What to do in a year in which I watched very little college basketball, the Grizzlies stopped letting media in to see draft workouts, and the team has zero picks in the Top 40? Nerd out on stats, profiles, video scouting reports, and conversations with people who know a lot more about this draft class than I do.
I’m not a draft analyst, but I’ll play one for the next 2000 words in an attempt to get a handle on what the Grizzlies might do Thursday night and what they should do.
GENERAL GRIZZLIES DRAFT STRATEGY
There’s been some suggestion that the Grizzlies may try to get into the first round on Thursday night. I’m all for that, but also somewhat skeptical of it happening. There seem to be plenty of teams willing to move off picks, but most seem to be looking for a future pick in return and it’s very difficult for the Grizzlies to meet that price given the picks they already owe from past trades.
It’s hard to see the Grizzlies obtaining a first-round pick in a cash exchange, a practice that seems to be dying out. Might a combination of the #41 and cash move the Grizzlies into the first round? Maybe. But I doubt it. The best bet for obtaining a first-round pick might be in a deal involving an existing player, with Tony Wroten Jr. and Darrell Arthur the most likely to figure. But most teams interested in trading picks are looking to preserve cap space this summer, not fill it up.
If the Grizzlies do keep all three of their picks — #41, #55, #60 — on Thursday, look for them to take at least one “draft-and-stash” international player and at least one prospect with a chance of making next year’s roster. The third pick could go in either direction. It’s very unlikely the Grizzlies would bring three second-round picks into training camp this fall.
In the second round, by and large, teams are simply trying to unearth functional NBA players and don’t usually take specific roster needs into account. That said, I think there are two types of players the Grizzlies would be unlikely to select: True power forwards (such as Jackie Carmichael, Trevor Mbakwe, or Richard Howell) and non-shooting wings (such as Andre Roberson, C.J. Leslie, or B.J. Young).
To give a sense of where these prospects are expected to go I included, in parenthetical form, the rankings for each player on four different “Top 100” lists — Chad Ford, Draft Express, NBADraft.net, and Hoops World.
THREE LONGSHOTS I LIKE
These players all project somewhere between the very end of the first round and the first third of the second round. I’m very intrigued by all three but will be surprised if they’re available when the Griz pick at #41, but it’s possible that one slips.
Mike Muscala (33/34/70/34): I’m a sucker for skilled bigs and this versatile forward/center fits the bill. Muscala does pretty much everything well: He’s got a full array of post moves, can finish with both hands, can shoot with decent range, rebounds, passes, defends. And all this at 6’11” and 230 pounds. So what’s the problem? He’s been doing it all at Bucknell, so there’s a real question as to how well his relatively modest athleticism will translates in the big jump to the NBA.