Now that we’ve put a cap on last season, time to look ahead to the summer, where the Grizzlies have one big decision to make. But first, where the roster stands headed into the off-season:
ROSTER RECAP
Under Contract:
Rudy Gay
Est. Salary: $16,460,532
Coming back from the first serious injury of his career, Gay followed an up-and-down season with an up-and-down playoff debut: He followed bad stretches — particularly in the first halves of Games 3 and 4 — with good stretches. He overcame early struggles to make big plays in the fourth quarter of every game except for Game 7, where he was the Grizzlies most effective player for three quarters and was then a non-factor in the fourth. Aside from perhaps an efficient Game 2, where he did most of his work early, Gay never really put a full game together in these playoffs. It was that kind of season. In large part, it’s been that kind of career. Gay is a second-tier player with a first-tier contract and though he can still fine-tune aspects of his game and learn from his first taste of post-season intensity, that reality isn’t going to change in any meaningful way.
But, because Gay’s struggles can tend to be more frustrating than those of most players, I think the criticism tends to get a little one-sided. Increasingly, a segment of the fan base looks at Gay the way many think Lionel Hollins looks at Tony Allen or the dearly departed Greivis Vasquez: Fixating on the negatives while downplaying the positives. A few facts to put Gay’s playoff debut and regular season in context: Gay had the second-best +/- rating among Grizzlies players in the series (after Tony Allen) and had a better shooting percentage than Zach Randolph (including a significantly better shooting percentage from inside the three-point arc). Despite some rough shooting stretches, Gay’s scoring efficiency in the series (based on points scored per shot attempt) was higher than any perimeter player except Vasquez (who averaged 11 minutes) from last season’s playoff run. He had the sixth-highest PER among small forwards in the NBA this season. Warts and all, Gay’s playoff debut was far from the disaster some made it out to be and he’s very close to being a Top 5 player in the league at his position.
If the Grizzlies trade Rudy Gay this summer — and you can make a very strong case that they should — it will be for financial, not performance, reasons.
Zach Randolph
Est. Salary: $16,500,000
Despite his protestations to the contrary, Randolph was not capable of putting up a 30-20 game in these playoffs. But he rebounded well, scored well in stretches, and, even with Randolph in a diminished capacity, the Grizzlies were a better team when he was on the floor. The only question going into next season is whether Randolph can get all the way back to his pre-injury form. And though there’s no guarantee until it actually happens, most people around the team seem optimistic on this front. Randolph’s knee injury healed without surgery and he returned to a reasonable level of effectiveness on schedule. He’s still relatively young — he’ll turn 31 this summer — and his game has never been predicated on leaping or explosiveness. The odds seem good that an off-season of conditioning work will return Randolph to something close to last season’s peak form. If so, he’ll return to his rightful place as the Grizzlies’ offensive alpha dog next season regardless of what other moves the team makes.
