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At Large Opinion

Poll Dancing

If you’re like me, you’ve spent a lot of time recently reading about — and listening to people talk about — presidential polls. I keep reading and hearing that the race is a toss-up, or worse, that Donald Trump is leading. I don’t buy it. These are the same pollsters who told us Hillary Clinton was a lock in 2016, that Joe Biden would win easily in 2020, and to prepare for a “red wave” in 2022. The polling for those three elections was all over the place and mostly wrong. Polling itself appeared to be broken. What has changed in 2024?

According to a Pew Research analysis, in the 2020 election there were 29 pollsters of record, and nearly all of them used the live-phone-call method. Now that it’s known that hardly anyone, particularly young voters, ever answers an unknown phone call, that methodology is considered unreliable — hopelessly skewed toward lonely geezers desperate to talk to anyone. 

In the wake of the 2022 election’s miscalculations, Pew says most pollsters now use combinations of live calling, emailed opt-in surveys, online opt-in surveys, and “probability based panels,” whatever that may be.

Pollsters then take the results of their surveys of, say, 1,237 people, and “weight” them, using various percentage models, trying to suss out how many young voters will turn out, how many Republicans who pull an early ballot will vote for a Democrat, how many women of both parties will vote for abortion rights, how the large contingent of independent voters will swing, how likely a “likely voter” is to vote. Bear in mind, they don’t know any of this information. They’re estimating these weighted numbers and hoping to get an accurate prediction of election results for 150 million voters by extrapolating, typically, from fewer than 3,000 voters. 

In a New York Times analysis of the 2020 election, Larry J. Sabato, a professor at the University of Virginia discussed how the electorate had changed from 2016: “Trump’s appeal to college-educated whites, especially women, was never very strong. Trump’s character and antics in office sent his backing among this large group plummeting. Blue-collar and rural whites loved it, but their numbers could not substitute for losses elsewhere.” 

Does anyone really think Trump has strengthened his appeal to women and college-educated whites in the past four years? I don’t. And polls, for what they’re worth, show just the opposite has happened.

And consider this: In the 2020 presidential election, population density was arguably the single most-dominant element. Biden won the presidency while carrying only 16 percent of America’s counties. In fact, the most reliable predictor of voting patterns in the United States in recent years is rural versus urban/suburban. And guess which of these is declining in population. Hint: It’s not cities and suburbs. Rural and small-town America are shrinking under the crushing double whammy of corporate farming and the Walmart-ization of local town-square businesses. Trump won 84 percent of America’s counties, but his human voter base is shriveling. Acreage doesn’t vote. I find that encouraging when considering how 2024 might turn out.

Here’s another way to look at the race: Use your own eyes and ears. Look at the large, noisy, rabid turnout for Kamala Harris’ events and contrast that with the half-empty, sad-trombone “rallies” of Donald Trump rambling on for two hours, doing his “Scary Home Companion” riffs as his cult-fans trek to the exits. His campaign reminds me of the Seinfeld “Festivus” episode, with its “airing of grievances” and “feats of strength” rituals. 

Does any of this say “momentum” to you? It doesn’t to me.

Trump has never gotten more than 47 percent of the electorate to vote for him. His “platform” consists of trying to scare his (mostly) white supporters with horror stories about Black and brown people stealing their jobs, eating their pets, taking over cities, and committing horrific crimes. Oh, and LGBTQ people are coming to change your gender and make you marry them. So be very afraid and vote GOP, because we’re like you: Real Americans! 

What percentage of Americans will fall for this pseudo-fascist act in 2024 is still unknown, but it’s never been a majority of us, which is a comfort of sorts. The scariest part, as always, is the waiting. Well, that and the Electoral College. And now I’m worried again. Dang it. 

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News The Fly-By

MEMernet: Preaching Politics, MonoNeon Gold

Memphis on the internet.

Preaching Politics

Federal law says churches could lose their tax-exempt status if they preach politics from the pulpit. That didn’t stop Alton R. Williams from unleashing a sermon called “Seeing the Election Through God’s Eyes” last week. 

In it, Williams painted Kamala Harris (and mispronounced her first name like Trump does) as a socialist, said the government is coming for people’s guns, that one political party (wink, wink) is letting immigrants in (including from the Middle East, which is “nothing but terrorists”), that “they” are setting the stage for a race war between Black and brown people, with abortion “they’ll kill a baby in a minute,” and just so much more.  

Maybe he mentioned Donald Trump over the hour-long sermon. We just couldn’t hang around that long to find out. But the “Why Trump?” section of the church’s website will tell you all you need to know. 

Any cops out there enforcing the Johnson Amendment? 

MonoNeon Gold

Posted to Facebook by Mononeon

MonoNeon gave Trump his unique treatment a couple of weeks ago and it’s simply amazing. The Memphis musician overdubs viral video clips with his bass. For example, Trump’s debate screed about immigrants eating pets transforms into a funky R&B thing with soaring background vocals. 

Categories
At Large Opinion

Faith and Camo

Italian political thinker Antonio Gramsci’s definition of a crisis was, “when the old is dead and the new cannot be born.” Those of us living in the United States are in the midst of finding out whether the new can be born (in November), and whether the old is really dead. A crisis? I’d say so.

One thing is certain: Representatives of the old are having real issues with the potential changes in the wind that were evidenced at the recent Democratic National Convention. Venerable conservative Wall Street Journal columnist Peggy Noonan wrote: “They stole traditional Republican themes (faith, patriotism) and claimed them as their own.”

Former Fox News commentator and Newsmax host Eric Bolling raged: “We’re losing the race! We’re losing the presidency. … The enthusiasm level on the left is overwhelming. They’re trying to say Democrats are the patriots! They’re wearing camo hats with Harris’ name on it! Camo! That’s ours!

Democrats as patriots? How can this be? And camo? Really? How dare they! Camo can’t be woke, can it?

It’s easy to understand the GOP’s pain. For decades — at least since Richard Nixon’s presidency — the Republicans have claimed the mantle of patriotism and the title of “real Americans,” wrapping themselves in the flag, Christianity, country music, family values, and military strength. “America: Love It or Leave It” was their mantra. Guns, flags, the cross, and camo clothes were their primary fashion accessories. 

It worked for more than 50 years, from Nixon on through the administrations of Ronald Reagan, George H.W. Bush, Bill Clinton, George W. Bush, and even through the Obama years, when the nation’s first Black president was accused of being born in Africa, which, to Republicans, is as un-American as you can get. Donald Trump, of course, has literally wrapped himself in the American flag on several occasions. 

That’s why seeing 20,000 “Demoncrats” in Chicago waving little American flags had to have driven them nuts, not to mention the sight of that Harris/Walz camo hat on the heads of hundreds of delegates, the Nashville sounds of Jason Isbell and The Chicks, the nightly invocation of prayers, the pledges to defend our NATO allies militarily and stand up to Putin in Ukraine. It was all turf formerly claimed by the GOP. 

But you can hardly blame Kamala Harris and the Democrats for moving in. The house was empty and Republicans left the door wide open by abandoning — or twisting beyond recognition — their foundational principles. And it all started with Trump, for whom there are no principles, foundational or otherwise, only transactional exchanges. The party has been following his lead since 2015.

Republicans exchanged the American flag for the countless variations of Trump flags flown at rallies, and from MAGA pickups, boats, and front porches. “I pledge allegiance to Donald Trump” being the implied new credo. Family values? See: Trump, Donald. Religion? See: Nationalist, Christian. Country music? See: Rock, Kid. Strong military defense? See: Putin, Vladimir, a murderous despot now openly supported by Trump and his acolytes, including Tucker Carlson, Steve Bannon, Robert Kennedy Jr., most Fox News hosts, Speaker Mike Johnson, Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, and dozens of other GOP senators and congressmen.

The party that once put forth a strong, conservative platform every four years, now has a platform of “whatever Trump says today,” no matter how idiotic or deranged. The party that once spent millions on an election ground game and ad buys in swing states now spends a large percentage of those dollars on Trump’s defense funds and lawyer bills.

The recent polling has been swinging Harris’ way and Trump’s campaign strategists have been urging him to “talk policy” instead of using his rally speeches to air his many grievances, hurl personal insults at his opponents, and brag about his looks. Trump counters that Harris has no policies and has ignored several of the issues he has raised, including the low-flow shower-head crisis, the boat battery vs. sharks controversy, and the problem of solar-powered airplanes that crash when the sun’s not shining. Furthermore, he says, Harris has not had the courage to take a stance on the late, great Hannibal Lecter. And she has the nerve to say Trump is “an unserious man.” What chutzpah!

At any rate, here is where we find ourselves — on the very edge of the approaching hurricane, waiting to learn the course of its final path, waiting to learn the fate of our nation, waiting to discover if the new can be born.

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Cover Feature News

Round One: Shelby County Primaries Election Guide

One of the busiest and most crucial county elections in local history is taking place right now, with early voting that began on April 11th and will end on April 26th. This first round of the local election process terminates on election day — May 1st.

Two primary slates — Republican and Democratic — will vie to select nominees for a chief executive to head county government, along with various county department heads and the members of the 13-member Shelby County Commission. A two-term limit provision in the county charter, coupled with at least one voluntary decision to eschew reelection, means that voters will be electing seven new members to the commission, a majority.

This potential sea change occurs in the middle of serious alterations in the relationship between city and county, with the state legislature threatening to impose some version of de-annexation upon Memphis’ recently added territories, making them once again the county’s financial responsibility — and with the city compounding the dilemma by vowing to make no new sewer connections outside city limits.

A further complication facing county government is a possible carry-over of an ongoing power struggle between current county Mayor Mark Luttrell and the present commission over a commission majority’s insistence on a greater share of fiscal oversight and demand for an independent attorney for the legislative body. Both matters remained snagged on Monday, in this week’s regular commission meeting.

All that being the background, here are the elective positions and the candidates seeking them this year.

Shelby County Mayor — There are serious races among Republicans and Democrats for the right to head county government. The Republican candidates are Trustee David Lenoir, county Commissioner Terry Roland, and Juvenile Court Clerk Joy Touliatos. The Democrats are state Senator Lee Harris and Sheriff’s Department employee and longtime political broker Sidney Chism, who has served both as a commissioner and as an interim state senator.

Although both sets of candidates have been matched against each other in various public forums and the general election race between the two primary winners could well turn out to be a barn-burner, the Republican race has so far drawn the most attention.

From the beginning, Lenoir, far and away the leader in fund-raising, was regarded in most circles as the favorite. An impressive but not flamboyant personality who once was a defensive end for the Alabama Crimson Tide and brought a background in financial services to his office, he has, by most accounts, served competently and efficiently as the county’s chief banker and tax collector and has established various innovative outreach programs.

Roland, a Millington store owner who worked for more than a decade as a rodeo performer, still has roughneck aspects to his personality but is a far more serious (and centrist) public figure than the caricatured version of him in some circles would suggest. Though his position on social issues like abortion and LGBTQ rights is still far to the right of the spectrum, Roland functioned as a facilitator during the year he served as commission chair and was instrumental in calling for a disparity study and establishing the county’s new MWBE (minority and women’s business enterprise) program for equity in county contracts. Along with current chair, Heidi Shafer, he has been in the forefront of the commission power struggle with Luttrell and sees himself at odds with established interests generally.

Touliatos has been fairly low profile as Juvenile Court clerk but has been at the helm during years of significant reform at the court and, as she likes to tell audiences, has steadily worked her way up through a variety of county-government positions. Behind a gracious public exterior, she is a worker bee by nature and served as a vital cog in the successful 2015 election campaign of Memphis Mayor Jim Strickland. Her campaign has stressed such elements as crime control and harmony between the elements of county government.

Lee Harris (left) and Sidney Chism at NAACP forum

and David Lenoir at Rhodes College forum

On the basis of his conspicuous place in the public arena and his unrivaled ability to generate free media, Roland was regarded as the early leader in the GOP race but has lagged well behind both Lenoir (whom Roland calls “Mr. Drysdale” after the banker character in The Beverly Hillbillies) and Touliatos in fund-raising and support from the party establishment.

In one of the race’s late developments, copies of a 1999 petition for divorce by Lenoir’s wife Shannon were distributed anonymously to selected Republicans and members of the media. (The couple did divorce but remarried several years later and make regular church appearances on behalf of issues relating to marital fidelity and mutual support.) At least two independent attempts by recipients to trace the source of the mailout appeared to lead to a member of Touliatos’ campaign group, but Touliatos herself said she had no knowledge of any such involvement by her campaign and said her only awareness of the Lenoirs’ divorce matter came from the fact that she had been one of the recipients of the petition.

There has been conspicuously less sturm und drang between the two Democratic candidates, though at his formal announcement of candidacy last November, Chism (who had been running for a year, more or less, already) accused Harris of being a tool of “the fat boys that make the decisions for this town” and vowed to “beat up on him, morning, noon, and night.” The two were all sweetness and light to each other at a recent forum sponsored by the NAACP and agreed on virtually all matters, including that of establishment “fat boys,” with Harris doing the populist turn this time, condemning most financial incentives (PILOTs, TIFs, etc.) for attracting industry as “transferring tax money to corporate interests.”

The real heyday of Chism, whose involvement with local politics began decades ago, was when he was a Teamster liaison to the worlds of politics and government, and reached its height during the Memphis mayoral tenure of Willie Herenton, his close friend and ally. He was always able to walk the tightrope between a red-eyed populist rhetoric and pragmatic relationships with such mainstream political types as Bartlett banker Harold Byrd and current Memphis Mayor Jim Strickland, and he served briefly in the 1990s as chairman of the Shelby County Democratic Party. Another distinction was that he was elected to serve two consecutive terms as chairman of the county commission. Though after leaving the commission in 2014, Chism has kept his hand in the game and continues to preside over an annual summer picnic for political types, his influence, focused on his home base of South Memphis, is not what it once was. Simultaneously, his support across party lines for political figures like Sheriff Bill Oldham, his current employer, put him in the line of fire for Democratic purists.

Nevertheless, Chism keeps keeping on, though he is up against it in his duel for votes with the relatively youthful Harris, a polished speaker who teaches law at the University of Memphis and has a talent for galvanizing support for issues appealing to political crossover types. During his truncated single term on the city council, Harris led the fight for an ordinance requiring equity in hiring and contracting for LGBTQ individuals, and his abundant list of issues in the state Senate — where he has served as minority leader for that body’s small band of Democrats — have included environmental protection, voting rights, criminal justice reform (in tandem with GOP members), and, once again, LGBTQ rights. He also lent time and effort to the drive to divest his home city (and the state) of monuments to the Confederacy.

Harris wears his ambition on his sleeve, a personality characteristic that may put off some while, to others, it testifies to his candor and determination to have a maximum public impact. He also has done his homework on county-specific problems. Chism may not like it, but Harris is openly regarded by many local Democrats as their nominee-in-waiting. If elected county mayor, he will be reckoned as having good chances to hold his own against whomever the Republicans nominate, thereby ending — or at least braking — a counter-intuitive but all-too-real Republican domination of countywide elections in recent years.

Register of Deeds — Wayne Mashburn, who was term-limited as county clerk, is the lone Republican running. The two Democrats seeking the position are Adrienne Pakis-Gillon, a veteran and well-respected party activist, and newcomer Shelandra Ford. In her campaign appearances, Pakis-Gillon has consistently lamented the fact that the position of Register comes last on the ballot. Presumably she (and Ford) will appreciate that it is mentioned first here.

Sheriff — The position of Shelby County’s chief law enforcement officer is one that places a premium on preparedness, and candidates for it must be certified as eligible under requirements monitored by theTennessee Peace Officers Standards and Training (POST) Commission. The FBI-trained Republican candidate, unopposed in his primary, is Dale Lane, a repeat candidate from eight years ago, who began his career as a Millington patrolman, occupied several administrative positions in the Sheriff’s Department, and in recent years, has served as director of the Shelby County Office of Preparedness.

Two Democrats are vying for the right to oppose Lane in August: One is Bennie Cobb, another prior candidate and the owner of a security and training firm. He is a retired captain from the Shelby County Sheriff’s office. Another, widely considered the favorite in his primary, is Floyd Bonner, who has headed numerous divisions in the Sheriff’s Department and is the current chief deputy to Sheriff Bill Oldham, and carries the endorsement of Oldham, a Republican.

Trustee — Back in 2010, the first of several successive sweep elections for Republican countywide candidates, Regina Morrison Newman, the Democrat who had been appointed to fill the term of the late Trustee Paul Mattila, was a clear favorite. After her surprise defeat, lawyer Newman, a veteran of several financial-management jobs in state and local government, went on to serve as a deputy city attorney before resuming private practice. Aspiring to return as trustee, she now faces two primary opponents, Derrick Bennett, who has a background as an activist in both major political parties and has run for various offices, and Joseph Lee III, a veteran of the Herenton administration in city government, where he served as chief financial officer and later as CEO of MLGW. Newman has her work cut out for her again.

Among Republicans, county Commissioner George Chism, who has a background in mortgage banking is the presumed favorite over Dexter Orman, a self-employed CPA who has his own firm.

Assessor — Both major parties have contests for this key position, charged with determining the correct values for county property and with providing property owners channels for appeal of these appraisals, which form the basis for property taxes.

Republican candidates include lawyer Keith Alexander, a Central Gardens resident and critic of the appraisal process, and Robert “Chip” Truoy, a 32-year employee of the office, whose considerable experience with the appraisal process over the years may give him an edge. On the Democratic side, Melvin Burgess, term-limited after service on the county commission, and a veteran auditor with Memphis/Shelby County Schools, has the edge in name recognition and support over activist Lorie Ingram.

Probate Court Clerk — This is one of those positions that will be contested pretty seriously in August, when the Republican winner is matched against the Democratic candidate, City Councilman Bill Morrison, who is unopposed in his primary. The GOP contest is a three-way affair, featuring incumbent Paul Boyd, former incumbent Chris Thomas, and George “Dempsey” [Summer]. Boyd, an African American and a dedicated Republican activist for years, won the seat in 2010 when Thomas, expecting a countywide Democratic tide, opted to run instead for a safely Republican County Commission district, leaving Boyd to become the beneficiary of a surprise GOP sweep. Predictions on a winner are split, but Thomas has a fair chance of regaining his job.

Criminal Court Clerk — The Republican incumbent, Richard De Saussure III, who was appointed to succeed his former boss, Kevin Key, in 2014, is unopposed. There are three Democrats running: Heidi Kuhn, a Sheriff’s Department employee and model; Carla Stotts-Hills, a longtime party activist and sister of the late Judge Rita Stotts; and a newcomer named Amanda Scott Hill, whose name is close enough to that of the relatively well-known Stotts-Hills that supporters of the latter fear Hill could be the source of voter confusion.

Juvenile Court Clerk — Spirited races are on tap for both the Democratic and Republican primaries. Memphis City Council member Janis Fullilove, Morrie E. “Jimmy” Noel, and Shelby County School principal Harold Smith are running as Democrats. The Republicans are Robert Hill, who serves as an aide to County Trustee David Lenoir, and Bartlett alderman Bobby Simmons.

Circuit Court Clerk — Of the four Republicans running, the clear favorite is Tom Leatherwood, the former state senator and longtime county register, who was term-limited in the latter position. Other GOP candidates are Michael Finney, John Lackey, and Steve Moore. Democrats running are newcomer Temika Gipson and veteran Democrat Del Gill.

County Clerk  Wanda Halbert, the former longtime city council and school board member, is the best known of three Democratic candidates; the others are Jamal Whitlow and Mondell B. Williams. Republican candidates are Donna Creson, Soheila N. Kail, whose husband, Danny Kail, had earlier ventured to run but deferred to her candidacy, and Arnold Weiner, a longtime rank-and-file party activist.
See also Politics for a rundown on County Commission races.