Are the Memphis Tigers a legitimate Top-10 team, Final Four contenders? Or are they the biggest teasers east of the Dallas Cowboys? Nineteen games into the 2023-24 season, it seems the answer to one of these questions will ultimately be in the affirmative.
Sunday’s loss at Tulane — the Green Wave’s first upset of a Top-25 team since the Clinton presidency — changed the Tigers’ season, and compounded last Thursday’s loss at home to USF. A team that started the week undefeated in a less-than-respected American Athletic Conference now has a two-game losing streak and, worse, merely 12 regular-season games left to improve its resume for those who hand out seeds for the NCAA tournament. Memphis, you might note, has never reached the Sweet 16 seeded lower than sixth.
Last Thursday night at FedExForum could have been an anomalous nadir. With the arena virtually empty — the university publicly urged fans to stay home and off the icy roads — Memphis looked all of its number-10 ranking in taking a 20-point lead into the second half. Then they seemed to hit black ice as a unit and allowed USF to storm back, tie the game with less than a minute to play, and win the contest on a Kasean Pryor free throw with five seconds to play. (There’s brutal irony in a team from South Florida knocking off the Tigers while fans were home dripping their faucets.) The Tigers’ late-game hero Jahvon Quinerly committed a turnover in the game’s closing seconds and missed a desperation three-point attempt at the buzzer. If empty seats could boo, they would have.
The loss was especially bizarre, as it came four days after Memphis looked like their predecessors from 2008 or 1985, both Final Four years. The Tigers scored 112 points in beating Wichita State, the most on the road for this program in 69 years. Against USF, they couldn’t crack 80. The Tigers drained 19 three-pointers in overwhelming the Shockers, a program record. Against the Bulls, they missed 22 of their 28 shots from long range. Memphis lost despite outscoring USF 42-18 in the paint and 21-2(!) on fast breaks. The numbers don’t make sense, but the loss is permanent and will cost Memphis its spot in that hallowed Top 10.
As long as Quinerly and David Jones remain healthy, the Tigers will enter March with an arsenal most teams — “power conference” or otherwise — would envy. Jones (21.7 points per game) is the leading candidate for AAC Player of the Year. Right behind him may well be Quinerly (14.0 points, 4.7 assists). Were it not for Quinerly’s game-winning treys against Tulsa and SMU, the Tigers might have a losing record in league play. Jones took a three-point shot that could have won Sunday’s game at Tulane. He missed, as stars sometimes do. How will the Tigers process two straight gut punches as they wait a week before returning to play (Sunday at UAB)?
Following the Tigers’ narrow escape against SMU on January 7th, Hardaway emphasized the joy he took in seeing his team improve while winning. Beats the “learn from our losses” track every day of the week. And the Tigers are certainly better for their recent 10-game winning streak. But Hardaway also suggested this group of veteran transfers may actually be too confident, that they feel like any obstacle or deficit can be overcome, and this can sometimes compromise group effort. A home loss to a team with a NET rating of 146, you gotta believe, might help reduce that overconfidence intangible.
Another intangible to track with these Tigers: team chemistry. Following the USF loss, Hardaway suggested internal strife was impacting who he could put on the floor and when. If this is the case (more than two months into the season), the likelihood of a full recovery — let alone a Final Four run — seems remote. The sixth-year coach may have the greatest challenge of his career on his hands: Getting the most out of a talented team before the players on that team sabotage the mission. That would be a cruel tease, indeed.
