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Memphis Covid-19 Cases Rise From Surge Low

Covid-19 cases are rising again in Shelby County, a trend emerging around the country and the world.

The seven-day rolling average of new cases fell to a Delta-surge record low of 73 on October 31st. That’s about 8.5 percent of the 860 average cases reported daily at the height of summer’s record-high Delta surge in late August. 

(Credit: Shelby County Health Department)

However, the average number of new cases has slowly increased since that low figure set on Halloween. The number was 101 per day a week ago, according to data from the Shelby County Health Department. The figure was 120 on Sunday and on Monday, according to the health department. 

(Credit: Tennessee Department of Health)

Plateaus and slight increases in case counts are being seen across Tennessee. The state hit a Delta-surge low of 548 cases on November 7th. The figure more than doubled to 1,213 on November 12th. That figure fell again to 743 on November 14th, according to data from the Tennessee department of Health. Numbers are plateauing or slightly increasing in every metro across the state.  

(Credit: Tennessee Department of Health)

The increases come as new laws forbid mask or vaccine mandates from some private businesses, schools, and government agencies. Those seeking exemptions form the law can apply at a brand new website from the Tennessee Comptroller’s Office. Gov. Bill Lee signed the legislation last week from a special session of the Tennessee General Assembly. However, a Middle Tennessee judge has temporarily blocked the law on concerns that it might violate the federal Americans with Disabilities Act (ADA). 

(Credit: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention)

The increases seen in Memphis and Tennessee mirror increases seen across the country, bottoming out in late October before starting a gentle rise. Dr. Anthony Fauci, White House chief medical advisor, noted upticks across the country but said there’s good news, and some “challenging news” may need to be addressed this winter. Though, he said vaccinated families should be comfortable gathering this holiday season. 

(Credit: Our World In Data)

The increases are happening around the world and some of them are bringing new mandates and lockdown measures in Germany, France, Austria, and more. 

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TN Dems Urge Governor Lee to Veto Covid Bills

Tennessee Democrats have asked Tennessee governor Bill Lee to veto Covid-19 legislation passed in a special session last week as it “intrudes on the rights of local governments,” threatens $2.5 billion in federal funding, and undermines public health. 

Tennessee Republicans called last week’s special session that ended with key votes early Saturday morning. The “big bill” focused on Covid measures. It banned many (but not all) employers in Tennessee from requiring vaccines or masks. It guaranteed employees in the state unemployment benefits if they had been or will be fired or quit a job for not showing proof of a vaccine. The bill also stripped pandemic mandate powers from six health departments across the state, rolling much of those powers to Nashville. 

In a letter issued, Tuesday afternoon, the state Joint Minority Caucus urged Lee to ”veto the most egregious anti-public health bills passed by Republicans in the most recent extraordinary session of the Tennessee General Assembly.”

 “Governor, we should be a state that respects the role and authority of local governments and a state that promotes public health and protects the rights of those saving lives,” reads the letter. “In addition to undermining the health of our citizens, these extreme measures irresponsibly threaten the rights of voters, cities, counties, schools, and private organizations to sensibly govern themselves.” 

Lee stayed mostly quiet during the special session.  On Friday afternoon, he tweeted, “I commend members of the General Assembly for working to address the Biden Administration’s overreach into our state, our workforce, and our schools. We are evaluating each piece of legislation to ensure we push back on harmful federal policies and do right by Tennesseans.”

After that, Lee’s twitter gave no indication on how he’ll move on the measures. The feed only listed the schedules for upcoming budget hearings and had Lee beefing with the state of Florida’s Chief Financial Officer to win Kid Rock’s affection for an In-N-Out Burger location.  

Democrats said the bill “intrudes on the rights” of local governments, school districts, private businesses, and nonprofits. The move marks “a substantial shift from historical precedent in Tennessee, where we have generally respected the ideal of limited government and enacted bipartisan solutions to promote public health.”

Further, Democrats said the bills “threaten the very existence of the [Tennessee Occupational Safety and Health Administration TOSHA].” They said that, according to the legislature’s fiscal review director, the “legislation jeopardizes $2.5 billion of federal funding from the American Rescue Plan.” 

The Democrats also asked Lee to veto other, non-Covid bills that would strip some prosecution powers from local district attorneys and make partisan local school board elections. 

See the full letter below:

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Average Covid Cases Fall into Double Digits

Covid cases in Shelby County continued a prolonged fall from the record-high figures posted this summer as the Delta variant spread here.

The seven-day rolling average of new cases hit a milestone this week. That average fell below 100 for the first time in many weeks to 90 on Friday.

The lower numbers are the reason the Shelby County Health Department (SCHD) lifted the mask mandate here, in place for several weeks.

Another interesting data point published Friday is the rising number of vaccinations in the county. The daily average of vaccines here rose by hundreds (to 1,853) over the week, likely pushed higher by those getting a third dose of the shot or a booster. So far, 502,463 have been vaccinated in Shelby County. That is 71.8 percent of the total county goal of 700,000.

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Mask Mandate Lifted

Masks are no longer mandatory indoors at businesses, according to the latest health directive from the Shelby County Health Department (SCHD). 

Instead, masks are “highly recommended” and the new rules are effective immediately and will continue until the end of November. The move away from the indoor mask mandate comes “due to the decline in Covid-19 cases reflecting that Shelby County is currently not a high transmission area,” according to the SCHD. Masks are still required, however, for indoor school settings, with some exceptions for teachers for certain teaching purposes.  

Shelby County’s Covid-19 numbers have been decreasing over the past month, and currently the county is not considered a ‘high transmission’ area, according to the CDC.

Shelby County Health Department

“Shelby County’s Covid-19 numbers have been decreasing over the past month, and currently, the county is not considered a ‘high transmission’ area, according to the [Centers for Disease Control and Prevention – CDC],” reads the new directive. “This is due in large part to many businesses and schools who have been providing a safe environment for customers, students, and employees by requiring masks. Due to the decline in the numbers, the department highly recommends that businesses continue to require masks in indoor, public settings.” 

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Mask Mandate Likely to Continue in Next Directive

Hang on to your mask.

Clues dropped about the next Shelby County Health Department (SCHD) directive indicate citizens will be wearing face masks for a little while longer. Dr. Michelle Taylor, the SCHD director, would not divulge specifics about the new directive — or give a direct answer on face masks here — but said her department will use data to make the decision and “we’re not there yet.”

Taylor said about 13,000 Shelby County citizens have not had Covid or the Covid shot and are still vulnerable to infection. Also, about 92,000 children aged 5 to 11 here are not yet eligible for a vaccine. Add them together, and she said about 25 percent — one in four — of the county’s population could still get the virus. 

We are asking people to be patient with us.

Dr. Michelle Taylor, Shelby County Health Department director

“With that in mind,” she said, “we are asking people to be patient with us. We want to protect everyone in the county. We know people are tired of the 19-month marathon but if we keep those mitigation efforts in place a little longer, especially for the upcoming holiday season and we get that 5 to 11 year old age group vaccinated, then we can start to talk about easing restrictions.”    

The clues about a further mask mandate come at a time of a weeks-long fall of just about every Covid data point in Shelby County. The seven-day rolling average of new cases, the reproductive rate of the virus, hospitalizations, and the number of new cases are all falling routinely from the Delta-variant surge this summer. One figure — the weekly positivity rate of new tests — rose this week, Taylor said, but the figure was pushed higher on lower testing volumes. 

The new health directive is expected late next week as the current directive is set to expire.

Taylor said her department is readying for the arrival of vaccine doses for kids aged 5 to 11. SCHD is in constant communication with the Tennessee Department of Health (TDH) on a distribution plan. Just as with the early roll out of the adult vaccine, Tennessee will get an allotment of pediatric doses just like other states. SCHD will be able to pre-order doses “very soon,” Taylor said.

The SCHD has also been working with local businesses in preparation of a proposed federal rule on vaccine mandates. The Occupational Health and Safety Adminstration (OSHA) has proposed a vaccine mandate for all companies with more than 100 employees. She said she’s urged businesses here to talk with their lawyers on the best way to comply with the proposal.  

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Covid Numbers Continue Weeks-Long Fall

One key Covid number is as low now as it was just as the Delta-variant surge began.

The latest weekly average rate of positive Covid-19 tests is 5.5 percent. The number has not been that low since late June (4.4 percent) and early July (7.9 percent).

The number is further proof that Shelby County’s Covid situation is improving from a summer of record-high Covid cases.

The health department is now aware of 1,868 people currently sick with Covid. Of those, 528 are children.

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Data: Wolfchase Has Most Active Covid Cases, Germantown Most Vaccinated

Over the last two weeks, Wolfchase has had the most active Covid-19 cases; the area around Mike Rose Soccer Complex has had the most tests, and Germantown is Shelby County’s most vaccinated city. 

All of this is according to geographic data from the Shelby County Health Department. The data are updated each week and are meant to give rough estimates of the Covid-19 situation here.   

Credit: Shelby County Health Department, as of Tuesday, October 12th

Covid-19 numbers continue to fall in Shelby County, passing Delta-surge milestones on the way down. The seven-day rolling average for new cases fell below 200 this week after a surge high of more than 800. The number was 186 Monday. The number of new daily cases was 94 Tuesday, the first time the figure has been below 100 in many weeks. 

As of Tuesday morning, the health department was aware of 2,299 active cases of the virus in Shelby County. Of those, 666 were in children aged 0-17. 

Credit: Shelby County Health Department

Children (0-17) had the most active cases per capita than any group in Shelby County, according to the data, at 371 per capita. The 35-44 age range had the second highest active cases here at 369 per capita. 

Credit: Shelby County Health Department

More tests have been given in the 38125 ZIP Code in the last two weeks (see above) than anywhere else in Memphis, according to health department data. The area is just west of Collierville and is roughly bordered by the Mike Rose Soccer Complex, Wyndyke Country Club, Riverdale Road, and the Tennessee/Mississippi border. 

In that ZIP Code, 7,456 Covid tests have been given per capita in the last two weeks. The area is followed closely in testing numbers by 38103 (Downtown), 38104 (Midtown), and 38105 (North Downtown and the Pinch District) combined. There, 7,059 Covid tests have been given per capita in the last two weeks. 

Credit: Shelby County Health Department

Over the last two weeks, active Covid cases have been more prevalent in the northern part of the county (see above), in North Memphis, Millington, Arlington, and more. However, the Wolfchase area (38133) is the hottest spot on the map with 382 active cases. Orange Mound (38114) has had the fewest active cases in the last two weeks with 122 cases reported there. 

Credit: Shelby County Health Department

Germantown is the vaccination champion of Shelby County (see above), the data show. The vaccine rate for 38139 and 38138 since shots have been available is 74,864.1 per 100,000 people. The city has just barely out-vaccinated residents of East Memphis, though. There, (in 38117) 67,9111 residents per 100,000 have been vaccinated. Ranking third, is Collierville with 67,018 residents per 100,000 being vaccinated.  

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New Health Order Keeps Masks, Despite Falling Numbers

While Shelby County Covid numbers are falling, a new health directive keeps masks in place, and tells some businesses to be ready to implement mandatory vaccines or weekly testing. 

The new health order comes as several major events occurred since the previous order. Cases have declined. Booster shots are available for some. Masks are, once again, mandated in schools here. Vaccine or testing mandates are expected. Pfizer is seeking approval to use its vaccine in children over age 5.     

Here’s how the Shelby County Health Department characterizes the area’s current Covid situation: 

“Shelby County is beginning to experience a small decline in Covid-19 cases, and while this gives reason to hope, the best way to continue on this path is to remain vigilant in our efforts to combat the disease. Generally speaking, this means: Get vaccinated. Wear a mask. Stay home if you are sick. 

“The danger in letting down our guard right now is that we experience a plateau in cases followed by another surge. The most troubling aspect of this surge is the impact on children and the marked increase in pediatric cases compared to last year. This is why masking in schools, with appropriate exceptions, is a must. The department considers in-person learning a vital element of education and pediatric health.

”Shelby County is still considered by the [Centers for Disease Control and Prevention – CDC] to be an area with a high rate of community transmission of Covid-19. In large part, this is due to the low percentage of vaccinated people in the county and in Tennessee. Vaccination is the most important strategy to prevent severe illness and death.”

One substantial change in the new order is that businesses and schools must report positive cases to the health department within 24 hours. Another new change requires businesses and schools to post signs reading “mask required” at their entrances. 

The new order also taps some business owners to be ready should new vaccine and testing rules be issued from the Occupational Safety and Health Adminstration (OSHA), as is expected. 

“Employers with 100 or more employees should prepare for a new emergency temporary standard from [OSHA] requiring them to mandate that all employees be vaccinated against Covid-19 or else undergo weekly testing,” reads the order. “Please consult with your legal counsel about coverage and implementation of the emergency standard.” 

The new order is set to expire on Sunday, October 31st. It can be changed or renewed depending on changes in the county’s case rate, hospital capacity, or vaccination rate. 

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Cost, Complexity At Heart of Judge’s Ruling on Shelby Mask Mandate

One reason a federal judge struck down Gov. Bill Lee’s mask opt-out order in Shelby County is that students wearing face masks in school is more efficient, easier, and cheaper than Lee’s plan to protect disabled students.

U.S. District Court Judge Sheryl Lipman’s Friday ruling says that Shelby County’s mask mandate for students is legal. The ruling strikes down Lee’s order that allowed parents to opt their children out of the mandate. This means that all students will have to wear a mask at school in Shelby County starting Monday. 

Lee’s opt-out order was delivered in mid-August. Legal challenges to it rose later from Shelby County and private attorneys working for disabled school children at greater risk of Covid’s effects than most. Attorneys said those student could not safely return to school with other maskless students. On these complaints, Lipman had temporarily halted Lee’s order earlier this month, but the order was set to expire Friday. 

The new order states plainly, “schools cannot implement adequate health measures to ensure Plaintiffs’ access to school with the executive order in place.” The “unmasked presence” of other students “creates the danger to these plaintiffs.” 

The order reads that local school boards won’t be able to give these disabled students reasonable accommodation to keep them from harm. Lee’s order, it says, eliminated Shelby County’s mask mandate “to create more costly and complex measures to protect every child with a disability.”

Lipman said Lee and members of his adminstration have said publicly that masks reduce the transmission of Covid-19. Mask requirements were already in place in Shelby County with set-ups for classrooms, hallways, cafeterias, school buses, libraries, and P.E. classes — none of which would need to be changed with the existing mandate. 

To do it Lee’s way and individualize processes and supports for disabled students could possibly come with new facilities like larger gyms or outdoor seating areas. It could also call for more teachers to monitor masked and unmasked students, as well as complex policies and schedules for moving between classes or to school buses. All of these could change, too, if parents change their minds on masking their children.

”The accumulation of costs, alternative schedules, and other changes stands in stark contrast to the cost-effective, minimally burdensome requirement for children to wear masks when at school,” Lipman’s order reads.     

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Covid: Weekly Positive Rate Falls For Fourth Week Straight

The weekly average of positive Covid tests fell again last week for the fourth week in a row, according to Friday data from the Shelby County Health Department.

The figure is one indicator that the peak of the summer, Delta-variant surge could be behind the Memphis area. Another indicator, the seven-day rolling average of new cases fell this week from just over an average 700 new cases per day to just over 600 average new cases reported per day.

Active Covid cases continue to fall. As of Friday morning, 6,281 people were known to the health department to be Covid-positive. That figure includes 2,091 pediatric cases. The overall active case count was over 7,000 last week.