I love the Academy Awards. They are like a religious holiday for me and have been ever since the first Oscar-cast I remember watching: the 1987 ceremony that honored Cher as Best Actress for Moonstruck and “(I’ve Had) The Time of My Life” from
Dirty Dancing as Best Song. I get very involved in the politics of who wins, who doesn’t, and why, and I become obsessed with what I perceive as crimes against art when the wrong person wins or when the right person wins for the wrong thing. For instance, I was miffed back in 1991 when Anthony Hopkins won Best Actor for The Silence of the Lambs over Robin Williams in The Fisher King and Nick Nolte in The Prince of Tides — /I>both of whom I shortsightedly didn’t think had more nominations in them and gave superior leading performances. The Oscars, are, after all, glorified popularity contests that juggle sentiment, innovation, and sometimes excellence. Anyway, these are the things that I think about come award time, and this is the mindset with which I complicatedly compile my predictions for this year’s winners and bemoan those films unadorned by Oscar’s sweet, golden kiss.
The Nominees
Best Picture: Chicago, Gangs of New York, The Hours, The Pianist, The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers
Let us immediately discount The Two
Towers. The first Lord of the Rings was an impressive achievement, and the sequel is merely a continuation
— less its own film than it is a second act. Gangs of New
York, Martin Scorsese’s much-anticipated but critically mixed pet project, is too bloated and uneven
to be considered the finest in this category. If nothing else, the extreme violence and not entirely patriotic bent will alienate squeamish voters.
Chicago may be reviving the movie musical, but it does nothing to reinvent.
Should win: The Hours.
Will win: Chicago, in a victory of style over
substance.
Far from nominated: Far from
Heaven, which managed to combine daring, stylish vision with substantive and heartbreaking perception.
Best Actress: Salma Hayek,
Frida; Nicole Kidman, The Hours; Diane Lane,
Unfaithful; Julianne Moore, Far from
Heaven; Renée Zellweger, Chicago
Out of the running: Hayek. She was great in
Frida, if not astonishing, and the nomination is enough to reward her years-long quest to get the
movie made. Also, probably out of it: Lane.
Unfaithful was released in May, and the buzzier buzz surrounding the other women will probably overshadow
her, though her performance as the all-too contented housewife is the stuff that superstars are made of: strong, vulnerable, unafraid. I would have taken
Zellweger out of consideration, except that she just won the Screen Actors Guild award and many of the same people vote for both. And she sings, dances, and acts.
Should win: Lane, who gives the best performance and who’s been paying dues since 1979.
Will win: Kidman, by a nose.
Finest hours: Nonnominated Meryl Streep, the best of the bunch and a conspicuous
omission.
Best Actor: Adrien Brody, The
Pianist; Nicolas Cage, Adaptation; Michael
Caine, The Quiet American; Jack Nicholson,
About Schmidt; Daniel Day-Lewis, Gangs of New York
Brody, the relative unknown, will not win but will hopefully ride this nomination to better recognition and high-profile projects. Cage, not for
all tastes, gives two not-for-all-tastes performances in a film that is — well, you know. Caine won recently for
The Cider House Rules and needs no further
Oscars for clout. This is a match between Nicholson and Day-Lewis.
Should win: Daniel Day-Lewis.
Will win: Jack Nicholson.
Undeveloped: Nonnodded Robin Williams in
One Hour Photo, who, in a more thorough transformation than Nicholson, buried his worst
Robin-isms in order to concoct the harrowing, sympathetic Sy the Photo
Guy.
Best Supporting Actress: Kathy
Bates, About Schmidt; Julianne Moore, The
Hours; Queen Latifah, Chicago; Catherine Zeta-Jones,
Chicago; Meryl Streep, Adaptation
Gone: Latifah, whose nomination is thanks enough and whose contribution to the film is outclassed by other nominees. Gone: Bates, who is
wonderful in Schmidt (and nude as a bee!) but has no Oscar Moment and is merely delightful. Gone: Moore, though she gives the most sensitive work in the
category and is one of the most challenging performers working today. This is between Streep (at 13 career nominations, the Queen) and Zeta-Jones, who gives
her film All That Jazz and dances like a demon.
Should win: Moore.
Will win: La Dame Streep, for this and, unofficially,
The Hours.
Gratefully nonnominated: Cameron Diaz,
Gangs of New York. I would like to thank the Academy
Best Supporting Actor: Chris
Cooper, Adaptation; Ed Harris, The
Hours; Paul Newman, Road to Perdition; John C.
Reilly, Chicago; Christopher Walken, Catch Me If You Can
If Ed Harris wins, it will be for his excellent (if brief)
Hours work and for years of nominated, awardable work. If Reilly wins, it is because he
was great in Chicago. If Newman wins, it’s for his against-type thuggery and for six decades of consistently fine work. If Walken wins, it will bridge a 25-year
gap between this and his previous win, 1978’s The Deer
Hunter.
Should win: Cooper.
Will win: Cooper.
And the Bizarro-Land Academy Award goes to: Charlton Heston, as the Alzheimer’s-stricken NRA president who turns his back on the picture of
a slain child in Bowling for Columbine. Can you get an Oscar for a nonfiction performance?
Best Director: Pedro
Almodovar, Talk to Her; Stephen Daldry, The
Hours; Rob Marshall, Chicago; Roman Polanski,
The Pianist; Martin Scorsese, Gangs of New York
This category, unfortunately, probably belongs to Scorsese — for the least-interesting film in the category and for his least-compelling work in
years. But he has gone undernominated and unawarded for so many years and for so many good films that the academy will feel obligated to reward him for
this sprawling mess of a movie. This rules out the delicate, almost musical work of
The Hours‘ Daldry, Spanish mainstay Almodovar’s unconventionally
compelling craft, and Polanski’s masterpiece, The
Pianist. Since Polanski, is still dodging the cops for a 1977 statutory-rape conviction, the academy may
have reservations about awarding an evasive felon. The only other real contender is Marshall.
Should win: Polanski.
Will win: Scorsese.
Fallen from grace: Todd Haynes for
Far from Heaven, whose meticulous work, in short, was equal parts homage and innovation.
