Yet they both
survive, eventually finding
a voice and a leader to catch the swinging pendulum of American
politics, and rise to power again. So I think reports of the
death of the Republican Party are premature.
There is, however, a clear message in Pennsylvania senator Arlen
Specter deciding to walk across the aisle from his political home of
over three decades and take a seat among Democrats in the U.S. Senate.
The Republican Party has lost the plot. They don’t get how much the
world has changed. The last Republican revolution that brought the
party to power in Congress and fueled eight years of a George W. Bush
presidency came to define a party orthodoxy that can no longer muster
widespread support.
Newt Gingrich, and Karl Rove after him, devised a sophisticated
strategy that built on a religious-conservative base and attracted
moderates, independents, and conservative Democrats frustrated with the
angst of the Clinton years. Throughout the two terms of the Bush
administration, that moderate margin slowly turned against the rhetoric
that kept the Republican base enthusiastic. Republican leadership chose
to ignore those changing attitudes, clinging to social-issue litmus
tests and mindless repetition of rhetoric from the closing days of the
last century.
As President Obama’s approval numbers continue to stay strong
through what has seemed more like the first 100 crises than the first
100 days, most Republican leaders have continued a one-note, tone-deaf
chorus of criticism. It goes far beyond Rush Limbaugh’s
audience-rating-building rants or Dick Morris’ predictions that the
president is doomed to failure. Those messages may reinforce the base,
but they fall on deaf ears among the moderate middle.
More damaging to the party is the directionless opposition from
Republican congressional leadership. It has sent a clear message to
moderate America that the GOP is completely out of touch. While voters
continue to be concerned about the future and have some misgivings
about the specifics of Obama’s policies, they consistently give the
president high marks for taking on a huge agenda of domestic and
foreign-policy problems. The president seems vital, optimistic, open,
and on top of things. The Republican leaders appear to be constant
critics with no good alternatives to offer.
This comparison is taking a toll on the GOP. According to a new
Democracy Corps poll, Democrats now have an eight-point advantage over
Republicans on partisan identification. Only 18 percent of the
electorate now consider themselves “strong Republicans” — a
dangerously low number. The Republican “brand” is hovering in General
Motors and AIG territory these days. The party has a 31 percent
favorable to 46 percent unfavorable rating — a net negative of 15
points.
That is hardly the foundation on which to build a Republican
resurgence. Stan Greenburg is unabashedly partisan, and his Democracy
Corps poll reports always cite the good news for Democrats. Still, he
is a professional and one of the best in the business. His 2010 vote
test in congressional races shows Democrats with a 10-point advantage
in a question that used actual names, not just a generic
identification. Worse news for Republicans are his results from the 40
most vulnerable congressional districts: President Obama is trusted to
do a better job than Republicans by 16 points on the economy, 24 points
on health care, and 27 points on energy policy. Those numbers don’t
necessarily reflect vulnerable-district voters’ love of Obama’s
policies but that they believe he actually has some, while Republicans
do not.
In this context, Specter’s bolt across the aisle becomes more than
an act of political self-preservation. Specter is part of a historic
tradition of moderate Republicanism that once dominated the Northeast.
Dubbed “Rockefeller Republicans” in the early ’60s, these independent
thinkers have slowly been forced out of the party over the last two
decades. As Senator Olympia Snowe (R-Maine), one of the last moderates
standing, wrote after Specter’s move, she often feels like a cast
member of Survivor: “You are presented with multiple challenges,
and you often get the distinct feeling you are no longer welcome in the
tribe.”
Arlen Specter has always been a survivor. The message of his
departure is that the Republican Party has to enlarge what is now a
tiny tent to make room for those who share the party’s historic
moderate principles but don’t pass muster with the Southern, talk-show
base now in control. If not, others will follow Specter to the
exit.
Ben Goddard was behind the “Harry and Louise” campaign that
galvanized opinion against the Clinton health-care plan in 1994. He is
a founding partner of political consultants GC Strategic Advocacy.
