wagner in 2002. Sean Banks in ’04. Darius Washington in ’05. Shawne Williams last season. (We hardly knew ye!) Kemp will be among the leading contenders for the league’s rookie-of-the-year honors, but here’s hoping he becomes the first such honoree under Calipari to enjoy a Senior Night.

• Will immaturity catch up with this year’s team? Some would say it has already. Incidents involving Dorsey and Bailey have already made headlines and raised eyebrows. When Anderson and Douglas-Roberts stepped forward and defied convention by pointing fingers at the transgressors — and away from the “good guys” on the team — you had to wonder about the cohesion of this young squad. When sophomores are the vocal leaders before the season’s first tip-off, how much maturity can be expected?

• Do the Grizzlies help or hurt the Tiger program? Having shared an arena (two, actually) for five years now, this is a matter still worthy of debate. It goes without saying that good basketball — on any level, including the local prep hotbeds — benefits any group that sells basketball tickets. So the Grizzlies bringing the finest pro players to town has only heightened Memphis’ reputation as a basketball-crazed city. On the other hand, when you’re budgeting your discretionary income and it comes down to the Grizzlies and Spurs on a Tuesday night or the Tigers and UTEP on a Thursday, unless your loyalty to the city’s flagship university runs out your ears, you’re heading for the NBA game. All of which places a premium on, yes, the coach of the U of M program. If you doubt Calipari sells tickets, you’re probably still convinced the Mighty Miss flows north. And it’s why the U of M has met each and every one of Coach Cal’s salary demands … so far.

• Why is Tony Barbee laughing? Only 36 years old, the new head coach at UTEP suddenly has a springboard to what should be a long and successful coaching career. Having played for Calipari at UMass and served as an assistant at the U of M for six years, Barbee has a grasp on the Cal way of doing things and in some respects is ahead of where Calipari was at this stage of his career. (UTEP has a higher historical profile than UMass did upon Calipari’s arrival in 1988.) One of the most heartfelt handshakes of the season will come on March 1st, when the Tigers visit El Paso.

• Which home games should not be missed? Ole Miss (December 9th) and Cincinnati (January 4th) are sure to draw big crowds to FedExForum, but if I’m buying the tickets, it’s a pair of late-February conference showdowns that get my attention: February 22nd vs. Rice and February 25th vs. Houston. Within a four-day period, you’ll be able to see all five preseason all-conference players in action: Dorsey and Douglas-Roberts for the home team, the Cougars’ Oliver Lafayette and Lanny Smith, and the preseason player of the year, Rice’s Morris Almond. Along with UAB, these are also two of three teams in C-USA that might challenge Memphis for the league title.

• What do Zach Curlin and Dana Kirk have to do with this season? With 25 wins, Calipari will move past Kirk (158) and Curlin (172) for second in Tiger basketball history. Over his six seasons in Memphis, Calipari has averaged just under 25 wins a year. (Larry Finch remains at the top of the list with 220 wins.)

• Who’s next in the 1,000-point club? In each of the last four seasons, at least one Tiger scored his 1,000th career point. Entering the 2006-07 campaign, the closest active Tiger is Jeremy Hunt with 625 points. Unless Hunt averages more than 12 points a game, look for this streak to come to an end.

• How deep into March will this team play? With the number of variables introduced each and every season, forecasting the NCAA basketball tournament in November is a Herculean gambit. But here’s where I see this year’s Tiger team coming up short: fight or flight. We tend to forget that the magical run Memphis made last year actually began with the team’s unlikely run to the C-USA tournament championship game in 2005 (the epic loss to Final Four-bound Louisville, when Washington missed his free throws at game’s end). Players like Washington, Carney, and Dorsey entered last season with a competitive edge toughened by heartbreak. Add the best freshman class Calipari has recruited and you had a concoction for greatness, at least on the scale measured by C-USA. With the defections of Washington and Williams and off-court distractions already part of the story for 2006-07, the Tigers are playing uphill before Thanksgiving. Veteran leadership is a must for a lengthy dance in March. Don’t expect this year’s club to reach that fabled second weekend.