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Can’t-Miss Cards?

Since the St. Louis Cardinals last played in the World Series (2013), the franchise has suited up six prospects of the “can’t miss” variety. These are the future stars who become centerpieces in annual postseason runs. Alas, the six players share two distinct similarities: each has played for the Memphis Redbirds, and each has, in fact, missed.

Oscar Taveras was the Cardinals’ Minor League Player of the Year with Double-A Springfield in 2012. By the time he suited up for Memphis in 2013, Taveras was the second-ranked prospect in all of baseball. A line-drive machine from the left side of the plate, Taveras battled injuries over two seasons with the Redbirds, but still hit .306 over 46 games in 2013 and .318 over 62 games before being promoted to St. Louis in 2014. He hit a game-tying home run in the only game St. Louis would win in the 2014 National League Championship Series, then died with his girlfriend in a car accident two weeks later. Taveras was intoxicated behind the wheel.

Michael Wacha needed only 15 games at the Triple-A level to convince the Cardinals he was ready for a big-league rotation. After posting a 2.65 ERA for Memphis in 2013, Wacha joined St. Louis and came within an out of no-hitting the Washington Nationals in only his ninth major-league start. He earned MVP honors in the 2013 NLCS, twice beating the Dodgers and not allowing a run in 13 innings. He battled injuries but remained a part of the Cardinals’ rotation for six years, winning 17 games in 2015. Since departing as a free agent after the 2019 season, Wacha has pitched for five different clubs. Now with the Kansas City Royals, he’s four wins shy of 100 for his career.

Alex Reyes was the Cardinals’ Minor League Pitcher of the Year in 2015 at the tender age of 21. He struck out 93 hitters in only 65 innings for Memphis in 2016 before a late-season promotion to St. Louis, where he posted a 1.57 ERA over 46 innings. But Reyes only pitched in 20 games over the next four years, sidelined by one significant arm injury after another. He made the National League All-Star team as a closer in 2021, a season he topped for the Cardinals with 29 saves. But he hasn’t thrown a pitch since surrendering a walk-off homer in a wild-card loss to the Dodgers to end that season.

Jack Flaherty was the Cardinals’ Minor League Pitcher of the Year in 2017 when he helped the Redbirds to a Pacific Coast League championship by going 7-2 with a 2.74 ERA over 15 starts. He was a certified big-league ace two years later, posting a 2.75 ERA and the most strikeouts (231) in a season for St. Louis since Hall of Famer Bob Gibson retired in 1975. But by 2023, Flaherty was a trade piece, going to Baltimore in return for current Redbirds infielder Cesar Prieto.

Dylan Carlson was the Cardinals’ Minor League Player of the Year in 2019 when he hit .361 over 18 games with Memphis after a September promotion from Springfield. He lost what would have been a full season at Memphis to the 2020 pandemic, but still took over right field in St. Louis in 2021. Carlson finished third in National League Rookie of the Year voting that season after hitting .266 with 18 home runs and 65 RBIs. But injuries have diminished his production. Carlson batted .198 over 59 games this season before the Cardinals traded him to Tampa Bay last week.


It’s unfair to include 22-year-old Jordan Walker among this group of fallen stars, but you can’t help but wonder (if not worry) with Walker posting pedestrian numbers (.252, 7 home runs through Sunday) against Triple-A pitching after leading the Cardinals with a .276 average a year ago. Prospects are fun to rank and track as they rapidly climb the minor-league ladder. But sustainable success in the big leagues remains the goal. And for a franchise now more than a decade removed from its last National League pennant, “can’t miss” must be reconsidered.

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The St. Louis Cardinals’ Memphis Mafia

Thanks to a playoff format that grants two wild-card entries in each league, the 2016 St. Louis Cardinals are clinging to life as contenders in the National League. Trailing the Chicago Cubs by nine games, the Cardinals stand little chance of winning a fourth straight NL Central championship. But through Sunday’s games, St. Louis is tied with the Mets atop “the fourth division,” the wild-card race.

Five recent Memphis Redbirds will have a lot to say about whether or not St. Louis reaches the postseason a sixth year in a row. Here’s a breakdown of what we’ve seen from this quintet . . . and what we might expect as summer heats up.

Stephen Piscotty — Jason Heyward is a very good rightfielder. He won a Gold Glove and helped the Cardinals win 100 games last season before signing a fat free-agent contract with the Chicago Cubs. Judging by the standings today, Heyward is a wise man. But judging by the numbers Heyward has produced compared with those of Piscotty, the Cardinals have upgraded rightfield and at a little over two percent(!) of the salary Chicago is paying Heyward this year ($21.6 million). Through Sunday, Heyward is hitting .240, with 4 home runs and 22 RBIs for the North Siders. Piscotty’s figures: 308, 7, and 35. Piscotty has a cannon for an arm with range to match Heyward’s. The Stanford alum should be batting third (or fourth) in St. Louis for years to come.

Aledmys Diaz

Aledmys Diaz — Shortstop has been a developmental blind spot for the Cardinals’ system. Brendan Ryan, Tyler Greene, and Pete Kozma made their way to St. Louis via Memphis, but found themselves overmatched by big-league pitching. Imports like David Eckstein and Jhonny Peralta have manned the position since Edgar Renteria departed after the 2004 season. But when Peralta was shelved by a thumb injury in spring training, the 25-year-old Diaz found himself on the big-league roster. (We caught but a glimpse of the Cuban import last year in Memphis, where he hit .380 in 14 games.) Through Sunday, Diaz has hit .315, drilled 8 homers, and driven in 32 runs. Even more impressive, he’s forced a shift of three-quarters of the Cardinals’ 2015 infield. Just off the disabled list, Peralta is now at third base, Matt Carpenter has moved from third to second, and Kolten Wong — hitting .222 in limited play — is back in Memphis, hoping to rediscover his swing. Diaz will be in the discussion for National League Rookie of the Year.

Carlos Martinez — With comparisons to another famous Martinez — Pedro — this Dominican flame-thrower made the All-Star team (in 2015) before his 24th birthday. But after going 10-3 with a 2.52 ERA over the season’s first half, he ran out of gas, splitting eight decisions with a 3.73 ERA over the second half before being shut down for the postseason with shoulder fatigue. He’s been inconsistent this season, but leads the St. Louis rotation with seven wins and a 3.46 ERA. The Cardinals’ starting pitching has been the team’s most disappointing unit this season. If Martinez continues to grow toward ace status, other — weaker — areas of the rotation will be easier to address.

Michael Wacha — It’s hardly reached a Rick Ankiel-level of alarm (yet), but the drop in effectiveness for the golden boy of the 2013 postseason should be a major concern for Cardinal general manager John Mozeliak. Like Martinez, Wacha was an All-Star in 2015 when he led the Cardinals with 17 wins and posted a 3.38 ERA in 181 innings. But after starting this season 2-0, Wacha has lost six straight decisions and recently gave up 21 earned runs over four starts. (He was sharp in a no-decision at Pittsburgh last Friday, allowing two earned runs in seven innings.) Wacha claims his arm feels fine. He turns 25 next month and is an extraordinary asset for the Cardinals as he won’t reach free agency until 2020. But Wacha simply has to find the groove that earned him MVP honors in the 2013 National League Championship Series. Otherwise, middle-relief awaits.

Randal Grichuk — He’s scaled the centerfield wall to rob home runs from opponents. He’s delivered a walk-off home run (against the Cubs on May 23rd). He even wears number 15, magnifying comparisons with Jim Edmonds, a previous Cardinal centerfielder and a member of the franchise’s Hall of Fame. But the 24-year-old Grichuk remains a work in progress. After contributing a slash line of .276/.329/.548 in 2015, Grichuk has dropped to .210/.281/.400 this season. He had more strikeouts (110) than hits (89) a year ago, and the ratio hasn’t shifted (53 and 42 this year). Grichuk brings the proverbial “five tools” to the ballpark, but the sixth (and most important) “tool” — consistency — remains elusive.

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St. Louis Cardinals Mid-Season Report

Matt Carpenter

You could have won a bet or two last March had you suggested Jorge Rondon, Eric Fornataro, Nick Greenwood, and Marco Gonzales (who??) would each pitch for the St. Louis Cardinals before the 2014 All-Star break. (The next time someone suggests a baseball team has too much pitching, stifle laughter and take the conversation elsewhere.) Injuries have compromised what appeared to be the deepest pitching staff in baseball, sending three Cardinal starters — Joe Kelly, Jaime Garcia, and most ominously, Michael Wacha — to the disabled list and leaving the fate of the defending National League champions all the more on the right arm of ace Adam Wainwright.

But even with the I-55 pitching shuttle from Memphis, (don’t forget Sam Freeman or Tyler Lyons), the Cardinals’ current crisis of confidence has more to do with the men trusted to score runs than with those tasked with preventing them. Even with a 1.89 ERA (through Sunday), Wainwright has four losses. Before going down with his mysterious shoulder injury, Wacha lost five games despite a 2.79 ERA. Near the bottom of baseball in runs and home runs, the Cardinal batting order no longer intimidates.

After St. Louis lost the 2013 World Series to Boston, Cardinal general manager John Mozeliak decided to part ways with a pair of veterans — rightfielder Carlos Beltran and third-baseman David Freese — to open playing time for a pair of recent Memphis Redbirds: second-baseman Kolten Wong and first-baseman Matt Adams. This transition required a pair of position moves by a pair of 2013 All-Stars, with Matt Carpenter shifting from second base to his natural spot at third, and Allen Craig moving from first base to rightfield. Whether or not it’s related to the position switch, Carpenter and Craig have underperformed, and dramatically when compared with their 2013 numbers. After leading all of baseball in hits last season, Carpenter has seen his batting average drop from .318 to .282. Worse, he’s striking out far too frequently (65 times) for a leadoff hitter (he went down 98 times all of last season). As for Craig — a metronomic .300 hitter throughout his professional career — the drop in production has been precipitous. He’s currently batting .249 (compared with .315 a year ago) and slugging .365 (compared with .522 just two years ago). With Craig signed through 2017 and Carpenter through 2019, these are numbers that need to take a turn for the better. Taken together, they’re a tipping point.

Solutions? The Cardinals hope one is Oscar Taveras, the hitter scouts and Cardinal fans have been breathlessly anticipating for two years now. After a 2013 season compromised by an ankle injury, Taveras homered in his Cardinal debut at Busch Stadium on May 31st. (To this point, it’s the highlight of the Cardinal season.) But after struggling (.189 batting average) through 11 games, Taveras returned to Memphis, where he resumed mashing pitchers in the Pacific Coast League (.318 batting average, .502 slugging percentage with the Redbirds). The challenge for St. Louis is finding Taveras a regular spot in the batting order (he was recalled to St. Louis last week). The Cardinals have been resistant to playing Taveras in centerfield, so he’ll have to share time with Craig in right or veteran Matt Holliday in left if he’s to make anywhere near the impact the Cardinals hope he does. (As a left-handed batter, he could theoretically platoon with either of the other two right-handed corner outfielders.)

Beyond Taveras, the Cardinals will at least dip their toes in the trade waters this month (the non-waiver deadline is July 31st). And this is where current Redbird prospects like Stephen Piscotty and Randal Grichuk could come into play. If the Cardinal system has a surplus anywhere — it’s not pitching, remember — it’s in the outfield. Could a run-producing third-baseman or second-baseman be found? (A shoulder injury recently sidelined Wong, who homered in his return to St. Louis Sunday .) Bottom line: for the first time since the Cardinals acquired Mark McGwire during the 1997 season, their offense is without a marquee slugger. The highest-paid hitter remains Holliday, whose current averages (.263 batting, .378 slugging) are shades of his career figures (.309, .523). In some respects, he’s the face of this season’s struggles. For an offense that leads the National League in double plays, Holliday has hit into the most: 13.

The Milwaukee Brewers are for real. The Pittsburgh Pirates and Cincinnati Reds are back in contention after sluggish starts. For the first time in years, the St. Louis Cardinals are fighting for relevance, not so much among World Series contenders, but within their own five-team division. Take comfort, Cardinal Nation, in the Chicago Cubs.

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The Redbird Way

When the St. Louis Cardinals were swept by the Boston Red Sox in the 2004 World Series, exactly one of their everyday players had come up through the Cards’ minor-league system. (He was first baseman Albert Pujols, a diamond in the rough, to say the least.) Fast forward to October 27, 2011. When Allen Craig caught a fly ball off the bat of Texas Ranger David Murphy to clinch the Cardinals’ 11th World Series championship, seven of the nine players on the field at Busch Stadium were farm-raised (and played in Memphis for the Redbirds).

This season, for the first time since the Cardinals’ Triple-A affiliate moved to the Bluff City in 1998, four of the Cardinals’ five starting pitchers on opening day were former Redbirds. (Adam Wainwright, Jaime Garcia, Lance Lynn, and Shelby Miller have combined to win 29 games through Sunday, despite Garcia being on the disabled list since May 19th.)

From Last to First

In 2005, the St. Louis farm system was ranked 30th by Baseball America. (That’s dead last.) As recently as 2010, the system ranked 29th. But now, in 2013? The Cardinals system is ranked first among all major-league clubs.

How has such a large collection of managers, coaches, and players — the Cardinals system features seven minor-league teams — made such a dramatic and positive transition in so short a period of time? The change began, ironically enough, after the Cardinals beat the Detroit Tigers to win the 2006 World Series. That team snuck into the playoffs with an 83-78 record, then played its best baseball of the season in October. But the supporting cast around Pujols — veteran stars such as Jim Edmonds, Scott Rolen, and David Eckstein — had grown old. St. Louis followed up its championship with a dud of a 2007 season (78-84). Edmonds, Rolen, and Eckstein departed and general manager Walt Jocketty was replaced by John Mozeliak. A franchise famous for the first extensive farm system in the game (in the 1920s and 1930s) shifted its core philosophy back to player development.

When the iconic Pujols departed for a 10-year, $254 million contract with the Los Angeles Angels after the 2011 championship season, the Cardinals gave his position to Craig, an 8th-round draft pick in 2006. (Craig was paid $475,000 in 2012 and drove in 92 runs, 13 fewer than Pujols did for the Angels.) When former Cy Young winner Chris Carpenter was forced into retirement by a nerve condition in his pitching arm this spring, the Cardinals gave his spot in the rotation to Miller, the club’s top pick in the 2009 draft. Farm-grown talent is inexpensive (until free agency arrives after six seasons in the majors), but can it keep a proud franchise among pennant contenders one year after another?

John Vuch is the Cardinals’ director of minor-league operations and has been with the franchise since 1979. He relishes the Cardinals’ climb up minor-league rankings but says it starts at the top. “There was somewhat of a philosophical change,” Vuch says, “in terms of taking our lead from the major-league staff and developing continuity — doing the same things in St. Louis, Memphis, Springfield, and all the way down to our Gulf Coast League teams and our Dominican academy. Players go from level to level, and they know what to expect. No surprises. That’s helped a lot.”

The first half of the 2013 season has accentuated the value of the Cardinals’ farm system, as one pitcher after another has either struggled on the mound or been forced to the disabled list by injury. In early May, veterans Mitchell Boggs and Marc Rzepczynski, having been knocked out of the St. Louis bullpen, were demoted and replaced on the Cardinals roster by Seth Maness and Carlos Martinez (a 21-year-old flame-thrower promoted from Double-A Springfield). Maness and Martinez each pitched a scoreless inning in relief of yet another rookie (Shelby Miller) in a May 3rd victory at Milwaukee. Then when veteran Jake Westbrook was forced to the DL with elbow inflammation, John Gast filled the rotation slot and won his first two big-league starts. (Gast opened this season with an astounding 32 consecutive scoreless innings for Memphis.) When Garcia was shut down for the season on May 19th, Tyler Lyons left the Memphis rotation and won his first two starts for the Cardinals, retiring 17 Kansas City Royals in a row on May 28th. Home-run hitters may sell tickets and boost TV ratings, but pitching depth gets teams to October and playoff baseball.

“A few years ago,” Vuch says, “[former Cardinals pitching coach] Dave Duncan wanted us to develop more power pitchers. So we talked to our amateur scouting department and our pitching instructors. It’s one thing to have power arms, but Dunc’s philosophy has always been quality strikes, down in the zone. It’s not so much what type of delivery a pitcher uses, as long as he gets results.”

“The Cardinal Way”

The cover story in the May 27th issue of Sports Illustrated presented the St. Louis Cardinals as Major League Baseball’s model franchise, from the top down. If anyone is familiar with “the Cardinal Way” (as SI put it), it’s Ron (Pop) Warner, the Redbirds’ second-year manager. Warner was drafted by the Cardinals in 1991, played for the original 1998 Memphis Redbirds, and has coached or managed in the Cardinals system since retiring as a player after the 1999 season.

Warner acknowledges talent is the fundamental and most obvious factor in the revival of the Cardinals system. But he points out a less tangible factor that may come closer to revealing a philosophy … or “way.”

“We’re finding players with really good make-up,” Warner says. “If you get high make-up guys, they grind, they compete really hard. When you get guys like that, you find successful people … not just at baseball, but life. Combine that with talent, and you’ve got something. It makes it a lot easier for us to develop players.”

And how exactly can “high make-up” be recognized in a prospect? “It’s tough,” Warner says. “You look into a player’s background and find as much information as you can about them. We’re drafting guys who perform well in college. And usually when a player is performing well in college, there’s a reason: They’re tough, they compete. They may not be the most skilled players, but they figure out how to get it done. High aptitude: They listen, they want to learn and get better. And they actually try to apply what you teach them.”

Warner’s job is to prepare players for the major leagues, whether it’s over several seasons or as an emergency injury replacement. He’s also preparing future Cardinals, emphasizing the details in game-day preparation — that “way” again — that translate into wins at Busch Stadium. Even with the high roster fluctuation, the details have made a difference in Memphis, too, as the Redbirds are leading their division of the Pacific Coast League.

“You show up every day, and you’re a professional on and off the field,” Warner emphasizes. “It’s a privilege to wear this jersey. There’s a lot of history behind wearing the birds on the bat on your chest. We teach through fundamentals. We’ve never tried to find an identity. You make sure the little things that come along in a game are taken care of and play a hard nine innings. If we execute better than the other team, we know we have a chance to win.” Warner notes cases where a player may get “sideways” with his game-day preparation — swings in the batting cage, soft-toss, a baseball player’s grunt work — when he has to step in and remind the player that details matter in the climb up a minor-league ladder.

Three members of the 2013 Redbirds haven’t needed much reminding.

Second to None

For a franchise that has won as consistently as the Cardinals have since 2000, second base has been a remarkably volatile position. Since Fernando Vina went down with a hamstring injury during the 2003 season, St. Louis has turned to the following gaggle of infielders — one of them originally an outfielder — to man the position: Bo Hart, Tony Womack, Mark Grudzielanek, Ronnie Belliard, Aaron Miles, Adam Kennedy, Skip Schumaker, and Dan Descalso. This season, a natural third-baseman — Matt Carpenter — has been learning the less-than-natural art of turning a double play from the right side of the infield. The franchise that gave us Rogers Hornsby and Red Schoendienst has found itself challenged at securing a steady second-baseman.

Along comes Kolten Wong. At 5’9″ and 185 pounds, Wong’s size all but precludes him from playing anywhere except the middle infield. Good thing he plays second base so well. Drafted in the first round by St. Louis in 2011, Wong has already won two championships as a pro, with Class-A Quad Cities (Midwest League) in 2011 and Double-A Springfield (Texas League) in 2012. Wong was a Texas League All-Star last season when he hit .287 and stole 21 bases. According to Baseball America, Wong is the 84th-ranked prospect in all of baseball and tops among second-basemen. The 22-year-old native of Hilo, Hawaii, has hit .321 (through Sunday) for the Redbirds and was named the Cardinals’ minor-league Player of the Month for May.

“Kolten’s better defensively than I thought he would be,” Warner says, “this being just his second full season. Smooth. I thought we’d have to work on turning double plays. He’s pretty polished. His hands work with his feet. And he stays in a good hitting position.” Could Wong be a long-term solution for the Cardinals at a position that’s long been a game of musical chairs? “If he keeps developing the way he has so far,” Warner says, “I see no reason he can’t be that guy someday.”

Wong has fully embraced Cardinals culture, that much-talked-about “way.” He’s relished the wisdom handed down by veteran teammates like Rob Johnson and Brock Peterson, the small tips that paint a big picture for rising prospects. “You know how to win,” Wong says. “You know how to carry yourself and the expectations on the way to St. Louis. You’re constantly trained that this is a winning organization, and nothing less is expected. It’s a mindset, and it rubs off on every player. No shortcuts. Do whatever you need to do to be ready for the next level.”

“He Was Raised Right”

Redbirds pitching coach Bryan Eversgerd was raving about Michael Wacha before the big righty threw his first Triple-A pitch, and it really didn’t have much to do with his arm. “You can tell he was raised right,” said Eversgerd in early April. “He’s got his head on straight. So mature, great in the clubhouse.”

Drafted by the Cardinals in the first round of the 2012 draft after a stellar college career at Texas A&M, Wacha caught the parent club’s attention this spring when he did not allow an earned run in 11 spring-training innings. He was leading the Pacific Coast League with an ERA of 2.05 (nine starts) on May 30th when he was summoned to St. Louis to fill the rotation spot vacated when Gast was sidelined with shoulder discomfort. Wacha somehow met the hyped anticipation in his debut, holding Kansas City to two hits over seven innings. (The Cardinals’ bullpen allowed three runs in the ninth to cost Wacha the win.)

During spring training, one veteran umpire described Wacha’s changeup as the best he’d ever seen. (Disclosure: The umpire was Angel Hernandez, now infamous for having missed a home-run call this season, even after the help of video review.) As impressive as his pitching arsenal may be, Wacha’s maturity and comportment on the mound have caught the most attention throughout the Cardinals system. (Wacha turns 22 on July 1st.)

Warner describes a game earlier this season when Wacha pitched against a PCL team that liked to run early in the count. They had a conversation before the game about the importance of the pitcher holding his stretch position a bit longer to disrupt timing and stall those baserunners. By pausing in his stretch and extending glances, Wacha proceeded to shut down that running game in a Memphis win.

“When you talk to him, he looks you in the eyes,” Warner says. “He’s listening to you. That’s something I always look for in a young player. Most guys, when a game heats up, they’ll start worrying about the situation at hand. But [Wacha] can slow things down. He doesn’t scare at all. It’s one of the keys to this game.”

The Prodigy

The most common comparison is with Vladimir Guerrero, the Hall of Fame-bound outfielder who hit .318 with 449 home runs, 181 stolen bases, and nine All-Star Game appearances over 16 major-league seasons, primarily with the Montreal Expos and Los Angeles Angels. Like Guerrero, Oscar Taveras hails from the Dominican Republic and, like Guerrero, Taveras has displayed — in bold fashion — a batter’s most revered skill: putting the thick part of the bat on the baseball, wherever the ball is pitched. Connect with the ball on a bat’s “sweet spot,” and good things tend to happen.

“Oscar can hit an assortment of pitches,” Warner says, “and they don’t have to be strikes. But he can hit them. At some point, he’ll have to shrink [that strike zone] some. But we don’t want to take away that talent of his: centering pitches that other hitters simply can’t.”

Taveras is the third-ranked prospect in minor-league baseball, according to Baseball America. Since 1990, he’s only the third non-pitcher in the Cardinals system to be ranked so highly (J.D. Drew was number one in 1999, Colby Rasmus number three in 2009). Taveras does Wong one better with three pro championships to his credit (he helped Johnson City to the Appalachian League title in 2010). He was named Texas League Player of the Year for Springfield in 2012, when he led the circuit in batting (.321) while hitting 23 homers and driving in 94 runs (in 124 games). The only thing keeping him out of the St. Louis outfield this season is sensitivity to his young age (Taveras turns 21 on June 19th) and his “free agency clock” (the earlier a player starts his major-league career, the earlier he’ll be eligible for the fat contract of a bidding war between teams).

Taveras recently missed almost a month of action with a lingering right-ankle injury, so his numbers — .315 batting average, four homers, and 20 RBIs — aren’t what Cardinals fans might have expected. No matter. As so many young players have shown after recent stints (long or short) at AutoZone Park, it’s the numbers produced with two birds on their jersey that will be long remembered.