Tag: Trade

Categories
Beyond the Arc Sports

Around the Web: Outside Reaction to the Rudy Gay Deal

After posting my initial reaction to the trade late last night/early this morning, I decided to take in some other reactions before giving it a second take myself. And if I’m going to read this stuff, I might as well pass it on.

A couple of general thoughts about national reaction: I think that if you have your own informed opinions you shouldn’t put too much emphasis on outside declarations or conventional wisdom. The Pau Gasol trade was almost universally panned. I thought it was a rational and reasonable move. I was proven correct. Here, the consensus is much more in line with my thinking. But we could all be wrong. Maybe this “not great but makes sense” deal will end up being a disaster instead.

It’s also probably telling that the writers most optimistic about the deal from the Grizzlies perspective are analysis-oriented types who concentrate on thinking about the game. The writers most pessimistic about the deal from the Grizzlies perspective seemed to be conventional reporter types whose work is more rooted in being a conduit for front-office sources. Doesn’t mean one perspective is inherently more worthwhile than the other, but I do find that split compelling.

Anyway, here’s an annotated guide to my morning reading. I’ll wade into the deal again from some new or deeper angles later in the day and will be on “The Chris Vernon Show” at 1 p.m. to talk about it.

Categories
Beyond the Arc Sports

First Take: Questions and Answers on the Rudy Gay Deal

Rudy_Gay.jpg

Wednesday afternoon, the Grizzlies pulled off the most momentous transaction since jettisoning Pau Gasol, dealing current leading scorer and franchise games-played leader Rudy Gay, along with cult hero Hamed Haddadi, in a three-team deal that brought back young power forward Ed Davis and a 2013 second-round pick from the Toronto Raptors and small forwards Tayshaun Prince and Austin Daye from the Detroit Pistons.

There are copious angles to consider with this deal, but let’s try — as quickly as possible — to give an initial reaction to many of them, in question-and-answer form. I’ll wade into some of these issues more, with more time for reflection, in the coming days. But here’s my first impression:

Is this really the best the Grizzlies could do?

Apparently so. While the Grizzlies gave up the highest-wattage player in the deal, they also checked most of the boxes on their wishlist:

Obtain a significant younger player on a good contract: Ed Davis, check.
Add a draft pick: Toronto’s second-rounder this summer, likely to be in the 35-45 range, check.
Add a replacement small forward on a more manageable contract: Tayshaun Prince, check.
Clean up payroll to enable flexibility under the tax going forward: Check.

Even accomplishing all that, it’s hard to get excited about the deal. Prince, at age 32, with three years left on his deal, is a less attractive wing replacement than seemed to be the realistic ideal. (My version of realistic ideal: Jared Dudley.) Davis, while a great get as a general asset, will likely have less of an immediate impact based on available minutes than a similarly productive wing player would have. And the second-rounder is not the kind of draft pick people — including the Grizzlies — had in mind.

The inability of the Grizzlies to get a first-rounder in a deal for Gay may suggest how much the confluence of Gay’s massive contract and sluggish production has impacted his trade value. Toronto, it should be noted, could not have given the Grizzlies a first-round pick for 2013, since their pick this summer may be owed to Oklahoma City. As a result, a first-rounder from Toronto couldn’t have come until at least 2015. But apparently the Grizzlies weren’t able to get a first-rounder in any deals they considered otherwise viable.

Though there’s definitely risk of further decline for Prince over the remaining years of his contract — I would fear the third year may have value only as an expiring-contract trade chip — this deal is preferable to what it would have been without a third team, which wouldn’t have addressed replacing Gay at small forward.

Categories
Sports Sports Feature

Don’t Do It

CREDIT: Larry Kuzniewski

Question: What’s been the most under-acknowledged story about the Memphis Grizzlies this season?

Answer: Pau Gasol’s improvement.

No, really — I mean it.

Gasol certainly hasn’t done himself any favors. From the obnoxious tendency to deliver very different messages to the Spanish media than he does to the local press to his wavering on-court enthusiasm and at-times terrible defensive regressions to his ill-conceived trade request, Gasol’s wounds this season are mostly self-inflicted.

Breaking his foot while playing for his national team this summer fed already lingering resentments and set the stage for a lost season. Losing doesn’t put people in much of a mood to see improvements, especially in those they blame for the losing. And Gasol’s limited minutes coming off the foot injury have kept his per-game averages from being as eye-popping as they might be.

But, however subtle, the advancements in Gasol’s already impressive set of skills have been tangible and significant. Fans (and, more importantly, decision-makers in the front office and ownership box) need to digest them before helping Gasol pack his bags.

To put Gasol’s production in a more helpful context, translate his averages this season (in 33 minutes per game) into the 39.1 minutes he averaged last season. The result: 24 points, 10 rebounds, 4 assists, and 2.5 blocks a game.

Gasol’s rebound rate, despite coming off a broken foot, is the best of his career (though still mediocre for a 7-foot center). His shot-blocking rate is the highest of his career. And, most meaningful of all, Gasol’s perimeter shooting is dramatically better.

Gasol is shooting 47 percent on perimeter shots this season after falling under 40 percent every other season of his career. And this improvement doesn’t look like a fluke, because his shooting mechanics seem to have evolved. In the past, Gasol had a tendency to move his left hand off the ball early, resulting in a one-handed, shot-put-like release. Gasol’s form looks more textbook, and he’s been much more confident — less tentative — with the shot.

As a result, Gasol is shooting 57 percent from the floor this season — fifth best in the league — despite taking 54 percent of his shots from the perimeter. To put that in context, none of the four players ahead of Gasol in this category has taken even 40 percent of his shots from outside the paint.

What’s most encouraging is that these improvements are far more likely to carry over into next season than Gasol’s defensive decline. A lack of lateral quickness and bulk will keep Gasol from ever being a quality defender, but his decline from adequate to bad this season seems to be the result of intensity, focus, and team-wide defensive problems. Intensity and focus will be easier to come by in a season where the team is playing for more than ping-pong balls. And the team defense is certain to improve via a combination of personnel changes and solidifying the coaching situation.

Given that Gasol is a 26-year-old 7-footer who is already an All-Star caliber player, isn’t a locker-room or off-court problem, and is showing signs of making a significant leap forward, the Grizzlies should be very reticent about dealing him.

The most reasonable trades rumored for Gasol are ones that would combine a quality young player (Chicago’s Ben Gordon and Luol Deng have been the most prominently mentioned), a draft pick, and a cap-room creating contract.

A deal of this kind could work out for the Grizzlies, but the contingencies are daunting. Any key player the Grizzlies acquire is likely to be less valuable than Gasol and eligible for free agency before Gasol’s contract runs out. Draft picks and cap room are dependent on making good picks and smart signings, and if history shows anything, it’s that the draft is a crap shoot and free agency comes with more risks than rewards. What if that pick/cap-room combo turns into Troy Bell and Brian Cardinal?

Unless financial considerations are dictating a bad basketball decision, the best course for the Grizzlies is to resist Gasol’s trade request and wait until the league’s draft lottery is conducted this summer. At that point, with a good idea of what they’re getting in the draft, the Grizzlies’ organization should ask itself two questions: Is Pau Gasol a good fit for the future, and has Gasol changed his mind about wanting to be traded? If the answer to either question is no, then get the best deal you can. The prospect of combining Gasol with elite center prospect Greg Oden trumps anything a trade right now can bring. Closing off that potential future could be a huge mistake.