Matt Holliday – Memphis Flyer

Matt Carpenter

You could have won a bet or two last March had you suggested Jorge Rondon, Eric Fornataro, Nick Greenwood, and Marco Gonzales (who??) would each pitch for the St. Louis Cardinals before the 2014 All-Star break. (The next time someone suggests a baseball team has too much pitching, stifle laughter and take the conversation elsewhere.) Injuries have compromised what appeared to be the deepest pitching staff in baseball, sending three Cardinal starters — Joe Kelly, Jaime Garcia, and most ominously, Michael Wacha — to the disabled list and leaving the fate of the defending National League champions all the more on the right arm of ace Adam Wainwright.

But even with the I-55 pitching shuttle from Memphis, (don’t forget Sam Freeman or Tyler Lyons), the Cardinals’ current crisis of confidence has more to do with the men trusted to score runs than with those tasked with preventing them. Even with a 1.89 ERA (through Sunday), Wainwright has four losses. Before going down with his mysterious shoulder injury, Wacha lost five games despite a 2.79 ERA. Near the bottom of baseball in runs and home runs, the Cardinal batting order no longer intimidates.

After St. Louis lost the 2013 World Series to Boston, Cardinal general manager John Mozeliak decided to part ways with a pair of veterans — rightfielder Carlos Beltran and third-baseman David Freese — to open playing time for a pair of recent Memphis Redbirds: second-baseman Kolten Wong and first-baseman Matt Adams. This transition required a pair of position moves by a pair of 2013 All-Stars, with Matt Carpenter shifting from second base to his natural spot at third, and Allen Craig moving from first base to rightfield. Whether or not it’s related to the position switch, Carpenter and Craig have underperformed, and dramatically when compared with their 2013 numbers. After leading all of baseball in hits last season, Carpenter has seen his batting average drop from .318 to .282. Worse, he’s striking out far too frequently (65 times) for a leadoff hitter (he went down 98 times all of last season). As for Craig — a metronomic .300 hitter throughout his professional career — the drop in production has been precipitous. He’s currently batting .249 (compared with .315 a year ago) and slugging .365 (compared with .522 just two years ago). With Craig signed through 2017 and Carpenter through 2019, these are numbers that need to take a turn for the better. Taken together, they’re a tipping point.

Solutions? The Cardinals hope one is Oscar Taveras, the hitter scouts and Cardinal fans have been breathlessly anticipating for two years now. After a 2013 season compromised by an ankle injury, Taveras homered in his Cardinal debut at Busch Stadium on May 31st. (To this point, it’s the highlight of the Cardinal season.) But after struggling (.189 batting average) through 11 games, Taveras returned to Memphis, where he resumed mashing pitchers in the Pacific Coast League (.318 batting average, .502 slugging percentage with the Redbirds). The challenge for St. Louis is finding Taveras a regular spot in the batting order (he was recalled to St. Louis last week). The Cardinals have been resistant to playing Taveras in centerfield, so he’ll have to share time with Craig in right or veteran Matt Holliday in left if he’s to make anywhere near the impact the Cardinals hope he does. (As a left-handed batter, he could theoretically platoon with either of the other two right-handed corner outfielders.)

Beyond Taveras, the Cardinals will at least dip their toes in the trade waters this month (the non-waiver deadline is July 31st). And this is where current Redbird prospects like Stephen Piscotty and Randal Grichuk could come into play. If the Cardinal system has a surplus anywhere — it’s not pitching, remember — it’s in the outfield. Could a run-producing third-baseman or second-baseman be found? (A shoulder injury recently sidelined Wong, who homered in his return to St. Louis Sunday .) Bottom line: for the first time since the Cardinals acquired Mark McGwire during the 1997 season, their offense is without a marquee slugger. The highest-paid hitter remains Holliday, whose current averages (.263 batting, .378 slugging) are shades of his career figures (.309, .523). In some respects, he’s the face of this season’s struggles. For an offense that leads the National League in double plays, Holliday has hit into the most: 13.

The Milwaukee Brewers are for real. The Pittsburgh Pirates and Cincinnati Reds are back in contention after sluggish starts. For the first time in years, the St. Louis Cardinals are fighting for relevance, not so much among World Series contenders, but within their own five-team division. Take comfort, Cardinal Nation, in the Chicago Cubs.

Matt Holliday

It’s a surplus of riches unlike any other in professional baseball. Between their major-league roster and that of their Triple-A affiliate here in Memphis, the St. Louis Cardinals have seven outfielders willing and able to claim they belong in the Cardinals’ everyday lineup … now. So why does the Cardinal outfield not feel right? As the season hits the quarter pole and the defending National League champions hover around the .500 mark, here’s a look at “the seven who would be three.” With apologies to Shane Robinson and Joey Butler, who would rank no better than eighth on this list. (Players are listed by age, descending order. All statistics are through Sunday’s action.)

• Matt Holliday (34) — Holliday has been a steady presence in leftfield since the Cardinals acquired him from Oakland in July 2009. A three-time All-Star wearing the Cardinal uniform, Holliday has been a part of four playoff teams with St. Louis, though if you had to name his signature postseason moment, it could be the dropped fly ball that cost the Cardinals a game at Dodger Stadium in 2009. Holliday is signed through 2016 (with a team option for 2017) and earns $17 million a year. But no player is untradeable. As the Cardinal outfield’s game of musical chairs continues, factor in the possibility of leftfield opening up if the right deal presents itself.

• Allen Craig (turns 30 in July) — Craig pulled off the impossible and replaced Albert Pujols at first base for the Cardinals in 2012. But with the emergence of Matt Adams — who can play first base and first base only — Craig moved to right field this season following Carlos Beltran’s departure to New York. Craig’s hitting has been metronomic throughout the Cardinals’ system, and he hit a jaw-dropping .454 last season with runners in scoring position. Which makes his start this season (.221 batting average, .357 slugging percentage) all the more puzzling. He’s signed through 2017, with a team option for 2018, earning $2.75 million this season, but $9 million by 2016.

• Jon Jay (29) — He doesn’t hit for power. He’s not fleet of foot (though he led St. Louis with 10 stolen bases in 2013), and will never win a Gold Glove. Jay has simply helped win a lot of baseball games, first in Memphis (where he manned center field for the 2009 PCL champions), then in St. Louis, where he took over in center after Colby Rasmus was traded, then delivered a key hit in the Cardinals’ epic comeback victory in Game 6 of the 2011 World Series. He played in 157 games for another pennant-winner last season. Yet the Cardinals traded fan favorite David Freese last fall for another center-fielder.

• Peter Bourjos (27) — He doesn’t hit for power either. But Bourjos is about as fleet as they come, bringing an element to the base paths and center field that St. Louis hasn’t seen at least since Ray Lankford’s prime in the late Nineties. That speed was enough for Cardinal general manager John Mozeliak to sacrifice Freese, gambling that the former Angel could win games even as a .250 hitter. (In his one full season in the majors — 2011 — Bourjos hit .271 with 11 triples and 12 homers.) He’s shared time with Jay this season and has struggled to make an impact at the plate. He did deliver some big hits in Atlanta and Pittsburgh last week, though. You get the feeling center field (for now) is his position to win.

• Stephen Piscotty (23) — If you met Piscotty wearing a coat and tie, his 6-3, 210-pound frame would tell you he’s an athlete. The former third-baseman has a big-league arm and appears bound for a corner outfield spot in St. Louis (or elsewhere). Playing primarily right field for Memphis, Piscotty is hitting .311 and has driven in 24 runs (second on the team) in 35 games. He slammed a pair of home runs onto the left field bluff at AutoZone Park last Saturday night. He’ll be playing in the major leagues in 2015.

• Randal Grichuk (22) — Part of the deal that sent Freese to Los Angeles, Grichuk made his Cardinal debut last month, but saw action in only nine games (three hits in 21 at-bats) before returning to Memphis. Grichuk earned one of three Gold Gloves awarded to outfielders throughout the minor leagues in 2013. Redbird manager Pop Warner prefers him in center field, though Grichuk seems to have the kind of bat (.566 slugging percentage in Memphis) that could land him comfortably in right or left. He has brought “abundance” to the Cardinals’ outfield surplus.

• Oscar Taveras (turns 22 in June) — Whatever happens to the six players above, mark this down: Taveras will be playing every day — presumably for St. Louis — in the majors next season. His tools at the plate, while still being refined, can’t be taught: full coverage of the hitting zone, gap-to-gap power, and speed out of the box. After losing most of his 2013 season to an ankle injury, Taveras is hitting .293 with the Redbirds and leads the team with 27 RBIs and 22 runs scored. A lingering question seems to be whether or not he can play center field in the big leagues. If he’s the kind of hitter scouts remain convinced he will be, room can be made in any outfield.

The one intangible shared by all seven of these outfielders is the certainty they’ll be happiest — and presumably, most productive — when they’re playing every day with two cardinals on their jersey. For what it’s worth, I can see a 2016 Cardinal outfield with Craig in left, Taveras in center, and Piscotty in right. The beauty of the current surplus, though, is that I could be wrong at every position and the Cardinals may still have a superior trio roaming the pasture at Busch Stadium.