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Politics Politics Feature

Rumblings

As the recent nonstop turbulent weather subsided somewhat, last weekend saw the culmination of candidate endorsements by the People’s Convention, a citizens movement of some years’ standing, with roots in the inner city and among progressives. That turned out to be a mano a mano between NAACP president Van Turner, the early favorite of Democrats and progressives, and Paul Young, the Downtown Memphis Commission CEO who has undeniable momentum (and cash reserves) feeding his goal of across-the-board support.

Despite a stem-winding address to the 300 or so attendees by Turner in which the candidate recounted his many services in his NAACP work, as a county commissioner, as a Democrat, and as a prime mover in the removal of Confederate memorabilia Downtown, the win went to Young, the election season’s most unstinting mayoral aspirant, who focused his remarks on his past services as a workhorse in city and county government, which, he said, had garnered support for such community additives as the Memphis Sports and Events Center at Liberty Park itself, where the People’s Convention was being held this year under the direction of the Reverend Earle Fisher.

Fisher has in recent years revived the convention, which had first been held in 1991 and had been a force that year in the election of Willie Herenton as the city’s first Black mayor. Ironically, Fisher on last Saturday would chastise both Herenton, a mayoral candidate again, and Sheriff Floyd Bonner, another aspirant, for their no-shows this year at the People’s Convention.

Bonner had opted instead for a well-attended forum on women’s issues, being held simultaneously at the IBEW building on Madison under the auspices of the Democratic Women of Shelby County. Eight other mayoral contenders also participated in that event.

The mayoral-preference vote at the People’s Convention last Saturday was 224 for Young and 116 for Turner, and owed much to the disproportionate sizes of the supportive claque each brought with him.

Other Convention preferences were for Jerri Green in council District 2; Pearl Walker in District 3; Meggan Kiel in District 5; Michalyn Easter-Thomas in District 7; JB Smiley Jr. in Super District 8, Position 1; Janika White in Super District 8, Position 2; Jerred Price in Super District 8, Position 3; and Benji Smith in Super District 9, Position 1.

• Later last Saturday night (actually early Sunday morning), a massive and unruly crowd materialized in Downtown Memphis, resulting in shots being fired. Eight victims were injured, and an MPD officer was roughed up by out-of-control youths.

The event illuminated the issue of crime as a dominant motif in this year’s election. Mayoral candidates Bonner and Herenton especially have emphasized the importance of the issue and their determination to deal with it.

Fisher would also weigh in on the matter, condemning the violence but calling for long-term community-based alternatives to repressive-suppressive techniques for crime control. (Of note to Flyer readers: This week’s cover story by Chris McCoy also considers such alternatives.)

As a kind of footnote to things, the Shelby County Commission last Monday considered, but deferred for two weeks, action on proposals for restrictions on preemptive traffic stops and use of specialized units by the Sheriff’s Department.

Similar curbs were recently imposed on the MPD by the city council.

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Politics Politics Feature

Who Gets the GOP Vote?

UPDATED: As is generally known, Memphis city elections are not subject to partisan voting. There are no primaries allowing our local Republicans and Democrats to nominate a candidate to carry the party banner.

Nor, in the case of citywide office (mayor or council super districts 8 and 9), does there exist machinery for a runoff election when no candidate for those offices commands a majority of the general election vote.

There are runoff circumstances for districts 1 through 7, each of them a single district contributing to the pastiche of city government, by electing, in effect, a council member to serve a smaller geographical area or neighborhood.

The aforementioned super districts encompass the entire city. Each of them, in theory, represents a half of the city’s population — the western half being predominantly Black, as of 1991, when the first super-district lines were drawn, the eastern half being largely white. (Though population has meanwhile shifted, those distinctions are still more or less accurate.)

Runoffs are prohibited in the super districts as well as in mayoral elections in the city at large because, in the Solomonic judgment of the late U.S. District Judge Jerome Turner, who devised this electoral system in response to citizen litigation, that’s how things should be divided in order to recognize demographic realities while at the same time discouraging efforts to exploit them.

Each citizen of Memphis gets to vote for four council members, one representing the single district of their residence, the other three representing the half of the city in which their race is predominant. Runoffs are permitted in the smaller single districts, where racial factors do not loom either divisive or decisive, while they are prohibited in the larger areas, where, in theory, voters of one race could rather easily league together to elect one of their own (as whites commonly did in the historic past).

Mayoral elections are winner-takes-all, and Willie Herenton’s victory in 1991 as the first elected Black mayor is regarded as having been a vindication of the system.

Got all that?

Yes, it’s a hodgepodge, but it’s what we’ve still got, even though Blacks, a minority then, are a majority now. And, in fact, race is irrelevant in the 2023 mayor’s race, there being no white candidate still participating with even a ghost of a chance of winning.

Political party is the major remaining “it” factor, and the failure of either party to call for primary voting in city elections has more or less nullified it as a direct determinant of the outcome.

But, with the withdrawal last week from the mayoral race of white Republican candidates Frank Colvett and George Flinn, speculation has become rampant as to who, among the nominal Democrats still in the race, might inherit the vote of the city’s Republicans.

Sheriff Floyd Bonner, whose law-and-order posture is expected to appeal to the city’s conservatives?

Downtown Memphis Commission CEO Paul Young, who has several prior Republican primary votes on his record in non-city elections?

Businessman J.W. Gibson, who once was a member of the local Republican steering committee?

Only NAACP president Van Turner and former Mayor Herenton, among serious candidates, are exempt from such speculation, both regarded as being dyed-in-the-wool Democrats.

In a close election, the disposition of the Republican vote, estimated to be 24 percent of the total, could be crucial.

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Politics Politics Feature

Anatomy of a Poll

Several polls of varying reliability have been circulated so far on the subject of the 2023 Memphis mayor’s race. The latest one surfaced last week in the form of an online video released by ex-Memphian Josh Thomas, now a Nashville consultant working on behalf of the mayoral race of Memphis City Councilman Frank Colvett Jr.

The results of that poll, available for examination on Colvett’s Facebook page, are somewhat startling and out of sync with several other surveys conducted earlier by avowedly neutral sources.

The new poll shows former Mayor Willie Herenton leading with 17 percent approval from those polled and Colvett, along with Downtown Memphis Commission CEO Paul Young, tied for second with 14 percent, with no other results indicated for any other candidates.

In previously circulated polls, Colvett had been buried in the single digits along with several other also-rans. To be sure, candidate Young, generally acknowledged these days to have a strong and possibly surging campaign, had also been in the lower digits in those early polls. And Herenton’s numbers are consistent with those reported for him elsewhere.

On the street, Colvett’s reported numbers were greeted with a fair amount of skepticism. Can they be taken seriously? No ancillary information (number surveyed, breakdown of sample, etc.) was released with the poll, which, says Thomas in the video, was taken on July 6th and 7th. The poll was administered by Cygnal, a company described by Thomas as “the most accurate private pollster in the country.”

How private? The company says of itself: “Cygnal serves GOP campaigns, committees, caucuses, and center-right public affairs issue efforts with forward-thinking polling, analytics & targeting.” That would tie in with Colvett’s known prominence in local Republican circles. Indeed, it is generally acknowledged that his starter base is heavily Republican, and the questions have been: Can he hold that base, which is a distinct minority of the whole? And can he, as a political moderate, expand on it?

According to Thomas, those surveyed were asked, quite simply: “If the election were held today, who would you vote for?”

But a key acknowledgement by Thomas is that the question was asked after those surveyed were given “biographies” of the various candidates.

Anyone familiar with political polling would be inclined to associate that procedure with what is called a “push poll” — one which builds a desired outcome into the very form of the questioning. The idea is simple: The better the “biography,” the better the poll numbers. And the skimpier or less positive the bio, the lower would be the numbers.

If the poll is to be taken seriously, its meta-message is obvious. Just as former Mayor Herenton has an impressively locked-in base of support, there also is known to be a significant number of voters who, for fair reasons or foul, have a built-in resistance to the prospect of Herenton’s returning to power.

The Cygnal poll results imply rather directly that, if it’s Herenton you fear, Frank Colvett could be your man. Colvett himself, known to be fair-minded, and, as previously indicated, moderate, would never venture a sentiment like that directly.

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Politics Politics Feature

POLITICS: Decisions, Decisions …

Businessman J.W. Gibson is reportedly getting ready to retool his mayoral campaign with help from veteran political consultant Susan Adler Thorp. Polls indicate that Gibson’s campaign has never really gotten off the ground. Nor has his initial slogan suggesting that Memphis needs a “new tune.”

And the professional respect Gibson enjoys as a result of his long-term philanthropic and developmental activities has not been general enough to have earned him much name recognition with the public. Despite a distinguished and vaguely mayoral appearance, he has also struggled to stand out at the many collective forums and meet-and-greets he has been a presence at.

With just under four months left before election day, Gibson, who has abundant private resources, could still make an impact, but only if he finds a viable message and can popularize it. Almost uniquely in the crowded mayoral field, he has expressed openness to the idea of a possible property tax increase.

• Among observers who are closely following the mayoral race, there is a difference of opinion as to whether there are three main contenders so far — Sheriff Floyd Bonner, Downtown Memphis Commission CEO Paul Young, and NAACP president and former County Commissioner Van Turner — or four —those three, plus former longtime Mayor Willie Herenton.

Everyone acknowledges that Herenton, who has led at least one unofficial poll, has a dependable voting bloc, based on his long mayoral tenure and, especially, his precedent-establishing 1991 victory as the city’s first elected Black chief executive. Some wonder if his budget, expected to be minimal, will allow for a serious stretch run.

Bonner and Young won’t have such worries. Both have cash-on-hand holdings in the vicinity of half a million dollars. And Turner, whose purse at this point is roughly a third of that amount, has a long-established base of dependable supporters.

• As has long been expected, former City Councilman Berlin Boyd has pulled a petition to run for the open Super District 8, Position 3, seat held for the past two terms by Council Chairman Martavius Jones, who is term-limited.

Boyd’s name had also turned up on the petition list for Super District 8, Position 1 — something the once and possibly future councilman attributes to an error by one of his staff members. Boyd says he never had any intention of running against the 8-1 incumbent, JB Smiley, a friend, and he has done the paperwork to nullify that prospect. (He also denies a previously published report that he might take another crack at District 7, currently occupied by Michalyn Easter-Thomas, who in 2019 ousted then-incumbent Boyd in a runoff.)

Boyd has, however, considered the “back-up” idea of running for Super District 8, Position 2, a seat being eyed by several others, who take seriously a rumor that incumbent Cheyenne Johnson will not end up being a candidate for re-election. But, he says, “I’m 99 percent sure I’ll be running for Position 3.” Eight other people have so far pulled petitions for Position 3.

• The aforementioned Smiley is one of four current holders of super district seats who, as of early this week, did not yet have declared opposition. The other fortunate ones were Chase Carlisle in Super District 9, Position 1, Ford Canale in 9-2, and Jeff Warren in 9-3.

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Politics Politics Beat Blog

2023 Sidney Chism Picnic

Saturday saw the latest installation of longtime political figure Sidney Chism’s annual picnic, a fixture on the election landscape for a generation. The event, held at park grounds off Horn Lake Road, draws candidates, observers, political junkies, and kids of all ages. It’s a can’t-miss.

Here are some of the scenes from this year’s picnic, captured before the rains came in early afternoon. Several late arrivals, including a majority of the candidates running for mayor, came, were seen, and hoped to conquer, but are not pictured.

Host Sidney Chism greets District 3 Council candidate Yolanda Cooper-Sutton from his cart.
Mayoral candidate J.W. Gibson at Chism picnic
Mayoral candidate Paul Young greets employees of register’s office at Chism picnic.
District 3 Council candidate Pearl Walker at Chism picnic
District 3 Council candidate Towanna Murphy at Chism picnic
District 3 Council candidate James Kirkwood at Chism picnic
DA Steve Mulroy schmoozing at Chism picnic
Kevin Carter and David Upton at Chism picnic
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Politics Politics Feature

Two Steps Forward

As of last week, when the Shelby County Election Commission began making candidate petitions available for would-be office-seekers, the 2023 Memphis city election can be said to have officially started.

In reality, numerous campaigns, both for mayor and for city council, have been proceeding for some time. The mayoral field would seem to be all but set, and council hopefuls, many of whom have been lying back, waiting to be sure about the council’s still unofficial district lines, have begun filling in the blanks as well.

Two candidates for mayor — both destined, one way or another, to have a major impact on the election results — chose last week to enact rollouts of a sort. One was 83-year-old former Mayor Willie Herenton, who had a campaign kickoff event last Thursday at the University of Memphis Holiday Inn on Central. The other, some 40 years his junior, was Downtown Memphis Commission CEO Paul Young, who formally opened his campaign headquarters last Saturday at Poplar Plaza.

Herenton is the senior eminence of this race (or, in some quarters, where his tenure wore too long, the éminence grise). He was elected mayor in five previous elections, the first being his 1991 epochal victory as the city’s first elected African-American chief executive. For better or for worse, his name is known to virtually all Memphians who pay attention to their social or civic circumstances.

Young is, by contrast, a newcomer to most Memphians, despite having held numerous positions of importance in city and county government. Though he has significant backing among the city elite and is the leading fundraiser among all mayoral candidates, with cash on hand of roughly half a million dollars, Young acknowledges being a relative unknown to the public at large. In an effort to build up his name recognition, he has dutifully attended almost all the preliminary events, both large and small, that have been held so far for mayoral candidates.

In his own words last Saturday, “We can’t just play this as politics as usual … just to [select] whatever name you know. … We’ve got to do it differently this time. … History is made when people step up to the plate, to do the thing that needs to be done to elevate our community.

“I’ll say it again. It’s not about the name, you know. It’s about what results those individuals created. As a result of the work that they’ve done in their present or previous role. I could care less about politics. I want to do the work. … For the past 20 years, I’ve been doing the work. I’ve been the person behind the scenes doing the work. It’s time to step up. I represent the next generation.”

Herenton, too, spoke of a “New Path” for the city and promised to unveil this week a package of proposals, including one for a “multi-million dollar restorative justice campus.” He pledged a “tough love” approach to public safety and advocated that the council repeal several recent actions restricting police actions.

As a token of his “strong-mayor” attitude, Herenton reminded his listeners that he had as mayor resisted calls for a public referendum on the financial deal that brought the NBA Grizzlies, “a great team,” to Memphis.

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Of Shows and No-Shows

By now, the much-ballyhooed first of two mayoral forums to be conducted by the Daily Memphian has come and gone. The five billed participants at Monday night’s event at the Halloran Centre were Paul Young, Michelle McKissack, J.W. Gibson, Frank Colvett, and Karen Camper.

The fact is, only one of these participants can be ranked among the leaders at this early pre-petition stage of the mayoral race. That would be Downtown Memphis Commission CEO Young, who is indisputably the most successful fundraiser among all the candidates.

Young reported $432,434.97 on hand in his second-quarter financial disclosure, just outdoing Sheriff Floyd Bonner, who reported $400,139.12. Young is also known to have significant support among the city’s business and civic social elite, who make up a large percentage of the donor class.

At this juncture, the main disadvantage facing Young vis-à-vis rival Bonner is a fairly enormous name-recognition gap favoring the sheriff, who has out-polled every other contestant for whatever position in each of the last two Shelby County elections.

Clearly, the need to narrow this gap is one reason, along with his undoubted public-spiritedness, that impels Young to take part, along with other relatively unknown candidates, in every public forum that comes along.

Keeping their distance from such events so far are Bonner and Willie Herenton, the even better-known former longtime mayor. Almost as hesitant to appear at such affairs has been local NAACP president and former County Commissioner Van Turner, who, like the other two, was absent Monday night, as he had been at a recent mayoral forum at First Congregational Church.

Turner, also, can claim a respectable degree of prior name recognition, and he brought into the mayoral race a fairly well-honed constituency among the city’s center to center-left voters.

The relevance of all this to this week’s forum, and to other such opportunities for exposure that may come along before petitions can be drawn on May 22nd, should be obvious. Those who need to enhance their share of public attention are likely to be attendees; those who feel more secure in their familiarity to the electorate may not be.

To be sure, both Bonner and Turner pleaded the fact of previously scheduled fundraising events as reasons for their absence on Monday night. A reliable rule of thumb in politics is that the existence of “prior commitments” can always be adduced to explain nonparticipation in a particular event.

Still, to win, it is necessary to be an active competitor, and Bonner, Herenton, and Turner, who — not coincidentally — topped the results in the only poll that has been made public so far, can be expected to rev things up in fairly short order. Bonner and Turner have been stalled somewhat by their ongoing litigation against a five-year residency requirement posited by the Election Commission.

That matter may be effectively resolved in Chancellor JoeDae Jenkins’ court at a scheduled May 1st hearing.

Herenton, meanwhile, has habitually stonewalled multi-candidate appearances throughout his long public career — out of apparent pride as much as anything else.

None of the foregoing is meant to suggest that other candidates, including the five involved Monday night, can’t break out of the pack. Politics is notoriously unpredictable.

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Politics Politics Feature

In the Picture

As was teased in this space last week, second-quarter financial disclosures of the Memphis mayoral candidates were expected to come due. And they did, roughly a day after last week’s issue went to print.

The contents of the disclosures have since been bruited about here and there and have been subjected to analysis. In many — perhaps most — ways, the numbers conform to advance expectations. The leaders now, in the vital metric of cash on hand, are the same two who led the field in first-quarter disclosures in January: Downtown Memphis Commission CEO Paul Young, with $432,434.97 cash on hand, and Sheriff Floyd Bonner, with $404,139.12.

Local NAACP president Van Turner was still very much in the game, with $154,633.46, as was the largely self-funding developer J.W. Gibson, with $254,015.55.

The real surprise was former Memphis-Shelby County Schools board chair Michelle McKissack, who raised $101,712.95 — in less than two months of a declared candidacy, she notes — and has $79,164.95 on hand.

Clearly, McKissack has some catching up to do but justly takes pride in her results, given her relatively late start. She and the other candidates have some time, given that candidate petitions cannot even be drawn until May 22nd. Election day is October 5th, some five months away.

In a video tweet last week, McKissack alleged about some of the media coverage that “there are those in the city who don’t want to acknowledge that it’s actually possible for a woman to be mayor of Memphis.” She focused on an unnamed article “that really touted, just, you know, highlighting the men in this race.”

Both the point of view and even some of the language in McKissack’s tweet were reminiscent of attitudes expressed by former female candidates for mayor — notably Carol Chumney, now a Circuit Court Judge, who ran for Memphis mayor twice, finishing a competitive second place to incumbent Willie Herenton in a three-way race in 2007.

Herenton, out of office now for 14 years, is a candidate again for his former office, where he served for 17 years. He and others — including City Councilman Frank Colvett, state House minority leader Karen Camper, former County Commissioner James Harvey, and former TV judge Joe Brown — will doubtless make some waves, one way or another.

Tami Sawyer (Photo: Tami Sawyer | Facebook)

• Another former mayoral candidate, Tami Sawyer, who had a singularly devoted following for her reform platform in 2019, is back on the scene after a work sojourn for Amazon in both D.C. and California. She tweeted, “Yes, I’m back in Memphis for good … I am not running for office in 2023. But y’all gonna still see me deep in this work.”

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Bottom Lines

First-quarter deadline for Memphis mayoral candidates’ financial disclosures was March 31st, with reports due at the state Registry of Election Finance by April 10th, Monday of this week. It will take a while for all of them to be collated and made public, but, when available, presumably this week, they will be a useful key to the competitive status of various candidates.

Likely leader in revenues raised and on hand will be Downtown Memphis Commission CEO Paul Young, who has been the beneficiary of several recent big-ticket fundraisers. Two of Young’s main competitors — NAACP president and former Commissioner Van Turner and Shelby County Sheriff Floyd Bonner — will probably show lesser revenues than might ordinarily be expected.

The obvious reason for that is such public doubt as has recently been raised by uncertainties regarding possible residency requirements for Memphis mayor — though the Shelby County Election Commission has, amid litigation by Turner and Bonner, removed a note from its website citing an opinion from former SCEC chair Robert Meyers proclaiming a requirement for a five-year prior residency in the city. Meyers based his opinion on a city-charter provision dating back to 1895.

Turner, Bonner, and former Mayor Willie Herenton, who is not known to have launched a significant fundraising campaign, have all maintained residencies outside the city at some point in the past five years. Herenton is not a party to the ongoing litigation, regarding which separate suits by Bonner and Turner challenging the Meyers opinion and seeking clarification have been combined in the court of Chancellor JoeDae Jenkins.

During a status conference on the suits last week, Jenkins established May 1st as a date for ruling on the litigation. He had previously rejected a motion by attorneys for the SCEC to include the city of Memphis as a codefendant along with the Commission. Jenkins decided that the city had not officially endorsed the Meyers opinion, though city attorney Jennifer Sink had forwarded it to the SCEC. For her part, Sink has said she has no intention of formally claiming the Meyers opinion as the city’s own.

• In calling a special meeting of the County Commission for this Wednesday on the issue of reappointing the expelled state Representative Justin J. Pearson to the House District 86 seat, Commission chair Mickell Lowery made his own sentiments evident.

After noting that he was “required to make decisions as a leader,” Lowery said, inter alia, “I believe the expulsion of state Representative Justin Pearson was conducted in a hasty manner without consideration of other corrective action methods. I also believe that the ramifications for our great state are still yet to be seen. … Coincidentally, this has directly affected me as I too reside in state House District 86. I am amongst the over 68,000 citizens [actually, 78,000] who were stripped of having a representative at the state due to the unfortunate outcome of the state assembly’s vote.”

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Part One: Memphis Mayoral Candidate Update

Amid legal developments that could make it a potentially pivotal week in the Memphis mayoral race, it might be useful to hazard a brief synopsis of how the various campaigns are stacking up.

Floyd Bonner: The Shelby County Sheriff launched his candidacy last fall with good prospects of putting potential rivals in the dust.
Bonner had handily won two successive county races, leading all candidates in vote totals both times. The fact that crime loomed as the likely major issue to be faced by city voters undoubtedly boosted his profile.

Almost immediately, Bonner attracted the same kind of influential bipartisan support that he enjoyed in his races for sheriff. His campaign team actually envisioned amassing enough cash reserves early enough to dissuade potential rivals from running. And indeed, with first-quarter receipts of some $300,000 this year, and with good numbers anticipated in the soon-t-be second quarter disclosures, he has delivered. But Bonner’s then anticipated opponents didn’t scare.

Paul Young: The Downtown Memphis Commission CEO matched Bonner dollar for dollar and even exceeded the sheriff somewhat. This was the result of months and even years of advance preparation and of a robust standing with the city’s business and civic elite. Young is thought to be the preferred candidate of the current city administration, though incumbent Mayor Jim Strickland is himself conspicuously neutral so far. He is also thought to be ahead in fundraising at this point, whether marginally or to larger degree.

Young’s major problem is that, however well he rates with insiders, he still lacks much name recognition with the public at large. In the long term, his campaign money will have to buy that.

In the short term, Young stands to benefit hugely if the Election Commission’s provisional ruling requiring a five-year prior residency in Memphis — one that would disqualify candidates Bonner, Van Turner, and Willie Herenton — is upheld. A ruling is expected shortly in Chancery Court. “Either way is fine with me,” Young said at an event Saturday. Sure.

Van Turner: The mayoral ambitions of the former Shelby County Commission chairman and current NAACP head have been known for years, and he is generally respected across the political spectrum, though his most significant following  is among Democratic Party regulars — a fact not to be discounted, given the demographic edge demonstrated by the party in recent local elections.

Turner has struggled to keep up with the fundraising totals of Bonner and Young, though he was in the ballpark on the first quarterly report, with some $150,000 raised. Since then, he has figured prominently, in national as well as local media, in public reckonings of the tragic death of Tyre Nichols at the hands of Memphis police. This kind of free media is also not to be discounted, though its shelf life is unknown.

Turner’s suit challenging the Election Commission ruling on residency is one of two  (the other is Bonner’s). The outcome is, of course, crucial.

Willie Herenton: The former longtime mayor is also vulnerable on the residency score on account of a brief sojourn in Collierville — an ironic fact, given that 30 years ago he personally created the sprawling (and enduring) Banneker Estates development in south Memphis.

There is in any case no questioning the historical cachet of the first elected Black mayor in Memphis history, one who served 17 years and claimed several achievements — notably his leadership of a defiant 1997 effort that successfully ended in a legal reprieve for Memphis vis–a-vis “toy town” legislation that would have blocked the city’s legitimate avenues for expansion.

Herenton remains a controversial figure, as much because of his strong and sometimes disputatious personality as for any lingering racial animus among the city’s Old Guard. But he can claim a substantially sized loyalist base in the inner city and has to be reckoned with in a crowded, winner-take-all field.

(Next: Part Two: J.W. Gibson heads a second tier with potential for rising.)