With the final poll, the one to be taken of all voters on
Election Day, Thursday, October 4th, just around the bend, late
sampling taken by established local pollsters provide some clue as to what the
portents are.
Berje Yacoubian, whose well-established Yacoubian Research
firm has taken the measure of numerous significant elections over the last few
decades, has provided The Flyer with exclusive use of the tables and
results of a mayoral poll taken over a four-day period, with polling itself
undertaken on Thursday night, September 20th, and Monday night,
September 24th.
Some 395 respondents across various age, racial, and
neighborhood lines were asked a variety of questions, and pollster Yacoubian
reckons the degree of accuracy to be plus or minus 4.8 percent.
The bottom-line results: Respondents stated their
preferences in this order – Herenton, 30 percent; Chumney, 28 percent; Morris,
21 percent; Willingham, 2 percent; undecided, 18 percent; none of the above, 1
percent.
Chumney, it would seem, is maintaining the viable position,
at or near the lead, that she has held in a variety of polls going back to the
spring. Morris appears to have broadened his support since those earlier polls,
while Willingham has not managed to gain much ground.
Almost as telling are the results in other categories.
Asked to evaluate the prior job performance of the candidates on a scale ranging
from poor to excellent, councilwoman Chumney led the others with 40 percent
rating her excellent or above average, followed by Morris with 33 percent in
that category, Herenton with 31 percent; and Willingham with 15 percent.
\Incumbent mayor Herenton was rated as superior to the
others on the scale of his ability to foster economic development, with a rating
of 32 percent to Chumney’s 28 percent to Morris’ 20 percent to 1 percent for
Willingham.
Chumney leads the others as most likely to produce good
results for education, with 36 percent, compared to former schools
superintendent Herenton’s 29 percent and Morris’ 13 percent, and Willingham’s 2
percent.
Perhaps most surprisingly, Chumney, who has produced a
15-point crime plan, is rated best on that score, with 26 percent preferring
her, to 24 percent for Herenton, whose Blue Crush plan is now in effect, to 20
percent for Morris, and 1 percent for Willingham.
(Willingham’s relatively unimpressive showings may reflect
voter uncertainty rather than disapproval, with a whopping 42 percent of
respondents recording themselves as “not sure” about his job performance,
compared to 22 percent for both Morris and Chumney and only 3 percent in that
category for the mayor.)
Interestingly, a resurgent Morris led the other candidates
when the question was, Who would be your second choice? He garnered 29 percent
to 26 for Chumney, 7 for Willingham, and only 5 for Herenton.
An additional poll question asked voters for their attitude
toward amending the city charter to mandate a two-term (8-year) limit for both
the mayor and members of the city council. A convincing 71 percent approved the
change, with 17 opposing it and 12 percent uncertain.
Percentage-wise, the sample of those polled broke down this
way: African-American females, 35 percent; white females, 25 percent, and 20
percent apiece for both white males and African-American males.
Age-wise, the voters sampled were predominantly in the
category of 35 to 64 years old, with 56 percent. Next came those 65 or older, 33
percent; and, finally, voters aged 34 and under, 10 percent.
The methodology of the poll assumes these breakdowns to be
as close as possible to the ratios obtained in actual elections in recent
years.
For the complete results, check links below.
Yacoubian Results
Yacoubian Summary
Yacoubian Addendum
Yacoubian Methodology
Yacoubian Crosstabulation
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