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Politics Politics Feature

Of Windfalls and Pratfalls

Over the last several days, local political leaders fell into rhetorical traps, some of their own making.

Example: In an effort to be inspirational in his weekly online column last week, Memphis Mayor Paul Young had this to say: “We’re challenging all graduates and Memphians to take a Negativity Fast from May 17 to June 11: no trash talk about Memphis, share what you love about your city with others and post something positive. Memphis is writing a new chapter — be part of it.”

Within 48 hours, Young was gainsaid by Donald Trump’s FBI Director Kash Patel (to be sure, no Memphian), who, so far from fasting, gorged himself on some quick publicity, announcing to the world at large via a Fox News interview that “I didn’t know this until my confirmation process, but Memphis, Tennessee, is the homicide capital of America, per capita. Didn’t know that. We have a problem there. We’re now addressing it. We’re rolling out one of our task forces to the state of Tennessee.”

So long, Negativity Fast. Many a Memphian, still digesting the outrage over the not-guilty verdict for the Tyre Nichols killers, would end up munching on Patel’s remarks in social media spaces.

The inconvenient segue took some of the shine off Young’s pride on having announced no new tax increase for the 2026 fiscal year, especially since spokesmen for the police were complaining that the Memphis Police Department (MPD), unlike the fire department, had been shorted of a pay-raise in this proposed city budget.

Meanwhile, County Mayor Lee Harris was boasting that his proposed budget, for the seventh straight year, contained no tax increase per se. In fact, said Harris, he was proposing a 20 percent tax cut. That turned out to mean that he wanted to lower the 2026 property tax rate from the current rate of $3.39 per $100 of assessed value to $2.73.  

Harris’ boast was somewhat disingenuous, inasmuch as the proposed rate change was predicated on Tennessee’s “Truth in Taxation” law, also known as the certified tax rate law or the Windfall Law, which aims to prevent local governments from experiencing a revenue windfall (an unexpected increase in revenue) solely due to property reappraisals that increase property values.

In other words, given the fact of a recent countywide reappraisal of property by Assessor Melvin Burgess, the county’s overall tax receipts would remain the same, with some homeowners paying less and many others paying more in accordance with their higher individual property appraisals. 

In any case, Assessor Burgess, one of several candidates known to be running for the term-limited Harris’ job in 2026, moved to outflank the mayor in an open letter with a bizarre boast, which also misrepresented the nature of the tax rate change.

“The reason your taxes went down,” wrote Burgess, “is not because of anything Harris did. Shelby County’s property tax rate will decrease by 20%, from $3.39 to $2.73, because of the growth my staff and I captured in Shelby County.”

In other words, Mr. Homeowner, if you’re one who’ll be paying extra money in property taxes because of a higher reappraisal, that should be understood not as a tax increase but as “growth” captured by the assessor. 

Say thank you, and pony up.

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Homicide Capital? Maybe

Is Memphis the “homicide capital of America,” just as FBI Director Kash Patel said on Fox News this weekend?

Patel’s statement came during a Fox News show interview Sunday, on which he also promised a task force to clean up the city’s homicide problem. 

But is it the homicide capital, really? Maybe, according to analysis by the Memphis Flyer

But finding a clear answer to what appears to be a simple question is no clear-cut task. Law enforcement agencies slice and dice crime numbers differently. There’s no report from experts yet available for 2025. Also, while the Memphis Shelby Crime Commission (MSCC) would likely be the expert on Memphis’ place among the country’s highest homicide rate, a request for guidance for this story was not immediately answered.

So, to get the latest information, we calculated the current murder rates of some of the usually top-ranked cities. The formula we used took the number of murders, divided those by a city’s population, and multiplied that by 100,000 to get the per capita amount. 

As for comparable cities, we started with St. Louis. It had the highest murder rate of any American city in 2024. St. Louis had a total homicide rate of around 69 per capita last year. Memphis’ rate was around 40 per capita. 

For 2025 so far, the St. Louis Metropolitan Police Department has reported 48 homicides. That gives its population of around 280,000 a homicide rate of 17 per capita. But the police department did not report homicides separately from murders. 

Memphis, using the same formula, has a homicide rate of 17.8 per capita so far this year, slightly higher than St. Louis. But the Memphis Police Department (MPD) reports murders separately from homicides. And the Memphis murder rate so far in 2025 (on 97 total murders) is 15.8 per capita, just below that of St. Louis. 

Other cities, usually high on annual homicide rate rankings, have fallen so far this year. Baltimore’s homicide rate is 6.8 per capita. New Orleans is 9.6 per capita this year.  

Memphis Mayor Paul Young’s office offered no guidance on comparing homicide rates but issued this statement: 

“MPD has always collaborated with federal agencies on addressing violent crime, and we’re encouraged by any effort that brings more resources to Memphis,” Young said in a statement. “We look forward to learning more from our federal law enforcement partners. 

“Locally, we’re already seeing results. Through our recent Fugitive Task Force and other strategic operations, we’ve taken fugitives off the streets and disrupted gang activity across the city. With stronger collaboration and steady local leadership, we’ll keep pushing forward to make every Memphis neighborhood safer.”

Kash’s statement brought quick backlash from Memphians, figuring it could be just another Trump Administration official favoring hyperbole over accuracy. But, again, it may depend on where he got his information.

Patel said “homicide,” not murder. There is a difference. Homicide is an incident in which one person kills another. Killing in self defense, for example, is a justifiable homicide, not murder. Same with fatal car accidents. Murder is homicide with intent to kill. While it sounds like splitting hairs (maybe), the two things are different. 

Also, there’s nothing uniform about crime statistics. Agencies collect and report this information differently.          

“For example, the Memphis Police Department (MPD) may release figures for ‘homicides’ rather than ‘murders,’” reads an explainer from the MSCC. “Not every homicide is a murder … 

“Also, for certain violent crimes such as aggravated assault, the MPD tracks incidents while the [Tennessee Bureau of Investigation — TBI] data is based on the number of victims … One incident can involve multiple victims.”

We’ll update this post with new information or clarifications.