Tag: Jeff Green

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Beyond the Arc Sports

Grizzlies trade Jeff Green for Clippers 1st rounder, Lance Stephenson

CREDIT: Larry Kuzniewski

Larry Kuzniewski

Alas, Jeff Green’s tenure as a Grizzly never really worked out, but they got a protected first round pick for him.

The Grizzlies have traded Jeff Green to the Los Angeles Clippers in exchange for a lottery-protected 2019 first round pick and guard Lance Stephenson. In doing so right at Thursday’s trade deadline, they turned an OK trade period—yesterday they turned Courtney Lee into PJ Hairston, Chris Andersen, and four second-round picks—into an unqualified success.

In turning two players who were playing well but underperforming into a first round pick (which might actually convey, assuming the Clippers make the playoffs that year), four seconds (though one is so protected it probably won’t ever make it to Memphis), a young guy who hasn’t lived up to his promise, a big to replace Ryan Hollins at the end of the Gasol-less frontcourt rotation, and whatever you want to call Lance Stephenson (a.k.a. “Born Ready” a.k.a. “This Guy Will Be Gone In A Couple Months”)… the Grizzlies really did well.

This is the kind of smart deadline those who watch the team were hoping they’d have: moving guys on expiring deals to teams willing to give up assets in exchange. The players the Grizzlies got back are pretty much all certifiably insane—and now they’re on a team that already had Zach Randolph, Tony Allen, and Matt Barnes—but the bet here is that (1) these guys are all going to be gone at the end of the year anyway, but those draft picks won’t and (2) the Griz may or may not make the playoffs anyway, so why not shore up their position for the future?

It’s going to be interesting to see how this works out on the court. Lee’s usage was pretty easily replaceable but the bulk of Green’s minutes now will probably be split between Matt Barnes and, well, Vince Carter? I’m not sure who’s going to be the bench 3 now. It could be James Ennis, recently recalled from the Iowa Energy. Maybe Stephenson will play backup 2 and Carter will slide over to small forward.

An ideal rotation might look a little something like (UPDATE — Now that it’s confirmed that the Grizzlies aren’t going to waive Stephenson, this is a better guess):

  • Conley / Allen / Barnes / Randolph / Wright
  • Chalmers / (Stephenson / Carter / Ennis wing bench wings) / Green (there’s only one now!) / Andersen

…at least, until Jordan Adams returns from his knee surgery, which will hopefully happen before the end of the season. I don’t expect Stephenson to play much, but if he can tamp down his insanity, he might be a nice addition off the bench. That’s a pretty big “if” though.

There’s something to be said for the comments that in adding Hairston, Andersen, and Stephenson, all guys with histories of off-court issues (well, and on court ones too), the Grizzlies may have added too much “crazy” to a locker room that already has some pretty outsized personalities, but I’m not sure I buy it. These guys are crazy, but they’re not stupid. The Grizzlies’ locker room has very solid leaders, who will keep guys in line (especially Zach Randolph and Tony Allen, in terms of keeping personalities in check).

The on-court fit is secondary to the haul of draft picks, of course. Once it comes time to sign free agents, the Grizzlies’ basic position is the same, except now they have a few more little pieces to work with if they’d like to facilitate a trade into their cap space instead of a signing. It’s a bet on the future, a recognition that they need to prepare for the road ahead, even if it costs them games in the short term—which, let’s be honest, might happen, especially at first with so many new guys to fill what had been established roles in the rotation (and I count the returning Brandan Wright in that, too).

This is exactly the kind of trade deadline the Griz needed to have if they were going to prove to the world that they recognized the importance of the future over the “now” (and even over next season). Plus they stuck the Clippers with Jeff Green, who—though he’s had some great games this season—caused more chemistry problems on the floor that he was worth.

We’ll see these guys in action tomorrow—Hairston and Andersen both practiced with the team today. More on this as it develops.

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Sports Sports Feature

The Memphis Grizzlies at the All-Star Break

It’s been an interesting season for the Memphis Grizzlies. From the rough start — which included the only 50-point loss in franchise history — to Marc Gasol’s likely season-ending broken foot against Portland, it seems the season has been a progression of obstacles.

No doubt the Gasol injury now casts the season — its goals, its methods for getting there, its ultimate value in a Western Conference where there’s very little doubt as to who will emerge victorious — in a new light. Coming as it did right before the All-Star Break, the prospect of playing out the stretch without the team’s best player provides maybe the ultimate opportunity for evaluating, for taking stock.

The Foot of the Spaniard

There’s no question that Marc Gasol had been struggling this year. It’s been one of the worst seasons of his career, with a defensive rating worse than any season since 2009-10. And yet, he’s had some of the best single games of his career. A new career scoring mark, several 30-point games, the first triple-double by a Grizzly since his older brother did it, and some huge plays in close games.

When I talked to Gasol during the preseason for a Memphis magazine profile, he said team practice was the first time he’d played basketball all summer. I think he thought he could play his way into shape, taking it easy at the front of the season in order to be in his best shape at the end of it.

That’s not how conditioning works, though. Going from “no work” to “trying to play the same way I always do” is a guaranteed recipe for fatigue, for injury, and for strain, and Gasol’s movements on the court had been labored since the first night. That’s not what you want from a 31-year-old in the first year of a five-year, $110 million deal.

In the short term, a Griz team that was already a little light in the frontcourt — with a rotation that Dave Joerger was already leaning on Ryan Hollins to bolster — is now even lighter and will have to rely on either Hollins to play productive minutes or JaMychal Green to 1) be played by Joerger and 2) keep his foul rate down during the minutes he gets.

Given that this is a team with a long history of deep playoff runs and that just about every player on the team is playing below his career averages, it’s still entirely possible that they make the playoffs, albeit as a seventh or eighth seed. But it’s also possible that they just can’t play .500 ball without Gasol, and that some of the other teams around the middle of the substantially weaker West get it together just in time to push them into the lottery.

I hope this injury puts to bed forever whatever notion Gasol has that he has to play through every injury. Sometimes doing the right thing means missing two or three games so you don’t miss two or three months. He and Mike Conley both have been playing through injuries big and small for years now, and there’s no question that it’s probably cost both of them years off their careers. But this is the first example (that we know of) of one of them playing on an injury, aggravating it, and missing serious time that he might not have, otherwise.

Going forward, it’s important for the training staff, the players, and the coach to be on the same page about this stuff. “If Marc Gasol says he can play, he’s going to play” isn’t going to cut it anymore.

Ah, Trade Deadline. Ah, Humanity!

The interesting wrinkle to the Gasol injury is that it’s happened just before the trade deadline. It’s no secret that the Grizzlies would like to see if they can turn some of their expiring contracts into some sort of future asset. Between Jeff Green, Courtney Lee, Matt Barnes, a partially-guaranteed Vince Carter, Mario Chalmers, and (well, it’s got to be said) Mike Conley, the Griz have a lot to work with here. In the interests of preserving this season, though, it’s probably safe to say that Conley, Barnes, and Chalmers are off the table, so that leaves Green, Lee, and Carter as the most likely expiring deals being shopped.

Expiring contracts aren’t worth as much with the cap projected to rise dramatically this summer, and since the Grizzlies have been holding their own as of late (albeit against weaker competition than at the start of the season), the front office is probably more likely than not to hold on to what they’ve got, unless they can persuade another GM into giving up draft picks for a player on an expiring deal.

Conventional wisdom among some of the NBA commentariat is that the Gasol injury provides the Griz all the reason they need to look for a deal for Conley that nets them young players on long contracts. I get the argument, but I think that’s a worse and riskier alternative than re-signing Conley to the right deal and absolutely not what the Grizzlies are interested in doing.

What About the Draft Pick(s)?

Because of the trade made in 2012-13 that sent Marreese Speights, Wayne Ellington, Josh Selby, and a pick to the Cavaliers in exchange for Jon Leuer (remember JONNY BASKETBALL?), a salary dump that cleared the way (ostensibly) for a better Rudy Gay trade, the Grizzlies owe their first round pick to the Denver Nuggets this year if it is higher than 5th but lower than 15th. Basically, if the Grizzlies are horrible or make the playoffs, they get to keep their draft pick this season. If the pick doesn’t convey this season, it’s likely to next year when it’s only top five protected.

Because of the Jeff Green deal, the Grizzlies also find themselves owing Boston a pick that can’t be conveyed until two seasons after the Denver pick conveys. Granted, I don’t think they’re worried about whether it conveys in 2018, 2019, or 2020 at this point, but it is on the radar.

From everything I’ve gathered, the Griz have no intention of tanking to miss the playoffs. They want to make the playoffs, keep the pick, and get a quality guy on a rookie contract for next year to add to their growing roster of young guys (Jordan Adams, Jarell Martin, and James Ennis). There also seems to be a fear that a pick in 2017 will cost them a lot more money than a 2016 rookie contract because of changes to the NBA’s collective bargaining agreement (CBA). I’ve heard that from more than one Griz executive, and they seem pretty confident that they can grab a player with this year’s pick. Given that if they make the playoffs, it’ll probably be as a very low seed (7th or 8th), they’ll probably be picking in the 16-20 range, and good talent is almost always available in that range. I find it very unlikely that they’ll do anything to bolster this year’s playoff odds at the expense of future cap flexibility.

What all of This Means for Now

I think you’re going to see the Grizzlies’ — the players’, I mean — backs against the wall, trying to win every game they can. They’ve been playing much better lately, even if it’s been against non-elite teams. The schedule is still fairly relaxed through the rest of February and early March, but then it ramps up again. If they can still make the playoffs, I’m not sure they’ll have much of a chance of advancing, but that was likely against the Spurs or Warriors, even with Gasol playing.

This year, from opening tip, was not going to be a championship year. The worst thing the Grizzlies could do would be to sacrifice future flexibility or ability to acquire talent in a misguided effort to make the playoffs for no real reason this year. Unless six Warriors and three Spurs break their ankles, the Western Conference title isn’t really up for grabs.

I’d like to see them try to flip expiring contracts for players on rookie deals, or maybe some extra picks. If those deals aren’t there, and I don’t expect them to be, they might as well just hang on to those guys and try to keep the pick this year. No player making more than $4 million or $5 million next year is really worth the future cap space.

Gasol’s injury is a weird blow to a weird year. How the Grizzlies react to it, and whether they’re able to use it to shore up their position for next season and seasons beyond will tell us a lot about the the organization’s ability to set a course and stick to it. The rest of the year should be used by everyone involved to win as many games as possible while figuring out who they want to be, and how they want to get there.

Kevin Lipe writes the Flyer‘s Grizzlies blog, Beyond the Arc.

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Cover Feature News

Hoop City Memphis 2015!

CREDIT: Larry Kuzniewski

The Grizzlies

Can the Core Four take it up a notch?

Last year’s Grizzlies were the best or second-best team in the NBA for most of the season, before a collapse down the stretch lost them the Southwest Division title and landed them in the fifth seed in the playoffs. Marc Gasol had a career year, Zach Randolph had the best season since his 2012 knee injury, Mike Conley elevated his play offensively, and until the Griz fell apart and then limped into the playoffs with key injuries to Conley and Tony Allen (not to mention the broken face Conley suffered in the first round against Portland), it looked like last year was “the year.”

Larry Kuzniewski

Marc Gasol

Instead, they took the Golden State Warriors to six games in the second round before being eliminated, and what looked like “the year” became another run at the title that didn’t quite get there.

This year, things are in flux a little bit. Here are the 10 biggest questions facing the Grizzlies in the 2015-16 season:

Can the Grizzlies really win a championship in today’s NBA?

This question has hounded the Grizzlies since they lost to the Spurs in the Conference Finals a few years back, and has only intensified in the years since, with the rise of the Warriors and Hawks and other “pace-and-space” three-point shooting teams, and of “small-ball” lineups that push the pace without traditional big men.

Given the Grizzlies’ offensive limitations, it’s not hard to see that in the postseason, when the game slows down and becomes much more chess-like and concerned with tactical adjustments made on a nightly basis, the Griz are uniquely built to be hard to adjust to, given that what’s different about them is their personnel and not the plays they run. But, as we saw in last year’s second-round series against Golden State, those limitations can become a liability in the playoffs, when the other team decides to take away the ability to score in the post and dares the Griz to shoot long-jumpers.

I’m not sure what they can do to counter those adjustments, besides have a different roster and play a different way. And with Gasol returning on a five-year deal, and Conley likely to do the same, it seems exceedingly unlikely that that’s what’s going to happen. In the meantime, we watch and wait to see if they can evolve offensively enough to turn the corner.

Is the season a failure if the Griz don’t make it past the second round?

One thing was repeated in almost every Grizzlies preview story written in national media this year: As good as these Grizzlies have been, and for as long as they’ve been that way, we still don’t know whether they’re good enough to win an NBA title. The question remains: Are the Grizzlies just going to be the speed bump in the path of the great teams forever, like the Bad Boy Pistons to the Western Conference elite’s Jordan Bulls?

This year’s team is basically the same as last year’s, with a different look from the bench (bringing in Brandan Wright and Matt Barnes has totally changed the complexion of the second unit) and a brewing controversy about whether Jeff Green or Allen should start at small forward (hint: not Green).

Now that “Can they go the distance?” is the question most often asked about the Grizzlies, instead of “Can they make the playoffs?” it’s hard to argue that it’s anything less than a disappointment every year that they don’t make a deep run into the postseason.

Is this year actually a stealth rebuild?

The conventional wisdom is that with Gasol’s return on a five-year contract, the Grizzlies are essentially “running it back” this year with the same guys, and rolling the dice to see if they can end up with better seeding and better matchups in the playoffs, thus making it to the Conference Finals or maybe even the Finals.

On paper, it looks like that’s exactly what’s happening, but I’m not so sure. Yes, the personnel is mostly unchanged from last year, but, while adding Wright to the bench is a huge deal for what the Griz can do offensively, outside the “Core Four,” the team is mostly made up of young guys who haven’t proven themselves, veterans in contract years, and old guys on the verge of retirement (Okay, maybe that’s just Vince Carter).

Is this really a stealth rebuild with a bunch of roster churn where the Grizzlies try to stay good while flipping pieces around and loading up for next year?

Let’s think through this “stealth rebuild” hypothesis. Obviously, the Grizzlies have been an excellent team for the last five straight seasons. That has to end at some point.With Randolph entering the season at age 34, and Allen turning 34 in January, it’s obvious that age will catch up with these two guys at some point. Who are the guys who are going to step up if it happens to be this year? (Crickets)

Exactly. Those guys aren’t on the roster right now. There was talk of Jarnell Stokes being “Z-Bo replacement” material, but that was a stretch at best. Right now, the Grizzlies don’t have a backup plan. The way to have a backup plan is to build your next core group while your current core group is still playing. The Spurs did this right around the time that some team from Memphis knocked them out in the first round, and came out of it with future Finals MVP Kawhi Leonard. They looked completely done in that series, but all the while some of the pieces that would win them their next championship were already on the roster.

The Grizzlies don’t have that right now. They’ve got a bunch of guys who could be that but haven’t played much, and they’ve got some guys who are probably going to be gone after this year, and then they’ve got the Core Four and Wright.

This team has a lot of expiring contracts and decisions to make this summer. Players who are free agents after this season: Conley, Green, Courtney Lee, Beno Udrih, and Barnes.

And these are the players who have team options after this year, meaning the team can decide whether to pick up that option: Jordan Adams, Stokes, Russ Smith, JaMychal Green. Carter’s final year of his contract is $4.2 million on paper but is only partially guaranteed, meaning they don’t have to pay him the whole thing if he’s waived. All nine of these guys are basically going to have to prove their worth this season (except Conley, one assumes).

I’ve said all this and it makes it sound like I think the team is going to win 30 games. I don’t believe that. I think, as good as this group of players is, health is the only thing that could keep them out of the postseason. But I do think we’re going to see the start of that roster churn this year. I think guys are going to get traded. I think they’re going to struggle to get it together because there are some interesting depth issues and some real crowds at the forward positions. I think the organization’s eyes are probably on being as good as they can this year while trying to build the next great Grizzlies team around Gasol and Conley.

If Jordan Adams gets healthy, is he going to matter this season?

Adams has the unenviable position of being a late first-round pick on a veteran team that can’t afford to “miss” on many first-round picks because most of them have been leveraged to build the current core of players.

With any luck, Coach Dave Joerger will realize at some point this season that he simply has to play Adams for the good of the team: If they’re going to develop him into a rotation player, he has to play NBA minutes. It’s the same problem former Coach Lionel Hollins had of not developing talent and then blaming the younger players for their own lack of development. I’m not encouraged that Adams will be given a chance to make a difference, but I hope he will, because the Grizzlies simply can’t afford for him not to; they’ve given up too many future draft picks already.

Larry Kuzniewski

Mike Conley

Can Mike Conley make it to April without health issues?

Even before he got his face broken in the Portland series last year, Conley was already so banged up he could barely play. He and Allen both went into the postseason with nagging injuries, the kind that don’t heal unless you take time off, and the first round of the playoffs is not the time for that.

So can Conley keep his body together long enough to make it to the playoffs intact? That depends on whether the Grizzlies’ current backup point-guard tandem of Udrih and Smith can play well enough so that Conley doesn’t have to be on the floor for more than 35 minutes a night.

Udrih isn’t really in game-shape after offseason ankle surgery, and Smith is young and unproven, just as likely to turn the ball over as he is to dazzle the crowd. And if they can actually hold down the fort, will Joerger take the opportunity to rest Conley or play him so that the Grizzlies have a better shot of winning regular-season games? If the Grizzlies are going to emulate the Spurs model, resting players and not worrying about every regular-season game is something they’re going to have to do.

Is this the year Tony Allen gets old?

Allen turns 34 this season, and his maniacal defense is greatly dependent on his athletic abilities and using his incredible physical gifts to be in the right place at the right time. But his quickness and reflexes are going to leave him at some point. He won’t always be able to play the game the way he plays it now.

Injuries have plagued Allen the last couple of years. He only played in 63 games last year, and the year before that he played 55. If that’s the beginning of a pattern, the Griz shouldn’t be surprised if Allen misses 20-plus games again this year.

I think Allen’s got another season or two left before he starts to really feel the effects of age, but his recent injury history is worrying, especially, because as far as I know, there’s not a backup plan for losing one of the league’s best perimeter defenders.

Jeff Green’s not really a starter, is he?

I’m withholding judgment on the Green Starting at Small Forward era until I have more than one game’s worth of evidence on which to base said judgment, but that first game was just like the preseason, and just like the games last year where it happened: The offense reverted to the bad old days of the Lionel Hollins/Rudy Gay Memorial Clogged Toilet Offense — nobody moved and guys dribbled the ball until somebody came open for a quick shot instead of passing the ball around.

I don’t think it’s a coincidence that the presence of a player similar to Gay in the lineup has brought back the same issues that plagued this roster when Gay was here. But maybe Green just hasn’t found his rhythm yet. Maybe he needs a few games to get his sea legs.

Who will be on the roster after the trade deadline?

I’m sure that if the Jeff Green experiment has proven by February that it’s not going to work out, Green will be shopped (he’s got a $9 million expiring contract). Other guys with expiring contracts might be too, though if Lee can keep up his hot streak of aggressive play from the preseason, he won’t be going anywhere and will probably get re-signed to the Grizzlies to a new deal. Time, and Lee’s production, will tell.

Is this the year people stop saying they want Lionel Hollins to be coach again?

Judging from Twitter during the Grizzlies’ blowout loss to the Cavs to open the season, not even close. — Kevin Lipe

The Tigers

Can the Tigers turn the program — and Josh Pastner’s career — around?

These are sunny days for the University of Memphis — if you’re a football fan. But what of the long-proud basketball program, last seen leaving a court in Hartford, Connecticut, an 18-14 season in the books, and no postseason tournament for the first time in 15 years? The questions abound.

Should Memphis coach Josh Pastner take the departures of Austin Nichols and Nick King personally?

Yes and no. Anytime a still-valued player leaves a program (read: coach), exhaust fumes from the proverbial getaway car surround the coach with an unmistakable stench, at least for a while.

Larry Kuzniewski

Josh Pastner

King and Nichols were Pastner’s prize catches in the recruiting class that arrived merely two years ago. Furthermore, they are products of this city, raised on blue dreams and gray passions. For each player to decide — after but two seasons — that the hometown program (read: coach) is not a good fit is quite the opposite of a selling point for future prize recruits, be they from Memphis or elsewhere.

“I was totally blindsided by Austin Nichols,” Pastner says. “Had no idea. I’d had many conversations with him. He told me he loved it here. That said, there’s no ill will. We move forward.We’ll play differently, spread the floor more.”

But then also consider the departures, in modern terms, business decisions. King was a disappointing player over his two seasons with Memphis. A new environment and uniform can make for a fresh start in ways that more subtle adjustments (goal-setting, work habits, etc.) cannot. And Nichols clearly had one eye on Virginia since his days at Briarcrest. Memphis (read: Pastner) obviously didn’t provide enough to refocus that wandering eye, but this is a divorce initiated by the player, not the coach. The Tigers will not win without players who want to play for Memphis.

Can Shaq Goodwin (finally) be The Man?

The Tigers’ senior power forward has had a nice college career. In 101 games with Memphis (91 of them starts), Goodwin has averaged 9.5 points and 6.0 rebounds. (As a junior last season, the numbers were 9.6 and 7.1.) With 44 more points, Goodwin will become the 50th member of the program’s 1,000-point club. If he stays healthy, the Georgia native will likely climb to ninth in career rebounds at the U of M. But …

There always seems to be a “but” in measuring Goodwin’s impact. He was positively monstrous (23 rebounds) in a one-point loss to Temple at FedExForum last February. But he took only eight shots (and made only two), coming up short on the offensive end in a game the Tigers had to win (and lost by a single point). Goodwin must be a complete force — the face and body of this program — for the Tigers to have any hope of NCAA tournament play come March.

What are we to make of the Tigers’ backcourt?

Lots of pieces here, few of them guaranteed playing-time. There are a pair of seniors with SEC experience (Kedren Johnson and Ricky Tarrant). There are two familiar faces whose roles never became clear last season (Avery Woodson and Markel Crawford). There’s a trio of freshmen who could land rotation spots or end up waving towels at the end of the bench (Jeremiah Martin, Randall Broddie, and Craig Randall).

If Pastner fails to clearly identify and assign roles, the backcourt could become a mess. Try winning a basketball game when you don’t know who is handling the ball.

“[Tarrant] is a veteran guard,” Pastner emphasizes. “He can score; he knows how to play. When he wants to be a very good defender, he can be.” Tarrant is well-traveled, having scored 1,000 points at Tulane (where he was C-USA’s Freshman of the Year in 2012) and last season at Alabama before transferring as a graduate student to Memphis. He would seem to be a stabilizer for an otherwise young roster, a player who won’t be surprised by the size and speed of Division I college basketball.

“I’m excited to see how we play with better spacing,” Pastner says. “And we’ll play faster. We need to do some things better than we did last year. We had a lot of turnovers to start the season and gave away games. Our guard play wasn’t good enough, and that falls on me. I made some recruiting misjudgments.”

Johnson has been dealing with a balky right shoulder, and Tarrant is coming off foot surgery, so this bounty of guards may be reduced — temporarily or long-term — when the Tigers open against Southern Miss on November 14th.

Larry Kuzniewski

Shaq Goodwin and Dedric Lawson

What can be expected from star recruit Dedric Lawson?

Memphis has seen mixed results from the last four McDonald’s All-Americans to suit up as Tigers. None of them — Elliot Williams, Joe Jackson, Adonis Thomas, and Goodwin — reached the Sweet 16 of the NCAA tournament. (Goodwin, of course, has one more season to change this.) Lawson turned 18 on October 1st. Can he compete immediately against players four and five years older?

“He’s a high-IQ and skill guy who can shoot the ball,” Pastner says. “He can create matchup problems. We’re asking him to do a lot from the get-go.” Having his older brother, K.J., nearby could ease the transition to college life for Dedric. “There’s a comfort level,” Pastner says, “and they’ve had success together, both in high school and AAU ball.” (Having one’s father on the bench, on the other hand, can be a mixed blessing. We’ll see what kind of influence Keelon has this year with two of his sons fighting for playing time.)

Does this team have a good shooter?

Woodson (37.7 percent) and Johnson (35. 3 percent) were competent but inconsistent from the outside last season. Tarrant (29.9 percent) won’t make anyone forget Doneal Mack, let alone Rodney Carney. Newcomers Broddie and Randall know their way to the basket, but neither will be a high-volume scorer from long distance. Former Mitchell High School star Jeremiah Martin — in the mix at point guard — shot 37 percent from three-point range as a senior and could build his value in the rotation as an off-the-bench shooter. “He plays hard,” Pastner says. “We’re teaching him some things. He has a tendency in transition to gamble. You can get away with that in high school.”

Pastner thinks his team needs to be more efficient from the three-point range. “The adjustments we make, spacing-wise, will allow more time for shooters to set their feet,” he says. “We’ll get open looks with better spacing.”

Are the Tigers too small?

The Tigers have exactly three players taller than 6’7″: Goodwin and Dedric Lawson are each 6’9″ (and must avoid foul trouble like processed meat), and Marshall is 6’11”. A native of Lexington, Tennessee, Marshall will likely absorb much of the blue-collar responsibilities: shot-blocking, offensive rebounds, defense help. “He’ll have some highs and lows as a freshman,” Pastner says. “He runs hard, rebounds hard. He’s not really skilled offensively right now. But his effort’s there. In time, he’ll be really good for us.”

Larry Kuzniewski

Shaq Goodwin

Goodwin loves what he’s seen from Marshall. “He’s my favorite,” the senior says. “He’s big. So much opportunity. He’s smart, too. And he’s got a soft touch around the bucket; he’s just a little raw.” The Tigers are a small team. Pay close attention to Marshall’s development.

Who is the Tigers’ X factor?

Trahson Burrell. The senior swingman displayed versatility on the wing (and on both ends of the floor) that called to mind former star Will Barton, but with the frequency of a moon phase. Six straight games with at least 10 points last December (five of them Tiger wins). Six straight games in single figures last February (three Memphis wins).

“He has to be a better defender for us,” Pastner says. Even with a season under his belt, Burrell may have the biggest “upside” of any player on the Memphis roster. And this team needs him … way up.

Can the Tigers win the AAC?

The American Athletic Conference sent two teams to the NCAA tournament last March. Defending league champ SMU has been banned from postseason play (and its Hall of Fame coach, Larry Brown, suspended nine games) for NCAA infractions. Cincinnati is a perennial threat, but a team Memphis beat by 13 last winter. The transitional nature of modern college basketball makes it hard to forecast a team’s strength based on the previous season. AAC coaches picked Memphis to finish fifth in the league, behind SMU, UConn, Cincinnati, and Tulsa, so these Tigers will play as underdogs.

What’s the most important area of improvement for the Tigers this season?

Count the empty seats at FedExForum. Last winter, there were an alarming number. If more of them aren’t filled this season, you’ll know the program is heading in the wrong direction. As recently as 2010-11 (Pastner’s second season as head coach), the Tigers averaged 16,768 tickets sold on game night. Last season, that figure plummeted to 13,915 (still 21st in the country).

For the second season in a row, Memphis will pack December with seven home games. The opponents are not the kind you circle a date to see: Louisiana Tech, Southeast Missouri, Manhattan, Southern, Ole Miss (okay, one circle), IUPUI, Tulane.

If the Tigers were in the Top 10 and bursting with star power on the court, you might see 16,000 fans visit FedExForum on a December Tuesday with Southern in town. The 2015-16 Tigers will be fortunate if 10,000 show up.

Will this be Pastner’s final season with the Tigers?

If the Tigers win 25 games and reach the second week of the NCAA tournament, Pastner will not just return; he’ll likely get a raise and an extension (beyond his current contract, which has him here through the 2017-18 season). If the Tigers fail to reach the NCAAs for a second year in a row, it’s hard to imagine Pastner surviving the outcry. The U of M fan base can go negative in the best of times. (Remember John Calipari’s “Miserables”?)

The Tiger coach remains positive. Reflecting on significant players’ transfers, Pastner notes, “Everything was basketball-related. We’re in Memphis, and you’re under a microscope 365 days a year. We’re privileged to have that microscope. The offseason had its challenges, but it was nothing that embarrassed the university or was against the law.”

Pastner thinks the number of televised games has contributed to the lower attendance figures, and on-court struggles have been exacerbated by that metaphorical media microscope. “There’s a lot of negativity by some media members,” he says. “Maybe they don’t like me. Maybe they don’t like me because I’m positive and they choose to live their lives negatively. I think it gets overblown. I’m gonna stay positive, locked in on who I am.

“When you step back and look at the success we’ve had here over six years [148 wins, 58 losses], a lot of people would have signed up for that. I love my job, and I love Memphis. I hope to be here a long time.”

Count at least one significant player fully in Pastner’s camp. “It took me a while to understand it,” Goodwin says. “But that’s how he is, 100 percent of the time. You can think of things — anything in life — two different ways: positive or negative. So why negative? I took it and ran with it. I preach it to the team. Last year, when I was struggling, I looked at things in a negative light. Had to change my mindset.”

Wins have historically been the best mindset-booster in sports. For this team, its coach, and fan base, a season of revelation is upon us. — Frank Murtaugh

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Grizzlies at the Break

Anyone who says they thought the Grizzlies would be in this position — 38-13, second in the Western Conference standings, with Marc Gasol as an All-Star starter and Zach Randolph playing the best basketball he’s played since the Griz knocked off the top-seeded Spurs in 2011 — is probably not being truthful. My season preview in these pages said that the Grizzlies had a good chance to have the best season in franchise history, and even I didn’t quite think they’d be doing this.

That’s not to say that all of the questions about this year’s team have been answered. In the aftermath of Tayshaun Prince’s and Quincy Pondexter’s trade for Jeff Green and Russ Smith, the Grizzlies’ offense — already much diversified from the way they used to play during the Lionel Hollins years — continues to evolve. But even though Green’s athleticism gives the Griz a whole new element to deploy, his lack of outside shooting (Green is a career 44-percent shooter, 33 percent from 3-point range) means that the Griz still have to operate in the narrow windows of floor spacing they’re able to create.

Vince Carter’s recent injury is a depressing exclamation mark on an underwhelming season, with Carter never quite finding his shot nor becoming the outside threat the Grizzlies signed him to be. Though he’s expected to return this season, teams weren’t even guarding Carter from three-point range before the injury, leaving him wide open to miss. With the addition of Green and Carter’s continued struggles to get on track (followed by his absence), the Grizzlies still haven’t solved the problem we’ve been talking about for years now: the lack of a floor-spacing knock-down 3-point shooter. Courtney Lee filled the role earlier in the season but has slowly begun to regress to his career averages. Shooting is still something the Griz just don’t quite have enough of — but it may be a moot point, now that the offense is beginning to fully integrate Green’s athletic attacks on the rim and his ability to draw attention away from Gasol and Randolph just enough for those two to operate.

The biggest stories of the season for the Grizzlies are, without question, the two guys who were the most important players coming into the season: Gasol and Randolph. Gasol continues to play at a level that has him getting serious discussion as an MVP candidate, aggressively carrying the Grizzlies’ offense when he has to. Randolph, meanwhile, is playing the best basketball he’s played since his 2012 knee injury, having ceded his “first option” duties to Gasol and Mike Conley only to reclaim them in a lengthy streak of double-doubles in January and February.

The real question is whether the Griz can win an NBA title this year, and with the Western Conference still wide open, it seems like all of the preseason talk about “this could be the year” is still very much in play: This really could be the year. Assuming the rest of the conference standings shake out somewhat close to the way they are now, the Grizzlies could catch the Spurs in the first round, which wouldn’t be optimal, but barring that, a return trip to the Western Conference finals seems like a reasonable outcome.

The Griz are good enough to make it to the NBA Finals this season — whether or not they do seems like it will come down to playoff matchups and which teams they have to face to get there. There are few teams with whom the Griz don’t match up well, and even those teams don’t feel impossible to beat the way the Grizzlies’ archrivals have in years past. (I don’t expect the regular season troubles, mostly injury-related, that the Spurs are experiencing to carry over to the postseason. Betting against San Antonio doesn’t seem wise , no matter the situation.)

This is already the best team in the history of the Grizzlies franchise, regardless of what they’re able to accomplish after the regular season. They’re a veteran group used to playing with each other, with a great deal of trust and faith in each other and a real shared desire to bring the NBA title to Memphis this June. With the remaining games of the season, the challenge is whether they can continue to improve and steel themselves for the approaching challenges of playoff basketball, and whether they can continue to win games at the rate they’ve been doing it so far.