After holding as much as a 15-point lead, the Memphis Grizzlies lost to the Portland Trailblazers Friday night in Portland, 110-98.
Rudy Gay led the Griz in scoring with 31 points. Pau Gasol had 19, but none in the second half, as Portland double-teamed Gasol and shut him off.
Portland was led by LaMarcus Aldrige (30) and Brandon Roy (22). Complete stats here. For more Griz stuff, see Chris Herrington’s GrizBlog, Beyond the Arc.
In their first major decision since taking over stewardship of the Grizzlies franchise, new front-office honcho Chris Wallace and head-coach-with-clout Marc Iavaroni did the right thing during last week’s NBA draft, selecting Ohio State point guard Mike Conley Jr. with the fourth pick.
Up until draft time itself, there were still conflicting reports that had the Grizzlies taking, variably, Florida center Joakim Noah, Florida swingman Corey Brewer, or Conley. I’d been pushing Conley for a couple of weeks, and, by that time, my sources indicated he was the most likely pick. So I was happy to see it happen.
Conley is a lightning-quick playmaker with excellent court vision and poise. He’ll be able to push the ball up the court and set up teammates for good shots in transition. In the half court, he should be able to use his quickness to come off screens and get into the paint, where his ability to make shots with either hand evokes San Antonio Spurs star Tony Parker. But Conley is also a long-limbed, opportunistic defender who, in concert with second-year point guard Kyle Lowry, will allow the Grizzlies to apply defensive pressure for 48 minutes a game. The Grizzlies needed a triggerman to enable Iavaroni’s preferred style — uptempo basketball predicated on aggressive, attacking defense — and they found him.
Conley was thought to be a reach at #4 in some circles — unproven conventional wisdom about not taking point guards high in the draft that, like so many other unfounded sports clichés, refuses to die. But in the days before the draft, ESPN.com analyst John Hollinger published what is certain to be a highly influential study about what factors of college basketball production are indicators of pro success. Among the areas Hollinger found to be indicators were high steal rates (which indicate pro-level athleticism), playmaking (an indicator of offensive skill and decision making as measured by an advanced statistic Hollinger calls “pure point rating”), and production relative to age.
Conley was a prolific ball hawk at Ohio State (more than two steals a game), boasted a higher pure point rating than any prospect in the draft (and the fourth best of any college prospect in the past six years), and was the leader and clutch scorer for a 35-4 national title contender as a 19-year-old freshman. By Hollinger’s measure, Conley graded out as the third best prospect in the draft (after Kevin Durant and Greg Oden).
Before Hollinger dropped what is likely a transformative piece of hoops scholarship, I published my own modest, Griz-draft-specific study on Beyond the Arc at MemphisFlyer.com/Grizblog. I looked at the recent success rates of prospects similar to the ones the Grizzlies were looking at, focusing on Top 10 picks of the past 10 years. Based on that sample, players of Conley’s type — highly regarded pure point guards — were much more likely to meet expectations in the NBA than players similar to Noah or Brewer.
Of the 17 point guards who have been Top 10 picks in the past decade, 13 of them have developed into all-star caliber players or quality starters. Of the mere four who haven’t, two of them were elite prospects whose careers were sidetracked by major injuries (Jay Williams and Shaun Livingston). Throw those players out, and the success rate of Conley types was 13 to 2.
The message of Hollinger’s study and my own? Not only did Conley have the most potential of any player available to the Grizzlies in last week’s draft. He was the safest pick.
Conley also looks like a probable fan favorite — no small consideration for a team trying to fix fissures that have erupted between the franchise and its fan base over the past couple of years.
For starters, the bright, personable Conley has copious regional and local connections: He was the ball boy on the 1994 Arkansas Razorback college basketball national title team. His mother’s family is from West Helena, Arkansas, and he has family in Bartlett. As an uptempo point guard, Conley (along with Lowry) will make Grizzlies games more entertaining this season. And, as a Beyond the Arc reader pointed out before the draft, Memphis hoops fans have a history of embracing dynamic point guards from Andre Turner, Elliot Perry, and Antonio Burks at the University of Memphis to Jason Williams with the Grizzlies. With any luck — and it won’t take much — Mike Conley Jr. should be the next in line.
A potentially momentous offseason for the Memphis Grizzlies commences this week with the NBA draft. Picking an unlucky fourth after posting the league’s worst record a year ago, the Grizzlies may have missed out on a sure thing (in the form of elite prospects Greg Oden and Kevin Durant) but now find before them a dizzying array of options. Here’s an attempt to see through the rumors, smoke screens, and general uncertainty for a glimpse of what might happen Thursday night and what it might mean — in the form of three key questions.
If the Grizzlies pick fourth, what are the options?
The Grizzlies are held hostage somewhat by the Atlanta Hawks, who pick third. The Hawks are likely to tab Florida power forward Al Horford, who has emerged as the consensus number-three prospect in the draft. Then again, the Hawks have shocked us before.
The Grizzlies love Horford and would pick him if he somehow slips past number three — and I wouldn’t be surprised if a trade led to Ohio State point guard Mike Conley Jr. or Chinese forward Yi Jianlian going third instead. But, assuming Horford is off the board, the Grizzlies are likely to choose among four prospects: Conley, fellow Florida players Joakim Noah and Corey Brewer, and North Carolina’s Brandon Wright.
The thought here is that Conley — a pure point guard with the quickness, handle, poise, and court vision to be a star — is the prospect with the highest ceiling.
Noah seems to be a perfect fit for the Grizzlies. He’s an active rebounder and defender who doesn’t need a lot of touches to be effective. The hitch: He may not be quite good enough to pick at number four. If you’re picking that high in a good draft, a team should be looking for a star. Noah reeks of role player.
Brewer and Wright are long shots that shouldn’t be counted out. Brewer is perhaps better equipped to impact the game on both ends of the floor than any of these players and fits new coach Marc Iavaroni’s preferred style. Wright is raw and would seem to duplicate Gasol’s strengths and weaknesses but has as much raw talent as anyone in the draft after Oden and Durant.
The hunch here? Conley gets the nod over Noah.
Will there be any trades?
Draft day trades could turn everything upside down, but right now a truly major trade — i.e., dealing Gasol — seems unlikely. New lead executive Chris Wallace scouted Gasol heavily while in Boston and Iavaroni is a noted big man’s coach. It seems unlikely the new regime will deal Gasol before having a chance to work with him.
More likely would be a trade involving another established player — with Mike Miller, Hakim Warrick, and Stromile Swift the likely subjects — to acquire either a young power player to pair with Gasol (Denver’s Nene and Utah’s Paul Millsap might make some sense) or another draft pick.
What will the pick mean?
The week after the rookie draft, the NBA’s free-agent period will begin with the Grizzlies poised to be one of the few teams with significant money to spend. And make no mistake, the draft and free agency are connected. What the Grizzlies think they can do in free agency is likely to influence what they do on draft day. For that reason, the Grizzlies’ draft pick should be a tipoff as to what player — or at least what type of player — the team will target in free agency.
If Noah, Brewer, or Wright are the pick and no other trades are made to net a point guard, then expect the Griz to target Milwaukee Bucks point guard Mo Williams, long thought to be the team’s preferred free-agent prize.
But if Conley is the pick (as I suspect), then the Grizzlies will look elsewhere in free agency. Addressing the long-acknowledged need for a more physical presence in the paint would seem to be most likely. But the options among power players in this free-agent class are meager. Instead, don’t be surprised if the Grizzlies go after one of the talented young swingmen available, such as Charlotte’s Gerald Wallace or Seattle’s Rashard Lewis.
Chris Wallace seems to prefer accumulating the best talent available for the Grizzlies rather than focusing on positional needs. Iavaroni prizes versatility. In Phoenix, Iavaroni was used to working with unconventional lineups. So, don’t assume the Grizzlies do the obvious this summer.
For up-to-date news and analysis before, during, and after the draft, go to Beyond the Arc, the Flyer‘s Grizzlies blog at MemphisFlyer.com/grizblog.
From the Detroit News: “Piper Billups’ ears perked up when the chatter at the nail salon turned to her husband, Pistons player Chauncey Billups.
“One woman announced Billups was leaving Detroit to sign with Milwaukee. Another brought up Los Angeles and Memphis, which piqued Piper Billups’ interest.
“‘Hmmm, I never heard that,’ Piper Billups laughed, while recounting the scene. ‘I was sitting up there thinking, Did you hear it from me? I am not moving to Memphis.'”
The story goes on to detail the Pistons’ efforts to retain Billups. It does not explain why Piper Billups thinks Detroit is so swell, compared to Memphis. She just might need to get out more.
Twelve stories, and not one of them hit the nail on the head.
The Commercial Appeal‘s two-week Grizzlies-palooza failed to identify the real reason the newspaper is so fired up about Tuesday’s NBA draft lottery.
It’s not, as the headline over columnist Geoff Calkins’ story said, because the “Future of Griz riding on right bounce.” Nor is it, as the headline over Grizzlies beat writer Ron Tillery’s story said, “Why the Grizzlies NEED to win the lottery.”
It’s because the future of the CA is riding on the right bounce, and the CA NEEDS to win the lottery.
Daily newspapers and sportswriters are always among the big winners when a professional sports franchise comes to town, but they rarely admit it. Major-league sports is one of the few subjects that can still attract a mass audience of fans and readers. The news operations of television stations — there are five of them in Memphis — can make it on murder and mayhem and weather. A daily newspaper — there is one of them in Memphis — and good writers like Calkins and Tillery need headliners and big stories.
No Grizzlies means nothing but the Redbirds, golf, and prep sports to “fill” the space between Tiger basketball and SEC football. And that would mean further declines in a readership that is already shrinking.
So, come on, guys, go ahead and say it: Professional athletes are overpaid mercenaries but good local reporters and editors are here for the long haul. If the Grizzlies win the lottery and get one of the top two draft picks, it’s good for the franchise and it’s also good for the daily paper (and to a lesser extent the Flyer). I don’t care if Pau and Stro stay or go, but I do care if Geoff, Ron, Mark Perrusquia, Mary Powers, Otis Sanford, and the Flyer‘s Chris Herrington and some others stay gainfully employed.
Whether the Grizzlies are all that important to Memphis is another question. Some pretty strong evidence runs the other way: The Detroit Tigers went to the World Series last year; the Detroit Pistons are three games away from the NBA Finals; the Detroit Red Wings are two games away from the NHL Stanley Cup Finals. But the city of Detroit is about 0-5 against the world in the 21st century, with half its population gone since the 1950s, Ford and General Motors bleeding jobs and profits, Chrysler putting its fate in the hands of private-equity investors, and Comerica Bank — the corporation that bought the naming rights to Comerica Park, the home of the Tigers — moving its headquarters to Texas. Not coincidentally, Detroit still has Mitch Albom and two daily newspapers, thanks in no small part to their healthy sports sections.
Pittsburgh has three major-league teams but is also bleeding residents and jobs. And, of course, there is New Orleans, proud home of the Saints.
If the Grizzlies help keep FedEx in Memphis, then FedExForum was worth every dollar. If FedEx were to move a substantial number of jobs, then it wouldn’t matter a hoot if the Grizzlies won the NBA championship.
A case can be made that colleges, medical centers, safety, and good public schools are more important to cities than pro sports teams. Think Oxford, Tupelo, Hattiesburg, Cleveland, Mississippi, Nashville, and Murfreesboro. Then think Batesville, West Memphis, McComb, Greenville, and Memphis.
What Memphis needs is a Hype Hall of Fame. The obvious location would be The Pyramid, with plaques commemorating Sidney Shlenker, the inclinator, the Big Dig, the Hard Rock Café, and Rakapolis. The music wing should include a tribute to tributes to Elvis Week. The football wing would feature highlights from the Arena Football League, the USFL, the Mad Dogs, and the uniform and oversized shoulder pads of Albert Means, the greatest football prospect who never made all-conference in college. The basketball wing should have a place for Dajuan Wagner, Bryant Reeves, and The Commercial Appeal‘s breathless build-up to “Christmas in May,” “the ultimate birthday party,” and “the biggest thing to happen to Memphis since God invented fire and the pig,” otherwise known as the NBA draft lottery.