Brent Taylor (Photo: Senator Brent Taylor
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It surely hasn’t gone unnoticed that state government is continuing to flex its muscles vis-à-vis local government in Memphis and Shelby County.
Officials aligned with the administration in Nashville are threatening outright takeover of the Memphis-Shelby County Schools (MSCS) system at the same time that state Senator Brent Taylor and helpers continue to implement their would-be coup d’état against the county judiciary and the office of District Attorney Steve Mulroy.
In the case of MSCS, the sudden out-of-nowhere power struggle between an apparent school board majority and first-year superintendent Marie Feagins has prompted what amounts to an ultimatum from Governor Bill Lee and the presiding officers of the state legislative chambers: Keep Feagins or else!
And Taylor has enlisted the same officials in his campaign to oust Mulroy, involving them in his bill of particulars against the DA at a press conference last Thursday that followed by a day a quickly improvised “summit” called by the senator to consider the case for a new crime lab in Memphis, something Mulroy has put forth as a major need for facilitating effective local law enforcement.
The list of invitees to the crime lab conference, styled as a “roundtable discussion,” included Tennessee Bureau of Investigation director David Rausch and a virtually complete roster of public figures, state and local, who could be considered stakeholders in the matter of law enforcement.
There was one glaring omission, however: DA Mulroy, who was not only not invited; he was not even informed of the meeting, which was held at the City Hall of Germantown and concluded with Taylor suggesting an ultimate consensus that processing of local crime data in sensitive cases could be easily expedited via an existing crime lab in Jackson, obviating the need for a new Memphis lab.
A cynic could be pardoned for assuming that the entire thrust of the meeting in Germantown was to undermine the absent DA’s call for such a lab.
There was no doubt about the senator’s minimizing motive in his press conference the next day at the Memphis Police Association headquarters. It was overtly to “reveal the causes to be considered for the removal of District Attorney Steve Mulroy.”
Taylor’s bill of particulars against Mulroy was a duke’s mixture of complaints, ranging from prerogatives asserted by the DA that could be, and in several cases were, countered by ad hoc state legislation to innovative procedures pursued by Mulroy, some of them reflecting purposes that Taylor acknowledged sharing himself.
A case of the latter was an agreement reached by the DA with Juvenile Court Judge Tarik Sugarmon to allow trial court judges access to Juvenile Court records. Taylor had sponsored a bill to do just that in last year’s session of the General Assembly.
A similar instance was Taylor’s inclusion in his list of Mulroy’s declared support of gun safety referenda placed by the Memphis City Council on the 2024 general election ballot and overwhelmingly passed.
“Many of us” could sympathize with the referenda points, Taylor said, but his point was that the referenda — calling for local ordinances on behalf of gun permits, an assault rifle ban, and judicial confiscation of firearms in at-risk instances — ran counter to state law.
Sponsors of the referenda had made it clear that they called for “trigger” laws that could be enforced only if and when state law might be amended to allow them.
And there’s a further anomaly here, given Taylor’s stated goal to “Make Memphis Mattter” and safeguard the city from crime.
One has to wonder why he isn’t pursuing an altogether different strategy, one calling for a legislative “carve-out” of Shelby County from current state law prohibiting the immediate implementation of the ordinances called for by the referenda.
Such a course would be consistent with the principle of home rule; it would also be supportive of a position taken by Mulroy’s Republican opponent in the 2022 DA’s race, then-incumbent Amy Weirich, who inveighed against the iniquitous consequences of the state’s increasingly permissive stripping away of gun safety regulations.
So, like, apparently, 2025 is around the corner. Around the corner of what? From what? That’s just semantics. And at the Flyer, we’re basically already in 2025. That’s just how our deadlines are — always working a week ahead, or maybe two days ahead. Because of that, we can see into the future. Not really, but here are some of our predictions/expectations/hopes for the new year in Memphis.
In the Headlines
Police Reforms
It’s easy to predict that reforms for the Memphis Police Department (MPD) will dominate headlines at least in the early part of 2025.
The U.S. Department of Justice’s (DOJ) blistering review of the agency said police here used excessive force (which included tons of Tasers and pepper spray), discriminated against Black residents, and used harsh tactics against children. The review came after the beating death of Tyre Nichols at the hands of MPD officers in 2023.
The DOJ wants to enter into a consent decree with the city. This would install federal monitors to watch and make sure reforms are moving ahead. But, so far, local leaders, including Memphis Mayor Paul Young, have said they don’t want the monitors for various reasons, including the fact that consent decrees cost too much money.
Young has promised to reform MPD in-house. Criminal justice reform advocates say they want the DOJ oversight because the police should not police themselves.
The need for reform comes, too, as the city prepares to pay what could be a $500-million verdict in the civil suit to the family of Nichols’ for his death.
Photo: Frank Gaertner | Dreamstime.com
Cannabis Fight
Cannabis will certainly be in Tennessee news in 2025.
Rules that would ban smokeable products containing THCA were issued from the Tennessee Department of Agriculture (TDA) in January 2024. Industry leaders fought the rules all last year. A lawsuit on the matter was pending as of press time.
TDA says THCA goes over the legal THC limit when it’s burned or smoked. This gets consumers high, which is why a lot of conservatives don’t want “intoxicating” cannabis products. Their ability to get consumers high is why the industry says these products — allowed by laws passed by the legislature — are so popular and are a major portion of their business.
Those industry leaders complained that bureaucrats, not elected officials, made the new rules. So expect legislation from the Tennessee General Assembly when they reconvene in January 2025.
Pissed About Reappraisals
Also, expect your property taxes to go up — maybe way up.
January will bring a new property tax appraisal in Shelby County. And Shelby County Property Assessor Melvin Burgess began warning locals about this in 2024, maybe to try to get folks used to the idea.
In an August news release, Burgess said data showed property values increasing. That will likely mean a “significant increase in tax assessments” for homeowners. And that means higher taxes.
Add higher assessments to the Memphis City Council’s new 49-cent property tax rate hike approved in 2024, and it could mean outrage when those tax bills hit mailboxes.
Photo: Ford Co.
BlueOval City
More concern and hand-wringing is likely on deck for Ford’s BlueOval City project next year.
Expectations were high when Ford unveiled the project in 2021. The $5.6 billion manufacturing facility in Tennessee was the largest investment in the state’s history. Since then crews have been hard at work raising the massive plant on six square miles of West Tennessee about an hour from Memphis.
However, global electric vehicle (EV) demand softened. While the automaker planned to begin production of its all-electric Ford Lightning truck here next year, it pushed production back to 2027. In that time, the company awaits lower-cost battery technology and a higher demand for EVs in general. In that time, too, worries will persist about the future of Ford in West Tennessee. Still, the company did pull Santa behind a Lightning in the recent Brownsville Christmas parade. — Toby Sells
MATA
2024 will be remembered as the year in which conversation regarding transit consistently found its way to the forefront. And Memphis Area Transit Authority (MATA) has faced a tumultuous year — from the revelation of the $60 million deficit that the agency had been operating under, to the route and staff cuts, to the entire board’s dismissal.
The new board decided to pause proposed changes until February 2025. While this temporarily stalled one problem, questions over MATA’s future and leadership prevail.
On Tuesday, December 17th, the MATA board voted to continue negotiating a contract that could lead to temporary leadership changes. If approved, TransPro employees would take over as interim CEO, CFO, and COO for eight months. The proposal prompted several questions from board members, but they voted to form a committee to gain more clarity.
Looking ahead, the board will need to address the February 2025 changes which could lead to service cuts and layoffs. The agency will also need to identify more funding sources, while potentially welcoming a new team of leadership. — Kailynn Johnson
Political Forecast
The coming year happens to be the one year out of every four-year cycle in which there are no major elections scheduled in Memphis/Shelby County. But that is not to suggest that there will not be intense political activity. In fact, potential candidates for the county, state, and federal offices in the elections of 2026 will be working feverishly during the year to organize and declare their campaigns. At stake will be contests for Shelby County mayor, to succeed the term-limited Mayor Lee Harris, and for the 13 members of the county commission, as well as races for governor, the state legislature, Congress, and the U.S. Senate seat now held by incumbent Republican Bill Hagerty.
Announcements of candidacies for these offices should be forthcoming early in 2025.
There will be one more major attempt by Governor Bill Lee and his allies in the Republican legislative supermajority to pass comprehensive school voucher legislation when the Tennessee General Assembly reconvenes in January. Preliminary estimates are that this time the measure to extend taxpayer-funded private school stipends statewide has good chances for passage. Also to be expected are further efforts by GOP members to impose stricter controls (or more severe usurpations) on the law enforcement infrastructure of Shelby County. It remains to be seen if GOP state Senator Brent Taylor gains any traction in his effort to seek legislative removal of Shelby County DA Steve Mulroy.
Both major political parties in Shelby County will be selecting new chairs, the Republicans in January, the Democrats in April. State GOP chair Scott Golden of Jackson was reelected in December, but Democrats will be choosing a new leader in January to succeed Hendrell Remus. One of the major candidates is state Representative Gloria Johnson of Knoxville, who ran unsuccessfully for the U.S. Senate in November.
The Shelby County Commission will face the new year not only with some last-minute updates in its funding priorities, but with a stepped-up formula for establishing a budget and meting out allocations. In an effort to adhere to previous commitments to build two new schools for Memphis-Shelby County Schools, Mayor Harris and the commission will be seeking means to compensate for lower than anticipated revenue aid from the state government.
Both local governments may come in for support and new modes for inter-governmental cooperation through the aegis of a newly formed and privately endowed ad hoc organization called More for Memphis. But the mechanics and prospects for such an arrangement remain obscure, for the moment. — Jackson Baker
Memphis Grizzlies guard Ja Morant (12) dunks the ball. (Photo: Wes Hale)
On the Roster
One year without playoff basketball for our Memphis Grizzlies is quite enough, thank you. A trio of healthy star guards (Ja Morant, Desmond Bane, Marcus Smart) and the addition of a towering rookie center (Zach Edey) have the Grizzlies near the top of the NBA’s Western Conference standings. Better yet, the Grizz are among the top scoring teams in the Association, averaging more than 120 points per game. Where might this take a franchise that’s reached the conference finals only once in three decades? Go back to that word: healthy.
Morant only played in nine games a season ago (he served a lengthy suspension before his shoulder injury). Smart only played in 20. Bane barely played half the season (42 games). The end result was a 27-55 campaign. Morant is an All-NBA talent, Smart a former Defensive Player of the Year, and Bane an All-Star-to-be. If they stay on the floor through April, Memphis could well reverse that 2023-24 record and earn a top-four seed for the postseason. Can the West be won? Five different teams have gone to the Finals out of the Western Conference the last five seasons. There’s no current behemoth that would be considered unbeatable in May. The NBA Finals at FedExForum? Let’s believe.
At the college level, coach Penny Hardaway’s Memphis Tigers captured attention in November with an upset of Connecticut — the two-time defending national champions — at the Maui Invitational, bringing enough attention to climb into the Top 25 (16th) before an upset at home to Arkansas State. Is this another fall tease like the 2023-24 season, the Tigers setting up an immense fan base for a middling conference schedule? The answer is in the hands of two more star guards: transfers PJ Haggerty and Tyrese Hunter. A pair of glass-cleaning rim protectors — Dain Dainja and Moussa Cissé — give Memphis something it didn’t have a year ago, suggesting a repeat of the winter blues may be unlikely. A December upset of Clemson on the road and a less-than-intimidating American Athletic Conference are positive signs for a return to the NCAA tournament.
There will be life after basketball season for Memphis sports. Baseball America’s Minor League Pitcher of the Year, Quinn Mathews, will likely start the 2025 season with the Memphis Redbirds. Another pair of rising stars — pitcher Tink Hence and infielder JJ Wetherholt — have AutoZone Park in their sights. The Redbirds hope to end a postseason drought that dates back to 2018. The club will open the season with an exhibition against the parent St. Louis Cardinals on March 24th.
On the gridiron, the Memphis Tigers will enter their 2025 season on a pair of impressive streaks. The program has reached bowl eligibility 11 consecutive seasons and has scored at least 20 points in 40 consecutive games, tops in the country. Antwann Hill, the highest-ranked quarterback ever signed by Memphis, will don blue and gray for the first time and hope to replicate the success enjoyed by the departed record-setting Seth Henigan. One nugget Hill could grab that Henigan didn’t: a conference championship. — Frank Murtaugh
Mickey 17
Coming Soon
It’s not so much that 2025 is getting off to a slow start as 2024 finished strong. Christmas week brought a torrent of new releases beyond the usual awards season crush. So you can spend your first week of dry January catching up with titles like Disney’s Mufasa: The Lion King, directed by Moonlight’s Barry Jenkins; the Bob Dylan biopic A Complete Unknown, starring Timothée Chalamet and directed by Walk The Line’s James Mangold; and Babygirl, an erotic thriller starring Nicole Kidman. I will never understand the decision to release Robert Egger’s vampire creepfest Nosferatu on Christmas instead of two weeks before Halloween, but you should probably see it if you’re into that kind of thing.
It’s not until January 10th that we get our first new releases of the new year, and that’s Den of Thieves 2: Pantera starring Gerard Butler and O’Shea Jackson Jr. The next week things start to pick up again with Wolf Man, a Blumhouse horror reboot of the lupine Universal monster. One of Them Days is a buddy comedy with Keke Palmer and SZA, which sounds promising. The month closes out with comedy: You’re Cordially Invited starring Will Ferrell, Reese Witherspoon, and an alligator.
In February, somebody learned the lesson about seasonal programming and scheduled Love Hurts for the week before Valentine’s Day. It’s an action comedy starring Ke Huy Quan and Ariana DeBose. On the holiday proper, we’ve got Bridget Jones: Mad About The Boy and Captain America: Brave New World, a combo which is sure to provoke many lovers’ quarrels over Valentine date night viewing. Then there’s The Monkey from Osgood Perkins, so that’ll be weird/scary. The Day the Earth Blew Up: A Looney Tunes Movie is a sci-fi Bugs Bunny feature aimed directly at me. Paul W. S. Anderson adapts George R.R. Martin’s In the Lost Lands.
March comes in with Ryan Coogler and Michael B. Jordan’s dip into horror, Sinners, and the Zambian black comedy On Becoming a Guinea Fowl. March 14th is a showdown between Steven Soderbergh’s techno thriller Black Bag and Avengers maestros Russo brothers’ The Electric State. Disney’s live action Snow White boasts a screenplay by Greta Gerwig and stars Rachel Zegler as the drowsy protagonist.
In April, many of you will be dragged to A Minecraft Movie. I am eagerly awaiting Bong Joon-ho’s Mickey 17, starring Robert Pattinson as a disposable space hero. Blockbuster season starts in May with Marvel’s first swing of the year, Thunderbolts. The ever-creative Michel Gondry’s first musical, Golden, bows on May 9th, and the millennials’ favorite ambient horror franchise Final Destination: Bloodlines follows on the 16th. The 23rd looks to be a showdown between Tom Cruise’s Mission: Impossible — The Final Reckoning and Disney’s Lilo & Stitch reboot. June’s looking stacked with a John Wick spin-off Ballerina, Pixar’s Elio, the How to Train Your Dragon reboot, and the long awaited zombie capper 28 Years Later. July’s got James Gunn’s Superman, a new Jurassic World film for some reason, and The Smurfs Movie. August closes out the summer with Freakier Friday and the Paul Thomas Anderson crimer One Battle After Another, starring Leonardo DiCaprio.
October brings Tron: Ares, but besides The Black Phone 2, looks pretty slim on horror. In November, we come back after the intermission with Wicked: For Good, and Edgar Wright’s adaptation of Stephen King’s The Running Man. December will be dominated by Avatar: Fire and Ash. Never bet against James Cameron. — Chris McCoy
Yo-Yo Ma (Photo: Courtesy MSO)
Live Music, Ho!
A multitude of ways to ring in the new with live bands await you on New Year’s Eve. Growlers will host Blacklist Union, Line So Thin, and Josey Scott, erstwhile lead singer for Saliva who won acclaim as a solo artist with “Hero” from the Tobey Maguire-led Spider-Man. For something completely different, crooner Gary Johns will serenade Beauty Shop patrons that night, while Bar DKDC sports another incredible singer, Jesse James Davis, from big beats to ballads, not to mention the dance-inducing bounce of Bodywerk. For some Beale bounce and soul, aside from the street party, Eric Gales tops the Rum Boogie bill and the B.B. King All Stars shine at their namesake club. Or tribute bands can bring yesteryear alive, with Louder Than Bombs’ Smiths sounds at B-Side, or Play Some Skynyrd and Aquanet at Lafayette’s Music Room. Prefer freshly spun wax? That’s it’s own kind of live. Try DJ Funktual at Eight & Sand.
Once January is underway, our musical arts institutions resume their 2024-25 seasons. The Iris Collective will present the New York-based Overlook Quartet in The Green Room at Crosstown Arts on January 16th, showcasing music’s healing powers through meditative practice. On the edgier tip, Iris’ March 8th concert at Germantown United Methodist Church, with guest violinist Elena Urioste spotlights works by Max Richter, Astor Piazzolla, and Dmitri Shostakovich. Meanwhile, Germantown Performing Arts Center will present the groovier side of innovation with bassist-composer Meshell Ndegeocello’s show, No More Water: The Gospel of James Baldwin, on January 11th. And Opera Memphis brings Carmen in late January.
The Memphis Symphony Orchestra comes out swinging with its tribute to the “American Maestro,” Leonard Bernstein, on January 18th and 19th, in a program culminating with his Symphonic Dances from West Side Story. Another maestro will be celebrated a month later, when the MSO welcomes guest soloist Yo-Yo Ma February 25th at the Cannon Center of Performing Arts.
On the more rocking side of things, early January marks the 90th anniversary of the birth of Elvis Presley, and Graceland Live will honor it in style with shows spanning January 8th to 10th. Yet the venue has lately embraced some distinctly non-Presley-esque music as well, like the February 6th appearance by 21st-century rockers Theory of a Deadman (an Elvis reference?), experimenting with an unplugged approach to their heavy sound. The unplugged aesthetic will also be celebrated at the Halloran Centre’s Memphis Songwriters Series, with Mark Edgar Stuart welcoming Hannah Blaylock, Rice Drewry, and Raneem Imam on January 6th. Soon after, Sweet Honey in the Rock will bring the raw power of the human voice to the Halloran on January 24th. And speaking of powerful voices, Mary J. Blige will appear “For My Fans” — like some of us who saw her in 1995— at the FedExForum on February 2nd.
But what’s a mere human voice compared to The Man-Machine? Many are laser-focused on Kraftwerk taking over the Overton Park Shell on March 25th. For the Wo-Man-Machine, see the twin-goddess cyber-hybrid multimedia of Marcella Simien and Talibah Safiya at Crosstown Theater January 25th. For everything in between, scan our weekly After Dark listings to see the artists making it happen in our thriving smaller clubs every day. — Alex Greene
The year that just passed promised at various points to be one of dramatic change in this or that public sphere, but such changes as did occur fell way short of transformative.
A new order was unveiled in the city government of Memphis with the inauguration of Mayor Paul Young, for example, but the dominant issue of Young’s first days in office — that of police authority vis-à-vis the citizenry in a climate of anxiety about crime — remains mired in uncertainty a year later.
Young’s reappointment of MPD Police Chief C.J. Davis was rejected by the city council, for example, and she still lacks that validation, serving in an interim capacity. Her second-in-command, Shawn Jones, turned out to be ineligible as a Georgia resident, and the mayor’s announcement of a new public safety director continues unfulfilled, although a “consultant” on the subject got added to the patroll..
The shadow of the Tyre Nichols tragedy lingers on at year’s end, reinforced by harsh judgements levied against the MPD by the U.S. Department of Justice, and state government continues to impose its iron will on local law enforcement, countering the brave stands taken by the city’s voters in referenda intending to assert the city’s own efforts at self-protection.
Those referenda, all essentially meant as rebukes to state policies favoring gun proliferation, were a highlight of the election season, which otherwise saw the status quo reassert itself. Though Democrats held on to their legislative seats in the inner city and fielded plausible candidates in races for the United States Senate and a key legislative district on the city’s suburban edge, the ongoing metamorphosis of Tennessee into red-state Republicanism continued more or less unabated.
In the presidential election, Shelby County reasserted its identity as a Democratic enclave, one of two statewide, the other being Nashville. Unlike the capital city, whose electoral districts had been systematically gerrymandered by the General Assembly’s Republican supermajority, Memphis could still boast a Democratic congressman, Steve Cohen, a fixture in the 9th Congressional District since 2006. The adjoining, largely rural, 8th District, which takes in much of the Memphis metropolitan area, continued to be represented by Republican David Kustoff.
As always, the Memphis area serves as an incubator of individuals with clear potential for further advancement. Among them are Shelby County Mayor Lee Harris, a prolific deviser of developmental projects; state Senator Raumesh Akbari, a shining light both in Nashville and in national Democratic councils; and Justin J. Pearson, a member of the “Tennessee Three” who famously galvanized the case for gun safety legislation in the Tennessee House in 2023 and who added to his laurels with rousing appearances at the 2024 Democratic Convention in Chicago.
Meanwhile, amid rampant speculation as to the identity of contenders for the Tennessee governorship in 2026, two surprising new names were added to the list — those of the state’s two Republican senators, Bill Hagerty and Marsha Blackburn.
An unexpected situation began to simmer late in the year with a virtual mutiny of members of the Memphis-Shelby County Schools system against first-year superintendent Marie Feagins, who was threatened with a rescission of her contract with the board. Action on the matter was postponed until January, but, coming on the heels of the ouster of her predecessor Joris Ray due to a personal scandal, it was clear evidence that major things were amiss on the schools front, which had been a highly politicized landscape a decade earlier and could well become once again.
All in all, 2024 seemed destined to go into the history books as a time of preamble, with weighty circumstances likely to follow in its wake.
The 2024 presidential election results by precinct (Photo: Courtesy Don Johnson)
The Shelby County Republican Party is scheduled to hold its biennial convention in January, and the party has a bona fide chairmanship race on its hands.
One candidate is Bangladesh-born Naser Fazlullah, manager of a food-and-beverages firm and the local party’s vice chair, who has been highly active in Republican outreach efforts over the years. Most unusually, he professes a desire to “bring both parties together” for the benefit of Shelby County and has numerous friends both inside and outside GOP ranks.
The other candidate is insurance executive Worth Morgan, the former city council member who in 2022 ran unsuccessfully for county mayor and had been rumored as a possible candidate for Memphis mayor the next year before deciding not to make the race.
Both candidates are running as the heads of slates for a variety of other party offices.
Morgan’s campaign in particular, run under the slogan “Revive,” is in the kind of high gear normally associated with expensive major public races and has employed a barrage of elaborate online endorsements from such well-known party figures as state Representative Mark White, state Senator Brent Taylor, and conservative media commentator Todd Starnes.
The GOP convention is scheduled for January 25th at The Venue at Bartlett Station.
• Morgan’s choice of the campaign motif “Revival” is interesting. Not too long ago, Republicans dominated county government, but demographics now heavily favor Democrats in countywide voting. As one indication of that, Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris outdistanced the GOP’s Donald Trump in November by a margin of 201,759 to Trump’s 118,917.
In a series of post-election analyses, however, veteran Republican analyst Don Johnson, formerly of Memphis and now with the Stone River Group of Nashville, has demonstrated the GOP’s supremacy virtually everywhere else in Tennessee. He has published precinct-specific maps of statewide election results showing areas won by Trump in red. Patches of Democratic blue show up only sporadically in these graphics and are largely confined to Memphis, Nashville, and the inner urban cores of Knoxville and Chattanooga. Even Haywood County in the southwest corner of the state, virtually the last Democratic stronghold in rural Tennessee, shows high purple on Johnson’s cartography.
Post-election analysis shows something else — a shift of the Republican center of gravity eastward, toward the GOP’s ancestral homeland of East Tennessee. For the first time in recent presidential elections, Republican voting in Knox County outdid the party’s totals in Shelby County.
Looking ahead to the 2026 governor’s race, it is meaningful that a recent poll of likely Republican voters by the Tennessee Conservative News shows two Knoxvillians — Congressman Tim Burchett and Knox County Mayor Glenn Jacobs — leading all other potential candidates.
• The Shelby County Commission ended its year with a full agenda of 89 items, several of which were matters involving schools and school funding. The commissioners navigated that agenda with admirable focus and aplomb, considering that the bombshell news of Tuesday’s scheduled Memphis Shelby-County Schools board meeting regarding the potential voiding of superintendent Marie Feagins’ contract exploded midway through their discussions.
• One of the more inclusive political crowds in recent history showed up weekend before last at Otherlands on Cooper to honor David Upton on the occasion of his 60th birthday. Upton is the proverbial man-behind-the-scenes in Shelby County politics and has had a hand — sometimes openly, sometimes not — in more local elections and civic initiatives than almost anybody else you could name.
With pressure building for potential tax increases in Memphis city government, the outlook for additional aid from state government took a hit Monday, as the State Funding Board acknowledged weaker-than-expected revenues and set a deliberately slow growth rate.
The board, composed of the state’s three constitutional officers and the state finance commissioner, set a growth rate in general fund revenue of 1 percent to 2 percent and total tax growth at 1.25 percent to 2.15 percent for fiscal 2025-26. That is on the heels of an estimated total growth rate projection for fiscal 2024-25 of -1.68 percent to -1.34 percent.
Economic growth has ground down considerably in Tennessee after a double-digit revenue windfall of two years ago. Among other factors, the state is facing a $1.9 billion business tax reduction stemming from legislative approval of Governor Bill Lee’s proposal to eliminate the property portion of the state’s franchise and excise taxes. That move followed additional tax breaks for businesses the previous year. The Department of Revenue has processed nearly $900 million in rebates this year, and more are expected.
On the eve of the oncoming 2025 legislative session, the weak budget outlook could affect lawmakers’ decisions, leaving in the lurch not only localities’ requests for aid but funding requests from state agencies totaling over $4.2 billion. The revenue forecast isn’t expected to come close to matching that figure, even with anticipated federal funds covering some of the costs.
• Two Memphians are finalists to succeed soon-to-be-retiring state Court of Appeals Judge Arnold Goldin of Memphis: Shelby County Circuit Judge Valerie Smith and interim Memphis Chancellor Jim Newsom. A third candidate is Jackson Chancellor Steve Maroney, a former chair of the Madison County Republican Party.
Smith was a member of a three-judge chancery court panel that dismissed a lawsuit challenging the legality of the state’s school voucher program. The decision was later reversed by the Court of Appeals.
Newsom was named in 2015 to a Chancery Court position by former Governor Bill Haslam but was defeated for re-election in 2016 by current Chancellor JoeDae Jenkins. He was reappointed interim chancellor this past summer by Governor Lee to assume the duties of Chancellor Jim Kyle, who has been disabled by illness.
• The three gun-safety measures approved resoundingly by Memphis voters earlier this month via ballot referenda have predictably come under legal challenge. The Tennessee Firearms Association has filed a lawsuit in Shelby County Circuit Court seeking to block city government from activating the measures.
In a sense, the gun-lobby group’s suit is pointless, in that backers of the referenda conceded that voter approval of the measures was conditional on the will and pleasure of state government, which had made clear that state policy at this point would disallow the implementation of the three measures.
State House Speaker Cameron Sexton had angrily opposed the referenda as antithetical to state law and threatened to retaliate by cutting Memphis off from various state-shared revenues if the measures were enacted.
The measures, certified for the ballot by the city council, would re-institute a requirement locally for gun-carry permits, ban the sale of assault weapons, and enable the local judiciary to impose red-flag laws allowing confiscation of weapons from individuals certified as risks to public safety.
Mindful of Sexton’s attitude, backed by Governor Lee, the Shelby County Election Commission originally acted to remove the referendum measures from the November ballot, but they were approved for the ballot by Chancellor Melanie Taylor Jefferson.
• It begins to look as though the beleaguered Shelby County Clerk Wanda Halbert will survive various ouster attempts and will survive in office until the election of 2026, when she will be term-limited.
Her latest reprieve came from Circuit Court Judge Felicia Corbin-Johnson, who disallowed an ouster petition from attorney Robert Meyers, ruling that such an action had to be pursued by Shelby County Attorney Marlinee Iverson, who had recused herself.
Judge Corbin-Johnson had previously disallowed an ouster attempt from Hamilton County District Attorney Coty Wamp, who was acting as a special prosecutor.
In the week since the end of the 2024 presidential campaign, various experts, partisans, and pundits have been holding forth on the meaning of it all.
Well, with your indulgence, it’s my time for a little thumb-sucking. Really, I just wonder how this new order is supposed to work. The incoming Trump administration is pledged, as its first order of business, to expel somewhere between 2 and 20 million undocumented immigrants in what the president-elect has promised will be “the largest mass deportation in this nation’s history.”
Probably a majority of those being targeted are embedded to some degree in the fabric of society — as mothers and fathers and sons and daughters and students and toilers (significantly, in that last category, as taxpayers).
Those Haitians in Springfield, Ohio, who became the bane of Republican rhetoric during the campaign, were not here as scavengers of dogs and cats and geese, nor is there any reason to believe they performed as such. They were not border-jumpers, by the way, but nose-to-the-grindstone workers legally imported to do local infrastructure jobs that native-born sorts wouldn’t touch.
Remember all those new houses that went up during the building boom of the ’90s? To a substantial degree, the grunt work on them was done by Mexicans, most of them undocumented, to be sure.
After the deportation of all these willing hands, there is sure to be some serious attrition within a labor market that is arguably under-strength already.
And what about the sheer expense of such a massive operation, estimated to be as high as $315 billion, and the human costs of all this forced dislocation?
There are few parallels for mass deportations on such a formidable scale, most of them stained by controversy, disrepute, or worse — the Turkish expulsion of Armenians, the German boxcars of Jewish victims eastward to death camps in World War II (and the retributive exodus of that country’s own civilians, driven in the other direction by Russian tanks), the Nakba of Palestinians in 1948, the ethnic cleansings of Yugoslavia in 1992.
Hyperbole? Maybe. But that’s the name I myself would give to the whole imagined immigrant scare.
Compromise. Consensus. Those are indispensable qualities of the democratic process, indeed, of the human contract itself. And there is no sign of them as concepts of this plan — no indication even of a reliable means of distinguishing between the rank and file of the immigrant population and the relative few malefactors that may lurk within them. Nor of an inclination to apply such means.
No provision to earn future citizenship for the long-term residents whose worth as permanent members of the American body politic has already been demonstrated by their conduct and contributions to society. On top of it all is the expressed intent of the incoming administration to renounce that traditional birthright of citizenship that is automatically conferred on those born here.
And the most flagrant cheat of the whole thing? These all-too-disposable migrants are here by express invitation. Latinos in the main, they are — man, woman, and child — the blood brothers and sisters of all the upstart populations that have come to America before them — the Teutons and Anglo-Saxons and Jews and Italians and Slavs and Irish and Asians who, amid unimaginable hardship and life-and-death circumstance, answered the call of one Emma Lazarus, the poet whose words adorn the Statue of Liberty in the beckoning waters of New York harbor:
“… Give me your tired, your poor,
Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free,
The wretched refuse of your teeming shore.
Send these, the homeless, tempest-tost to me,
I lift my lamp beside the golden door!”
Keeping that lamp lit for others, not snuffing it out, should be the concern of those of us fortunate to find ourselves secure behind that door.
This week on the Memphis Flyer Podcast, political columnist Jackson Baker and Chris McCoy talk about the election and try to come to grips with what just happened. Check it out on YouTube.
The 2024 election season had its share of both suspense and drama.
That was certainly true of the quadrennial national election for president (arguably the most momentous one since the Civil War), which went down to the wire and frazzled millions of nerve endings before a winner could be discerned.
As all prognostications had it in advance, the presidential picture seemed headed for a resolution later than election night itself. Such opaqueness as lingered in the vote totals abruptly dissolved by the morning’s light, however. Shockingly, Donald J . Trump was back. With a vengeance.
At the center of the suspense had been the three so-called “blue wall” states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. It was presumed that a victory for Democrat Kamala Harris in all three of these habitually Democratic states would give her the presidency, but just barely. A victory for former GOP president Trump in any of them could drastically derail that prognosis. In the event, he appears to have won them all, as he did in 2016.
Kamala Harris (Official White House Photo by Lawrence Jackson)Donald J. Trump (Official White House Photo by Shealah Craighead)
Nor was drama absent from the local side of the ballot. There is little prospect of the local results being challenged, as is always possible with the presidential numbers, but their effect may linger and, in some cases, simmer.
This is especially true of the series of referenda that Memphis voters were asked to pass judgment on. As of late Tuesday evening, election commission totals had all the referenda winning handily.
The most significant ones — the outcome of which was never much doubted — had set city against state and enraged the guardians of statehouse authority well in advance of the individual items receiving a single vote.
In brief, the offending referenda items of Ordinance 5908, asked city residents to approve (1) restoration of permits for the right to carry firearms, (2) a ban on the sale of assault weapons in the city, and (3) a “red flag” proviso empowering the local judiciary to confiscate the weapons of demonstrably risky individuals.
All of the items are “trigger laws,” to be activated only when and if state law should permit them.
Even so, the Republican Speaker of the state House of Representatives, Cameron Sexton, had made bold to threaten the city of Memphis with loss of state-shared revenues unless the offending referendum package — unanimously approved by the city council — was withdrawn from the ballot.
That was enough to make the Shelby County Election Commission blanch, but the council itself was not cowed and, led by Chairman JB Smiley Jr., sued to have the measures restored. Chancellor Melanie Taylor Jefferson obliged.
As did Memphis voters, in their turn. All three questions of Referendum 5908 passed by gigantic majorities of 100,00 votes or more.
Other referenda passed on Tuesday would: strike down the city’s existing ban of runoffs in at-large elections (Referendum 5884), impose a two-year residency requirement for Memphis mayoral candidates (Referendum 5913), and authorize the city council to determine the salaries of the mayor, council members, the city chief administrative officer, and division directors (Referendum 5893).
All in all, it was a good night for the referenda, as well as for the council itself. And, arguably, for the citizens of Memphis.
Perhaps predictably, the form sheet also held for elective offices, with incumbents of both parties doing very well indeed.
Marsha Blackburn (Photo: United States Senate, Public domain | Wikimedia Commons)
Republican U.S. Senator Marsha Blackburn held off a challenge statewide from Knoxville state Representative Gloria Johnson, her Democratic opponent, though in heavily Democratic Shelby County, Johnson was leading, 156,303 to 104,633.
Another Republican incumbent, 8th District Congressman David Kustoff led Democratic challenger Sarah Freeman by a 2 to 1 margin in Shelby County’s portion of the vote, 66,398 votes to 30,255.
Steve Cohen (Photo: U.S. House of Representatives, Public domain | Wikimedia Commons)
Meanwhile, 9th District Democratic Congressman Steve Cohen was overwhelming his perennial Republican opponent Charlotte Bergman even more dramatically with vote totals in the county of 162,299 to 47,634.
On the legislative scene, the much-ballyhooed District 97 state House race saw Republican incumbent John Gillespie edging out his Democratic challenger Jesse Huseth, 15,859 to 14,600.
John Gillespie (Photo: Courtesy tn.gov)
And, in another state House race where Democrats nursed upset hopes, in District 83, incumbent Republican Mark White held off Democrat Noah Nordstrom, 19,283 to 13,713.
Mark White (Photo: Courtesy tn.gov)
Most attention — locally, nationally, and even worldwide — remained on the showdown between Trump and Harris.
As late as the last weekend before this week’s final vote, the presidential race was being referred to as a dead heat, a virtual tie, a sense of things apparently corroborated by a string of polls in the so-called “battleground” states — the Rust Belt trio of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin; the Sun Belt states of Nevada and Arizona; and the competitive Southern states of Georgia and North Carolina.
A freakish outlier poll in the presumably red state of Iowa showing Harris with a last-minute edge over Trump in Iowa, though, was an indicator of possible unexpected volatility.
That the presidential race had even gotten so measurably close was a reflection of a political standoff in which halves of the nation had seemingly cleaved against each other in a variety of different and sometimes paradoxical ways.
This was not the same old story of Democrats versus Republicans. Both of those coalitions had undergone profound changes over the years. No longer was the “working class” (ditto, the “middle class”) to be grouped in a single body. Upward mobility had revised people’s notions of class, then stalled in such a way as to confuse them further. Generational change was rampant, and ethnicity was no longer a dependable metric for determining political attitude. Disagreement over social matters like gender identity and abortion policy had sundered the old divides.
The center could not hold. It was not only, a la Yeats, that the falcon could not hear the falconer. Social media and impatient ways had created multitudinous new sources professing to be the latter.
The nation’s two-party political system had atrophied to the point that, seemingly, neither was able to generate a dependable bench of A-list players. Donald J. Trump, the Republicans’ once and would-be future president, had come from the worlds of seat-of-the-pants commerce and TV showbiz to reign over a hodgepodge of time-servers, has-beens, and sycophants in his party, and Democratic incumbent president Joe Biden, a survivor of his party’s dwindling corps of traditionalists, headed up the Democrats.
That’s how things were at the end of the early-year primaries, and there were no few voices wondering aloud: Was that all there was, this uninspiring rematch of moldy oldies?
To give Biden his due, he had done his best to wreak from overriding political inertia some promising legislation, especially in the rebuilding of the country’s decaying infrastructure. To give Trump his due, he had recovered from a stupefying series of misdeeds, including, arguably, an aborted coup against the political system, to regain his political stature.
When the two met on a late-June debate stage on the eve of the two party conventions, the 81-year-old Biden, who had fared well in the earlier presentation of his State of the Union address, crumbled so visibly and profoundly that to many, probably most, observers, the presidential race seemed over then and there, especially when the 78-year-old Trump would go on to defiantly survive a serious assassination attempt two days before the opening of the GOP political convention in July.
But desperation in the Democrats’ ranks had meanwhile generated a determination to replace the compromised Biden at the head of the party ticket. Enough pressure developed that the incumbent finally, if reluctantly, had to yield, and realistically, given the lateness of the hour, the most feasible outcome proved to be that of elevating Vice President Kamala Harris, the erstwhile California senator and former prosecutor, in Biden’s stead at the Democratic convention in August.
Once the matchup between Trump and Harris got established, it quickly settled into an even-steven situation, a kind of free-floating draw in which the two sides always stayed within reach of each other.
From the Democratic point of view, this would seem something of a miracle. Nikki Haley had based her runner-up GOP presidential race on the conceit that a female could win the presidency, either herself or, with the aging Biden still a candidate, his vice president, Harris, still regarded at that point as a nonentity. It was Haley’s way of mocking the opposition.
Indeed, even in Democratic ranks, Harris was long seen to be something of a liability, a drag on the ticket. That this was due to the way she had been used — or misused — by the incumbent president (in the ill-defined role of “border czar,” for example) became evident only when she was freed to become her own person.
On the stump in her own right, she proved to be a natural, with unsuspected reserves of charisma and an appeal that was fortified by her selection of the pleasantly homey governor of Minnesota, Tim Walz, as her running mate. (Trump’s choice as potential veep, the edgy Ohio Senator JD Vance, was clearly head-smart and acceptable to Trump’s base among the MAGA faithful but kept bumping up against his own innate arrogance.)
The change in tone among the Democrats was almost instantly evident. It came to be symbolized in the concept of “joy” and in Harris’ slogan, “a new way forward.”
While coming across as a certifiable New Thing, she was also able, credibly, to posit herself as the defender of constitutional values against the alleged schemes by the usurper Trump to override them in the interests of personal power.
“We are the promise of America,” she would say, uniting her own purpose with those of her audience members.
Against this, against Harris, the ebullient rock-star presence on stage, Trump seemed buffaloed. In his fateful June debate duel with Biden, he had seemed vital, a hurricane of restless energy hurling scorn and unchecked charges at his befuddled opponent. Now it became more and more obvious that he, too, was a near octogenarian, with no new promise of his own to offer.
The shift in positions was fully demonstrated, post-conventions, in the follow-up debate with Harris when, matador-like, she had baited the bullish Trump with mockery of his rallies (which, in fact, were becoming more and more disorganized and less and less focused and empty of real content). His red-eyed response, that Haitian immigrants were eating the dogs and cats of Middle Americans in Ohio, was perfectly framed for the television audience by the split image of Harris’ gleeful wonderment at this out-of-nowhere non sequitur.
It was not long afterward that Harris’ progress was slowed somewhat, as much by a petulant media’s insistence that she submit to interviews as a sign of her seriousness as anything else. Dutifully, she did, and emerged with appropriate talking points — a middle-class tax cut, subsidies for small business and new housing starts, and legislation to suppress price-gouging. These would become highlights of the “to-do” list which she would juxtapose against what she characterized as the brooding Trump’s ever-multiplying enemies list.
It became a cliche of press coverage that the former president’s seething ire at an imagined “enemy from within” was displacing what his would-be handlers wanted him to discuss — a supposedly intractable inflation and the pell-mell overcoming of the nation’s borders by a horde of illegal invaders. Both menaces, as it happened, were in something of an abatement — the former by a plethora of relatively rosy economic indices, the latter by fairly resolute, if delayed, executive actions taken by the lame-duck president in the summer and fall.
What Trump’s audiences were getting on the stump instead was the overflow of his ever more naked id, a witches’ brew of resentment and machismo — insults against his adversaries, threats to use the machinery of government against them, and improvisations on themes ranging from Arnold Palmer’s junk size to nostalgia for “the late, great Hannibal Lecter.”
Partly, this was due to what Harris characterized as her opponent’s presumed “exhaustion,” but partly, too, it was Trump’s instinctive reliance on what had always been the source of his appeal, an exposure of pure personality, a willingness, for better or for worse, to let it all hang out, to be The Show, a cathartic vehicle for release of his followers’ emotions.
It was this penchant, after all, that had allowed him to sweep past a stage full of practical Republican politicians during the primary season of 2016 and, later that year, to surprise the calculating and overconfident Hillary Clinton at the polls.
GOP eminences — even those who, like Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell, despised Trump, or, who, like senators Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz, had been vilified by him, learned that they were no match for his carnival-like presence and resolved to use him for their own purposes, only in the end to be used by him instead for his.
It remained a fact that, for all his defects, real and imagined, Trump was able to sustain a plausible hope of regaining the office he had lost to Biden in the pandemic-inflected campaign year of 2020.
And, beyond the presidential race itself, Republicans still nursed hopes of holding onto their slim majority in the House of Representatives as well as of capturing the Senate outright. At stake were such matters as healthcare, climate change, and reproductive policy domestically, as well as of meeting the economic challenge of China and in the conduct of foreign policy in the Middle East and vis-a-vis Russia in its challenge to NATO in Europe.
Democrats Johnson, Huseth at High Point (Photos: Jackson Baker)
As was surely to be expected, the next-to-last weekend of the climactic 2024 election campaign was filled with feverish activity of various kinds — with early voting into its second week and candidates trying to get as many of their partisans as possible to the polls.
A case in point was a pair of events involving Gloria Johnson, the Knoxville Democrat who is trying to unseat incumbent Republican Senator Marsha Blackburn.
Johnson, the state representative who gained national attention last year as a member of the “Tennessee Three” proponents of gun-safety legislation, has raised some $7 million for her bid — almost all of it from in-state sources, she contended proudly.
While that is no match for the incumbent’s $17 million or so, it has been enough to buy Johnson a series of concise and well-produced TV spots pinpointing Blackburn’s alleged shortcomings. And it even gives her some of the kind of influence that politicians call coattails.
Opponents Nordstrom and White at Belly Acres
Johnson was in Shelby County on Saturday, sharing time with two other Democrats, District 83 state House candidate Noah Nordstrom (like Johnson a public schoolteacher) and District 97 House candidate Jesse Huseth.
The first event was a joint rally with Nordstrom and state Democratic chair Hendrell Remus just outside the perimeter of the New Bethel Missionary Baptist early-voting station. Next, Johnson met up with Huseth at High Point Grocery for some joint canvassing efforts, after which Huseth, who opposes GOP incumbent John Gillespie, set out on some door-to-door calls on residents in that western part of his district.
The most unusual pre-election event on Saturday didn’t involve Johnson, nor was it, in the strictest sense, a partisan event at all. It was a meet-and-greet at the Belly Acres restaurant in East Memphis involving both Nordstrom and his GOP adversary, incumbent Republican state Representative Mark White.
Not a debate between the two, mind you. A joint meet-and-greet, at which both candidates circulated among the members of a sizeable crowd, spending conversational time with the attendees and with each other.
The event was the brainchild of one Philip D. Hicks, impresario of something called the Independent Foundation for Political Effectiveness. Hicks says he hopes the Nordstrom-White encounter, his organization’s maiden effort, can serve as a precedent for other such joint candidate efforts to come — presumably in future election seasons.
Inasmuch as political competition is, by its nature, an adversarial process, it’s somewhat difficult to imagine such events becoming commonplace, but, all things considered, this first one went amazingly well.
It wasn’t the same kind of thing at all, but there were elements of such collegiality between potential election opponents at an earlier event, a meeting of the Germantown Democratic Club at Coletta’s on Appling Road during the previous week.
That event included Memphis City Council Chair JB Smiley as its featured speaker, and Smiley, who is reliably reported to be thinking of a race for Shelby County mayor in 2026, spent a fair amount of time comparing notes on public matters (e.g., MLGW, the future of the erstwhile Sheraton Hotel) with attendee J.W. Gibson, a businessman who has basically already declared for that office.
A local study of poverty rates in Memphis and Shelby County confirms what most people, local and otherwise, probably already suppose to be the case.
The incidence of poverty is higher in the city proper than in the county as a whole, and both Memphis and Shelby County have a higher rate of poverty than does Tennessee, while the state itself has a higher incidence of poverty than pertains in the nation.
Poverty as a percentage of population (Photo: Courtesy Delavega and Blumenthal)
The study, entitled 2024 Memphis Poverty Fact Sheet, was prepared by local analysts Elena Delavega and Gregory M. Blumenthal, a husband-and-wife team who undertake annual statistical reports on the incidence of poverty.
If there is a surprise in the study, based on 2020 census figures, it is that poverty rates for non-Hispanic whites are higher in Tennessee at large than in the United States, Shelby County, and the Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) of Memphis.
This might seem to suggest a rising affluence gap between the state’s white residents and its Black and brown residents. It also has implications concerning the effects of out-migration from the Memphis area.
Poverty has increased since last year, the authors find. “This is true for most groups, including children and minorities, but not for whites in Memphis or Shelby County,” they say. “Poverty for non-Hispanic whites has fallen since 2022. It also appears that the population size of non-Hispanic whites in the city of Memphis has dropped more than for other groups, suggesting that those non-Hispanic whites who left were those in poverty.”
It is “not a surprise,” say the authors, that the poverty rate among minorities is higher than among whites. Indeed, they find that structural disparities based on race seem to have accelerated in 2023. “[These] disparities remain and will require deliberate efforts to dismantle. Solving poverty will require regional solutions and regional investments.”
One possible explanation for what seems to be a deepening divide locally is that the labor market in Memphis tends to consist of unskilled workers in the warehouse industry. “The lack of comprehensive, effective, and efficient public transportation also makes progress against poverty quite difficult,” the authors maintain.
“An additional problem has been that of external firms acquiring Memphis housing stock and renting it to Memphians at inflated prices, which makes it almost impossible for local families to afford housing.”
Finally, say the authors, “The divide between the city and the county, as evidenced by the racial and geographical differences in poverty, tends to deprive the city of Memphis of the funds it needs to support the region.”
Apropos the racial divide, the authors note that while Memphis ranks second in overall poverty and first in child poverty among large MSAs (urbanized areas with populations greater than 1,000,000) and second in overall poverty and child poverty among cities with over 500,000 population, it ranks significantly better when only whites are included.
Ranked only by its white population, Memphis is positioned significantly lower in the list, ranking 25th among 54 large MSAs (populations greater than 1,000,000) and 61st among 114 MSAs with populations greater than 500,000.
Ominously, the authors conclude that while the long-term poverty trend provides evidence of the structural nature of poverty in Memphis, five-year trend graphs suggest that disparities are increasing along racial lines.
• Meanwhile, on the eve of the pending presidential election, an equally fraught finding comes from a new poll by the Vanderbilt Project on Unity and American Democracy. The survey, conducted from September 20th to 23rd, based on responses from 1,030 adults across the nation, concludes that most Americans think that democracy is in danger.
More than 50 percent of Americans think that our democracy is “under attack” in the run-up to the election. The Unity Poll is meant to offer “regular snapshots of Americans’ sense of national political unity and their faith in the country’s democratic institutions,” according to Vanderbilt professor John Geer.
