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Out of the Blue

The Memphis Grizzlies will catch you, the NBA — and maybe even themselves — off guard in 2018-19. If the team can stay healthy, Marc Gasol and Mike Conley will enjoy a supporting cast that’s the best fit for their talents they’ve ever had — and one that’s ideal for the pace-and-space era.

You heard it here first: Assuming the Grizzlies avoid the kinds of extraordinary injury issues that plagued the past two seasons, they will make the playoffs. If the Grizzlies are healthy in the playoffs, this season’s iteration of the team will be well-suited to upset any of the NBA’s current elite, so yes … they could win it all.

Joe Murphy/NBAE

Mike Conely and Marc Gasol

Memphis hasn’t seen Marc Gasol and Mike Conley play a meaningful stretch of games since Tony Allen and Zach Randolph’s departure fundamentally reshaped the landscape of the court by adding spacing and broadening lanes to the rim. Conley was playing the best offensive basketball of his career in the season before last year’s injury-wash. Marc Gasol started shooting threes just two seasons ago, and the Grizzlies have not been able to utilize this aspect of his game while paired with Conley at his best for any length of time.  

In his 2017-18 League Pass Watchability rankings, analyst Zach Lowe said, “Gasol and Conley work the most subtly gorgeous two-man game in the league — a bob-and-weave, give-and-go symphony only possible when two genius players compile a half-decade of shared knowledge.” Lowe came to this assessment when Conley and Gasol played on a team that routinely offered the league’s worst spacing. This unparallelled two-man game will fuel many wins if it’s operating on a team that can space the floor, knock down open threes, and widen driving lanes to the rim.

The return of the Conley/Gasol two-man game, and the fate of the “win now” Grizzlies, mainly rests in Conley’s hands. His value can’t be overstated for Memphis: He’s an elite NBA point guard who can carry the team with his scoring and facilitate the offense as a floor general. The Grizzlies have no replacement for what Conley brings to the team, and they will not contend if he can’t play or if he’s seriously limited. Speaking of which, there’s a frightening stat that shows guards under a certain height experience a tremendous statistical drop off after a certain age, and Conley is a candidate to fit that pattern.

On his fantastic Patreon page, writer Matt Hrdlicka calculated a list of guards 6’3″ or under, age 29 or older, who were as good as Conley was in 2016-17. The list is only five people long, including Conley, and features Chris Paul, 2016-17 Kyle Lowry, and Chauncey Billups and Steve Nash. The majority of smaller guards not on this list experienced drop-offs in explosiveness and quickness, two things Conley will need in order to get to the rim, set up his teammates, and play at a level where it’s still reasonable for the Grizzlies to win.

Conley’s time in the league and the energy he’s had to expend for the Grizzlies to win stands out on Hrdlicka’s list, so the odds — and time — wouldn’t appear to be on Conley’s side. Which is to say, it may be now or never for these Grizzlies. The hope is that a healthier team, and new ball-handling and play-making personnel, will alleviate Conley’s burden and prolong his ability to play in the league. Speaking of new guys …

Joe Murphy/NBAE

Kyle Anderson

Kyle Anderson may end up being the biggest Grizzlies non-draft acquisition since Zach Randolph. Like Randolph, he’s contractually locked in to spend his prime years with Memphis. Anderson likely won’t have the same cultural impact as ZBo — nor the potent, ride-that-horse type of scoring, but he will be able to defend multiple positions against the best teams in the NBA, take over some ball-handling and facilitation responsibilities, and stick around for a while.

Anderson probably won’t be awarded accolades like Tony Allen got as the league’s best one-on-one defender, but he will be a better and more versatile overall team defender. It’s a role that’s better suited for combatting the pace-and-space Curry-Thompson-Durants and CP3-Harden team-ball that now dominates the league instead.

Plus, unlike Allen, who was often a liability on offense, Anderson can keep the offense running. Also, with Anderson potentially in the starting lineup, Conley won’t have to hit the gas as often, and can play off the ball. I can’t wait to see how Anderson looks in an expanded role.

Joe Murphy/NBAE

Chandler Parsons

Another development this season that may take many by surprise is Chandler Parsons. Ever since the ill-considered #Chancun Instagram, we’ve grown accustomed to Parsons maintaining a relatively clean PR presence. He’s now sharing Instagram videos of innovative workouts and gym shootarounds. But he kicked things up a notch this year by writing a “letter to Memphis” in the Players’ Tribune. Chandler basically tried to bury the hatchet with frustrated Grizzlies fans and detailed the impressive efforts he’s made to rehab his body. He says he woke up early and spent most of his days rehabbing and fortifying his body with a litany of exercises. He flew to Germany so doctors could inject his knees with enormous needles, using the same treatment that revived Eric Gordon’s career. Parsons certainly makes the case that this year will be different, and if training camp and preseason have been any indication, he might be telling the truth. He’s running the court well, knocking down threes, and even played both nights in a pre-season back-to-back.

Parsons wants to prove that he still has it, and he appears to be on track to becoming a reliable wing that can provide scoring and playmaking off the bench. If his health and ability return to near what the Grizzlies signed him to be, the Grizzlies could start either Parsons or Anderson, depending on the defense and shooting necessitated by the opponent. So, Kyle Anderson may be the biggest acquisition since Zbo … unless it’s year-three Chandler Parsons pulling an Eric Gordon. If that’s the case, look for Conley and Gasol’s efficiency and production to spike in ways not unlike the success seen by other stars around the league who are teaming up in threes and fours.

The Grizzlies also appear to be on the verge of starting their best shooting guard since Courtney Lee. Garrett Temple, the likely starter, is a reliable veteran and a classic 3-and-D player. He will also help the Grizzlies reclaim their strong defensive identity.

Don’t sleep on Wayne Selden, though. He’s another player that could catch people off guard this season. Analysts pinned him for a potential big breakout season at the beginning of last year, but he was sidelined due to the same quad-injury that plagued Kawhi Leonard. Selden’s sample size from when he was healthy with the Grizzlies is tiny, but he shot very well from three and packed a lot of athleticism and rim-attacking ability into the two spot. It’s another small sample size, but Selden thrived when he was given the opportunity in a preseason game against the Pacers, scoring 16 points and dishing nine assists in 27 minutes of play. Selden could provide more of a scoring punch in the starting lineup, or serve as a backup point guard behind Conley.

Having options for backup point guard is another overlooked development that will make this team more successful than most have predicted this season. The Marc & Mike Grizzlies have frequently suffered from not having a backup primary ball-handler that can facilitate the offense. By adding a veteran backup point guard like Shelvin Mack, and ball-handlers like Kyle Anderson, Conley won’t have to shoulder the floor general burden alone.

JaMychal Green is another player who could surprise people with his effort and production this season. It’ll be a contract year for the power forward, and he should see better looks more often from deep with the makeup and health of this year’s roster. Green’s steady ability to defend the four and space the floor gives rookie Jaren Jackson Jr. plenty of time to adapt to the NBA, which is nice, because overextended young big men tend to get injured.

Joe Murphy/NBAE

Jaren Jackson Jr.

Speaking of Jaren Jackson Jr., I think it’s possible he may go down as the best player to ever wear a Grizzlies uniform. His youth, size, quickness, ability to guard the perimeter, block rate, 3-point percentage, and FT percentage made Jackson’s ceiling — and unicorn potential — stand out in the recent draft class. The Commercial Appeal‘s Peter Edmiston, one of my favorite number-crunching analysts covering the Grizzlies, had Luka Doncic and Jaren Jackson Jr. on a tier far above everyone else, and I think he’ll end up being right in his assessment.

Jackson can defend the perimeter, protect the rim, space the floor, hit threes, and sink free throws. Many big men aren’t able to remain on the court late in games due to poor free throw shooting and difficulty guarding the perimeter. Jackson will have no such issues. But Grizzlies fans will need to be patient with Jackson, as foul problems should be expected for a 19-year-old rookie big man. If Jackson had one serious knock on his NBA potential going into the draft, it was his ability to score in the paint and the post, but that aspect of his game has steadily improved with each game he’s played. Don’t forget to thank the tanking gods for Triple-J.

One of the most difficult reads an NBA team’s front office and head coach have to make is whether their team should try to win now or rebuild for the future. How much of your future are you willing to compromise to try to win at this moment? Should the rotation lean on its stars and veterans if mid-level playoff success is not a forgone conclusion? How do you walk the line between winning games and developing players further down the bench so your team becomes deeper and ultimately better equipped to compete in the playoffs?

The call was easy to make last season. With Conley going down early, Parsons not healthy for most of the season, and Gasol being the only star besides Tyreke Evans on a team with no consistency or identity, it was clear that the season was a wash.

To anti-tankers: I say Jaren Jackson Jr. is better than losing in the first round of the playoffs and getting some broke-ass project like Michael Porter Jr.

Injuries have kept the Grizzlies from finding and refining their next identity. Memphis has been wandering in the wilderness, to an extent, ever since Grit ‘n Grind reached the true end of its road in a four-game sweep by the Spurs in the 2013 Western Conference Finals.

The Grizzlies finally moved on from that anachronistic blueprint in 2017, when they shipped off ZBo and TA, but the team had barely scratched the surface of its new identity last year (beating the Warriors and Rockets in the first couple weeks of the season) before Conley went down.

The Grizzlies were lauded for having some of the best locker-room chemistry in the league before falling on hard times. And in that nadir season, what was the worst thing that happened? Marc Gasol got fussy? That pales in comparison to the days of punching teammates in the face over gambling debts while on the team plane, or the well-documented feuds that have plagued other teams in the league. Another bonus from last year’s disastrous tank-a-thon season was Dillon Brooks, who grew into a solid rotation player and gives the team yet another weapon.

The Grizzlies have a mature locker room that isn’t driven by ego, and additions such as Garrett Temple and Anderson can only fortify the status quo. The Grizzlies team chemistry up and down the roster should prove to be an advantage as new players gel and find their roles.

On the Grizzlies’ Media Day, Conley said he and Gasol had signed their recent contracts with the intention of retiring as Grizzlies. When pressed about his plans in the year before his player option, Gasol was less forthcoming, saying that it was hard for him to make guarantees when he didn’t know what the future would look like.

It would’ve been nice if he’d given a more comforting response, but I think Gasol appreciates better than most how much the unknown governs the game — and players’ careers. The Grizzlies could get bitten by the injury bug again, and Gasol might find himself wanting to join another team to contend for a title while he still has gas left in the tank.

In a worst-case scenario, this could be Conley and Gasol’s last season playing together in Memphis. But it could also be a beginning that brings a return of high-level playoff action to FedExForum. I think most of the litany of unknowns going into the season will reveal themselves as unexpected positives. And I believe that you should be more excited for NBA basketball in Memphis than ever before.

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From My Seat Sports

2018-19 Memphis Grizzlies: 5 Predictions

Here’s a prediction for the most predictable league in American sports, and you can consider this guaranteed: The Golden State Warriors will not face LeBron James in the 2019 NBA Finals. (See if Vegas will give you odds.) With King James now a member of the Los Angeles Lakers, he will have to beat the mighty Warriors in the Western Conference playoffs merely to reach his ninth straight Finals. Is James enough to transform a 35-47 team — a franchise that hasn’t reached the postseason since 2013 — into a title contender? Let’s put it this way: James is the only player who might perform such, ahem, magic in L.A.

As the Grizzlies prepare to tip off their 18th season in Memphis (Wednesday night at Indiana), here are five more predictions as 29 NBA teams try to prevent a third-straight Bay Area championship parade.

Mike Conley will make things right for Memphis.
What exactly right means remains to be determined. But Conley’s absence last season significantly compounded the departures of Zach Randolph and Tony Allen. Limited to 12 games by an injury to his left foot that required surgery, Conley watched with the rest of us as Tyreke Evans, JaMychal Green, and longtime running mate Marc Gasol did what they could to make a 22-win season feel competitive. But when a rookie finishes second on your team in minutes played (as Dillon Brooks did last season), playoff basketball is rarely in the conversation. Considering his size, Conley has been remarkably durable over his NBA career, last season being the first of 11 in which he played fewer than 50 games. He turned 31 last week and is now in the third year of that mega-deal he signed in 2016 paying him $30 million annually. Conley won’t play 82 games, but he’ll play more than 50. It’ll be enough to feel like “our Griz” are back.

Jaren Jackson will be more popular than Chandler Parsons.
I like the idea of an athletic four — we once called them “power forwards” — running the floor with Conley, helping Gasol on the defensive end, and flushing offensive rebounds. Memphis chose Jackson with the fourth pick in June’s draft for these purposes. Can he become the kind of player who sells tickets, a team “personality” we tend to crave in the Bluff City? Let’s give the kid some time. (He’s 19 years old, three years younger than Memphis Tiger point guard Jeremiah Martin.) But he’ll lap the veteran Parsons in popularity by Christmas while earning a fourth of the salary.


Kyle Anderson and Garrett Temple won’t overwhelm anyone. But they won’t underwhelm, either.
Anderson started 67 games for the San Antonio Spurs last season. Consider me sold on those credentials alone. Temple averaged 8.4 points and 2.3 rebounds as a part-time starter for Sacramento last season. He’s starting his 10th NBA season but has reached the playoffs only three times (with the Spurs and Washington Wizards). These are rotation players for the Grizzlies, “glue guys” in college terms. They won’t move the needle when it comes to highlight clips, but they’re the kind of players who tend to deliver what’s expected. And that’s needed at FedExForum.
Larry Kuzniewski

Marc Gasol


Marc Gasol will finish the season atop the Grizzlies’ leaderboard in games played, points, and rebounds.

With images of a pudgy Gasol learning the game at Lausanne, Big Spain’s 11th NBA season has me dodging AARP flyers. He’s already the Grizzlies’ career leader in scoring (10,850 points), trails Conley by just two games (716), and needs 126 rebounds to pass Zach Randolph atop the rebounding chart. He’s become an active franchise icon, something very few NBA teams can claim. Like Conley, he stuck around when other franchises may have offered clearer paths to a championship. He’ll be here at least one more season and will be central to any playoff aspirations in the Memphis locker room.

The Grizzlies will be among the NBA’s most improved teams, but will still miss the playoffs.
The Western Conference was stacked before the century’s best player immigrated from the East. And James joined a Laker team that didn’t qualify for last year’s playoffs. That’s at least nine teams competing for eight spots before Memphis enters the conversation. Let’s say the Grizzlies improve by 15 games (not ridiculous considering the absence of Conley a year ago and his return this season). Those 37 wins would have been 10 games short of a playoff berth last season. There are simply too many teams the Grizzlies must catch and pass to rejoin the Western Conference elite. If the Griz improved by 20 wins, where would 42-40 leave them? Lots to hope for in the season ahead — starting with a ban on four-letter words that start with “t” and end with “k” — but within the sobering context of a heavy Western Conference that got heavier over the summer.

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Beyond the Arc Sports

Watanabe, Conley, Gasol, Jackson Speak Out at Grizzlies Media Day

Memphis inched closer to the return of Grizzlies basketball with media day on Monday. There were a couple of themes that ran throughout, including youth meshing with veteran leadership in the locker room, and the international media’s infatuation with Japanese basketball star and two-way signee Yuta Watanabe. Here are some major takeaways (both basketball-related and not) from some key players.

Dillon Brooks seemed relaxed and focused. He cracked a couple good jokes while saying everything you’d want to hear from a dynamic young guard looking to take the next step as a player.

Watanabe, Conley, Gasol, Jackson Speak Out at Grizzlies Media Day (4)

Asked about Marc and Mike getting older, Dillon Brooks said the Grizzlies have a lot of youth. “It’s like when grandma and grandpa get a new grandbaby: it gives them new life.” Despite literally calling them grandparents, Brooks expressed gratitude for Conley and Gasol. From Gasol getting drafted by the Lakers and traded to Memphis, and how he’s changed his bod, to Mike Conley getting drafted 4th overall and experiencing a slow start to his career (where often he’d only play in home games), Dillon said they’ve been like mentors, sharing the wisdom they’ve gained from their adversities.

Jaren Jackson Jr. opened his inaugural media day appearance by saying he’s excited for the new Young Thug album, and that casual ebullience characterized much of his interview and presence. When asked about his first post-contract luxury purchase, Jaren answered without hesitation: “Scorpion,” by Drake. He followed that up by saying he’s actually going to take it easy on luxury purchases.
Matt Preston

One thing that frequently bothers me in the NBA world is the lack of representation for Memphis in the league’s TV promos, League Pass commercials, etc. I know Memphis is a small market, but the Grizzlies just drafted a theoretical unicorn with the fourth pick, and he had an amazing Summer League outing. So why is Jaren Jackson conspicuously absent from promos that tease the incoming rookie class? When I asked Jaren about this, he was at a loss for words, and said he doesn’t pay much attention to sports on TV, lauding Netflix instead.

Watanabe, Conley, Gasol, Jackson Speak Out at Grizzlies Media Day (3)

I asked Jackson what he’s currently into on Netflix, and that kick started a lengthy aside about Ozark, and trying to remember a particular episode with another reporter. In some small way, I feel partly responsible for 40 percent of JJJ’s appearance being Ozark-related, but it was a fun glimpse into Jackson’s easygoing and easy-to-talk-to personality. But don’t let Jackson’s amiable spirit mislead you.

Leading up to training camp, Jackson says he’s focused on conditioning, improving his shot, and being aggressive and explosive. While he amicably interrupted a couple other player interviews to bust chops or crack a joke, you get the sense that he’s an open, positive, and constructive communicator, and the Grizzlies hope to see that translate into being a vocal leader and defender on the court. For what it’s worth, Conley said Jackson’s already a pretty good leader in his appearance. Speaking of…

Matt Preston

Conley appeared to be in good spirits, and there’s plenty of positive buzz about his health. Responding to questions about the Grizzlies’ dismal year last season, Conley said “last year was an anomaly,” remarking on the all the consecutive playoff appearances in years prior. Conley also talked about helping younger players in the locker room, giving them advice on staying out of trouble, and the importance of nutrition and adequate sleep

Gasol spent a decent amount of his time fielding questions about saving lives and helping refugees stranded in the Mediterranean Sea. He said his love for his young daughter motivated him to get involved with helping refugee children in the off-season, and truly seems to have experienced something that was bigger than basketball and bigger than himself. Gasol said he wants to sit down with someone in the media and have a longer conversation about the issue.
Matt Preston

Gasol also mentioned he’s heard the criticism that he’s too harsh on his teammates when they make mistakes, and plans to adjust his leadership to be more supportive in that regard. Just don’t ask him to be even slightly okay with lapses on defense.

Matt Preston

Kyle Anderson said he’s ready to take on more pressure and responsibility in Memphis, and showed the old grit-n-grind Grizzlies a lot of love and respect (having played against Memphis as a San Antonio Spur). He believes that playing with Pau taught him how to move off the ball, and prepared him to play with Marc. Maybe they’ll have quick chemistry?

Matt Preston

On an unsurprising note, Garrett Temple confirmed that he found out about his move to Memphis from NBA writer Adrian Wojnarowski, with his agent calling to confirm minutes afterward. Temple said he’s excited to join a team that wants to win now, and expects the Grizzlies to make the playoffs. Temple came across every bit the well-composed veteran, which is interesting, because his locker borders Jackson’s. “Most of the time he’s smiling and laughing and telling us about rappers he likes,” Temple said of Jackson.

Matt Preston

Monday was JB Bickerstaff’s first Grizzlies media day as head coach, and he was dialed-in heading into his first training camp. He pushed back harder than anyone at notions of Gasol and Conley beginning their decline. It’ll be interesting to see how this team looks out of the gate and into the mid-season, especially if the Grizzlies manage to avoid the Injury Vortex.

Watanabe, Conley, Gasol, Jackson Speak Out at Grizzlies Media Day (2)

And finally, the one, the only, Yuta Watanabe. His presence was felt long before he even entered the room. It felt like half the media present at media day were reporters from Japan, solely there because of the 6’9″ international sensation. His name bled into almost every player interview, as the international reporters asked everyone on the team about their thoughts on Watanabe.
Watanabe went out of his way to thank his family and friends for their support. One of his favorite players to watch growing up was Shaq, he said, and while he hasn’t had any BBQ in Memphis, he has been to Sekisui.

Watanabe, Conley, Gasol, Jackson Speak Out at Grizzlies Media Day

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Cover Feature News

The Way Forward: Grizzlies Start a New Era

Nostalgia is a subtle nihilism. It denies the possibility that anything will ever be better than it was in the past and robs us of the ability to see what’s in front of us because we’re always comparing what is with what we remember.

This season, there’s no way for the Memphis Grizzlies to avoid that trap.

With Zach Randolph and Tony Allen gone and suiting up for other teams, you can’t deny that an era has ended and a new one has begun. The “Core Four” era has been, without question, the most successful in the history of the franchise — and the period in which the team’s fanbase finally blossomed into something bigger than a bunch of die-hards hoping the next Three Year Plan will finally be the one that works. The things that happened between the 2010-11 and 2016-17 seasons will not soon be forgotten.

The catch, of course, is that all eras end. Players age out of their primes, injuries derail plans, wild swings of fate move the ground out from under even the best-laid foundations. It was inevitable that eventually the most successful group of players in the team’s history would no longer be together in Beale Street Blue and that there’d be a season in which the Grizzlies first had to face that reality and build something for the future.

This is that season.

The Core Four is gone, and the Grizzlies — still helmed by Mike Conley and Marc Gasol and in the second year of head coach David Fizdale’s tenure — have to figure out what to do next. But regardless of what happens, will it hold up when compared to the glory days that just passed? Will the Grizzlies be able to succeed or fail on their own terms this season, or will they be judged harshly when they fall short of fan expectations because they can’t replicate the glory of the Grit & Grind Days? That’s the question that will be answered over the next 82 games. What will the 2017-18 Grizzlies be, and will that be enough?

Joe Murphy (NBAE/Getty Images)

Chandler Parsons

The Chandler Parsons Project

As the Grizzlies look to reinvent themselves around Conley and Gasol, all eyes will be on the Grizzlies’ big $94M free agent signing from last summer, forward Chandler Parsons. After trying to rush back from a knee injury and then failing to ever reach playing shape, to say Parsons’ 2016-17 was a disappointment would be like saying the Titanic didn’t have a great maiden voyage. The hope is that this year, he’ll be able to contribute in some sort of meaningful way. That way didn’t make itself apparent during the preseason, and given how much Fizdale has talked about using Parsons as a power forward, it seems like his role this season (at least at first) will be coming off the bench to play that position in smaller, two-point-guard lineups.

Obviously, no one thinks that paying $23M per year to the eighth man in the rotation is a successful outcome for Parsons, but at this point, the money is spent, so as long as he can contribute, he’ll play. But Fizdale has made clear that one thing won’t happen: the mandated 20 minutes of playing time while Parsons tried to rehab last season, which frustrated everyone and accomplished nothing.

Parsons was signed to be a playmaker, a scorer with the starting unit that the Grizzlies never had in the Core Four days (apologies to late-period Tayshaun Prince and to the Platonic ideal of whatever people see in Jeff Green). It’s clear heading into this season that the 2015 Chandler Parsons is never, ever coming back, so now the challenge is to figure out a way to get something out of him. If he can play above replacement level, I’ll call it a “win” (and break out the Wild Turkey when it’s time to look at the salary cap numbers). But he won’t be the player they signed him to be — not this year, not ever again.

Joe Murphy (NBAE/Getty Images)

Tyreke Evans

On a Wing and a Prayer

Don’t let the Parsons debacle cause you to give up hope, though, because there is something positive brewing in the wing positions: a depth that the Grizzlies have not had in recent years. The offseason additions of Tyreke Evans and Ben McLemore helped to shore up a rotation already starting to come into its own with James Ennis’ decent season (I won’t call it a “breakout,” really, but it was solid) and the emergence of Wayne Selden as a potential starter during last season’s ill-fated San Antonio playoff series. McLemore won’t be ready to play for a while yet — he broke his foot this summer in a pickup game, just part of the Grizzlies’ ongoing multi-season injury curse — and I wasn’t very excited about his addition on its own, but coupled with Evans, it’s a notable upgrade from the days of Tayshaun Prince and Austin Daye (or even Jeff Green and Matt Barnes, or the 2015 “can’t run” version of Vince Carter). Add the near-miraculous return of Mario Chalmers to the mix as another point guard, and you have a team poised to play smaller and faster with much greater skill at the positions needed to do so.

The operating premise here is that even though none of these guys is particularly a star on his own — Evans is probably the closest thing, but he’s been too inconsistent and injury-prone to ever earn the title — together, as a unit, they’re better top-to-bottom than anything the Grizzlies have been able to put on the court in a while. Since Parsons isn’t going to be the small forward of the Grizzlies’ dreams, Plan B will have to become Plan A. It’s a small victory, then, that there are so many decent-to-good role players ready to step in. For a team that has been so hard up for offensive production the last few seasons, the sudden presence of several versatile (if imperfect) players on the perimeter will feel like a sudden breath of fresh air, even considering the big piece (that is, Parsons) that will forever be missing.

Joe Murphy (NBAE/Getty Images)

JaMychal Green

The Young and The Restless

On Monday, the Grizzlies cut their roster down to the 15 required for opening night, saying farewell to 2016 first-round pick Wade Baldwin IV and Serbian forward Rade Zagorac. Baldwin is a high-upside player who doesn’t seem to be developing toward that upside, and Zagorac was a young Euro player who didn’t seem to be able to make the leap to the faster, more athletic NBA game. But even though the ranks have thinned, the Grizzlies will still be relying on young guys to step up and produce.

Some of these (Andrew Harrison and Wayne Selden, especially) stepped up last year. Others (thinking specifically of Dillon Brooks, who has looked very good in Summer League and in preseason action) are still mostly unknown quantities. But regardless, if the Grizzlies are going to be any good this year, it will take a burgeoning of player development the likes of which we haven’t seen since the days when O.J. Mayo was scoring 30 points a night for Marc Iavaroni.

What the Grizzlies are doing, really, is rebuilding in place around Mike Conley and Marc Gasol. The plan was to have a Big Three that included Parsons, but that plan’s no longer workable. That means the process of retooling is more important, because the young players have to be able to contribute more than was previously expected but also need to be able to do so on a much shorter timetable. It’s not the position the Grizzlies thought they’d be in when they signed Conley and Gasol to 5-year max deals, but they’re determined to make the most of it while they can.

Joe Murphy (NBAE/Getty Images)

(left to right) J.B. Bickerstaff, Dave Fizdale, Keith Smart

The West

It’s worth considering what the best-case scenario would be for this season’s team before talking about what’s the most likely outcome.

The top tiers of the Western Conference continue to become cartoonishly overpowered. Houston added Chris Paul over the summer. The Oklahoma City Thunder added Paul George and Carmelo Anthony to supplement Russell Westbrook. The Warriors will be the same as they were last year. The Spurs will continue to ride Kawhi Leonard’s dominance.

And while the top teams will all be the same or better, there’s a new crop of younger teams looking to break into the postseason for the first time. Denver will be strong this year. Minnesota added Jimmy Butler to a team that was already brimming with young talent. Both teams look to make the leap this year.

Where does that leave the Grizzlies? They won’t be in the top tier. They probably won’t be in the second tier of teams that could conceivably make it to the NBA Finals if they catch the right breaks or a top team suffers an injury. In this season of transition, they’re looking to make the playoffs and develop what they can with an eye toward maximizing the next two years. That’s not to say this year is a throwaway — just that it’s unreasonable to expect a team with this many question marks (even one that still features Conley and Gasol in their primes) to be much better than a low-end playoff team.

Ultimately, the teams around the Grizzlies have (mostly) gotten better, while the Grizzlies rode the same venerated core for a long time, and now the Grizzlies are reloading while their peers are leveling up. That’s not an indictment of the Grizzlies — it seems unlikely that Carmelo Anthony would have come to Memphis, for example — but it does make the failure of the Parsons signing that much more real. The Grizzlies could’ve had that, too. They tried, and instead they’re scrambling to develop a rotation and a style of play.

Conclusions

So what’s the ceiling for this year’s Grizzlies team? How good can they be, given the challenges in front of them? I think an optimistic projection would put them somewhere around 44 wins, which I figure might be good enough to make the eight playoff spot in the West. They’re in a group of teams (also including the L.A. Clippers, the Portland Trail Blazers, and the Utah Jazz) that could all finish around the same place, teams with a lot of uncertainties yet to be ironed out that look decent on paper.

That’s an optimistic projection. One serious injury to Mike Conley or Marc Gasol and things could get away from them in a hurry. They’re deep, but that depth is unproven. They’re tough, but that tenacity hasn’t been tested the way it will be over the course of the upcoming season. They’re faster, more athletic, and younger, but that doesn’t mean they’ll gel out of the gate.

A pessimistic projection gets dark in a hurry. With two big-name players on what are likely the biggest contracts they’ll ever get, if the Grizzlies think the current configuration isn’t going to work, the smartest thing to do may be to trade them for picks and start over. If things are going poorly, you can expect the rumor mill to be churning out reports about Gasol trades left and right, but ultimately I’m not sure the Grizzlies “have” to make that trade the way national conventional wisdom would suggest. It’s the downside of being in this position, though. If it’s January and the team is significantly below .500 for some reason, you will start hearing these rumors. It’s just the way the NBA works, for one thing, but also, it wouldn’t be the craziest move for the Grizzlies to make.

That said, I honestly don’t expect things to come to that. The Grizzlies have been pronounced dead several times over the last five seasons, and they’ve always found a way to over-perform. They’re due for a year where that doesn’t happen, but until it does, it seems safe to bet on their success, at least “success” on the terms of this season. There’s a way forward for the Grizzlies, and they’re only now starting to discover it in the young talent on the roster. The process of finding the next great Griz core could be a long one, but they’ve got no choice but to start that journey.

It’s tempting to compare this season to the seven before it, the best run of success in the history of the franchise. But to live in that (recent) past is to deny that this season can be a success on its own merits — even if that’s admittedly a smaller scale of success than the fanbase is used to. The Grizzlies will not contend for a title this year, but that’s not the interesting thing about them. What we should watch for is whether they learn what they’re going to be next. If you’re not watching for that, if you’re living in the past, you’ll probably be very disappointed.

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From My Seat Sports

Villainy, Thy Name is Spurs

Once, there was Louisville. When Memphis State basketball (as the program was then known) ruled this city’s landscape, the Louisville Cardinals played the role of arch villain. There was a glorious, 10-year stretch (1982-91) in which the Tigers and Cardinals faced each other in the Metro Conference tournament nine times, after having played twice already in the regular season. It was pure hate. Milt Wagner and the McCray brothers against Doom Haynes and Keith Lee, games that served as prelude to deep NCAA tournament runs for each program.

Alas, Louisville remains a Final Four threat annually, now from the most prestigious neighborhood in college basketball, the Atlantic Coast Conference. To say the Memphis program has taken a different direction would be an exercise in sugarcoating. There is no more Tigers-Cardinals rivalry . . . except for the emotion those distant memories stir.

But we now have the NBA. We have the Memphis Grizzlies, embarking on their seventh playoff run in seven years. And we have the San Antonio Spurs. Arch villains by a few measures. These dastardly ballers even wear black.

Do you find the prolonged success of the NFL’s New England Patriots tiring, oppressive in their Tom Brady-driven dominance for the better part of two decades? Well, the Patriots can best be described as the San Antonio Spurs of football. Since Gregg Popovich’s first full season as head coach (1997-98), the Spurs’ lowest winning percentage for a single season is .610. (They went merely 50-32 in 2009-10.) San Antonio has won five NBA titles over the last 20 years, and has won at least 50 games 18 years in a row (including the lockout-shortened 66-game season of 2011-12).

The Spurs lost one of the 10 or 15 greatest players in NBA history before the 2016-17 season (Tim Duncan), and went 61-21, second only to Golden State in the Western Conference. Turns out Duncan is not actually a cyborg; it’s the franchise itself that is machine-built and operated, programmed for the kind of sustained success 29 other NBA franchises consider fantasy talk. They now have their own Gasol brother, Pau appearing in the postseason with his fourth franchise, though toe-to-toe with his kid brother for the first time.

Over their 16 years in Memphis, the Grizzlies have enjoyed exactly four 50-win seasons. They’ve yet to reach the NBA Finals (thanks to the Spurs, who swept Memphis in the 2013 Western Conference finals). In nine previous appearances in the postseason, the Grizzlies have been bounced by San Antonio three times. These are bad dudes who play very good basketball, commanded by a man who — even with five rings — is known (sometimes celebrated) for abrasive brevity with on-air reporters, and resting his stars when he damn well pleases, TV ratings be damned. Patriot coach Bill Belichick bows to Gregg Popovich in the Temple of Arrogance.

Memphis will always have 2011, of course. Shane Battier’s corner jumper beat the Spurs in San Antonio (Game 1) for the first playoff win in Grizzlies history. The underdog (8th seed) proceeded to eliminate the top-seeded Spurs in six games. (The 18-point beat-down of the Spurs in Game 4 remains the loudest crowd I’ve heard at FedExForum.) Memphis has lost all nine of its playoff games against the Spurs since that upset six years ago, perhaps a sign that a Faustian deal was, in fact, struck somewhere along the San Antonio River Walk before Battier’s 2011 heroics.

Villains are good. At least in sports, where the stakes are merely trophies and endorsement deals. Memphis-Louisville may be a thing of the past. Soon enough, the Grizzlies’ “Core Four” (first names only: Mike, Marc, Tony, and Zach) may be a thing of the past. But for a couple of weeks, we’ll see some real animosity on the hardwood. No need for “Memphis vs. Errrbody” when we have the Memphis Grizzlies vs. the San Antonio Spurs.

• Sportswriters track milestones, including — once in a great while — our own. This is the 700th column to be posted under the “From My Seat” banner on this site. When my first column went up (in February 2002), Stubby Clapp was preparing for his fourth season of back-flipping to second base for the Memphis Redbirds and Mike Conley was in the 8th grade. The column has been a happy distraction — for 15 years now — from my regular chores as managing editor for Memphis magazine. I’ve enjoyed hearing from readers — touched, angry, or in-between — over the years, and remain grateful for the loyal, engaged readership the Flyer has cultivated for the better part of three decades. So thanks for reading. And if you’re new to the dance, get on the floor and join the fun.

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Cover Feature News

Grind’s Last Stand

This is not the season the Grizzlies thought they’d have, for better or for worse. In their first year under new head coach David Fizdale, and the first with big free-agent signing Chandler Parsons on the roster, it was expected that they’d have some bumps in the road. A transition to a new era and style of Grizzlies basketball was going to take time, and patience.

Instead, Parsons never really played a meaningful minute, forcing the Grizzlies back into the mode in which they’ve operated since 2010–11, when the “Core Four” of Mike Conley, Marc Gasol, Tony Allen, and Zach Randolph took to the floor for the first time together and beat the top-seeded San Antonio Spurs in six games. There are new wrinkles — Randolph now comes off the bench in place of starter JaMychal Green; Gasol now shoots three-pointers and carries more of the load on offense; Conley, armed with a $150 million max contract, seems to be able to score 30 points at will — but the basics are still there: a reliance on Conley, Randolph, and Gasol for scoring, on Allen and Gasol for defense, and a wing rotation of veterans that’s just barely this side of replacement level. Their continuity is their curse.

In this season of déjà vu, it comes as no surprise that the Grizzlies are now set to face the Spurs in the first round for the second year in a row and for the fourth time in seven postseasons. The Spurs are different now, led by Kawhi Leonard and LaMarcus Aldridge, but they’re still “The Spurs,” a basketball leviathan, and it’s unclear whether they’re set to struggle with the Grizzlies as they did in the regular season (the two teams split the season series) or whether they’re just waiting for the right moment to unleash the same sort of unbeatable game plan they’ve deployed against the Griz in years past.

Photographs by Larry Kuzniewski

Mike Conley

The Good News

There are reasons to believe that things could go the Grizzlies’ way this postseason. For one, for the first time, they’ve prioritized rest and recovery for their most important players. Neither Conley nor Gasol even played in the 2016 series. Conley broke his back earlier in the season, and Gasol recently missed time with a sprained foot, but there’s no lingering, “just gotta play through it” injury as was the case in 2015, and no one is fresh off a long layoff, as was the case in 2014 when Gasol was still very limited by an MCL sprain. This is truly the first year since 2013 that the Grizzlies’ “Big Three” of Conley/Randolph/Gasol are all healthy. (Nevermind Parsons in this equation; for our purposes he might as well not be on the team.)

Marc Gasol

The Grizzlies are a better offensive team this year, when shots are falling. Gasol’s three-point shooting, combined with bigger offensive output from Conley and Vince Carter and newcomer shooter Troy Daniels, mean they’re a little more versatile, even though for the season they’re really no better or worse than any other year of the Grit & Grind era.

The other good news is that it’s not a given that the Spurs have a higher gear to go. They’ve been a bit of a mess this year at times, and Tony Parker has been noticeably hobbled by age for the first time. While Leonard still has the ability to wreak havoc on the Grizzlies on both ends of the floor, the Spurs’ other primary weapon is Aldridge, who Gasol, Randolph, and Green can probably defend well. It’s a better matchup than it appears.

Zach Randolph

The Bad News

None of that means anything if the Grizzlies’ defense, which hasn’t been what it used to be, can’t handle the Spurs’ ball movement. As has been the case since 2011, the Grizzlies are vulnerable to teams that shoot well from outside, and they’ve never ironed out the wrinkles in Fizdale’s new scheme that would let them prevent some of those problems.

Allen, let it be said, has not been the consistent force on defense that he’s been in years past, gambling for steals more often and failing to deny the ball to his man quite as much. That in itself isn’t surprising; Allen’s defensive gifts have always relied on his ability to get through screens and to move laterally at unreal speeds, and, as he ages, there’s no way to avoid the loss of speed over time. But with Gasol not quite as “there” defensively (especially after the All-Star break), Allen’s gambles leave the Grizzlies far more susceptible to the weak-side three-pointer than they should be. And Allen’s still the best perimeter defender on the team. Guys like James Ennis, Carter, and Andrew Harrison just aren’t on that level, and sharpshooter Troy Daniels is such a poor defender that it cost him minutes at points this year.

Jamychal Green

The other bad news is that without Parsons in the mix on offense, the Grizzlies still depend so much on action inside the paint that the Spurs could probably pack the lane with four guys on every possession, especially when Randolph is on the court. Since he bullied Antonio McDyess into retirement in 2011, the Spurs have always had an answer for Randolph, and even in their slightly diminished state — bringing Pau Gasol and David Lee off the bench—I don’t see any real reason to think Randolph has an advantage over the Spurs’ bigs that he didn’t have previously.

Last Stand?

Indeed, that’s what I said. The Grizzlies have a lot of decisions to make this summer, and it’s very possible that next year’s team could be different. For one, with next year’s salary cap projections falling to around $100 million, they don’t have a lot of room to make moves this offseason. Green is a restricted free agent and will almost certainly draw a $10M/year offer sheet from some other team that the Griz will then have the option to match. Randolph and Allen are both free agents this summer. Randolph’s offensive output has been invaluable to the second unit this year — he’s been a strong candidate for Sixth Man of the Year — but Allen’s defense and rebounding have kept the Grizzlies alive at times (though they’ve also been admittedly subpar at others).

The problem with putting things on a credit card is that eventually the bill comes due. The Grizzlies have a crop of young players; they have three guys (Conley, Gasol, and Parsons) on max deals; and they have some veterans whose time may have come (Randolph, Allen, and Carter). With the space they have left, how much sense does it make for them to run it back yet another time? How content are they with being a perennial 6th or 7th seed? At what point does the wave of the last few seasons inevitably crash on the beach?

It could be this summer. The raw truth is that Conley and Gasol will never be more valuable as trade assets. How the Spurs series (and thus the rest of the Grizzlies’ postseason, if there’s going to be a “rest”) goes will probably determine the conversations happening inside the organization this summer. Are they confident that Parsons will recover enough to be a meaningful contributor from opening night next year? Do they think they can shore up the wing rotation and run it back one more year even if he can’t? Those are all questions that will start to be asked whenever the season inevitably ends. If the Grizzlies can stave off that end a little longer, they may be able to defer those payments another year. If they’re handled by the Spurs without offering up much resistance, it may be time to start asking the tough questions now, before time and the relentless improvement of the rest of the Western Conference force the issue.

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From My Seat Sports

Memphis Sports Resolutions for 2017

Let’s make 2017 the right kind of year. A few suggested goals for local sports figures:

• Dedric Lawson — Ten assists (or blocks) in a game.
In the long, rich history of Memphis Tiger basketball, exactly two players have achieved a triple double: Penny Hardaway (twice) and Antonio Anderson. The Tigers’ sophomore star has already come within three assists of the feat (on December 13th) and on another occasion, within two blocked shots (on December 10th). The points and rebounds will come in metronomic regularity. If Lawson can achieve the right kind of outburst in passing or blocking the basketball, he’ll turn an exclusive Memphis duo into a trio.

• Zach Randolph — Win the NBA’s Sixth Man Award.
Z-Bo graciously accepted his new role — off the Memphis Grizzlies’ bench — when new coach David Fizdale announced a significant rotation adjustment in the preseason. Why not turn the new supporting role into a major award? Through Monday, Randolph has averaged 13.3 points and 7.7 rebounds. When he missed seven games after his mother’s death in late November, the Griz went 4-3, each of the wins by less than five points, each of the losses by at least nine. The 35-year-old remains integral to the Grizzlies’ big-picture ambitions. A trophy presentation at FedExForum during the playoffs would be a career highlight.

• Anthony Miller — Make first-team All-America.
After catching 95 passes for 1,434 yards and 14 touchdowns in 2016 — all new Memphis records — the Tigers’ junior wide receiver didn’t so much as make first team all-conference. In the American Athletic Conference. It’s unlikely Miller would be taken in the first two rounds of this year’s NFL draft. So why not rejoin forces with quarterback Riley Ferguson, do to the Tiger pass-catching record book what DeAngelo Williams did to the rushing charts, and gain some overdue accolades?

• Stubby Clapp — Make Redbird fans stop talking about backflips.
When a fan favorite returns, the honeymoon becomes saturated with memories of a player’s achievements during his initial tenure. For the new Redbirds manager, this means countless photos and video clips of a second baseman going heels up as he takes the field. Assuming his first managerial gig above the Class A level, Clapp will be focusing more on replicating the achievements of his 2000 Redbirds team, a club that won the Pacific Coast League championship in AutoZone Park’s inaugural season. Winning baseball games — to say nothing of developing prospects — has little to do with pregame acrobatics. It will be fun to see a man called Stubby take baseball seriously (he always has) and assume a leadership role in the St. Louis farm system.

• Tubby Smith — Make it six for six.
Smith would become the first man to coach six teams to the NCAA tournament if he can guide Memphis to the Big Dance. Why not this year? The Tigers have three wins over teams from Power Five conferences (two more than they had, combined, the last two seasons), but must earn tournament consideration in league play. The guess here is that January and February will be the veteran coach’s wheelhouse, when player roles come into focus and the rhythm of a two-games-per-week campaign toward the postseason feels rather familiar. Who knows if Dedric Lawson will be back for a third college season? His coach should make the most of a prime asset.

• Mike Conley — Establish the Grizzlies’ 700 club.
The Grizzlies somehow won six straight games with their $30-million point guard sidelined by broken bones in his back. Don’t be fooled. Memphis needs Conley like Conley needs a healthy back. He’s 39 games from becoming the first Grizzly to play in 700 regular-season games. If he reaches the milestone this season, count on Memphis extending its playoff streak to seven years. And count one more reason no future Memphis player will wear the number 11.

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From My Seat Sports

2016: Good for One Thing

It will be easy to say goodbye to 2016. From the political (Brexit) to the unspeakable (mass murder in Orlando), it has been a year in which our differences — our divisions — have been displayed in dramatic, all too often violent conflicts around the globe. Bloodshed continues in Iraq and Syria, North Korea seems ready to burst with its maniacal leadership (and nuclear weaponry), and here stateside, we Americans elected a president half the population considers unfit to run a reputable business, let alone lead the free world. Perhaps most threatening of all, 2016 is the year fake news — Oxymoron of the Century — became a thing. Trust has become the most valuable human commodity this side of love.

But the year in sports. My goodness, the year we’ve had in sports.

Had the Cleveland Cavaliers merely won their first NBA championship, 2016 would have had a star on the timeline of American sports history. But what is waiting 46 years for an NBA crown when the Chicago Cubs had to wait 108 years to reach the top of the baseball mountain? Had either of these teams erased a 3-1 deficit in their best-of-seven championship series, the event would have further cemented this year as significant. Both did.

The Cavs and Cubs somehow made footnotes of sports moments that otherwise would be leading annual reviews like this one. Villanova beat North Carolina for college basketball’s national championship on a buzzer-beating three-pointer, the kind of shot taken — and usually missed — on thousands of playgrounds and driveways . . . but in real life, with the cameras on and millions watching?

The Rio Olympics gave us Usain Bolt (again) and Michael Phelps (again). But the Games also introduced the world to Simone Biles and Katie Ledecky, proving (again) that on the sports world’s biggest stage, gender is merely a classification of greatness. In a world of more-apparent divisions, we could use an annual dose of Olympic togetherness. Deep breaths, everyone, as we await the 2018 Winter Games in South Korea.

No city has needed the distraction of sports more than Memphis. More Memphis lives have been taken violently this year than in any other year on record. We’re left to hope we’ve reached rock bottom in the bloody statistical category of homicide. And we turn to men in helmets and shorts to help us through.

This was the year Memphis became home to the highest paid player in the NBA. (Read that sentence again for emphasis, and know it’s quite temporary.) And when Mike Conley went down with broken bones in his back, the Memphis Grizzlies reeled off six straight wins — the sixth over mighty Golden State at FedExForum — to redefine the term “backbreaker” for good.

This was the year both flagship programs at the University of Memphis welcomed new coaches (a transition year unlike any since 1986). Mike Norvell has kept the pedal down for the football program, his team averaging a shade under 40 points per game despite Paxton Lynch now wearing a Denver Broncos uniform. And Tubby Smith has brought an almost regal feel to the Tiger basketball program, his lengthy record of success a welcome salve to a fan-base grown frustrated by, yes, divisions in the program.

We shed some tears as sports fans in 2016. Said goodbye to Muhammad Ali, then Gordie Howe, then Arnold Palmer. (Had but one of these legends died, the year would merit a black arm band.) The losses seemed to parallel those in the world of music: David Bowie, Prince, Leonard Cohen. It’s as though the year thirsted on pain.

Sunnier days are surely ahead. The Tiger football team will play its bowl game next week in Boca Raton, for crying out loud. Come December 31st, I’ll raise a drink to the year just passed, as I always do. But it will be a hard one. And I’ll chase it with an extra dose of firewater. I’ll then thank the heavens for, at the very least, giving us games to play.

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From My Seat Sports

Giving Thanks for Sporting Events of 2016

This is my favorite column of the year, a chance for me to fill that mocking space on my screen with the sports-related subjects I’m most grateful to have in my club car on this train called life.

Gratitude. Give it a chance.

• I’m grateful for Year Seven of the Memphis Grizzlies’ “core four.” I wish we could come up with a more distinctive tag for our “fab four”: Mike Conley, Marc Gasol, Tony Allen, and Zach Randolph. They’ve earned that much, sticking together in one of the NBA’s smallest markets in an age when as many as five years with a franchise — for a single player, let alone a quartet — is considered lengthy. For some perspective, the Lakers’ great foursome of the Eighties — Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Magic Johnson, James Worthy, and Michael Cooper — played exactly seven seasons together. More recently in San Antonio, Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, Manu Ginobili, and Bruce Bowen broke up the band after seven years. Four years with one super-teammate (Dwyane Wade) was enough for LeBron James, and they won a pair of titles together. We won’t see another foursome like this at FedExForum.

Tubby Smith

• I’m grateful for Georgia Tech hiring Josh Pastner . . . and Memphis hiring Tubby Smith. Exhale. Last winter was excruciatingly uncomfortable for anyone in proximity to Pastner and the multiplying empty seats on game nights at FEF. And that contract(!) that made it all but impossible for the U of M to dismiss him. Thankfully, these kinds of divorces seem to unfold as they should. A good man is in a happier place. And a good program can aim to be great again under the wise watch of a man aiming to take a sixth program to the NCAA tournament.

• I’m grateful for an early look at Alex Reyes. The big righty appears to be on his way to stardom with the St. Louis Cardinals. It was nice to watch a few Reyes outings at AutoZone Park, the latest Redbirds coming attraction.

• I’m grateful for George Lapides and Phil Cannon and all they gave the Memphis sports community. Like days of the week, a sports community — its teams, its fans, its sponsors, its venues, its media personalities — has a “feel.” George and Phil brought a warmth — and distinct passion — to sports in Memphis. They live on in every one of us who attends a ball game now and then.

• I’m grateful for Mike Norvell’s energy and confidence. He’s the first Memphis Tiger football coach in generations to face an imposing task in filling his predecessor’s shoes. He has graciously saluted Justin Fuente’s achievements in building the program . . . while emphasizing it’s not where he and his staff want it be. Not yet. His prematurely gray hair gives Norvell the appearance of a man beyond his 35 years. So does his attention to detail and single-minded focus in making Memphis a premium program. It’s the hardest sports job in town.

• I’m grateful for my daughters’ continued commitment to team sports. One will play her senior high school softball season as an All-Metro outfielder, while the other played her first varsity soccer season as merely a freshman. They are bright, skilled, beautiful young ladies. And they know well the values that make a good teammate. Such is necessary in the wide world that awaits them.

• I’m grateful to be following in the footsteps — literally, and rapidly — of my 5K-running wife. Her commitment to not just running, but competing, is a healthy rebuke of any middle-age ceiling on athleticism. I’m especially grateful for her waiting for me at the finish line, one race after another.

• I’m grateful for you. And every one of the Flyer readers who give us a platform to share news, views, and analysis of the people and events that make Memphis such an extraordinary town. I appreciate your counterpoints, value your applause, and listen to your criticism. You give my job redeeming value.

Happy Thanksgiving to all.

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Cover Feature News

Hoop City!

David Fizdale: The Prince of Process

“I don’t really get caught up in pressure. I’ve got a job to do.”

David Fizdale sits in a folding chair off to the side of the Grizzlies’ practice court, engaged in our conversation, but also watching the players still in the gym putting up some after-practice shots. “I approach it to win it every time.” Is the Grizzlies’ new head coach more interested in process than results?

“When I was at Miami, whether we necessarily had a team that could win it or not, we went after it the same way. And so, that was bred into me. And that’s the thing I respect so much about the Spurs organization, and now Golden State’s organization is becoming that. Cleveland’s becoming that. They expect to be there, and they prepare to be there every year no matter who’s on the team. And so that’s the mentality I wanted to bring to the organization. Because only one winner will be standing at the end of the year, but I want to try to put our team in position to be that team every year.”

Talk to this guy for 10 minutes, and it’s easy to understand why he’s already an NBA head coach. Everything he says is in earnest. Marc Gasol, when asked what he likes most about his new coach, said “he does what he says.” (Knowing Gasol, this is almost certainly a comment on the Grizzlies’ previous head coach, even if it’s a subconscious one.)

Fizdale’s natural leadership ability comes across in conversation, and if one examines how much has changed with the Grizzlies — entering the sixth season of the “Core Four” era — it’s clear that his arrival at the beginning of the summer set off a sea change within a franchise in the middle of the most successful run in its history.

This isn’t how teams used to operate. In the past, you were good for a while, then your guys got old, and then you were bad for a while until you got some new guys. While the stars of a team were in their prime, management’s sole responsibility was to bring in the best players available to patch the holes, to fill in where the “core” of the roster was lacking.

Veteran point guard Mike Conley

As the Spurs rose to dominance and magically stayed there, teams started to smarten up: If a team brings along young talent before their best players age out of their primes, their run of success can be lengthened. The good teams started to become as interested in player development as the bad ones — and now, arguably, even more so than the bad ones.

Much like their on-court product had defied the times, relying on post scoring and stifling, non-switching defensive schemes, the Grizzlies had defied this organizational model, too, burning off draft picks like farmers torching their rice fields, bringing in and relying on “proven veterans” (read: guys in their mid-30s who’d been very good somewhere else first), doubling down on the foursome of Mike Conley, Marc Gasol, Zach Randolph, and Tony Allen, determined to (grit-and-) grind them to dust until there was nothing left to use.

It seems more likely that the Fizdale hire is a symptom of a change in mindset than a cause of it, but regardless, the days of bringing in the Keyon Doolings of the world while consigning rookies to the end of the bench forever (unless they’re Xavier Henry) seem to be over. As the basketball on the court has changed, so has the mentality of the organization. Fizdale’s emphasis on player development was radically apparent even in the first game of the season, when rookie Andrew Harrison started at shooting guard and played 38 extremely uneven minutes, including crunch time of a close game. These are things that don’t happen for the Memphis Grizzlies if David Fizdale isn’t on the scene.

But what about those bad habits from the previous near-decade of Lionel Hollins/Dave Joerger coaching lineage?

“I wouldn’t call them bad habits; I would just call them habits of the system that they played in. You know, they had some big-time coaches before me. You talk about Hubie Brown, Dave Joerger, Lionel Hollins — who is a mentor of mine — these guys are big-time coaches. So they built a system around what they had and what made them successful. My system is different, and that’s all it is, is different, not better, not worse, and I’m just trying to break the habits from the old system to get them acclimated to the new system.”

Rookie guard Wade Baldwin IV

And how much of what Fizdale has brought with him — the easier vibe, the quiet determination, the general getting-down-to-business that has happened on his watch, the commitment to doing something different, old dogs taking it upon themselves to invent new tricks — how much of that is Miami Heat culture, and how much of that is Fizdale culture?

“It’s definitely a bunch of Heat culture, but I had to be … I had to morph into my own personality. So that it’s real, and it doesn’t come off fake. I put a lot of thought into this over the course of my career with the Heat, as far as taking something and morphing it into my personality where I can be genuine in my delivery.”

That authenticity goes a long way toward explaining the connection Fizdale was able to make with the hardest-to-please stakeholders in his project: the players themselves. Knowing he was taking over a group who’d played together a long time, he took it upon himself to win them over. “I tried to get that part out of the way this summer, by going and visiting every guy, one by one, and spending time with them individually. I really wanted to spell out each guy’s role to him. Before we ever got into the season. I wanted to spell out expectations. So by the time we got to training camp, I’d kind of already dealt with the tough conversations so we could just get to work and start preparing for a successful year.”

One of the toughest conversations, no doubt, involved bringing Zach Randolph, “#50 for the City” himself, off the bench instead of using him in the starting lineup — a hard sell for a proud player who admittedly still thinks he can (Randolph always stops short of saying “should”) be a starter.

Unfortunately for Randolph and his battalion of ever-loyal supporters, the signs of Randolph’s age-related decline have been apparent for a couple of seasons now, even as he’s put up solid offensive numbers. He can’t defend the new crop of power forwards in the league — the young guys just as comfortable shooting 3-pointers as they are dunking from the foul line. His lack of foot speed — as if a man made out of granite and tussin should be expected to move quickly — has made him a liability defending the pick-and-roll, causing problems as far back as the Grizzlies’ elimination from the 2013 Western Conference Finals by the Spurs. He’s never been much of a jumper, but as a new crop of hyper-athletic seven-footers takes over center position around the league, his shot is getting blocked more. Starting Randolph, making him the centerpiece of a modernized NBA offense, just isn’t tenable, no matter what sentimentalities would have us want to see it continue.

Zach Randolph

It’s a bold move, taking one of the two hearts of this team, one of the players most responsible for shaping their reputation for winning by sheer force of will and tactically deployed violence, and moving him to a supporting role. But that’s what Fizdale sees: a versatile team, reliant on movement and trust and pace, rather than elbows and hips and wanton destruction of the bodies of other tall men. Randolph doesn’t fit that picture, so to the bench he goes.

If “Grit and Grind” is to continue — and I hope it doesn’t, because in a city this creative we should be able to come up with something new by now — it’s going to have to be abstracted away from the floor itself, from the sets being run, from the post-up isolation possessions.

Fizdale already knows what it’s going to take. “We’re forging ahead. This is what we do. The past is done. One of our core values is ‘growth mindset.’ Growth mindset means you cannot be fixed in the past. You gotta have an open mind and be willing to work toward what’s going to make us the most successful team we can be.”

Given that in two of Joerger’s three seasons, the team rebelled against the changes he tried to implement during training camp, whether “growth mindset” is really taking hold remains to be seen. It’s probably the biggest question facing the Grizzlies this year.

Which isn’t to say it’s the only question, or even the only major one left dangling unanswered as they plunge headlong into the regular season.

Gasol suffered a fractured navicular bone last season, an injury that has ended the careers of other big men. His recovery was remarkable, and he says he feels better than he’s felt in years, but does that mean his foot will hold up to the stress of the rest of his basketball career, or is it going to drag him back down into injury quicksand?

Mike Conley, whom the Grizzlies signed to a $153M, five-year contract this summer, the largest in NBA history, until someone signs one in Summer 2017 under an even higher salary cap, has not been healthy at the end of a season in years. He and Gasol have both played an extraordinary number of minutes for players their age, and with rookies Wade Baldwin (who looks promising, if unpolished) and Harrison (who looks both less promising and less polished) as the only backup point guard options heading into the season, is there any way he can get enough rest to make it to the end of this one?

New signee Chandler Parsons is on a four-year, $94 million deal, had a knee surgery last spring that was supposed to sideline him for six to eight weeks, and still hasn’t been cleared for full contact (at least not at the time this was written). If Parsons returns to his former glory, he’s an offensive weapon like the Grizzlies have never had before, a versatile forward who can shoot threes, yes, but also create offense everywhere on the floor, able to be deployed in just about every offensive scenario imaginable. If he doesn’t ever return to his former peak, the Grizzlies just sunk nearly $100 million into the NBA equivalent of a toxic asset of rolled-up, foreclosed-on subprime mortgages.

And what about all of these young guys? JaMychal Green turns 27 this season, so he’s not really that young in NBA time and unlikely to find some new developmental plateau not yet reached. The rest are all unproven: Deyonta Davis, a second-round pick who was projected to go in the lottery. Baldwin, a talented young guard who may have been a steal. Jarell Martin, another guy with a history of foot injuries, who may develop into an extremely athletic, versatile forward, or who may not crack the rotation.

Fizdale isn’t worried about this stuff, or if he is, he doesn’t seem fazed by it. I pointed out to him that when a team is usually 28th in the league in pace, even 20th will seem like a major improvement.

“You could be better. Right?” he said. “You could be better. And so, this is what we do. I’m pretty stubborn when it comes to that stuff. And I’m going to constantly keep my foot on the gas and keep pushing them to get out of their comfort zone.”

The Grizzlies are way out beyond their comfort zone, all of them, from the top of basketball operations to the guys at the end of the bench, but I’ve never seen everyone in the organization this committed to growth. Fizdale is their prophet of change, and like Jonah at Nineveh, his message seems to have been received at once. There are no solid answers about what lies in the future for the Grizzlies; there is only process. “The process is all I focus on,” he says. “And, you know, let the chips fall where they may at the end of it.” — Kevin Lipe

Tubby Smith: A New Era Begins

Transition years happen in college basketball. With the exception of the program in Durham, North Carolina, and maybe Syracuse, New York, coaches keep their bags packed, with a variety of tie colors in their closet. But what about a transition era?

With the departure of coach Josh Pastner (overdue, according to much of the local fan base) and the arrival of Tubby Smith (by more than a few measures, the opposite of Pastner), the Memphis Tigers seem to be entering a season that will be transformative beyond the 30 to 35 games we’ll see this winter. Tiger basketball will be redefined under Smith, for good or ill.

Will the program return to the national prominence it enjoyed late in John Calipari’s tenure as head coach, or might it resettle as a good-not-great basketball home for largely local recruits, the kind of team that might or might not play in the NCAA tournament? (You might remember those teams from late in Larry Finch’s tenure as coach.) Who are the Memphis Tigers? And what can Tubby Smith do to help answer that question?

Calipari’s arrival in 2000 was a big deal, but the U of M has never — ever — welcomed a new basketball coach with the credentials of Orlando Henry Smith. In 25 years as a head coach, Smith has won 557 games and led five different programs — Tulsa, Georgia, Kentucky, Minnesota, and Texas Tech — to the NCAA tournament. His 1997-98 Wildcats won the national championship, one of four times a Smith-coached team has reached the NCAA tournament’s Elite Eight. He has three SEC Coach of the Year trophies on his mantel and just last season earned the same honor from the Big 12, when he led Texas Tech to the Big Dance. Smith was on the staff of the gold-medal-winning 2000 U.S. Olympic team and won the Naismith Coach of the Year Award at Kentucky in 2003. At age 65, Smith will not be surprised by anything he sees on a basketball court. Having reached a career — and life — stage where he can choose when and where to work (he’s declined multiple job offers), Smith has chosen Memphis.

“They called me,” says a grinning Smith, when asked why he’s now head coach at the University of Memphis. “It’s a great opportunity to help this program. I love what I’m doing. I’m healthy. I feel good about what I’ve accomplished in my career. There’s tradition here. It gets me closer to the east coast, closer to home.” (Smith was born and raised in Maryland.)

Sophomore forward Dedric Lawson

As for the expectations — a 19-15 record (like last season’s) doesn’t fly here — Smith spent 10 years in Lexington, Kentucky, so bring them on. “I don’t have anything to hide,” he says. “I’ll do the things I’ve always done, and do it to the best of my ability. I’ve never felt pressure. My dad taught me that long ago: Don’t think of coaching as pressure. Pressure is trying to feed 17 kids, trying to keep a roof over your head. I love the fan base here. But every program has a fan base that cares. The media can blow it up, even the administration. They don’t know the intensity level the players play at or the coaches coach at. We have our priorities and our goals. They’re pretty high, but they’re realistic.”

In forward Dedric Lawson, Smith will have one certifiable star on a roster that will count no more than 11 scholarship players. As an 18-year-old freshman last season, Lawson averaged 15.8 points and 9.3 rebounds on his way to being named Rookie of the Year by the American Athletic Conference. It had been more than a decade since a Tiger posted such figures and 34 years since a Tiger freshman reached these statistical heights. (Keith Lee averaged 18.3 and 11.0 in 1981-82.) Lawson was named the AAC’s Co-Player of the Year (with Cincinnati’s Troy Caupain) in the preseason coaches poll.

“Dedric is a complete player,” says Smith. “He needs to continue to improve his defense, his footwork. As far as understanding the game, he has great instincts. He needs to be a facilitator when teams stack against him. He needs to be a screener, move without the ball. The screener is usually more open than the cutter. If you want to be a scorer — and a good team player — you need to be a good screener.”

Lawson has managed to gain weight (he’s up to 235 pounds) while lowering his body-fat percentage. The trick: cutting fried foods and, begrudgingly, cheese from his diet.

There are only three other members of the Tiger roster who could be considered rotation players from last season. Junior guard Markel Crawford started 25 games in 2015-16, but his numbers — 5.3 points and 3.2 rebounds — will need to improve this winter, even as Crawford defends an opponent’s top perimeter threat.

Junior Markel Crawford will be a defensive stopper for the Tigers.

Sophomore Jeremiah Martin will be in the mix at point guard. The Mitchell High alum played in 29 games as a freshman but averaged fewer than 15 minutes per game. At such a small sample size, what does Martin’s 34-18 assist-turnover ratio really tell us?

Then there’s Dedric’s older brother, K.J. Lawson. The swingman was limited to 10 games by a foot injury and will play this season as a redshirt freshman (creating the oddity of K.J. playing a class behind his younger brother). His height (6’7″) and versatility will be valuable to a generally undersized team. Senior Jake McDowell (5.4 minutes per game last season) and sophomore Craig Randall (8.0 minutes) are back and will get floor time when injuries or foul trouble squeeze the rotation.

Among the newcomers, expect immediate impact from graduate transfer Christian Kessee, a sharp-shooting guard who hit 88 three-pointers last winter and led Coppin State with 14.6 points per game. He should fill the void left by Avery Woodson, who transferred to Butler following his junior season. Freshman Keon Clergeot followed Smith to Memphis after initially signing to play at Texas Tech. He could see time at point guard, likely spelling Martin until a starting five is firmly established.

The Tigers are not a big team, which makes Baylor transfer Chad Rykhoek (RYE-cook) perhaps the most significant swing variable on the roster. At 6’11” and 230 pounds, the senior has the frame for post play. But he hasn’t been able to stay healthy, hip injuries keeping him on the sidelines for two years now. Lawson cannot pull down every rebound or block every shot. Rykhoek could be instrumental in these areas. “Chad brings rebounding,” emphasizes Smith. “We need size and length, and Chad brings that. He’s a very good athlete; we need to be more athletic. He’s been a pleasant surprise.”

Junior Jimario Rivers — a 6’8″ transfer from Southwest Tennessee Community College who Smith considers one of the team’s best defenders — will also be called upon for blue-collar work inside.

Thousands of empty seats at Tiger home games forced the current transition. Longtime followers of the Tiger program turned away from Pastner’s teams, most visibly at FedExForum on game nights when most of the upper deck would be empty. It’s their view of the Tiger program — those ticket-buying fans who chose to stay home — that reveals as much as any game analyst or coaching critic.

Jon Neal is a 1993 graduate of the U of M and a longtime booster. He also became a close friend of Pastner’s after his young son endured a cancer scare at St. Jude during Pastner’s tenure as head coach. While he has nothing but positive impressions — to this day — of Pastner, Neal feels a change was necessary, and Tubby Smith is the right successor.

“Like any human being,” says Neal, “when you’re bombarded with negative stuff, it takes a toll on you. I could see it [in Pastner]. He’s the finest human being I’ve ever met. The only thing that I feel bad about Josh is that whenever there was a glaring need for something, he was resistant to listening to other people for advice. He felt he had a way to fix things, and sometimes he surrounded himself with people who did not help him obtain goals he set out for the team.”

Like many followers of the program, Neal saw the sudden departure of star forward Austin Nichols (for Virginia during the summer of 2015) as the beginning of the end for Pastner. “Josh was submarined on that,” he says. “Decimated. Everything about last season was set up for Austin Nichols being here with Shaq Goodwin. Players transfer from every school. But something happened here the last few years, and players couldn’t get away fast enough. Why are players leaving so rapidly after they were dying to get here [to play for you]? Josh was a career recruiter, but he didn’t … cultivate relationships after players [arrived]. This may have been his undoing.”

Neal sees Tubby Smith as checking most every box Pastner did not, starting with a comfort level even amid criticism from a fan base or the media. “Coach Smith has been doing this for so long,” he says. “He’ll be a master organizational guy. All roles will be defined. Each player will be developed to benefit the overall goals of the team. He brings a success story that precedes him. And he’ll bring a side of accountability that we haven’t seen in some time. People will come to watch winning, but we have to learn to win first.”

Ken Moody played for Dana Kirk’s last Tiger team (1985-86) and Larry Finch’s first as head coach (1986-87). Now a special assistant to Memphis mayor Jim Strickland, Moody is reluctant to blame Pastner personally for the program’s recent decline, but like Neal, he sees Smith’s arrival as necessary, even critical.

“We have some of the most astute fans,” says Moody. “We should never insult their intelligence by portraying something other than the facts. Regardless of what our won-lost record has been the past couple of years, our program is a respectable one that will always generate national attention from high school players and media.

“Coach Smith’s honesty and integrity are his best virtues. At his initial press conference, he talked about loving every player he has coached. He’s respected by all of his peers because he’s always done it the right way. When parents give you the responsibility to help shape their sons, they want someone like Tubby Smith to be the example.”

To a man, the Tiger players are motivated by the preseason poll that placed them fifth in the AAC (behind Cincinnati, Connecticut, SMU, and Houston). Crawford in particular has relished what might now be called “Tubby time” in these parts. “It’s been a business approach,” says the former Melrose High School star. “He brings family love and discipline, things we stand upon. There’s a sense of urgency to get us better. We’ll be playing hard for 40 minutes; fans won’t be in doubt.”

Smith grew up the sixth of 17 children, a born leader (by necessity) under the guidance of his father, Guffrie Smith, and mother, Parthenia. Among the early lessons Smith took from his dad: Debt, if managed intelligently, is not a bad word. Whether borrowing money to purchase real estate or taking home groceries in advance of payment, Smith’s dad always paid his debts. As his son emphasizes today, there was honor involved. And a communal bond forged between hard-working parents and those who helped raise a large family.

Somewhere in this life fabric is the reason Tubby Smith is now in Memphis, in charge of a program that has lifted — sometimes maddened — its large following for several generations now. Is Smith in debt to Memphis? Quite the opposite. (Smith’s contract will pay him more than $15 million over five years.) No, if Smith owes anyone anything at this point in his career, it’s the game of college basketball itself. And what better way to pay such a debt than to help a family — a basketball community — in need?

“I can’t do enough,” says Smith. “I can’t pay back enough, for what this game has meant to me and my family from the day I decided to get into teaching and coaching. Donna and I got married, and she made sacrifices. I’ve always said, the greater the challenge, the bigger the reward. The more you give, the more you receive. My dad had nothing. But it doesn’t cost a thing to be polite or do a good deed. If we all believed that, the world would be such a great place. I’m happy I learned that lesson.” — Frank Murtaugh

The Tigers play CBU in an exhibition at FedExForum on November 7th. The regular season opens on November 14th when Texas-Rio Grande Valley comes to town.