Tag: Nick King

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Hoop City Memphis 2015!

CREDIT: Larry Kuzniewski

The Grizzlies

Can the Core Four take it up a notch?

Last year’s Grizzlies were the best or second-best team in the NBA for most of the season, before a collapse down the stretch lost them the Southwest Division title and landed them in the fifth seed in the playoffs. Marc Gasol had a career year, Zach Randolph had the best season since his 2012 knee injury, Mike Conley elevated his play offensively, and until the Griz fell apart and then limped into the playoffs with key injuries to Conley and Tony Allen (not to mention the broken face Conley suffered in the first round against Portland), it looked like last year was “the year.”

Larry Kuzniewski

Marc Gasol

Instead, they took the Golden State Warriors to six games in the second round before being eliminated, and what looked like “the year” became another run at the title that didn’t quite get there.

This year, things are in flux a little bit. Here are the 10 biggest questions facing the Grizzlies in the 2015-16 season:

Can the Grizzlies really win a championship in today’s NBA?

This question has hounded the Grizzlies since they lost to the Spurs in the Conference Finals a few years back, and has only intensified in the years since, with the rise of the Warriors and Hawks and other “pace-and-space” three-point shooting teams, and of “small-ball” lineups that push the pace without traditional big men.

Given the Grizzlies’ offensive limitations, it’s not hard to see that in the postseason, when the game slows down and becomes much more chess-like and concerned with tactical adjustments made on a nightly basis, the Griz are uniquely built to be hard to adjust to, given that what’s different about them is their personnel and not the plays they run. But, as we saw in last year’s second-round series against Golden State, those limitations can become a liability in the playoffs, when the other team decides to take away the ability to score in the post and dares the Griz to shoot long-jumpers.

I’m not sure what they can do to counter those adjustments, besides have a different roster and play a different way. And with Gasol returning on a five-year deal, and Conley likely to do the same, it seems exceedingly unlikely that that’s what’s going to happen. In the meantime, we watch and wait to see if they can evolve offensively enough to turn the corner.

Is the season a failure if the Griz don’t make it past the second round?

One thing was repeated in almost every Grizzlies preview story written in national media this year: As good as these Grizzlies have been, and for as long as they’ve been that way, we still don’t know whether they’re good enough to win an NBA title. The question remains: Are the Grizzlies just going to be the speed bump in the path of the great teams forever, like the Bad Boy Pistons to the Western Conference elite’s Jordan Bulls?

This year’s team is basically the same as last year’s, with a different look from the bench (bringing in Brandan Wright and Matt Barnes has totally changed the complexion of the second unit) and a brewing controversy about whether Jeff Green or Allen should start at small forward (hint: not Green).

Now that “Can they go the distance?” is the question most often asked about the Grizzlies, instead of “Can they make the playoffs?” it’s hard to argue that it’s anything less than a disappointment every year that they don’t make a deep run into the postseason.

Is this year actually a stealth rebuild?

The conventional wisdom is that with Gasol’s return on a five-year contract, the Grizzlies are essentially “running it back” this year with the same guys, and rolling the dice to see if they can end up with better seeding and better matchups in the playoffs, thus making it to the Conference Finals or maybe even the Finals.

On paper, it looks like that’s exactly what’s happening, but I’m not so sure. Yes, the personnel is mostly unchanged from last year, but, while adding Wright to the bench is a huge deal for what the Griz can do offensively, outside the “Core Four,” the team is mostly made up of young guys who haven’t proven themselves, veterans in contract years, and old guys on the verge of retirement (Okay, maybe that’s just Vince Carter).

Is this really a stealth rebuild with a bunch of roster churn where the Grizzlies try to stay good while flipping pieces around and loading up for next year?

Let’s think through this “stealth rebuild” hypothesis. Obviously, the Grizzlies have been an excellent team for the last five straight seasons. That has to end at some point.With Randolph entering the season at age 34, and Allen turning 34 in January, it’s obvious that age will catch up with these two guys at some point. Who are the guys who are going to step up if it happens to be this year? (Crickets)

Exactly. Those guys aren’t on the roster right now. There was talk of Jarnell Stokes being “Z-Bo replacement” material, but that was a stretch at best. Right now, the Grizzlies don’t have a backup plan. The way to have a backup plan is to build your next core group while your current core group is still playing. The Spurs did this right around the time that some team from Memphis knocked them out in the first round, and came out of it with future Finals MVP Kawhi Leonard. They looked completely done in that series, but all the while some of the pieces that would win them their next championship were already on the roster.

The Grizzlies don’t have that right now. They’ve got a bunch of guys who could be that but haven’t played much, and they’ve got some guys who are probably going to be gone after this year, and then they’ve got the Core Four and Wright.

This team has a lot of expiring contracts and decisions to make this summer. Players who are free agents after this season: Conley, Green, Courtney Lee, Beno Udrih, and Barnes.

And these are the players who have team options after this year, meaning the team can decide whether to pick up that option: Jordan Adams, Stokes, Russ Smith, JaMychal Green. Carter’s final year of his contract is $4.2 million on paper but is only partially guaranteed, meaning they don’t have to pay him the whole thing if he’s waived. All nine of these guys are basically going to have to prove their worth this season (except Conley, one assumes).

I’ve said all this and it makes it sound like I think the team is going to win 30 games. I don’t believe that. I think, as good as this group of players is, health is the only thing that could keep them out of the postseason. But I do think we’re going to see the start of that roster churn this year. I think guys are going to get traded. I think they’re going to struggle to get it together because there are some interesting depth issues and some real crowds at the forward positions. I think the organization’s eyes are probably on being as good as they can this year while trying to build the next great Grizzlies team around Gasol and Conley.

If Jordan Adams gets healthy, is he going to matter this season?

Adams has the unenviable position of being a late first-round pick on a veteran team that can’t afford to “miss” on many first-round picks because most of them have been leveraged to build the current core of players.

With any luck, Coach Dave Joerger will realize at some point this season that he simply has to play Adams for the good of the team: If they’re going to develop him into a rotation player, he has to play NBA minutes. It’s the same problem former Coach Lionel Hollins had of not developing talent and then blaming the younger players for their own lack of development. I’m not encouraged that Adams will be given a chance to make a difference, but I hope he will, because the Grizzlies simply can’t afford for him not to; they’ve given up too many future draft picks already.

Larry Kuzniewski

Mike Conley

Can Mike Conley make it to April without health issues?

Even before he got his face broken in the Portland series last year, Conley was already so banged up he could barely play. He and Allen both went into the postseason with nagging injuries, the kind that don’t heal unless you take time off, and the first round of the playoffs is not the time for that.

So can Conley keep his body together long enough to make it to the playoffs intact? That depends on whether the Grizzlies’ current backup point-guard tandem of Udrih and Smith can play well enough so that Conley doesn’t have to be on the floor for more than 35 minutes a night.

Udrih isn’t really in game-shape after offseason ankle surgery, and Smith is young and unproven, just as likely to turn the ball over as he is to dazzle the crowd. And if they can actually hold down the fort, will Joerger take the opportunity to rest Conley or play him so that the Grizzlies have a better shot of winning regular-season games? If the Grizzlies are going to emulate the Spurs model, resting players and not worrying about every regular-season game is something they’re going to have to do.

Is this the year Tony Allen gets old?

Allen turns 34 this season, and his maniacal defense is greatly dependent on his athletic abilities and using his incredible physical gifts to be in the right place at the right time. But his quickness and reflexes are going to leave him at some point. He won’t always be able to play the game the way he plays it now.

Injuries have plagued Allen the last couple of years. He only played in 63 games last year, and the year before that he played 55. If that’s the beginning of a pattern, the Griz shouldn’t be surprised if Allen misses 20-plus games again this year.

I think Allen’s got another season or two left before he starts to really feel the effects of age, but his recent injury history is worrying, especially, because as far as I know, there’s not a backup plan for losing one of the league’s best perimeter defenders.

Jeff Green’s not really a starter, is he?

I’m withholding judgment on the Green Starting at Small Forward era until I have more than one game’s worth of evidence on which to base said judgment, but that first game was just like the preseason, and just like the games last year where it happened: The offense reverted to the bad old days of the Lionel Hollins/Rudy Gay Memorial Clogged Toilet Offense — nobody moved and guys dribbled the ball until somebody came open for a quick shot instead of passing the ball around.

I don’t think it’s a coincidence that the presence of a player similar to Gay in the lineup has brought back the same issues that plagued this roster when Gay was here. But maybe Green just hasn’t found his rhythm yet. Maybe he needs a few games to get his sea legs.

Who will be on the roster after the trade deadline?

I’m sure that if the Jeff Green experiment has proven by February that it’s not going to work out, Green will be shopped (he’s got a $9 million expiring contract). Other guys with expiring contracts might be too, though if Lee can keep up his hot streak of aggressive play from the preseason, he won’t be going anywhere and will probably get re-signed to the Grizzlies to a new deal. Time, and Lee’s production, will tell.

Is this the year people stop saying they want Lionel Hollins to be coach again?

Judging from Twitter during the Grizzlies’ blowout loss to the Cavs to open the season, not even close. — Kevin Lipe

The Tigers

Can the Tigers turn the program — and Josh Pastner’s career — around?

These are sunny days for the University of Memphis — if you’re a football fan. But what of the long-proud basketball program, last seen leaving a court in Hartford, Connecticut, an 18-14 season in the books, and no postseason tournament for the first time in 15 years? The questions abound.

Should Memphis coach Josh Pastner take the departures of Austin Nichols and Nick King personally?

Yes and no. Anytime a still-valued player leaves a program (read: coach), exhaust fumes from the proverbial getaway car surround the coach with an unmistakable stench, at least for a while.

Larry Kuzniewski

Josh Pastner

King and Nichols were Pastner’s prize catches in the recruiting class that arrived merely two years ago. Furthermore, they are products of this city, raised on blue dreams and gray passions. For each player to decide — after but two seasons — that the hometown program (read: coach) is not a good fit is quite the opposite of a selling point for future prize recruits, be they from Memphis or elsewhere.

“I was totally blindsided by Austin Nichols,” Pastner says. “Had no idea. I’d had many conversations with him. He told me he loved it here. That said, there’s no ill will. We move forward.We’ll play differently, spread the floor more.”

But then also consider the departures, in modern terms, business decisions. King was a disappointing player over his two seasons with Memphis. A new environment and uniform can make for a fresh start in ways that more subtle adjustments (goal-setting, work habits, etc.) cannot. And Nichols clearly had one eye on Virginia since his days at Briarcrest. Memphis (read: Pastner) obviously didn’t provide enough to refocus that wandering eye, but this is a divorce initiated by the player, not the coach. The Tigers will not win without players who want to play for Memphis.

Can Shaq Goodwin (finally) be The Man?

The Tigers’ senior power forward has had a nice college career. In 101 games with Memphis (91 of them starts), Goodwin has averaged 9.5 points and 6.0 rebounds. (As a junior last season, the numbers were 9.6 and 7.1.) With 44 more points, Goodwin will become the 50th member of the program’s 1,000-point club. If he stays healthy, the Georgia native will likely climb to ninth in career rebounds at the U of M. But …

There always seems to be a “but” in measuring Goodwin’s impact. He was positively monstrous (23 rebounds) in a one-point loss to Temple at FedExForum last February. But he took only eight shots (and made only two), coming up short on the offensive end in a game the Tigers had to win (and lost by a single point). Goodwin must be a complete force — the face and body of this program — for the Tigers to have any hope of NCAA tournament play come March.

What are we to make of the Tigers’ backcourt?

Lots of pieces here, few of them guaranteed playing-time. There are a pair of seniors with SEC experience (Kedren Johnson and Ricky Tarrant). There are two familiar faces whose roles never became clear last season (Avery Woodson and Markel Crawford). There’s a trio of freshmen who could land rotation spots or end up waving towels at the end of the bench (Jeremiah Martin, Randall Broddie, and Craig Randall).

If Pastner fails to clearly identify and assign roles, the backcourt could become a mess. Try winning a basketball game when you don’t know who is handling the ball.

“[Tarrant] is a veteran guard,” Pastner emphasizes. “He can score; he knows how to play. When he wants to be a very good defender, he can be.” Tarrant is well-traveled, having scored 1,000 points at Tulane (where he was C-USA’s Freshman of the Year in 2012) and last season at Alabama before transferring as a graduate student to Memphis. He would seem to be a stabilizer for an otherwise young roster, a player who won’t be surprised by the size and speed of Division I college basketball.

“I’m excited to see how we play with better spacing,” Pastner says. “And we’ll play faster. We need to do some things better than we did last year. We had a lot of turnovers to start the season and gave away games. Our guard play wasn’t good enough, and that falls on me. I made some recruiting misjudgments.”

Johnson has been dealing with a balky right shoulder, and Tarrant is coming off foot surgery, so this bounty of guards may be reduced — temporarily or long-term — when the Tigers open against Southern Miss on November 14th.

Larry Kuzniewski

Shaq Goodwin and Dedric Lawson

What can be expected from star recruit Dedric Lawson?

Memphis has seen mixed results from the last four McDonald’s All-Americans to suit up as Tigers. None of them — Elliot Williams, Joe Jackson, Adonis Thomas, and Goodwin — reached the Sweet 16 of the NCAA tournament. (Goodwin, of course, has one more season to change this.) Lawson turned 18 on October 1st. Can he compete immediately against players four and five years older?

“He’s a high-IQ and skill guy who can shoot the ball,” Pastner says. “He can create matchup problems. We’re asking him to do a lot from the get-go.” Having his older brother, K.J., nearby could ease the transition to college life for Dedric. “There’s a comfort level,” Pastner says, “and they’ve had success together, both in high school and AAU ball.” (Having one’s father on the bench, on the other hand, can be a mixed blessing. We’ll see what kind of influence Keelon has this year with two of his sons fighting for playing time.)

Does this team have a good shooter?

Woodson (37.7 percent) and Johnson (35. 3 percent) were competent but inconsistent from the outside last season. Tarrant (29.9 percent) won’t make anyone forget Doneal Mack, let alone Rodney Carney. Newcomers Broddie and Randall know their way to the basket, but neither will be a high-volume scorer from long distance. Former Mitchell High School star Jeremiah Martin — in the mix at point guard — shot 37 percent from three-point range as a senior and could build his value in the rotation as an off-the-bench shooter. “He plays hard,” Pastner says. “We’re teaching him some things. He has a tendency in transition to gamble. You can get away with that in high school.”

Pastner thinks his team needs to be more efficient from the three-point range. “The adjustments we make, spacing-wise, will allow more time for shooters to set their feet,” he says. “We’ll get open looks with better spacing.”

Are the Tigers too small?

The Tigers have exactly three players taller than 6’7″: Goodwin and Dedric Lawson are each 6’9″ (and must avoid foul trouble like processed meat), and Marshall is 6’11”. A native of Lexington, Tennessee, Marshall will likely absorb much of the blue-collar responsibilities: shot-blocking, offensive rebounds, defense help. “He’ll have some highs and lows as a freshman,” Pastner says. “He runs hard, rebounds hard. He’s not really skilled offensively right now. But his effort’s there. In time, he’ll be really good for us.”

Larry Kuzniewski

Shaq Goodwin

Goodwin loves what he’s seen from Marshall. “He’s my favorite,” the senior says. “He’s big. So much opportunity. He’s smart, too. And he’s got a soft touch around the bucket; he’s just a little raw.” The Tigers are a small team. Pay close attention to Marshall’s development.

Who is the Tigers’ X factor?

Trahson Burrell. The senior swingman displayed versatility on the wing (and on both ends of the floor) that called to mind former star Will Barton, but with the frequency of a moon phase. Six straight games with at least 10 points last December (five of them Tiger wins). Six straight games in single figures last February (three Memphis wins).

“He has to be a better defender for us,” Pastner says. Even with a season under his belt, Burrell may have the biggest “upside” of any player on the Memphis roster. And this team needs him … way up.

Can the Tigers win the AAC?

The American Athletic Conference sent two teams to the NCAA tournament last March. Defending league champ SMU has been banned from postseason play (and its Hall of Fame coach, Larry Brown, suspended nine games) for NCAA infractions. Cincinnati is a perennial threat, but a team Memphis beat by 13 last winter. The transitional nature of modern college basketball makes it hard to forecast a team’s strength based on the previous season. AAC coaches picked Memphis to finish fifth in the league, behind SMU, UConn, Cincinnati, and Tulsa, so these Tigers will play as underdogs.

What’s the most important area of improvement for the Tigers this season?

Count the empty seats at FedExForum. Last winter, there were an alarming number. If more of them aren’t filled this season, you’ll know the program is heading in the wrong direction. As recently as 2010-11 (Pastner’s second season as head coach), the Tigers averaged 16,768 tickets sold on game night. Last season, that figure plummeted to 13,915 (still 21st in the country).

For the second season in a row, Memphis will pack December with seven home games. The opponents are not the kind you circle a date to see: Louisiana Tech, Southeast Missouri, Manhattan, Southern, Ole Miss (okay, one circle), IUPUI, Tulane.

If the Tigers were in the Top 10 and bursting with star power on the court, you might see 16,000 fans visit FedExForum on a December Tuesday with Southern in town. The 2015-16 Tigers will be fortunate if 10,000 show up.

Will this be Pastner’s final season with the Tigers?

If the Tigers win 25 games and reach the second week of the NCAA tournament, Pastner will not just return; he’ll likely get a raise and an extension (beyond his current contract, which has him here through the 2017-18 season). If the Tigers fail to reach the NCAAs for a second year in a row, it’s hard to imagine Pastner surviving the outcry. The U of M fan base can go negative in the best of times. (Remember John Calipari’s “Miserables”?)

The Tiger coach remains positive. Reflecting on significant players’ transfers, Pastner notes, “Everything was basketball-related. We’re in Memphis, and you’re under a microscope 365 days a year. We’re privileged to have that microscope. The offseason had its challenges, but it was nothing that embarrassed the university or was against the law.”

Pastner thinks the number of televised games has contributed to the lower attendance figures, and on-court struggles have been exacerbated by that metaphorical media microscope. “There’s a lot of negativity by some media members,” he says. “Maybe they don’t like me. Maybe they don’t like me because I’m positive and they choose to live their lives negatively. I think it gets overblown. I’m gonna stay positive, locked in on who I am.

“When you step back and look at the success we’ve had here over six years [148 wins, 58 losses], a lot of people would have signed up for that. I love my job, and I love Memphis. I hope to be here a long time.”

Count at least one significant player fully in Pastner’s camp. “It took me a while to understand it,” Goodwin says. “But that’s how he is, 100 percent of the time. You can think of things — anything in life — two different ways: positive or negative. So why negative? I took it and ran with it. I preach it to the team. Last year, when I was struggling, I looked at things in a negative light. Had to change my mindset.”

Wins have historically been the best mindset-booster in sports. For this team, its coach, and fan base, a season of revelation is upon us. — Frank Murtaugh

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HOOP CITY!

CREDIT: Larry Kuzniewski

The Window

The Grizzlies are back with one of the best, deepest rosters in team history. It may be the best shot they’ve ever had at an NBA title.

by Kevin Lipe

“This is the year.” It’s a thing fans say to each other all the time. This is the year that the team gets over the hump. The year that everything lines up, the year that they catch the lucky breaks a team has to take to make it to a championship. This is the year. The year that we finally get to stop asking, “Are they good enough?” and just bask in it, revel in it, feel what it’s like to have something that isn’t an “almost.”

This is the year.

NBA teams are like the peonies in my backyard. They spend a lot of time looking like dead weeds, and then a lot of time as tender shoots coming up out of the spring ground. One morning they burst forth, beautiful, heavy in the dew, the air around them sweet — and then, just as suddenly, they’re gone, nothing to look at for the rest of the year. There’s a window, a time in which they’re at their peak, and then there’s the rest, three-and-a-half other seasons.

How’s that for a strained analogy? And yet, the Grizzlies are one of a handful of teams in the Western Conference that could legitimately win an NBA championship this year. Anyone who tells you any different isn’t paying attention. They’re deeper than they’ve ever been, the key players are either reaching the peak of their potential or not yet much past it. The front office has added pieces that strengthen them, but the competition is not going to stay static for long.

Larry Kuzniewski

Marc Gasol

Marc Gasol‘s Contract Extension

Marc Gasol is currently in the last year of his contract, making $15.8 million. He’ll be an unrestricted free agent when this season ends. Even if his intentions are to re-sign with the Grizzlies without ever testing the free agency waters, he can wait until the season is over and sign whatever deal the Grizzlies offer him at that point.

Gasol himself has said almost nothing about the situation, preferring to talk about winning basketball games, winning a championship, and how the team can improve. That doesn’t mean the rumors aren’t flying — the Knicks, now run by Pau Gasol’s former coach Phil Jackson, have already surfaced as a team very interested in acquiring Gasol’s services, and they likely won’t be the only ones.

The whole year is going to be like that, as general managers and agents spin up the rumor mills and try to pry Gasol away from a Grizzlies team and a city that he unabashedly loves. At some point, there will be reports that any and every team with max contract space is pursuing Gasol; that Gasol could “possibly” sign with them; that Gasol will leave the Grizzlies; that he’ll stay. It’s going to be a circus. That comes with the territory of having one of the best centers in the NBA.

It’s going to be hard for the team to keep the chatter from becoming a distraction in the locker room. Remember the run-up to the Rudy Gay trade? The whole team said they were just going to go out and play basketball and let the trade rumors fly, that they weren’t affected by it. Once the trade happened, though, every last one of them admitted that it had bothered them — especially the longest-term Grizzlies, Gasol and Mike Conley, the guys who had been with Gay all along. These guys are professional athletes, but they’re also people, and that sort of speculation is hard to shut out. If anyone can do it, it’ll be the no-nonsense Gasol, but it’ll be a major storyline going forward.

Larry Kuzniewski

Vince Carter

Whither Vinsanity?

The Grizzlies were able to land Vince Carter this summer in a deal that surprised most everyone, including the Grizzlies. Talks weren’t going well with fan favorite (and apparent LeBron James favorite) Mike Miller, and Dallas signed forward Chandler Parsons away from blood rival Houston, which left no money for Dallas to use to re-sign Carter. He and the Grizzlies started talking, and soon enough, Carter was a Grizzly, and Miller went off to sign a deal with the Cavs and chase another ring with LeBron.

At any rate, Carter (once healthy — he’s still recovering from offseason ankle surgery to repair an injury) gives the Grizzlies a new dimension of wing play that they haven’t had since, well, the Rudy Gay trade or earlier: someone who can shoot well, get to the basket when he needs to, defend, and create offense when a play breaks down. Carter, even at 37, is an upgrade over Miller in every category save three-point shooting percentage and promises to open up the floor for the Grizzlies’ bigs in ways that were impossible with the team’s roster in recent seasons.

It remains to be seen whether Carter will end up starting or fulfilling the same Super Sixth Man role he played in Dallas (though signs point to the latter, and I think that’s probably the best use of his skills at this point in his career). If he can recover fully from his surgery and integrate himself into the Grizzlies’ second-unit offense, he has a chance to really change the complexion of the Grizzlies’ bench and, of course, to be a “closer” in crunch time.

Larry Kuzniewski

Tony Allen

The Tony Allen Conundrum

Even though he arrived in Memphis a full season after Zach Randolph (in case y’all forgot the fun 40-win 2009–10 team that fell apart down the stretch), Tony Allen feels like the epicenter of the cultural explosion that is the Grit ‘n Grind Grizzlies. He’s the one who said “all heart, grit, grind” in the first place (lest “The Sefaloshas of the world” forget). It was his face and his quote that radio host Chris Vernon put on the T-shirt that launched an entire industry of bootleg/unlicensed Griz gear, lots of it bearing Allen’s likeness in some form or another.

It’s his insane, addled, ball-hounding defense that is so fun to watch in big moments, when he ratchets up the pressure, as the saying goes, and turns somebody’s water off. That and his ability to miss every single point-blank layup he gets… except the one that ties or wins the game for the Griz, his flexing on the sidelines, and his constant walking around the court mumbling to himself while everyone else is off huddling or doing some other team activity.

Allen is a major reason for the Grizzlies’ recent run of success. He is one of the key figures in the deepening of the city’s love affair with its pro basketball team, establishing roots in this city that would be hard to pull up.

Allen is also a bit of a problem: The things that make him one of the most tenacious perimeter defenders in the league also make him a wild card on offense. Sometimes, he decides to pull up for an 18-foot jumper. Sometimes, he tries to drive through three defenders to the basket and his layup bounces off the bottom of the rim (this has already happened this season). Sometimes, he makes a brilliant cut to the basket for a go-ahead score late in the fourth quarter. Sometimes, he goes rogue and tries to win the game himself, when there are other, better options on the floor. Allen’s offense is unpredictable to the point that he’s generally a liability on that end of the floor — not only because he can’t shoot very well, but also because he seems incapable of slowing himself down to process what he needs to do.

Beyond that, Allen’s stint on the bench last year clearly rubbed him the wrong way. After an extended hand injury that turned into a wrist injury that turned into “maybe they’re just sitting him so they can trade him” speculation, Allen returned to the court and started playing some of the best basketball of his career. The only problem with that, from Allen’s perspective, was that he was doing it coming off the bench. He wasn’t happy about it and made that known off the court, in the locker room, everywhere but in interviews. One gets the impression that he feels like his leadership role on the team means he’s guaranteed a starting spot, but that doesn’t seem to be the case in the eyes of head coach Dave Joerger. Allen is starting again, for now, but if someone else is playing well enough to claim that job, will Allen be pushed back to his sixth man role? And, if so, what will happen to the team’s chemistry? Do his defensive abilities outweigh his offensive limitations enough that starting him for morale/chemistry reasons makes sense from a “trying to win a championship this year” perspective?

The Grizzlies need the best Allen they can get this year, and they cannot afford for him to be a net negative. If they can keep him happy, and he can play to his strengths instead of holding back a team that needs all the offensive firepower it can get, things will be fine. If anything happens to throw that equation out of balance (whether injury, age, or Jordan Adams) the ride could get turbulent.

How Much Z-Bo Are We Getting?

Over the summer, Randolph signed a three-year contract extension with the Grizzlies for $10 million a year that will keep him here through the 2016–2017 season, at least. Randolph had a great season last year, carrying the team’s offense on his back (with no small amount of help from Mike Conley) through the dark days of Gasol’s injury.

As Randolph (who is 33) ages, his game will decline in some form or fashion, but for the Grizzlies’ title hopes this season, he’s got to be able to duplicate his success from last year, a return to form for Randolph, who suffered a major knee injury during the 2011–2012 lockout season.

There are signs of decline creeping in around the edges for Randolph: his field goal percentage has dropped, his shot gets blocked more often, he has a harder time working through his post moves to get baskets, and — most worryingly — his defense fell off a cliff last year. Randolph has never been a great defender, but in the last year or 18 months, teams have figured out that they can run pick-and-roll plays involving Randolph’s man and regularly get a pretty easy look at the basket. If he can improve on defense, or at least not get worse, he’ll probably be fine this year. This year’s new look, contract-year Gasol is only going to make the opportunities easier for him.

If he can stay healthy and can keep himself from being the main point of weakness in the Grizzlies’ fabled defense, Randolph, at $10 million this season, is likely going to be a bargain.

Back to the Window Thing

So what does this all mean? It comes back around to the idea that NBA teams have a limited window of time in which they can win a championship. There’s no guarantee of anything in sports. Things that no one can predict happen on a regular basis and change the course of entire teams, entire careers, entire franchises.

Everything is lined up for this Grizzlies team to be the best one the franchise has ever put on the court, including the 2013 team that made it all the way to the Western Conference finals. Oklahoma City’s Kevin Durant (and now Russell Westbrook) have both suffered big injuries. Houston didn’t improve much this summer because it gambled on Chris Bosh and lost. Dallas added Chandler Parsons and bolstered its roster but didn’t improve dramatically. The Clippers have an even bigger hole at small forward this year than the Grizzlies did last year. The Spurs are and forever will be the Spurs.

Beyond this year, even if one assumes Gasol will return, there is no guarantee of what will happen. Things change. Players age and retire. Chemistry doesn’t work out. Trades happen for financial reasons. Other teams improve. Last year — the slow start, the Gasol and Allen injuries, the Randolph Game 7 suspension in a winnable playoff series — should’ve taught Griz fans that no season can be taken for granted.

Will this be the last year of this run of playoff success? Who knows? The team is poised to be good for the next several years, assuming they can hang on to Gasol and Conley. But every window closes at some point, and usually you can’t tell it’s happened until after your chance at winning it all is gone. When eras end, things tend to collapse under their own weight, leaving wreckage and years of rebuilding to be done.

On paper, this appears to be the deepest and best Grizzlies team of all time. Grizzlies fans should cherish this team and this year, because for once, they really could win the NBA championship — and because nothing is guaranteed and nothing lasts forever.

This is the year.

…

Guarded Optimism

The 2014-15 Memphis Tigers will lean on a pair of veteran pillars as a new backcourt finds its way.

by Frank Murtaugh

Rarely has the University of Memphis basketball program undergone the kind of personnel transition Tiger fans will witness over the course of the 2014-15 season. Just last winter, the Tigers rode the play of four guards — all seniors — to a record of 24-10 and a fourth straight appearance in the NCAA tournament. Those guards are all gone, of course, leaving the ball — and the Tigers’ hopes for a return to the Big Dance — quite literally in the hands of players with exactly zero minutes played in a Memphis uniform. If you haven’t seen Pookie Powell play, or Markel Crawford, or Dominic Magee, or Avery Woodson, pull up a chair and join the crowd. Add Vanderbilt transfer Kedren Johnson to the mix and you have a quintet of new faces, each aiming to take the Tigers new places on the college basketball map.

“We’re so inexperienced, so young,” says Josh Pastner, who aims to become just the second Memphis coach (after Dana Kirk) to take the Tigers to five consecutive NCAA tournaments. “I won’t know [what we have] until we play actual competition. I have no clue. Everything’s brand new. Every game we play this year will be a new experience for a lot of these guys. We basically have three guys with game experience. That’s it.”

The “Perfect Guard”

If you combine the premier qualities of the five players likely to man the Tigers’ backcourt, you might just have the perfect college guard. Sophomore Powell may be the most versatile scorer (he averaged 27.8 points as a senior in high school). Redshirt freshman Crawford may be the best perimeter defender. Sophomore Woodson could be the best shooter (37.6 percent from three-point range at East Mississippi Community College). Freshman Magee is likely the best penetrator. (“I can drive and finish or drive and kick it out,” he says.) And Vanderbilt transfer Johnson may be the best ball-handler (he led the Commodores in assists as a sophomore in 2012-13). But how does Pastner best combine these skills on the court? And who is the guard (or guards) versatile enough to stay on the court when his go-to strength is failing him?

“There’s talent,” emphasizes Pastner. “But they have to develop a better understanding of the game, a better feel for the game. Retention is important, especially at that position. I think we’re going to be a good team, but it’s a hard read [now]. Sometimes when you least expect it, you have a breakout year. We need to find guys who know the system, know what I want, and can execute it. They’ll be the first with opportunities for game time.”

Powell spent last season with the Tigers but wasn’t allowed to practice. If there’s a player bursting for minutes on the floor, it’s the Orlando native with a toddler’s nickname. “Last year actually went by kinda quickly,” he says. “I’m just glad to be back out here, doing what I can do. I’ll bring energy every time I step on the court. And I want to show Coach I can win. I’ve never really won anything in my career.”

Larry Kuzniewski

Shaq Goodwin and Austin Nichols

The Returnees

Despite the veteran presence in their backcourt last season, the Tigers looked hopelessly overmatched against Connecticut (in the American Athletic Conference tournament at FedExForum) and Virginia (in the third round of the NCAAs) as their season came to an unceremonious close. The few current Tigers who felt the sting of those losses — most notably forwards Shaq Goodwin and Austin Nichols — will be tasked with infusing this year’s team with a dose of motivation and toughness. Along with Nick King, Goodwin and Nichols are the only returning rotation players. Kuran Iverson is also back, intent on significantly increasing the 9.1 minutes he averaged in 19 games as a freshman last season.

“I’m not looking for a leadership position,” says Goodwin, who averaged 11.5 points last season and led the Tigers with 6.5 rebounds per game as a sophomore. “Once you start singling out people, that’s where different expectations come that you don’t need. Once we’re one big team, we’ll be fine. My thing this season is staying consistent. Coach [Robert] Kirby has worked with me on rebounding and staying consistent at the free-throw line, two areas where I struggled last year.” (Goodwin shot 59 percent from the charity stripe.)

The Tigers will need Goodwin to be as fierce on the floor as he is genteel off it, and the same goes, really, for Nichols. The Briarcrest alum started every game last season, averaging 9.3 points and 4.3 rebounds on his way to Rookie of the Year honors in the American Athletic Conference. Whereas Goodwin lost weight after his freshman season to make more of an impact, Nichols added close to 20 pounds this summer in hopes of the same. “Conditioning is a huge thing,” he says. “If Shaq and I can play large minutes and not get tired, that’s huge. And staying out of foul trouble. Be smart; no easy fouls.”

Larry Kuzniewski

Nick King

King will likely start at small forward, returning the Tiger lineup to a conventional two-guard, three-forward look at tip-off. The East High alum averaged just 4.9 points and 11.1 minutes per game as a freshman, but showed flashes — like 23 points against Oklahoma State in his second college game — that suggest he could be an offensive force (if his defensive limitations don’t force him to the bench).

And Iverson is excited to settle into a power-forward slot, even as a reserve. “I like being in the paint,” he says, “where I can make my moves easier, near the hoop. I can block shots, play defense, and rebound.” Adds Goodwin, “Kuran can be whoever he wants to be. He can dribble, he can shoot. He just has to put it in his mind. He’s on the right path. I see a big difference between Kuran this year and Kuran last year.”

Like his entire fan base, Pastner looks at Goodwin and Nichols as the stabilizing forces for a team desperately in need of on-court leadership. “They have to be consistent,” he says. “We have to depend on them and know what we’re getting every game.”

Frontcourt Newbies

Two new arrivals should add muscle to the Tiger frontcourt, particularly on the defensive end. Calvin Godfrey (6’8″, 233 lbs.) transferred from Southern and is actually the only senior on the team. Chris Hawkins (6’6″, 230 lbs.) averaged 15.2 points and 6.8 rebounds last season at Southwest Tennessee Community College but was limited to nine games by ankle injuries. Yet another Memphis rookie, Trahson Burrell, could earn minutes at forward, guard, or both. More wispy than Godfrey or Hawkins, Burrell (6’6″, 169 lbs.) was a scoring presence over his two seasons at Lee College in Texas, averaging 20.7 points on 52-percent shooting.

Each of the transfers will don a Tiger uniform with expectations for impacting the Memphis program immediately. “I didn’t bring them here to be 10th or 11th guys,” Pastner says. “They have to produce for the program. Calvin is 23. He has a maturity about him. Kedren started at Vanderbilt. They have to get the job done, and they know it. If there is a bruiser [on this team], it’s Calvin Godfrey.”

The Rotation

By the time conference play arrives in January, a dozen players now in the mix for significant playing time should be whittled to eight (or even seven). Pastner will go deeper on his bench only if forced. “A seven- or eight-man rotation keeps it organized,” he says, “and lets everyone know their roles. But that rotation won’t be defined in November. We’ll know by the end of November, though, because of the teams we play early. We’ll be tested.” After opening their season against Wichita State on November 18th (in Sioux Falls, South Dakota), the Tigers face Baylor on Thanksgiving day (in Las Vegas).

A Transition Year?

No team in any sport wants to be considered part of a “transition year.” The tag implies losses, growing pains, the only silver lining, perhaps, a preview of better things to come. But it’s hard to look at the roster of the 2014-15 Memphis Tigers and not have the T-word at least tickling your consciousness. “It does feel like a transition year,” says King, another sophomore thrust into a position of veteran leadership. “New faces, new attitudes. But I think we have great team chemistry. The new players are great people. If you’ve got a good person, you can make a great player.”

The way Pastner sees things, forget any notion of transition. “This is a start-fresh year,” he says. “If you’re forecasting, you’d say we’re loaded for the future: everybody’s coming back, the recruits we’re getting. But people are anxious to see how we do this year. This is a brand-new team, starting from ground zero.”

And does the 37-year-old coach feel any of that anxiety himself? “I’m rejuvenated, excited about it,” Pastner says. “There was a lot more managing last year. Every second is more teaching this year. If I wanted to, I could stop every possession of practice to teach. But that’s not reality. I have to let them play, adjust, recover on the fly. I wish they’d give us 10 more games to play.”

There’s a photo mural that runs the length of the Tigers’ practice court at the Finch Center on the U of M campus: 12 players, arms linked, only their torsos visible. No faces. The mural says, “One team. One goal. No egos.” The 2014-15 Memphis Tigers will not be a faceless team. That’s impossible in this town. Whether or not those arms remain linked (at least metaphorically) come March will depend on how trying the next four months become for a team that will spend most of the winter learning how to get along, on the court and off.

…

Schedule Highlights

• For a team learning to play together, the Tigers have a schedule luxury: nine straight home games, starting December 2nd (Stephen F. Austin) and ending January 3rd (Tulane). Oklahoma State (December 13th) will highlight this stretch. If you want to circle a few dates on your 2015 calendar, start with January 15th, when Cincinnati visits FedExForum (the Bearcats are picked to finish fourth in the American, right behind Memphis). League favorite (and defending national champion) Connecticut visits February 19th and SMU will be here February 26th.