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Politics Politics Feature

The Herenton Theory

Attentive veterans of Memphis politics — and of the city’s mayoral contests, in particular — tend to remember very few of the mayor’s races that have occurred since the pivotal year of 1991 as having been especially meaningful.

There was the 1991 election itself, a genuine watershed event, which saw the election of former school superintendent Willie Herenton as the first elected Black mayor in Memphis history. 

There was the 1999 showdown involving Herenton, running for his third term, and a crowded field of challengers, the most significant of whom was undoubtedly local government veteran Joe Ford, who bore the hopes of his powerful and entrenched inner-city political clan for taking over the reins of city government.

There was the 2007 three-way contest between incumbent Herenton and two well-supported challengers, Councilwoman Carol Chumney and former MLGW president Herman Morris.

It almost goes without saying that Herenton, the victor in all of these races, was the key player in each of them. It is even possible to speak of a generational slice of Memphis politics as having been The Herenton Era.

It might seem outwardly that such an era passed away, along with Herenton’s post-election waffling after 2007 and his decision ultimately to abandon his mayoral seat. As we know, it was won in a 2009 special election by then County Mayor AC Wharton, who won again in 2011 over Councilman Edmund Ford Sr.

Wharton was in his turn unseated by Councilman Jim Strickland, who won again in 2019. 

But wait, here we go in one more mayoral election year, and who do we see again but Willie Herenton, who has literally won or been at the top of every poll so far conducted about the race?

For reasons of his own, the former mayor has chosen not to exploit his position in the polls to gain further traction in any of the season’s several concluded and still pending mayoral forums.

But he is aware of his standing, and he knows the influence polling results have on elections. In the aforementioned 2007 mayoral race, the incumbent, then running for a fifth term, was under fire from the electorate and knew it.

An expectant public, then and now, was all too well attuned to such polls as were made public. There were two in the last weeks of the race when the main question on voters’ minds was who — Chumney or Morris — had the best chance to defeat Herenton. Interestingly, that may be the crucial question in this year’s race as well.

And the answer came, in two successive polls, one of which showed Chumney as being closest to unseating Herenton, the other of which concluded for Morris.

The baseball term “Tie goes to the runner” can be invoked. Herenton outpolled both of his opponents.

The Herenton Theory of the 2023 election is that whichever other candidate proves to be a true runner-up, poll-wise, to the venerable former mayor will inherit a flock of last-minute votes and go on to win.

The much-vaunted Emerson College poll, recently published by WREG, is of less help than it originally seemed. True, candidate Paul Young finished strongly behind Herenton in first-choice votes for mayor. But opponent Floyd Bonner’s people point out that when strongly leaning uncommitteds are added to the total, the sheriff and the Downtown Memphis Commission CEO are all tied up.

They note further that the poll seems to over-sample, at 20 percent, millennials, a hotbed of Young’s support and a demographic group that normally votes in the 5-percent range.

Two points: (1) There will be other polls between now and October 5th, and (2) is it possible that Herenton himself will win, as in 2007? 

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News News Blog News Feature

Mayoral Candidates Share Plans to Address Racial Inequities and Homelessness

On Thursday, three Memphis mayoral race candidates — Reggie Hall, Michelle McKissack, and Paul Young — shared their plans to address racial inequities and homelessness at the Symposium on Ending Homelessness. 

The event was hosted by the Community Alliance For The Homeless (CAFTH) at Rhodes College on August 10th, with the mayoral candidate forum moderated by Shirley Bondon of the Black Clergy Collaborative of Memphis.

“The mayor of Memphis has an awesome responsibility,” said Bondon. “If they do their job well, they can prepare a vehicle of opportunity for the city and all its residents. Those housed and unhoused.”

Each candidate was allowed an opening statement to describe their plans to address homelessness in Memphis. Symposium participants also submitted their own questions prior to the event. The candidates shared their personal experiences with the issue as well.

Following candidate statements, Bondon asked about their commitment to racial and social equity in their proposed response to homelessness, as well as how they have addressed the problem in their previous work.

The CAFTH 2022 annual report said, “While Black, African-American, or African individuals account for 51 percent of the total Memphis population, they represent 74 percent of the population experiencing homelessness.” In contrast, “White individuals account for 35 percent of the total Memphis population, but represent only 21 percent of the population experiencing homelessness.

“In an equitable world, the total population would be equal (or close) to the population experiencing homelessness,” the report said.

McKissack said homelessness is not just a “one-size-fits-all” problem, and that no one group can address it. “The fact is you have to tap into all those types of agencies that are actually addressing homelessness and racial and social aspects of living,” she said. “Here in Memphis, we are a predominantly African-American community, but the wealth is not spread out in the way that it should be.” If elected, McKissack said she plans to bring all parties to the table to come up with a solution.

She added that her work to address these inequities started in her role as a parent, at Downtown Elementary, where she started a clothes closet for students experiencing homelessness. She also invited local artists to the school every six weeks to ensure all students were able to feel “whole.”

Hall said he will be the “bridge between wealth and sweat equity.” He saidin order for the city to work, we have to learn how to build relationships and partnerships.

“It doesn’t matter if you have wealth or if you don’t, at this moment,” he said. “Bullets are flying. Cars are being broken into. The homes are being broken into. And everyone is being terrorized at this moment. It has finally come a time where we must all build together, work together, put aside petty differences, and bring in a true leader who can bridge that gap.”

When asked to recall a relationship he has built in the city of Memphis to address inequity, Hall said he hasn’t built any on the professional level; everything he does is on ground level. “The people that I help are the disproportionate people and disenfranchised people.”

Young said his approach relies on changing the system, as people of color are “disproportionately represented” in all social systems. “What we have to do is make the process seamless,” Young said. “People just don’t know. They don’t understand our bureaucracy. That’s how we address the inequities.”

Young added there need to be more resources to address the problem, which, he said, he has been actively doing as a part of his work. Young referenced his previous role as director of Housing and Community Development for the City of Memphis, where they started the first Affordable Housing Trust Fund.

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Politics Politics Feature

Gibson Opens Up

In opening his headquarters on Quince Road in East Memphis last Saturday, J.W. Gibson — who is variously described as a businessman, as a developer, and as a philanthropist — sought to remedy one of the problems of his mayoral campaign.

The problem has been that, in a field overflowing with candidates of one stripe or another — a lawman, a local government veteran, a former mayor, a school board member, et al. — Gibson has lacked the focus that a single easy-to-digest descriptor might provide to distinguish him from his competitors.

He attempted to deal with that issue last Saturday by presenting a “six-point” plan and characterizing himself as a man of multiple dimensions, experienced in meeting a wide array of challenges.

“I’m a native Memphian, born in Dixie Homes, raised in South Memphis. I’m a Navy veteran, owner of three businesses, a wholesale distributorship, real estate development, and commercial printing.”

He proudly owned up to being the printer of the state’s lottery coupons. “Did y’all know that they were all printed here in Memphis?”

He identified himself with Memphis yet further by the very distinctive nature of his experiences — including, he pointedly noted, a successful, long-term “interracial marriage.” On hand last Saturday and prominently introduced were his wife Kathy and their two daughters, Savannah and Alicia.

Kathy Gibson is the president of Buckman Laboratories, one of the true ornaments of local industry. Buckman is a global specialty chemical company that conducts business in over 90 countries and employs approximately 1,700 associates.

Both the senior Gibsons are well known for the range of their contributions to numerous local arts programs and other causes.

Gibson’s six-point platform was unabashedly multiplicitous, as well. Among the points of it was the crime issue, the resolution of which depended on the coordinated activity of the entire community, he said, promising to invest in new crime-control technology and to hold a massive “crime summit” if elected.

Other platform points were economic and workforce development. Gibson lamented that the city had — some eight years ago, he said — divested itself of a workforce development program as such. (Others maintain that the city’s program was shifted over to the county under state mandate.)

Still another platform point was early childhood and youth development, apropos which Gibson proposed the restoration of direct city aid to Shelby County Schools — though not in the same measure as existed prior to the 2013 merger of city and county systems, followed by the creation of suburban municipal systems.

Gibson pledged to “bring back home” MLGW, which he called a “city division” but has enjoyed a partial autonomy of action. And he promised to create an annual showcase of Memphis music talent.

Last Saturday’s self-introduction was in the wake of a flurry of new yard signs advocating Gibson’s candidacy, and it will be followed up this week by ads on local TV.

Also hitting the tube this week was Sheriff Floyd Bonner with a 30-second biographical ad on all local stations pointing out that Bonner was the first African American to head the Shelby County Sheriff’s Department.

New TV ads were also purportedly imminent from candidates Paul Young and Van Turner, the latter of whom previewed one this week in online form.

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Politics Politics Beat Blog Politics Feature

Part Two: Mayoral Candidate Update

Note: in a prior article, the campaigns of four presumably mainline mayoral candidates were discussed  — those of Floyd Bonner, Paul Young, Van Turner, and Willie Herenton.

J.W. Gibson: The businessman/developer is something of a wild card in the Mayor’s race. He is a former County Commissioner whose high-matter mark, politically, was a hard-fought but losing in-camera contest for a chairmanship vacancy with then Commission colleague Joe Ford.

Gibson is well known in developmental circles and to a certain extent in political ones, as well. At the moment, he still hopes to be involved in a pending, long-maturing TIF that would cover the Soulsville area of South Memphis.

Of all the declared candidates, Gibson has the most direct access to independent wealth, and that puts him, to start with, at an even keel financially with Bonner and Young, the standout fundraisers so far.

His financial means could be important, especially in a protracted race, but Gibson, however familiar to insiders, has a long way to go to achieve widespread name recognition in the community at large.

Frank Colvett: This city councilman, a former Council chair, took pains when he announced to insist that he was not a partisan candidate and would appeal to all sectors of the Memphis  population in what is, of course, a formally non-partisan race.

Even so, Colvett’s image as a well-known Republican stirred speculation that the councilman intended to corner the local GOP electorate as at least a base for his further efforts.

As last year’s county general election made clear, though, Republicans are a distinct minority in Shelby County, and that disparity is even more pronounced within Memphis city limits, where the GOP-voting population is estimated to be between 15 and 20 percent.

Colvett is doggedly showing up at many of the mayoral forums, often ill-attended, that are so far being held. And he is a fixture at any bona fide Republican event, handing out his lapel stickers at the gate.

James Harvey: Another former County Commissioner, another Republican (as of recent years, anyhow), and a true long shot, Harvey is an African-American who hopes to get his share of widely disparate voting populations.

He has a tendency to talk too long when asked to speak at events (a holdover from his erstwhile Commission habits), but, as he demonstrated at a recent GOP meeting (in Germantown, not the most obvious place to find Memphis voters), he was off-and-on riveting when he talked Law and Order themes to the faithful.

Still, he probably shouldn’t hold his breath. (Or, to invert that metaphor, maybe he should.)

Karen Camper: As the minority leader of the state House Democrats, Camper is an influential figure, and in her campaign announcement, she made a good try of casting herself as a spokesperson for Memphis’ inner-city neighborhoods. 

And her legislative experience has given her a good grasp of the state-local interface she would need to work as the city’s chief executive.

One thing that has held her back is the moratorium that’s been imposed on fundraising of General Assembly members for the duration of the current legislative session. 

Another thing that holds her back is the simple fact that, however important she is as a pubic official, she has been working at a 225-mile distance from Memphis and, consequently, outside Nashville and her legislative district, she remains something of an unknown in Memphis at large.

Michelle McKissack: There surely is a political market for such a highly presentable and well-spoken female candidate as this former local TV personality who has lately served as chair of the Shelby County Schools board.

But McKissack has been stumbling somewhat in making her entry into the race an established fact. She made an unusual public announcement early on that she was thinking of running, but has never amplified on that in any tangible way since. (She has been, however, a presence at several local low-key forums.)

Another drawback to McKissack’s candidacy is that she is subject to fallout from the embarrassing implosion of the now departed and disgraced schools superintendent Joris Ray, whom she had a hand in selecting.

Judge Joe Brown: You kidding me? Is he really running — this former actual Shelby County jurist and, somewhat famously later, a pretend one on syndicated national TV?

Well, he evidently really is. He’s showed up at a couple of local mayoral forums, anyway, where he has continued demonstrating a serious case of foot-in-mouth disease (e.g., saying out loud that a female Mayor would be subject to being raped if she kept a too public profile).

Brown’s name recognition was thought to be an advantage when he ran for D.A. back in 2014, and it may well continue to be, given that  former Councilman and current Shelby County Clerk Joe Brown (no relation) probably owes his various elections to the name similarity.

But Judge Brown’s 2014 campaign dramatically dissolved as a result of his many behavioral and verbal indiscretions, and he had no money to run on, anyhow. He still doesn’t have any.

(This concludes Part Two of a brief survey of Memphis mayoral candidates. Almost surely I’ve overlooked somebody, in which case I’ll realize that at some point and add them on. In any case, petitions can’t even be drawn until May 22, so nobody is really official just yet.)

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Politics Politics Feature

Karen Camper’s Race

Depending on how one interprets the recent announcement by Michelle McKissack as to her political intentions, there are either one or two women in the running for Memphis mayor. There are still those who regard McKissack, the school board chair and former TV anchor, as having been equivocal or hypothetical in her formal announcement. Did she say she was running or merely indicate she was thinking about it?

There was no such ambiguity about Karen Camper’s intentions. The minority leader, declaring her candidacy from a position next to her grandmother’s front porch in South Memphis, proclaimed herself “ready” and reinforced the immediacy of her candidacy with some striking words: “From the front porch, we can see the conditions of our streets. We can see whether it is littered with potholes. We can hear the engines of cars roaring out of control. We can hear street racing. We can hear gunshots.”

She declared, “Memphis needs a mayor that’s willing to meet with you on your front porch.”

In so dramatizing her effort, positioning herself as having sprung right from the grassroots of inner city Memphis, Camper was ingeniously minimizing one of the potential shortcomings of her position — that her basic governmental experience, however renowned, has taken place at something of a remove from home.

Camper’s race can usefully be compared to that of a previous mayoral aspirant, Carol Chumney, who sought the office in 2007, against then incumbent Mayor Willie Herenton and MLGW CEO Herman Morris.

Like Camper, Chumney, now a Civil Court judge, had served for many years in the Tennessee state House. She did not become her party’s leader, as has Camper, but Chumney was an influential legislator, particularly in the field of children’s services, which she turned into a major public concern, and she held several leadership positions in the Democratic hierarchy, which in those days actually controlled the House.

Chumney had credentials, but they were, like those of Camper today, amassed primarily in an environment, Capitol Hill in Nashville, that was physically distant from the constituency of greater Memphis and not nearly as familiar to its voters as the governmental arenas for those public officials who had served closer to home.

Had Chumney chanced a mayoral race on the basis of her legislative qualifications, she would likely have had far greater difficulty than she did in the 2007 race, where she was a major contender from beginning to end. Indeed, she had made a Democratic primary race for Shelby County mayor in 2002, while still a legislator, and had run respectably, but well behind, against eventual winner AC Wharton, then the county’s public defender.

In 2003, though, Chumney had said goodbye to the General Assembly and run for a seat on the Memphis City Council against fellow hopefuls George Flinn and Jim Strickland. She won that race and wasted no time in broadening her acquaintance with the city’s voters and theirs with her.

In the four years leading up to the 2007 mayor’s race, Chumney was the most visible member of the council, posing challenge after challenge not only to the more questionable actions of Mayor Willie Herenton but to the good-ol’-boy presumptions of a council where pork was ladled about by members like so many reciprocated scratchings of each other’s back.

In so doing, Chumney ruffled some feathers in city hall, but she got the attention of the voters, enough so that she finished a close second to Herenton in the three-cornered mayor’s race, leading to speculation that she might have won in a one-on-one.

Karen Camper doesn’t have the advantage that Chumney had of recent and close-up tangles with the powers-that-be, but, to judge by her unusual mode of announcement, she has good grassroots instincts. And, of all the contestants, she may be most familiar with the ongoing threats to home rule posed by today’s state government. Which may be more of an issue than it may seem.

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Cover Feature News

Herman Morris’ Last Dance

At 7:45 at the Holiday Inn-University of Memphis Thursday night, things are quiet. A few folks are meandering in, riding the escalator up to the mezzanine in twos and threes. Kevin Paige and his band are singing “Crazy” in the ballroom.

The crowd, such as it is, is racially mixed and age-diverse. A big screen at the back of the ballroom flashes photographs of candidate Herman Morris and his family — Herman as a young track star, a young lawyer, a family man, etc.

Downstairs in the lobby, the South Carolina-Kentucky game is on a television in the corner. The game is close and exciting, but the numbers crawling across the bottom of the screen give early indication that the race for mayor is going to be neither.

The early voting and absentee totals — almost half the predicted vote — show incumbent Willie Herenton with 43 percent, Carol Chumney at 34 percent, and Morris a distant third, with 24 percent. Those percentages wouldn’t vary significantly all night.

Kevin Paige begins singing “Killing Me Softly.”

The food lines and bar lines in the ballroom are growing quickly. There seems to be little optimism. There are lots of hugs and wry smiles.

At 8:30, with a little more than 20 percent of precincts reporting, the percentages haven’t changed much: Herenton 43, Chumney 32, Morris 25. It’s over. With perfect ironic and, no doubt unintentional, timing, Paige’s band breaks into “Signed, Sealed, Delivered.” Ooops.

Republican maverick Tom Guleff wanders about with 5-year-old son Logan in tow. Adman Dan Conaway sips a beer and chats up latecomers. Campaign co-chairman and longtime judge and civil rights activist Russell Sugarman quietly works the door. Memphis schoolboard member Jeff Warren leans over a laptop, checking the discouraging numbers.

Sadly, for this campaign, the only number getting bigger is the number of folks in the ballroom. But their man, Morris, appears doomed to finish a distant third.

With 50 percent of precincts counted, the percentages remain markedly consistent: 42, 33, 24. As the numbers flash on the television screen, someone shouts, “Time for a drink!”

Warren shakes his head ruefully and says, “I’m very disappointed. I think Herman is the one man who could have brought this city together.”

There is a growing brushfire of applause in the outer room. The candidate, surrounded by his wife, children, and family, enters the ballroom. The outpouring of affection seems genuine and more than a little poignant.

Morris steps to the microphone, quiets the crowd, and says, “It’s a great day for Memphis.” But nobody in the room believes him.

Morris continues gamely, thanking his campaign committee and supporters and thanking his wife Brenda for 27 years of marriage. It is, in fact, the couple’s wedding anniversary. Morris presents a large bouquet of red roses to his wife and says, “Happy anniversary.”

The rest of Morris’ speech sounds suspiciously like a hurriedly edited “victory” speech. He repeats the “great day in Memphis” line, and thanks the crowd for playing a part in “bringing the city together.” He implores his supporters to work with the apparent victor, Willie Herenton, and even asks for a round of applause for the mayor.

When the crowd responds weakly, he exhorts them: “We can do better than that!” They do, barely.

“And now,” he says, “let’s have one heck of an anniversary party!”

The band strikes up the old Etta James song, “At Last,” and Herman Morris and his wife dance, staring into each other’s eyes, encircled by photographers and television cameras.

It could have been a helluva party.

As the crowd files out, the television in the corner of the lobby is showing happy women doing “The Electric Slide” at Herenton headquarters. But here at the Holiday Inn nobody feels much like dancing.

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Cover Feature News

Chez Chumney

Carol Chumney ended her campaign for city mayor at 10 o’clock Thursday night, in the same aggressive spirit that distinguished her term on the Memphis City Council. Promising to “work with Mayor Herenton any way I can” in her concession speech, she nevertheless took the opportunity to launch a final volley at the city leadership, saying, “We have sent a message that Memphis deserves better.”

The parting shot at Mayor Herenton rallied the crowd of more than a hundred close supporters and volunteers gathered in the Peabody’s Continental Ballroom, most of whom hadn’t seen their candidate in person since the election results were announced on television. For many, it was clearly a cathartic end to a long and exhausting day.

Earlier, as the first few precinct reports trickled in by word of mouth, the mood at Chumney’s election night party was buoyant, if slightly tense, and continued to remain so even as the early returns showed Mayor Herenton with a significant lead. But by the end of the night, with the outcome all but certain, any trace of that early hope had given way to sore discontent.

“I’m disappointed in the people of Memphis,” said longtime Chumney supporter Zenia Revitz. “I can’t believe that they didn’t open their eyes and see what’s going on in this community.” Her reaction may have best captured the mixed emotions felt by those present, as she quickly qualified her remark by adding, “So far, that is. We’re only at 50 percent,” referring to the number of precincts still uncounted. No one at the event was willing to fully give up the chance of a turnaround until it became unmistakably clear that none would come.

Another strong supporter, Joan Solomon, summarized what many at the party saw as a flawed election process, stating, “Everyone who voted for Morris was voting for Herenton.”

A Rasmussen poll commissioned by WHBQ Fox-13, taken just days before the election, showed that in a two-way race against Herenton, either Chumney or Morris would have won with a comfortable majority. Together, the two candidates provided the embattled mayor with the chance to win a fifth term with 42 percent of the vote.

The message of the Chumney campaign was strongly populist, and as such, their election strategy was centered around volunteer support. Noting in her concession speech that she was “outspent probably about two to one,” the councilwoman credited “hundreds of volunteers” with a large measure of her success. Campaign manager Charles Blumenthal was also quick to praise the campaign’s unpaid workers, calling the operation “a well-oiled machine,” adding that out of 14 full-time staff, only four were paid.

Indeed, it was a different campaign from what one usually sees in Memphis. It began with little money and very little financial support from the business community. What fund-raising momentum there was didn’t come until the final month of the race. Chumney’s largest donations came from labor unions and trade associations, with most of the city’s old money going to Herman Morris.

Also remarkable was the fact that compared with the two other major candidates, few current or former elected officials endorsed Chumney, with only two notables present at the election night event. State representative Mike Kernell, long an ally and friend of Chumney’s, was there, along with freshman Shelby County commissioner Steve Mulroy, who appeared with her onstage. Otherwise, the rest of her support appeared to come from family, friends, activists, and more than a few political neophytes.

While there were more whites than blacks at Chumney’s final campaign stop, Chumney was pleased by the support she received from predominantly black neighborhoods. “There were some [African-American] precincts where I was running at 30 percent,” she said. “It made me feel good.”

After the loss, Chumney was upbeat but expressed disappointment in the low turnout: “The people who didn’t vote should be kicking themselves because this was their chance to make a change.”

Ineligible to run for mayor and City Council at the same time, Chumney is out of public office for the first time in many years. After finishing the remainder of her council term, she said she plans to return to her private law practice, but she was otherwise undecided on any future political plans.

“Who knows?” she said. “We’ll see what the future holds.”

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Opinion Viewpoint

Polls: The Dark Side

The next time a pollster calls you, just say no.

You have the right to remain silent. Anything you say to a pollster can and will be used against you and the democratic process.

Polling organizations have a right to call us. I confess I read the polls and find them interesting fodder for discussion. But I do not trust them, and my usual response when called by a stranger on behalf of a pollster is “none of your business” or something like that. The late Chicago columnist Mike Royko had an even better idea: Lie to them.

Several polls were taken by different organizations prior to last week’s Memphis mayoral election, which was won by Willie Herenton with 42 percent of the vote.

One early poll showed Carol Chumney leading, with lots of “undecideds” and virtually no white support for the mayor. That poll, of course, was designed to convince Herenton to bow out and to get Shelby County mayor A C Wharton to enter the race. Fat chance.

Another poll showed Herman Morris gaining ground but still losing. His handlers were all over that, claiming their man had momentum, as if that is the most important thing in an election.

Yet another poll showed Herenton winning by a whisker. The excitement was almost unbearable! Don’t touch that dial! Stay tuned!

The most outrageous poll, taken by Steve Ethridge and published by The Commercial Appeal just before the election, showed Morris running close with Chumney and within striking distance of Herenton. This played neatly into the CA‘s editorial endorsement of Morris and the Morris yard signs that said “only” Morris could win. As it turned out, Morris could “only” win if the only other candidate was Prince Mongo. Chumney squeaked past Morris by 22,000 votes. And Herenton shocked the world at 495 Union Avenue by getting twice as many votes as Morris.

The CA and Ethridge should be ashamed and disgraced but not because they, in effect, threw the election to Herenton by low-balling Chumney and unrealistically boosting Morris, as some have suggested. They should be ashamed because they used the CA‘s stature as the city’s only daily newspaper to sell a highly dubious piece of partisan polling as big news, knowing full well it would be seized upon by the Morris camp.

Some anti-Herenton voters no doubt felt that they would be “wasting” their vote if they cast it for Morris or Chumney. Pollsters have a name for a poll with an intended outcome: “push” poll.

Some polls are more honest than others, but as far as I’m concerned, the benefit of the doubt goes against all of them. I know far too many people who’ve been involved in campaigns over the years, and winning may not be everything to them but it sure beats coming in second. What all the pollsters and their fans fail to grasp is that, in Memphis at least, voting and responding to a poll are not the same thing.

If a candidate runs a serious campaign and that candidate’s previous accomplishments and present positions on the issues make him or her seem like a worthy public servant, then that candidate absolutely deserves your vote, and polls be damned.

Voters, fortunately, can be pretty discerning. John Willingham, who said he had 10,000 black supporters, got only 1,118 votes in all. You can bet the Shelby County Republican Party, which endorsed him and put out sample ballots supporting him, is doing some hard thinking, if it is actually possible for them to think.

The most accurate predictor, on the other hand, turned out to be Herenton, who said the race was between him and Chumney and he would win it. It was, and he did.

I know, columnists and reporters also call people on the phone and try to get them to open up about all kinds of things. Some of us write opinion columns, like this one. But that’s different from a poll masquerading as news.

This opinion column is worth exactly what you paid for it. In that respect, it has one thing in common with a poll.

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Politics Politics Feature

Yacoubian Poll Shows Herenton Leading…Barely

With the final poll, the one to be taken of all voters on
Election Day, Thursday, October 4th, just around the bend, late
sampling taken by established local pollsters provide some clue as to what the
portents are.

Berje Yacoubian, whose well-established Yacoubian Research
firm has taken the measure of numerous significant elections over the last few
decades, has provided The Flyer with exclusive use of the tables and
results of a mayoral poll taken over a four-day period, with polling itself
undertaken on Thursday night, September 20th, and Monday night,
September 24th.

Some 395 respondents across various age, racial, and
neighborhood lines were asked a variety of questions, and pollster Yacoubian
reckons the degree of accuracy to be plus or minus 4.8 percent.

The bottom-line results: Respondents stated their
preferences in this order – Herenton, 30 percent; Chumney, 28 percent; Morris,
21 percent; Willingham, 2 percent; undecided, 18 percent; none of the above, 1
percent.

Chumney, it would seem, is maintaining the viable position,
at or near the lead, that she has held in a variety of polls going back to the
spring. Morris appears to have broadened his support since those earlier polls,
while Willingham has not managed to gain much ground.

Almost as telling are the results in other categories.
Asked to evaluate the prior job performance of the candidates on a scale ranging
from poor to excellent, councilwoman Chumney led the others with 40 percent
rating her excellent or above average, followed by Morris with 33 percent in
that category, Herenton with 31 percent; and Willingham with 15 percent.

\Incumbent mayor Herenton was rated as superior to the
others on the scale of his ability to foster economic development, with a rating
of 32 percent to Chumney’s 28 percent to Morris’ 20 percent to 1 percent for
Willingham.

Chumney leads the others as most likely to produce good
results for education, with 36 percent, compared to former schools
superintendent Herenton’s 29 percent and Morris’ 13 percent, and Willingham’s 2
percent.

Perhaps most surprisingly, Chumney, who has produced a
15-point crime plan, is rated best on that score, with 26 percent preferring
her, to 24 percent for Herenton, whose Blue Crush plan is now in effect, to 20
percent for Morris, and 1 percent for Willingham.

(Willingham’s relatively unimpressive showings may reflect
voter uncertainty rather than disapproval, with a whopping 42 percent of
respondents recording themselves as “not sure” about his job performance,
compared to 22 percent for both Morris and Chumney and only 3 percent in that
category for the mayor.)

Interestingly, a resurgent Morris led the other candidates
when the question was, Who would be your second choice? He garnered 29 percent
to 26 for Chumney, 7 for Willingham, and only 5 for Herenton.

An additional poll question asked voters for their attitude
toward amending the city charter to mandate a two-term (8-year) limit for both
the mayor and members of the city council. A convincing 71 percent approved the
change, with 17 opposing it and 12 percent uncertain.

Percentage-wise, the sample of those polled broke down this
way: African-American females, 35 percent; white females, 25 percent, and 20
percent apiece for both white males and African-American males.

Age-wise, the voters sampled were predominantly in the
category of 35 to 64 years old, with 56 percent. Next came those 65 or older, 33
percent; and, finally, voters aged 34 and under, 10 percent.

The methodology of the poll assumes these breakdowns to be
as close as possible to the ratios obtained in actual elections in recent
years.

For the complete results, check links below.

Yacoubian Results
Yacoubian Summary
Yacoubian Addendum
Yacoubian Methodology
Yacoubian Crosstabulation
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Categories
Politics Politics Feature

No-Shows

By now, with early voting under way and scarcely two weeks to go before Election Day itself, it is apparent — even to the extreme Pollyanna types among us — that Mayor Willie Herenton will not be aiding the voters (or his opponents) by participating in any multi-candidate forums.

That’s unless you count the two times he has appeared in series with his three major adversaries — City Council member Carol Chumney, former MLGW head Herman Morris, and former Shelby County commissioner John Willingham.

The first of those occasions occurred several weeks back when the mayor deigned to appear — separately, as did the others — before a public evaluation session of the Coalition for a Better Memphis, answering the same set of policy questions as his opponents. He was third in line for that event and, coincidentally or not, also finished third in the coalition’s ultimate numerical evaluations (behind Morris and Chumney, in that order).

Only last week, Herenton made another partial concession to the forum concept when, at Homebuilders on Germantown Parkway, he deigned, albeit briefly, to sit on the same stage as his three main contenders at an event put on by the Cordova Neighborhood Association. Speaking first, he itemized his dogs and ponies and then left, leaving Chumney to chastise him for not staying to “answer questions” and Morris and Willingham to do similar tut-tutting.

Actually, the format of the evening, which also featured candidates in several council districts, did not permit questions, nor, ipso facto, did it allow for answers.

Herenton next had an opportunity for some joint Q&A action on Sunday, when he, the other mayoral candidates, and aspirants for various council seats were invited to appear at an event sponsored by the Central Gardens Neighborhood Association at Idlewild School.

His Honor had accepted the association’s invite, but he opted out when he learned he would not be able, as at the two prior events, to speak his two-cents’ worth and then depart but would be expected to stick around with the others to field questions — including some from the audience and from children at three neighborhood schools and, potentially at least, from his opponents.

As it happened, the Central Gardens folks excluded several candidates who had not completed the association’s fairly extensive questionnaire on issues before a deadline had passed. As a result, both Chumney and Willingham, along with various council candidates, found themselves on the outside looking in, having to settle for passing out their campaign literature to arriving attendees.

Among mayoral contenders, only Morris and the inimitable Laura Davis Aaron were empanelled. Morris, who — buoyed by a fresh endorsement from The Commercial Appeal — seems to be enjoying something of a late rise, performed well, and Aaron, whose persona has sometimes seemed to be an SNL improvisation, outdid herself with a dire warning — Grim Reaper-like, given the presence of the student corps — that children educated in the public schools, unlike their home-schooled counterparts, would die.

Jackson Baker

A rare group sighting: the top four mayoral candidates in Cordova

(It was some consolation that “Dr.” Aaron, who claims to receive visions from God, did not say when.)

One of the questions directed at the field of candidates concerned their attitude toward those of their opponents who had spurned the opportunity to come forth. Predictably, the absent Herenton drew barbs from Morris and others — as did incumbent District 8, Position 1 councilman Joe Brown from opponent Ian Randolph, who has picked up some good late support in various quarters.

Brown has indeed been a no-show at the campaign year’s public forums and other collective events, whether or not his reason is what Randolph alleges it is — to exploit voter confusion of himself with the other Joe Brown, the former Criminal Court judge who now holds court on syndicated national television.

The other main target of complaints concerning his chronic abseentism from public scrutiny was Reid Hedgepeth, a political newcomer who is seeking election to the District 9, Position 3 seat being vacated by council veteran Jack Sammons and who has stout support from Sammons, FedEx founder Fred Smith, and other influential Memphians.

Hedgepeth’s support group also includes the first-time candidate’s fellow developers, or so alleges opponent Lester Lit, a retired businessman who makes that charge in a radio ad now running and who verbally blistered Hedgepeth on Sunday for consistently making himself scarce.

“Vote for me or Desi [Franklin] or Mary [Wilder]” was Lit’s generous advice to attendees at the Central Gardens forum. (Both Franklin and Wilder, who also seek the District 9, Position 3 seat, were present, as they, like Lit, have been for other candidate forums this year.)

Hedgepeth is a special case. Unlike Brown, who maintains his own North Memphis community center for constituents, and unlike Herenton, who has been the cynosure at several mass rallies in the inner city and who has made selected drop-in appearances elsewhere, Hedgepeth has, by apparent design, been the subject of few public sightings.

Sammons, who by general acknowledgement is directing the Hedgepeth campaign, pooh-poohs the necessity of his protégé’s making appearances at forums and other such events. “He needs to be out where the people are,” said the retiring councilman on the occasion of the recent opening of Hedgepeth’s Park Place campaign headquarters.

And that, Sammons went on, passing his hand over a wall map, meant concentrating on door-to-door canvassing. It should be said that there are skeptics in other candidates’ camps who doubt that Hedgepeth is doing much door-to-door, either. What is incontestable is that Hedgepeth has beaucoup campaign signs — including what would seem to be scores of large wooden ones — all over District 9 and, for that matter, in adjoining areas, both inside and outside the city.

And this week saw the appearance of a TV spot in which the 30-year-old former University of Memphis tight end appears both personable and focused and promises, once in office, to be the source of “straight talk” and “practical solutions.”

Meanwhile, it would seem, voters will have to do without much of either. Hedgepeth’s highly packaged and well-financed campaign so far has distinct resemblances to the election efforts of Nikki Tinker, a repeat candidate for the 9th District congressional seat who, in both 2006 and in the campaign she has already launched for 2008, has eschewed much in the way of policy statements and whose public appearances are highly controlled. She too, like Hedgepeth, has relied heavily on direct mail, visible campaign paraphernalia, and expensively produced media.

Whether coincidentally or not, both Hedgepeth and Tinker also reportedly have stout support in local corporate circles.

None of that conclusively demonstrates anything, for better or worse, about the potential of either candidate in office, but it is the kind of outward, detached manifestation that Joe Saino, a candidate for District 9, Position 2, had in mind on Sunday at the Central Gardens forum when — almost in the manner of ’60s balladeer Joe South — he denounced the prevalence of “signs, signs, signs.”

But even Saino, a retired businessman and public official best known these days for his muckraking blog efforts at memphiswatchdog.org, has his signs out. They all do. On the day after Election Day we’ll see which ones were omens and which just turned out to be litter.

Next week: the Flyer‘s pre-election issue